The Hotel End

The Hotel End => Cobblers Corner => Topic started by: Cobbler78 on September 12, 2017, 22:40:16 pm



Title: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 12, 2017, 22:40:16 pm
Top half team 0 points in 4 games (0pts per game)
Bottom half teams - 6 points in 2 games (3pts per game)

Projection 69points (7th-10th)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on September 12, 2017, 22:46:16 pm
Shrewsbury were even below us in the table when we played them. Definitely bottom half.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on September 12, 2017, 22:49:07 pm
Here we go again.

There's no easy games


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 12, 2017, 22:57:53 pm
Here we go again.

There's no easy games

And yet, the facts say otherwise, just like they did last season. I'll bet anyone on here that come the end of the season, we pick up more points per game against the teams below us than those above us. You know why, because they are easier.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on September 12, 2017, 23:09:13 pm
 ;D ;D

Basket case is back


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on September 12, 2017, 23:14:23 pm
And yet, the facts say otherwise, just like they did last season. I'll bet anyone on here that come the end of the season, we pick up more points per game against the teams below us than those above us. You know why, because they are easier.

Do they have to be below us when we play them, or below us come the end of the season?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 12, 2017, 23:17:51 pm
Do they have to be below us when we play them, or below us come the end of the season?

End of the season. Fancy a tenner that I'm right?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 12, 2017, 23:18:57 pm
;D ;D

Basket case is back

£10? Put your money where your mouth is if you think I'm wrong.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 12, 2017, 23:23:15 pm
What we really need is some sort of points system based on matches played which can clearly distinguish between the better teams and the worse teams.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: exiledinspace on September 13, 2017, 02:04:37 am
http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/league-one/table


Marble.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 13, 2017, 07:15:43 am
Top half team 0 points in 4 games (0pts per game)
Bottom half teams - 6 points in 2 games (3pts per game)

Projection 69points (7th-10th)
JED 0 points in 4 games (0pts per game)
JFH - 6 points in 2 games (3pts per game)

August 0 points in 4 games (0pts per game)
September - 6 points in 2 games (3pts per game)

Pre Hurricane Irma 0 points in 4 games (0pts per game)
Post Hurricane Irma - 6 points in 2 games (3pts per game)

Games I went to* 0 points in 4 games (0pts per game) (*home games only)
Games I haven't been to - 6 points in 2 games (3pts per game)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on September 13, 2017, 07:44:21 am
So if it's based on the position at the end of the season, you don't know if they were 'easier' games when you actually play them. Could go down to the last game of the season to find out if that opener against Shrews was easy or not.  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on September 13, 2017, 07:48:36 am
End of the season. Fancy a tenner that I'm right?
Lol.
So if they have to be below us at the end of the season how the fcuk can you state now that there are easier games to come?
We might be about to play the six teams that end up in positions one to six.

You're playing one game with two footballs again Cobbler78  ;)



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on September 13, 2017, 07:50:25 am
So if it's based on the position at the end of the season, you don't know if they were 'easier' games when you actually play them. Could go down to the last game of the season to find out if that opener against Shrews was easy or not.  ;D
Beat me to it.  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 13, 2017, 08:05:12 am
And yet, the facts say otherwise, just like they did last season. I'll bet anyone on here that come the end of the season, we pick up more points per game against the teams below us than those above us. You know why, because they are easier.

I will take this bet on one condition.

You allow me to bet with you on who will win the league, after the final game has been played, at the odds from the start of the season!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on September 13, 2017, 08:07:21 am
Southend is an easier game on Saturday, unless they beat us and become one of the harder teams.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on September 13, 2017, 08:18:41 am
And yet, the facts say otherwise, just like they did last season. I'll bet anyone on here that come the end of the season, we pick up more points per game against the teams below us than those above us. You know why, because they are easier.

Where did last night's game fit into this then?  Portsmouth are bottom half of the table so it must be an easier game. But they are above us in the table so it must be a harder game  ???


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: clarkeysntfc on September 13, 2017, 08:37:01 am
Please can we close this thread and spare everyone this BS.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobblersmad on September 13, 2017, 09:17:50 am
I think October is our easiest month of fixtures tbh. Brizzle Rovers, Dale, Dons, Gills and Blackpool, all of which I'd say are similar to us. If we can escape this month by collecting up a few more points then October is a great way for us to really see what this season might hold for us.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: rebelspawn on September 13, 2017, 09:50:00 am
JED 0 points in 4 games (0pts per game)
JFH - 6 points in 2 games (3pts per game)

August 0 points in 4 games (0pts per game)
September - 6 points in 2 games (3pts per game)

Pre Hurricane Irma 0 points in 4 games (0pts per game)
Post Hurricane Irma - 6 points in 2 games (3pts per game)

Games I went to* 0 points in 4 games (0pts per game) (*home games only)
Games I haven't been to - 6 points in 2 games (3pts per game)

I think its best that you stay away then Uni, your absence has clearly given the team a much needed boost  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 13, 2017, 09:57:53 am
I think its best that you stay away then Uni, your absence has clearly given the team a much needed boost  ;D
I'm not going until we lose! If we keep up the 100% record I'm moving to Spain to watch the games on the internet!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 13, 2017, 10:52:22 am
Nobody fancy the bet? Wonder why?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: clarkeysntfc on September 13, 2017, 10:53:26 am
Probably because people have got better things to do in life.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 13, 2017, 11:04:31 am
Nobody fancy the bet? Wonder why?

I said I will

I will take this bet on one condition.

You allow me to bet with you on who will win the league, after the final game has been played, at the odds from the start of the season!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 13, 2017, 11:26:31 am
I said I will


Will we or will we not get more points per game against the easier (below us) teams, compared to the harder (above us) teams. This really shouldn't be complicated.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 13, 2017, 11:32:10 am
Will we or will we not get more points per game against the easier (below us) teams, compared to the harder (above us) teams. This really shouldn't be complicated.
Its not, you plan on using the league table at the end of the season to retrospectively  say who was an 'easy' or 'hard' game. I just want you to apply the same logic to my bet of who will win the league.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 13, 2017, 11:42:39 am
Its not, you plan on using the league table at the end of the season to retrospectively  say who was an 'easy' or 'hard' game. I just want you to apply the same logic to my bet of who will win the league.


Can you not see, that the teams currently lower have less chance of winning the league or being top half than the teams currently higher. Obviously my initial post was slightly tongue in cheek, but after about 10 games we will have a fair indication of the easier (lower) and harder (higher) games.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 13, 2017, 11:42:46 am
And yet, the facts say otherwise, just like they did last season. I'll bet anyone on here that come the end of the season, we pick up more points per game against the teams below us than those above us. You know why, because they are easier.

OK serious point now to try to explain why this is all rubbish...

According to your own projection in the original post, we will finish somewhere between 7-10. Lets expand that a bit to say we will finish in the top 12, which is the top half and by your logic would make us a 'difficult' game.

Should Shrewsbury, Fleetwood, Charlton on Peterborough then look back at the end of the season and say it was a good win against a good team?


My opinion is no, especially Charlton and Peterborough who we were shocking against and an 'easy' opposition as indicated by the fact that at the time of the game we sat bottom of the league.

I agree you can look at individual games on merit of 'easy' and 'hard' based on the league position at the start of the game and probably more important their form but to look at the table in May and judge two teams on games in August for example is just crazy



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 13, 2017, 12:00:55 pm
Last point on this (people who abuse stats annoy me, I know I'm a geek).
Next 5 games...

Southend - finished 7th last season, top half, currently below us in the league
Wigan - in the Championship last year, currently above us in the top half of the league
Bradford - finished 5th last year, currently above us in the top half of the league
MK Dons - finished 12th last year, currently above us in the bottom half of the league
Rotherham -  in the Championship last year, currently above us in the top half of the league

Which of those is easy?! Only team below us Southend but its at their place. You claim these are the 'easy games to come!

This surely shows that there are no easy games (admittedly you said easier and not easy through)


To add to that, the teams we have played so far... of the 4 games we lost, 2 finished top half, 2 finished bottom half last season


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 13, 2017, 12:08:08 pm
Last point on this (people who abuse stats annoy me, I know I'm a geek).
Next 5 games...

Southend - finished 7th last season, top half, currently below us in the league
Wigan - in the Championship last year, currently above us in the top half of the league
Bradford - finished 5th last year, currently above us in the top half of the league
MK Dons - finished 12th last year, currently above us in the bottom half of the league
Rotherham -  in the Championship last year, currently above us in the top half of the league

Which of those is easy?! Only team below us Southend but its at their place. You claim these are the 'easy games to come!

This surely shows that there are no easy games (admittedly you said easier and not easy through)


To add to that, the teams we have played so far... of the 4 games we lost, 2 finished top half, 2 finished bottom half last season

Exactly, tough run of games, I'd be happy with 5 or 6 points from them.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on September 13, 2017, 12:11:41 pm
Where did last night's game fit into this then?  Portsmouth are bottom half of the table so it must be an easier game. But they are above us in the table so it must be a harder game  ???

Can you please clarify the above Cobbler78?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 13, 2017, 12:16:10 pm
Can you please clarify the above Cobbler78?

Easier than most, the result backs this up.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 13, 2017, 12:39:35 pm
Exactly, tough run of games, I'd be happy with 5 or 6 points from them.

are you a politician or a troll?

The title of this thread, created yesterday after the game, is 'easier games to come'

You are now saying the next 5 games is a tough run of games  ???


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 13, 2017, 13:02:34 pm
are you a politician or a troll?

The title of this thread, created yesterday after the game, is 'easier games to come'

You are now saying the next 5 games is a tough run of games  ???

Correct. There are 46 games in a season are there not? We have played 6, of which 3 currently occupy 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the league and another is just outside the playoffs. On average our remaining games are easier than these opening 6, however, I'm sure I don't need to explain how an average works.......or do I?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Manwork04 on September 13, 2017, 16:34:54 pm
Bore off Marvo you cant


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: lodgeadam on September 13, 2017, 17:31:36 pm
What the fuk have I just read.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Terryfenwickatemyhamster on September 13, 2017, 21:40:23 pm
Nobody fancy the bet? Wonder why?

Because nobody except you would expect anybody to bet that the bleeding obvious will happen.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 13, 2017, 22:04:42 pm
Because nobody except you would expect anybody to bet that the bleeding obvious will happen.

I know it's obvious, you know it's obvious, but if you listen to the bozos on here every game has the same level of difficulty and the same chance of points. I was hoping for some easy cash haha.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Terryfenwickatemyhamster on September 13, 2017, 23:22:53 pm
I know it's obvious, you know it's obvious, but if you listen to the bozos on here every game has the same level of difficulty and the same chance of points. I was hoping for some easy cash haha.

You'll get some fish 😃


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Madrid Cobbler on September 14, 2017, 08:38:03 am
Everybody seems to have missed one of the main reasons why this bet is nonsense. If we finish 19th we'll almost ceretainly have got more points from the teams above us than the teams below and if we finish say 5th, then the opposite will be true.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 11:04:32 am
Everybody seems to have missed one of the main reasons why this bet is nonsense. If we finish 19th we'll almost ceretainly have got more points from the teams above us than the teams below and if we finish say 5th, then the opposite will be true.

Incredible, does someone else want to explain how points per game works?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on September 14, 2017, 11:51:26 am
i thought it was based on games against the top half v bottom half?

if we finish bottom then we will have got more points per game against teams that finish above us - and the whole system will come crashing down.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 12:22:22 pm
Words fail me. These people can vote, drive and even reproduce......well, they can vote and drive.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 14, 2017, 12:49:10 pm
Cobbler78... can you answer the below please...

According to your own projection in the original post, we will finish somewhere between 7-10. Lets expand that a bit to say we will finish in the top 12, which is the top half and by your logic would make us a 'difficult' game.

Should Shrewsbury, Fleetwood, Charlton on Peterborough then look back at the end of the season and say it was a good win against a good team?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 12:55:17 pm
Cobbler78... can you answer the below please...

According to your own projection in the original post, we will finish somewhere between 7-10. Lets expand that a bit to say we will finish in the top 12, which is the top half and by your logic would make us a 'difficult' game.

Should Shrewsbury, Fleetwood, Charlton on Peterborough then look back at the end of the season and say it was a good win against a good team?

Yes.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 14, 2017, 13:04:57 pm
At the time of the game v Peterborough we were bottom of the league, lost all of our games, scored 2 and conceded 6.

And now you state that. Can you see why people think its crazy?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 13:07:12 pm
At the time of the game v Peterborough we were bottom of the league, lost all of our games, scored 2 and conceded 6.

And now you state that. Can you see why people think its crazy?

Three Questions UniCobbler:
1) Talk me through a bad win
2) Which Uni are you at?
3) How many years have you had to resit?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 14, 2017, 13:10:19 pm
Three Questions UniCobbler:
1) Talk me through a bad win
Well done for ignoring the main point of the question
2) Which Uni are you at?
Graduated in 2006 but kept the name for nostalgic reasons
3) How many years have you had to resit?
None


See answers above.
Congratulations on making me bite again, good luck with your trolling, I'm out


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: rebelspawn on September 14, 2017, 13:39:54 pm
Three Questions UniCobbler:
1) Talk me through a bad win
2) Which Uni are you at?
3) How many years have you had to resit?

What qualifications do you have in the field of statistics?

Because I have witnessed before that you arbitrarily choose sample sizes to manipulate the stats to show what you already believe.

We have also demonstrated that none of your models for determining easier and harder games take any account of FORM or on the day factors like injuries to key players, suspensions or international call ups.

We were not a tough game for the Scum, regardless of where we finish this season.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 13:42:30 pm
What qualifications do you have in the field of statistics?

Because I have witnessed before that you arbitrarily choose sample sizes to manipulate the stats to show what you already believe.

We have also demonstrated that none of your models for determining easier and harder games take any account of FORM or on the day factors like injuries to key players, suspensions or international call ups.

We were not a tough game for the Scum, regardless of where we finish this season.

Didn't say we were a tough game did I?

Everyone is over complicating this and from reading this thread, that's the last thing many of you need to do.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: rebelspawn on September 14, 2017, 13:47:12 pm
Didn't say we were a tough game did I?

Everyone is over complicating this and from reading this thread, that's the last thing many of you need to do.

So, no qualifications on your side then? I thought as much



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 13:48:48 pm
So, no qualifications on your side then? I thought as much



Was I wrong last season?

Am I wrong this season?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: rebelspawn on September 14, 2017, 13:52:40 pm
Didn't say we were a tough game did I?

Thats exactly what you are saying. Using your model, if we finish 3rd at the end of the season, you are saying that posh should view the game against us as a good 3 points from a tough game against a strong team. AT THE TIME we played them, that couldn't have been further from the truth.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 13:54:51 pm
Thats exactly what you are saying. Using your model, if we finish 3rd at the end of the season, you are saying that posh should view the game against us as a good 3 points from a tough game against a strong team. AT THE TIME we played them, that couldn't have been further from the truth.

But we won't finish 3rd will we? In any case, pretty sure Posh classed their win away at our place as a great result.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: rebelspawn on September 14, 2017, 13:56:31 pm
Was I wrong last season?

Am I wrong this season?

You were wrong about the fact that we were only heading in one direction under Page.
You were wrong about the fact that we had 'reversed the trend' with a single win (data point) because thats not possible
You were wrong to selct a 7 game sample without any justification other than it was best to fit your pre-determined view point.

I take no issue with the bet you propose. I won't be taking it. But when you talk down to people, as you just did with Uni, whilst at the same time misusing statistics in the way that do, then i will take issue


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 14, 2017, 13:57:07 pm
I've just read this entire thread twice, do I win something?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on September 14, 2017, 13:59:23 pm
Three Questions UniCobbler:
1) Talk me through a bad win
2) Which Uni are you at?
3) How many years have you had to resit?

That's a poor response? That is 2 & 3 .


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 14:01:18 pm
You were wrong about the fact that we were only heading in one direction under Page.
You were wrong about the fact that we had 'reversed the trend' with a single win (data point) because thats not possible
You were wrong to selct a 7 game sample without any justification other than it was best to fit your pre-determined view point.

I take no issue with the bet you propose. I won't be taking it. But when you talk down to people, as you just did with Uni, whilst at the same time misusing statistics in the way that do, then i will take issue

Page points per game vs Jed?
Page goals scored per game vs Jed?
Page results vs higher placed teams vs JED?
Page results vs lower placed teams bs JED?

All of the above favour Page. Fact!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on September 14, 2017, 14:01:58 pm
I've just read this entire thread twice, do I win something?

Depends if you read it from above or below?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 14:04:57 pm


I take no issue with the bet you propose. I won't be taking it. But when you talk down to people, as you just did with Uni, whilst at the same time misusing statistics in the way that do, then i will take issue

If you (or anyone) thought I was wrong you'd take the bet. The fact nobody will take the bet speaks volumes.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: rebelspawn on September 14, 2017, 14:05:17 pm
Page points per game vs Jed?
Page goals scored per game vs Jed?
Page results vs higher placed teams vs JED?
Page results vs lower placed teams bs JED?

All of the above favour Page. Fact!

i didnt mention JED. Why are you bringing him up?

i said:

You were wrong about the fact that we were only heading in one direction under Page.
You were wrong about the fact that we had 'reversed the trend' with a single win (data point) because thats not possible
You were wrong to selct a 7 game sample without any justification other than it was best to fit your pre-determined view point.

Your response has countered none of those points


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on September 14, 2017, 14:06:13 pm
What qualifications do you have in the field of statistics?

We were not a tough game for the Scum, regardless of where we finish this season.
Regardless ? Don't follow.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 14:09:02 pm
i didnt mention JED. Why are you bringing him up?

i said:

You were wrong about the fact that we were only heading in one direction under Page.
You were wrong about the fact that we had 'reversed the trend' with a single win (data point) because thats not possible
You were wrong to selct a 7 game sample without any justification other than it was best to fit your pre-determined view point.

Your response has countered none of those points

Look at the 10 games played prior to Page being sacked and where those teams finished last season. Tough run of games, he was unlucky to be sacked, our results got worse after he was sacked to end of the season. Again, all facts.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on September 14, 2017, 14:10:33 pm
If you (or anyone) thought I was wrong you'd take the bet. The fact nobody will take the bet speaks volumes.

....or gormless enough to do so!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 14:17:13 pm
....or gormless enough to do so!

Exactly, because I'm right and they just can't work out why I am, it really bothers them.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on September 14, 2017, 14:18:42 pm
Exactly, because I'm right and they just can't work out why I am, it really bothers them.

 ;D laugh a minute!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: rebelspawn on September 14, 2017, 16:04:23 pm
Look at the 10 games played prior to Page being sacked and where those teams finished last season. Tough run of games, he was unlucky to be sacked, our results got worse after he was sacked to end of the season. Again, all facts.

Humiliated by Posh who finished 11th, humiliated by Rovers who finished 10th and completely outplayed and outclassed by Stourbridge, who finished... several leagues below us.

We were playing terrible, negative football and were only heading in one direction under Page. 90% of the fan base could see it by the end, but you couldn't. The problem with these discussions is that we can never prove the counter-factual.

care to answer the other two times i highlighted that you misused statistics? or will you just keep ignoring them?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 16:23:24 pm
Humiliated by Posh who finished 11th, humiliated by Rovers who finished 10th and completely outplayed and outclassed by Stourbridge, who finished... several leagues below us.

We were playing terrible, negative football and were only heading in one direction under Page. 90% of the fan base could see it by the end, but you couldn't. The problem with these discussions is that we can never prove the counter-factual.

care to answer the other two times i highlighted that you misused statistics? or will you just keep ignoring them?

10th and 11th is top half right? I.e. One of the better/harder games. You've only mentioned 4 of the 10 league games, any reason you are ignoring Sheff Utdx2, Bradfordx2 and Bolton?

As for negative football, we were still scoring more than the majority of L1 teams at that time, so again, you're factually incorrect.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on September 14, 2017, 16:55:36 pm
10th and 11th is top half right? I.e. One of the better/harder games. You've only mentioned 4 of the 10 league games, any reason you are ignoring Sheff Utdx2, Bradfordx2 and Bolton?

As for negative football, we were still scoring more than the majority of L1 teams at that time, so again, you're factually incorrect.

and yet southend this weekend, one of the easiest games we will play all season (in your fantasy world) you will be happy with a point


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: tcobb on September 14, 2017, 17:09:26 pm
Has this now turned into the "Look at me, I told you I was right " thread ?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: rebelspawn on September 14, 2017, 17:12:21 pm
10th and 11th is top half right? I.e. One of the better/harder games. You've only mentioned 4 of the 10 league games, any reason you are ignoring Sheff Utdx2, Bradfordx2 and Bolton?

As for negative football, we were still scoring more than the majority of L1 teams at that time, so again, you're factually incorrect.

Except i never mentioned how many goals we or others were scoring, did I? so how is that factually incorrect exactly?

I picked the games where we were humiliated - 3pts is not the be-all and end-all to some supporters - but i am pretty sure that no-one wants to see us humiliated. We were, several times under Page, he had to go. But again, your methods don't account for the standard of football, every loss is 0Pts and nothing more, nothing less. To a fan of the game, that is not the case.

You have a serious issue - you simply cannot admit when you are wrong, or when others have observations and valid points about downsides or flaws in your methods. Once again you fail to address the original points i highlighted where you were wrong (in your conclusions, or in your methods), choosing to ignore them because you cannot admit that you are wrong or that there may be better ways to analyse things than your own methods.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 17:20:58 pm
But I'm not wrong am I? And you can't fathom out how this could be possible. I'll keep posting the facts after every game, these will speak for themselves. B1tch and moan about it all you like, some games ARE easier than others. Last season proved that, this season proves that, every season going forward will prove that.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: rebelspawn on September 14, 2017, 17:29:26 pm
But I'm not wrong am I? And you can't fathom out how this could be possible. I'll keep posting the facts after every game, these will speak for themselves. B1tch and moan about it all you like, some games ARE easier than others. Last season proved that, this season proves that, every season going forward will prove that.

You still don't understand what others are saying because you refuse to listen. I have never once disputed that some games are easier than others. I (and others) have merely pointed out the flaws of simply using a teams finishing position in the league to then look back on games and assign them as easy or hard, retrospectively.

I listed three specific cases where you were wrong, and yet you cannot even bring yourself to acknowledge that i have typed them, let alone admit you were wrong. All this despite the fact that i have repeated them more than once. And for this reason alone, i will no longer respond.

I don't think a forum is the correct place for you, you seem to struggle with 2 way debate. Have you considered blogging instead?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 18:20:08 pm
4 games vs teams in the top half (harder games)0 points
2 games vs teams in the bottom half (easier games) 6 points

I don't need to say any more.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Knockingonabit on September 14, 2017, 18:28:53 pm
I sincerely hope you don't.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on September 14, 2017, 18:45:35 pm
I'm beginning to think Cobb78 might have a mental problem..


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: tcobb on September 14, 2017, 19:10:10 pm
He is always right, everybody else is always wrong. That's his simple world.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on September 14, 2017, 19:33:52 pm
I am assuming that these stats (whatever they are, I can't really work out what is being claimed as he talks in riddles) only apply to the Cobblers?
It is well noted that in the Prem some of the teams get more points against the top 6 and then struggle against the minnows. Usually the likes of Liverpool.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BackOfTheNet on September 14, 2017, 19:35:32 pm
I've just read 4 pages of this. My God, why do I do this to myself?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblergaz59 on September 14, 2017, 19:45:21 pm
Ditto...Totally confused now...1 minute everything is based where teams finish up and then all of a sudden the 1st 6 games of this season are being used...Which is it?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on September 14, 2017, 19:47:26 pm
I'm beginning to think Cobb78 might have a mental problem..
Wise words Doc.
If that's your diagnosis what's your prognosis and treatment plan?
Does someone need to agree with Cobb78's analysis of Page, that he was in fact a good manager wrongfully sacked?
(I think this is the root cause of his problem, it has much less to do with easier/harder games, he uses that as a poorly disguised veil).

To offer some further thoughts, maybe he should reduce the amount of ice hockey he watches and rid himself of the ideas he's gained about football through the reading of books?
Books about football never work.





Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 20:19:20 pm
Season 2016/17
Vs Top Half 14pts in 24 games
0.583 pts per game
Vs Bottom Half 39pts in 22 games
1.773 pts per game.

We have played 4 top half teams this season (0 points) and 2 bottom half teams (6pts).

You can't argue with facts.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Coolcat on September 14, 2017, 20:36:11 pm
Season 2016/17
Vs Top Half 14pts in 24 games
0.583 pts per game
Vs Bottom Half 39pts in 22 games
1.773 pts per game.

We have played 4 top half teams this season (0 points) and 2 bottom half teams (6pts).

You can't argue with facts.
Shrewsbury weren't top when we played them, to continue your 'facts' theme!

You are as much of a twat as Hallam...multi?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 20:40:21 pm
Shrewsbury weren't top when we played them, to continue your 'facts' theme!

You are as much of a twat as Hallam...multi?

Where did I say they were? I'm just stating facts, it seems you're confusing yourself by over complicating things.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on September 14, 2017, 20:45:35 pm
Oh, I get it now. Basically you are just stating the obvious that statistically you are more likely to pick up points in some games rather than others. E.g. Man City will more likely beat Palace at home than United away.
We'll beat teams above us and lose to teams below us. As do all teams, or else we'd all be millionaires.
There are distinct exceptions and teams clearly change places throughout the season, so restrospective 'facts' on the whole.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/02/12/proof-that-liverpool-are-actually-the-best-team-in-the-premier-league-6443206/

Apologies in taking until page 5 to grasp your point. I thought there were higher powers at work!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 20:52:43 pm
Oh, I get it now. Basically you are just stating the obvious that statistically you are more likely to pick up points in some games rather than others. E.g. Man City will more likely beat Palace at home than United away.
We'll beat teams above us and lose to teams below us. As do all teams, or else we'd all be millionaires.
There are distinct exceptions and teams clearly change places throughout the season, so restrospective 'facts' on the whole.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/02/12/proof-that-liverpool-are-actually-the-best-team-in-the-premier-league-6443206/

Apologies in taking until page 5 to grasp your point. I thought there were higher powers at work!

Finally, someone isn't over complicating things.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Benji on September 14, 2017, 21:40:41 pm
I reckon this thread will beat the redevelopment thread to the 1000 page mark!
Most inane thread ever.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Coolcat on September 14, 2017, 22:04:37 pm
To sum up 78 (I think!);
Southend is an easier game...but will be happy with a draw!

Now close thread!  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: wrigleys on September 14, 2017, 22:27:45 pm
To sum up 78 (I think!);
Southend is an easier game...but will be happy with a draw!

Now close thread!  ;D

No.

If Southend finish above us at the end of the season, this will be a hard game. If they finish below us, it's a toughie. JFH needs to get a copy of the league table of May 2018 - and fast.

It might make team selection a lottery. But as any armchair physicist knows, JFH must somehow extrapolate back from this glimpse from the future because if he somehow engineers a different result, the space time continuum will be broken and years of pestilence, famine and forced bestiality will be wrung into the Eastern districts for the rest of time.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on September 14, 2017, 22:31:06 pm
Shrewsbury weren't top when we played them, to continue your 'facts' theme!

You are as much of a twat as Hallam...multi?

HA HA - your problem is that Hallam tore you apart on here. Get over it!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: wrigleys on September 14, 2017, 22:41:10 pm
This also means (78 correct me if I'm wrong?) that if we beat anyone they are likely to finish below us. If we lose, they are likely to finish above us.

We can all make a fcking fortune here. If we are second from bottom on the morning of the last day of the season, we are almost certain that either Portsmouth or Doncaster will be bottom, irrespective of where they are at that stage. Even if they are 10 points clear at the top, facts tell us they will receive an 80 point deduction for fielding a North Korean spy or similar! The odds would be a billion to one.

Facts, stats and logic my friends.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 22:45:10 pm
Google the word "Average" .....then ask an adult to read the definition to you, then ask them to explain said definition slowly using words of one syllable.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 22:48:12 pm
This also means (78 correct me if I'm wrong?) that if we beat anyone they are likely to finish below us. If we lose, they are likely to finish above us.

We can all make a fcking fortune here. If we are second from bottom on the morning of the last day of the season, we are almost certain that either Portsmouth or Doncaster will be bottom, irrespective of where they are at that stage. Even if they are 10 points clear at the top, facts tell us they will receive an 80 point deduction for fielding a North Korean spy or similar! The odds would be a billion to one.

Facts, stats and logic my friends.

I know you are being sarcastic in your first paragraph, but you have actually hit the nail on the head. (But you need more emphasis on the word likely)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 14, 2017, 22:58:41 pm
I know I'm the village idiot but I genuinely can't work any of this out? They all sound really convincing to me, perhaps they're all right? Can somebody give me an idiots guide to what's going on? It must be important, so I feel I've got to know. Remember short words only and pictures if possible?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 14, 2017, 23:03:41 pm
I know I'm the village idiot but I genuinely can't work any of this out? They all sound really convincing to me, perhaps they're all right? Can somebody give me an idiots guide to what's going on? It must be important, so I feel I've got to know. Remember short words only and pictures if possible?

It's not rocket science mate, think of it like a list of teams, a "League Table" if you will. The better teams who you have a lower chance of winning against tend to be higher up the table. The further you move down the list (league table) the worse the teams get, this therefore means you are more likely to gain more points.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 14, 2017, 23:06:18 pm
It's not rocket science mate, think of it like a list of teams, a "League Table" if you will. The better teams who you have a lower chance of winning against tend to be higher up the table. The further you move down the list (league table) the worse the teams get, this therefore means you are more likely to gain more points.
Thanks, sounds plausible?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on September 14, 2017, 23:11:34 pm
This also means (78 correct me if I'm wrong?) that if we beat anyone they are likely to finish below us. If we lose, they are likely to finish above us.

We can all make a fcking fortune here. If we are second from bottom on the morning of the last day of the season, we are almost certain that either Portsmouth or Doncaster will be bottom, irrespective of where they are at that stage. Even if they are 10 points clear at the top, facts tell us they will receive an 80 point deduction for fielding a North Korean spy or similar! The odds would be a billion to one.

Facts, stats and logic my friends.

Not sure if you or 78 are confusing things ;D
I much prefer this revised style of yours above , where you omit the "pseudo porno" stuff. Can you please do a match report when convenient; should be worth a chuckle or two. By the way what happened to the Bentley?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on September 14, 2017, 23:17:41 pm
Thanks, sounds plausible?

Actually it does...sometimes! At the moment to consider any game against a side below us as a "banker" goes against the grain just a little. As a matter of interest why insert the "?" ?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 14, 2017, 23:52:52 pm
Actually it does...sometimes! At the moment to consider any game against a side below us as a "banker" goes against the grain just a little. As a matter of interest why insert the "?" ?

also plausible, as for the ?, I was scared I might get shouted at if I didn't.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 15, 2017, 07:29:40 am
I convinced myself I wouldn't get involved in this again but here it goes. First of all its like debating / discussing with a marshmallow, I've no idea why, just the first thing that comes into my head, now I will try to be a bit more serious.

Ignore the title of the thread, there are little to no stats in here (google what a stat is, how it differs from a fact etc).

There are essentially two points that should be separated but are being combined and confusing everyone as they don't fully complement each other...

First... The league table at the end of the season.... yes we are more likely to have taken more points from the teams in the bottom half than the top (ignore where we finish, just split the league in 2). Its stating the obvious and hardly a mathematical insight.

Second... using where teams finish at the end of the season is an extremely poor way of judging how hard or easy the next game is, more so at this point of the season. It doesn't factor in form at the time of the game, injuries or even if a club had a new manager, has made a signing or sold a player.
The easiest example of this is one I have used before. When we played P*sh I don't think many will disagree that we were poor and an 'easy' game for them. IF we continue to play how we hope an even just scrape into the top half on goal difference, according to Cobbler78, and he confirmed this on a previous post, we would automatically become a 'hard' game based on the finish position and not at the time of the game.
As the season develops, especially post January you can use this idea more as there will be less movement of manager, no more player movements and the top 10 and bottom 10 will be fairly fixed with just some movement between the top and bottom half of the league.

Given all of that it doesn't allow for the bottom teams fighting for their lives at the back of the season, how many points did we take from top teams when we just survived under Wilder when he first came in?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on September 15, 2017, 08:28:35 am
It's not rocket science mate, think of it like a list of teams, a "League Table" if you will. The better teams who you have a lower chance of winning against tend to be higher up the table. The further you move down the list (league table) the worse the teams get, this therefore means you are more likely to gain more points.

yet we play one of the worse teams this coming saturday, and should be happy with a point


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on September 15, 2017, 08:32:31 am
I convinced myself I wouldn't get involved in this again but here it goes. First of all its like debating / discussing with a marshmallow, I've no idea why, just the first thing that comes into my head, now I will try to be a bit more serious.

Ignore the title of the thread, there are little to no stats in here (google what a stat is, how it differs from a fact etc).

There are essentially two points that should be separated but are being combined and confusing everyone as they don't fully complement each other...

First... The league table at the end of the season.... yes we are more likely to have taken more points from the teams in the bottom half than the top (ignore where we finish, just split the league in 2). Its stating the obvious and hardly a mathematical insight.

Second... using where teams finish at the end of the season is an extremely poor way of judging how hard or easy the next game is, more so at this point of the season. It doesn't factor in form at the time of the game, injuries or even if a club had a new manager, has made a signing or sold a player.
The easiest example of this is one I have used before. When we played P*sh I don't think many will disagree that we were poor and an 'easy' game for them. IF we continue to play how we hope an even just scrape into the top half on goal difference, according to Cobbler78, and he confirmed this on a previous post, we would automatically become a 'hard' game based on the finish position and not at the time of the game.
As the season develops, especially post January you can use this idea more as there will be less movement of manager, no more player movements and the top 10 and bottom 10 will be fairly fixed with just some movement between the top and bottom half of the league.

Given all of that it doesn't allow for the bottom teams fighting for their lives at the back of the season, how many points did we take from top teams when we just survived under Wilder when he first came in?

on the 'facts' used by cobbler78 we should all be able to retrospectively go back and bet on all the games, safe in the knowledge at the end of the season we will know which the tough games were, and which the easy ones were.
unless, in the example above, which points a flaw in the whole ludicrous imaginary system used by cobbler 78, boro finish in the bottom half of the table, and therefore constitute an easy game, despite the fact at the time, we were by far and away the worst team in the league and were absolute fodder for them.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Buster on September 15, 2017, 09:36:32 am
And yet, the facts say otherwise, just like they did last season. I'll bet anyone on here that come the end of the season, we pick up more points per game against the teams below us than those above us. You know why, because they are easier.

Well if it's facts that count then read 'em from the last four seasons and weep.  Oh, and enjoy the humble pie...

2016/17
From teams above: 25 from 20 games = 1.25 per game
From teams below: 28 from 16 games = 1.75 per game

2015/16
No team finished above us


2014/15
From teams above: 51 from 40 games = 1.275 per game
From teams below: 2 points from 6 games = 0.333 per game

2013/14
From teams above: 34 from 22 games = 1.545 per game
From teams below: 27 from 24 games = 1.125 per game

This last one is particularly humbling isn't it - we finished 12th and picked up 7 more points from the 2 fewer games of the teams that finished above us...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on September 15, 2017, 09:39:29 am
Well if it's facts that count then read 'em from the last four seasons and weep.  Oh, and enjoy the humble pie...

2016/17
From teams above: 25 from 20 games = 1.25 per game
From teams below: 28 from 16 games = 1.75 per game

2015/16
No team finished above us


2014/15
From teams above: 51 from 40 games = 1.275 per game
From teams below: 2 points from 6 games = 0.333 per game

2013/14
From teams above: 34 from 22 games = 1.545 per game
From teams below: 27 from 24 games = 1.125 per game

This last one is particularly humbling isn't it - we finished 12th and picked up 7 more points from the 2 fewer games of the teams that finished above us...

can't have happened mate, have you not listened to everything that cobbler78 has said.............he is right, based on his made up facts, and you are wrong.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Gen.Disorda on September 15, 2017, 09:43:51 am
This really isn't that hard to understand, where a team is now or when we play them is irrelevant.

If you look at the table at the end of the year we will be more likely to have beaten the teams that finished bellow us than those who finished above us.

He is not claiming to be mystic Meg, he is just pointing out that on average that will be the case. All this talk of betting came after everyone challenged this point.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest2235 on September 15, 2017, 09:51:36 am
This is all bollocks! You don't play football on paper its a game of two halves played over 90 minutes. You do your talking on the pitch, give it 110%, take one game at a time and once you cross that white line its 11 v 11 on a level playing field. It's not rocket science!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Buster on September 15, 2017, 09:58:22 am
can't have happened mate, have you not listened to everything that cobbler78 has said.............he is right, based on his made up facts, and you are wrong.

 :) Well he would have won his bet for one of the past four seasons at least


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 15, 2017, 11:16:10 am
I make that 6 explanations since I asked my question and I found myself agreeing with the lot? What does that make me?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 15, 2017, 11:23:23 am
This is all bollocks! You don't play football on paper its a game of two halves played over 90 minutes. You do your talking on the pitch, give it 110%, take one game at a time and once you cross that white line its 11 v 11 on a level playing field. It's not rocket science!
Exactly this!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on September 15, 2017, 12:12:42 pm
2013/14
From teams above: 34 from 22 games = 1.545 per game
From teams below: 27 from 24 games = 1.125 per game
This last one is particularly humbling isn't it - we finished 12th and picked up 7 more points from the 2 fewer games of the teams that finished above us...

That's a really interesting one (although it was season 2012/3). We must have bucked the trend for statistically Cobblers78 is correct. Teams will generally gain more points from those below than above simply because there's more points to pick up.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on September 15, 2017, 12:31:43 pm
This really isn't that hard to understand, where a team is now or when we play them is irrelevant.

If you look at the table at the end of the year we will be more likely to have beaten the teams that finished bellow us than those who finished above us.

He is not claiming to be mystic Meg, he is just pointing out that on average that will be the case. All this talk of betting came after everyone challenged this point.

That's fine, but he shouldn't be saying 0 points from 4 teams in the top half of the table then because what matters is the table at the end of the season. and not the table on 15.09.17.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on September 15, 2017, 12:32:15 pm
That's a really interesting one (although it was season 2012/3). We must have bucked the trend for statistically Cobblers78 is correct. Teams will generally gain more points from those below than above simply because there's more points to pick up.

depends where you finish in the league - which is why its calculated on points per game.................in which the above stats (if correct) show him to be wrong in 3 out of the last 4 seasons based on points per game.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 15, 2017, 12:57:39 pm
Well if it's facts that count then read 'em from the last four seasons and weep.  Oh, and enjoy the humble pie...

2016/17
From teams above: 25 from 20 games = 1.25 per game
From teams below: 28 from 16 games = 1.75 per game

2015/16
No team finished above us


2014/15
From teams above: 51 from 40 games = 1.275 per game
From teams below: 2 points from 6 games = 0.333 per game

2013/14
From teams above: 34 from 22 games = 1.545 per game
From teams below: 27 from 24 games = 1.125 per game

This last one is particularly humbling isn't it - we finished 12th and picked up 7 more points from the 2 fewer games of the teams that finished above us...

Good stats, if correct (not doubting they aren't) this is very surprising. Maybe we just have a team of flat track bullies for the last 2 years.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Monkey on September 15, 2017, 13:20:51 pm
There is such a thing as playing a team at the right time and league position "on paper" becomes irrelevant.
We are a prime example of this recently. With 0 points and 23rd in the table we were looking like easy pickings, but it doesnt account for the new manager factor and player mentalities. Form, injuries/suspensions and various other external factors will all contribute too.

There have been seasons where we seemed to always be playing teams at the "wrong" time, either after a lift in form, or the introduction of a new manager etc. The promotion season was the opposite and we seemingly got lucky playing teams who had a number of their best players injured or they were simply in a bit of a slump.





Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on September 15, 2017, 13:26:56 pm
Unfortunately, this thread is similar to a number of threads on this board:  Someone puts up a hypothetical theory and everyone 'assaults' it or quotes it as if it is the truth, initiating an argument with a hypothetical theory. 


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on September 15, 2017, 14:02:16 pm
Unfortunately, this thread is similar to a number of threads on this board:  Someone puts up a hypothetical theory and everyone 'assaults' it or quotes it as if it is the truth, initiating an argument with a hypothetical theory. 


Quite - talk about feeding the "trundler".


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 15, 2017, 21:23:58 pm
This really isn't that hard to understand, where a team is now or when we play them is irrelevant.

If you look at the table at the end of the year we will be more likely to have beaten the teams that finished bellow us than those who finished above us.

He is not claiming to be mystic Meg, he is just pointing out that on average that will be the case. All this talk of betting came after everyone challenged this point.

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 20, 2017, 05:57:21 am
But I'm not wrong am I? And you can't fathom out how this could be possible. I'll keep posting the facts after every game, these will speak for themselves. B1tch and moan about it all you like, some games ARE easier than others. Last season proved that, this season proves that, every season going forward will prove that.

As promised, an update for you lovely lot.
Vs top half 3pts in 6 games (0.5PPG)
Vs bottom half 4 points in 2games (2PPG)

Projection 11+48=59Pts (mid table)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on September 20, 2017, 08:36:53 am
but if Wigan finish bottom half, then that will be 3 points lost from an easier game???


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 20, 2017, 08:57:37 am
but if Wigan finish bottom half, then that will be 3 points lost from an easier game???


Correct, what's your point?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 20, 2017, 12:41:58 pm
Correct, what's your point?
I admire your persistence 78, but you have to admit this is not the most popular of performance based statistical measures on offer? I am detecting a note of scepticism and dare I say incredulity from many of your peers on here? Just an observation you understand, rather than a criticism.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 21, 2017, 11:26:34 am
I admire your persistence 78, but you have to admit this is not the most popular of performance based statistical measures on offer? I am detecting a note of scepticism and dare I say incredulity from many of your peers on here? Just an observation you understand, rather than a criticism.

I agree, it's not popular, but I am going to keep on posting it as I can't take the majority of posters seriously on here.
My prediction is, once we have played 14 games, the projected final points total will be accurate to within a 5 point range either way come the end of the season.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Saint Cobbler on September 21, 2017, 12:10:18 pm
Strangely enough, I do agree with most of what you say 78 (howls of derision from others). However, I do think your 14 game theory is a bit far fetched and would like to see the conclusion at end of season. It seems a long time ago, but I think this whole thread started because JED had a relatively good early start at the Cobblers and most people therefore thought he was a big step up from Page, whereas in reality he just had a few easy games before the rot set in. I certainly agreed with your early assessment. I never believed this thread would have such longevity but keep stoking the fires 78 and enjoy the ride!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on September 21, 2017, 14:24:55 pm
I agree, it's not popular, but I am going to keep on posting it as I can't take the majority of posters seriously on here.
My prediction is, once we have played 14 games, the projected final points total will be accurate to within a 5 point range either way come the end of the season.
Should you consider opening a  Hotelend spread betting enterprise then 78?
If you do, Millwall 95/96, just saying.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 21, 2017, 17:43:33 pm
Strangely enough, I do agree with most of what you say 78 (howls of derision from others). However, I do think your 14 game theory is a bit far fetched and would like to see the conclusion at end of season. It seems a long time ago, but I think this whole thread started because JED had a relatively good early start at the Cobblers and most people therefore thought he was a big step up from Page, whereas in reality he just had a few easy games before the rot set in. I certainly agreed with your early assessment. I never believed this thread would have such longevity but keep stoking the fires 78 and enjoy the ride!

Time will tell, but I'm confident it will prove accurate again. If we can get a higher league finish than last season and an increase in home attendances I'd happily take that as it will be improvement for the 4th consecutive season.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on September 21, 2017, 17:52:45 pm
Cobb78 should start an online betting site.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on September 21, 2017, 19:47:23 pm
Time will tell, but I'm confident it will prove accurate again. If we can get a higher league finish than last season and an increase in home attendances I'd happily take that as it will be improvement for the 4th consecutive season.
I'd be happy with that outcome, were you accurate before then 78?

Back to your prediction.
Would your methodology would be something like this.. the amount of points we've achieved after 14 games as your starting point, then somewhere between promotion form of two points a game 64, and relegation form of one point per game 32.
Difference of 32 points...pitch somewhere in the middle, let's say 32+7/17 and arrive at predicted points?

If so...with our current total of 7points plus 44 +/-5 from the final 32 fixtures plus whatever we pick up from games 9-14, let's say 8, that'll put us on 59 +/-5 for the season. That's not likely to be too far out is it?
It'll be more accurate once we know how many we pick up from the next six games of course.

I'm going for a total of 59 points right now then, although actually I don't pretend to have a fcuking clue how the rest of the season will go, but barring a shock surge or collapse in form, that'll be pretty close I reckon :)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on September 22, 2017, 13:06:00 pm
I think most people would be able to predict the points within the 11 point spread your theory offers without a ball even being kicked.

Still I like how you cling on to this being some super exercise in mathematics, statistics and probability that shows you to be some super brain and better than most - if it actually lands, which in all probability it will given its actual simplicity.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on September 22, 2017, 15:11:44 pm
It isn't a super exercise in maths, stats and probability and he knows it.
He probably sits behind his keyboard chuckling to himself (whilst he adds fuel to the embers after each match) that this is causing people to be so argumentative and seriously dismissive over.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 22, 2017, 22:20:29 pm
I think most people would be able to predict the points within the 11 point spread your theory offers without a ball even being kicked.

Still I like how you cling on to this being some super exercise in mathematics, statistics and probability that shows you to be some super brain and better than most - if it actually lands, which in all probability it will given its actual simplicity.



It's too simplistic for some.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 23, 2017, 17:13:13 pm
Now we have a run of much easier games coming and we are getting our players back fit, I'm expecting a large haul of point in the next month

Vs top half P6 0pts Ave 0PPG
Vs bottom half P3 7pts 2.33PPG
(But you know, no such thing as easier games 🐸 ☕️)
Projection 51pts.....will change when we nick the odd point against a top half team, I'm still hopefull of a top half finish.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on September 23, 2017, 20:42:51 pm
Jesus, this is the crappiest and most pointless wasre of bytes ever.

Two weeks ago we supposedly averaged 0.5 points per game against top teams. How can it now be zero?

Don't waste your time explaining, I know the reason why and its thats very reason why its all total bullshat.

It relies on the goalposts moving week by week. You effectively lose points gained if teams move from one half to the other. Zero credibility. Lock it for me, total waste of time


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 23, 2017, 22:54:39 pm
Jesus, this is the crappiest and most pointless wasre of bytes ever.

Two weeks ago we supposedly averaged 0.5 points per game against top teams. How can it now be zero?

Don't waste your time explaining, I know the reason why and its thats very reason why its all total bullshat.

It relies on the goalposts moving week by week. You effectively lose points gained if teams move from one half to the other. Zero credibility. Lock it for me, total waste of time

Wasre of bytes?

Anyway, look at the facts. We have played some tough games so when we play the easier ones (next month) our points will rocket, it's not complicated X


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 24, 2017, 08:22:32 am
Jesus, this is the crappiest and most pointless wasre of bytes ever.

Two weeks ago we supposedly averaged 0.5 points per game against top teams. How can it now be zero?

Don't waste your time explaining, I know the reason why and its thats very reason why its all total bullshat.

It relies on the goalposts moving week by week. You effectively lose points gained if teams move from one half to the other. Zero credibility. Lock it for me, total waste of time
Dunno what you're on about, great fun this thread, I've enjoyed every minute of it. Top class entertainment.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Madrid Cobbler on September 24, 2017, 17:52:18 pm
A seven page thread just to say we'll get more points against good teams than bad teams  ???


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Madrid Cobbler on September 24, 2017, 17:53:59 pm
Or the other way round, of course :P


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 25, 2017, 06:51:23 am
A seven page thread just to say we'll get more points against good teams than bad teams  ???

Really? I thought the teams lower down were easier to get points against, however, if you read this thread others are still disagreeing with this fact, you need all sorts in society I suppose.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Madrid Cobbler on September 25, 2017, 08:39:39 am
Really? I thought the teams lower down were easier to get points against, however, if you read this thread others are still disagreeing with this fact, you need all sorts in society I suppose.

Indeed, including pedantic people who can't let things go, it seems.  ::)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on September 25, 2017, 09:46:38 am
I don't think anyone at all disagrees that (logically anyway) teams at the lower end of the table (on paper) represent easier opposition than those at the top.

The problem with your meanderings is that they're not based in real time. In your scenario, if we played the top team now, they'd be a hard game in your book but if we beat them we gain points against a top team. Move on eight weeks, if that side has bombed into the bottom half, under your theory, the points we gained are now from a lower team, even though they were a top team when we beat them.

So your theory is basically rubbish and tears itself apart. Noone needs to devalue it, it devalues itself.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 25, 2017, 11:11:33 am
I don't think anyone at all disagrees that (logically anyway) teams at the lower end of the table (on paper) represent easier opposition than those at the top.

The problem with your meanderings is that they're not based in real time. In your scenario, if we played the top team now, they'd be a hard game in your book but if we beat them we gain points against a top team. Move on eight weeks, if that side has bombed into the bottom half, under your theory, the points we gained are now from a lower team, even though they were a top team when we beat them.

So your theory is basically rubbish and tears itself apart. Noone needs to devalue it, it devalues itself.

And yet the facts say otherwise.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on September 25, 2017, 11:17:01 am
And yet the facts say otherwise.
Last season Sheff Utd had a bad start to the season and lost games. They went on to win the league with 100 points.

The first 4-5 games they were poor that is a fact as proven by the fact they were near the bottom of the league
After the first 4-5 games they were the best team in the division that is a fact proven by the fact the finished top.

The second fact does not mean the first fact is no longer a fact. Fact


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on September 25, 2017, 13:28:12 pm
And yet the facts say otherwise.

The thing is, your "theory" my hold some water if you were either brave enough, or could be bothered to apply it properly. To do this you'd need to apply it in real time and not let it wander like you do.

the very fact we previously had an average of 0.5 and you've now reset it to zero proves this point. It's mathematically impossible once you've had a positive average for it to then sink to zero.

That is a fact. All you are doing is stating the obvious and trying to wrap some formula around it.

Anyway, I've given you and this this thread way more time than it actually deserves. If you're too obtuse to see the obvious i'll just leave you to it


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 26, 2017, 12:16:28 pm
Tough game tonight, yet another top half team, would be happy to nick a point.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 26, 2017, 23:15:41 pm
Update.
Vs top half 1 point in 7 (0.143PPG, Projection 3.42)
Vs bottom half 7 points from 3 (2.333PPG, Projection 51.33)

Total 55pts. As I said, this will rise over the next month due to the upcoming easier (bottom half) teams.

I'm still hopeful of 60+ points.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on September 26, 2017, 23:28:17 pm
If only football and life was predictable. You might be onto something.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 26, 2017, 23:34:21 pm
If only football and life was predictable. You might be onto something.

Seems pretty predicable to me, we tend to lose to better teams and beat worse team.......who'd have thought it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on September 27, 2017, 06:39:06 am
Seems pretty predicable to me, we tend to lose to better teams and beat worse team.......who'd have thought it.

Except that’s not true as proven in a previous post.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: thebof on September 28, 2017, 16:21:06 pm
Update.
Vs top half 1 point in 7 (0.143PPG, Projection 3.42)
Vs bottom half 7 points from 3 (2.333PPG, Projection 51.33)

Call me thick if you want, but we've played 8 of the top 12 teams, not 7.

And 2 of the bottom 12 teams, not 3.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on September 28, 2017, 16:35:45 pm
Have I/we lost it?
I thought that the stats were founded on those above us and those below us not top half bottom half?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on September 28, 2017, 16:42:07 pm
Have I/we lost it?
I thought that the stats were founded on those above us and those below us not top half bottom half?

i think the rule is "make it up as you go along"...............at one point it was top half were harder games and bottom half were easier, then it was those above us are harder games, even if they are in the bottom half and those below us were easier.

but of course, none of this matters until the end of the season when under this ludicrous system we know for definite who were the easier games and who were the harder games.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on September 28, 2017, 16:42:58 pm
Have I/we lost it?
I thought that the stats were founded on those above us and those below us not top half bottom half?

No idea - he can't even stick to the facts it seems! I make it 5 points vs top half and 3 points vs bottom half.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on September 28, 2017, 17:02:16 pm
Have I/we lost it?
I thought that the stats were founded on those above us and those below us not top half bottom half?
You havent lost it, no 78 has.
And it strikes me that the sole reason, that this pointless thread was not locked a long time ago, is in order to keep up the post counts on this forum. This is my last contribution to this thread. I am sure that no 78 will keep bumping it though. With a smile on his face.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 28, 2017, 18:36:26 pm
No idea - he can't even stick to the facts it seems! I make it 5 points vs top half and 3 points vs bottom half.

Apologies, I was abroad. Correction.

4pts in 8 games vs top half (0.5ppg)
4pts in 2 games vs bottom half (2ppg)
Projection 12pts vs top half, 44pts vs bottom half, total 56pts
Added stat 0pts in 6 games vs top 10.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on September 28, 2017, 18:55:50 pm
That jigsaw of yours is coming along nicely Cobbler78.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on September 28, 2017, 19:57:14 pm
That jigsaw of yours is coming along nicely Cobbler78.
He keeps cutting his own pieces out and moving the jigsaw around..


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 28, 2017, 20:00:21 pm
Just educating you all on the facts, you're welcome X


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 30, 2017, 17:07:51 pm
Update after Rotherham

The below are facts, not opinions:
Vs Top Half, 2 points in 9 games (Ave 0.22 points per game) Projection 4.89points
Vs Bottom Half, 6 points in 2 games (Ave 3 points per game)  Projection 72 points
Projection 77 points (PlayOffs)

The below is an educated opinion:
Between now and the end of 2017 we have 14 league games, I expect us to pick up over 20 points from these games, as many of them are very winnable, particularly at home. Come the turn of the year we should be on around 30 points from 25 games and on our way to beating last season final position.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on September 30, 2017, 17:11:24 pm
Update after Rotherham

The below are facts, not opinions:
Vs Top Half, 2 points in 9 games (Ave 0.22 points per game) Projection 4.89points
Vs Bottom Half, 6 points in 2 games (Ave 3 points per game)  Projection 72 points
Projection 77 points (PlayOffs)

The below is an educated opinion:
Between now and the end of 2017 we have 14 league games, I expect us to pick up over 20 points from these games, as many of them are very winnable, particularly at home. Come the turn of the year we should be on around 30 points from 25 games and on our way to beating last season final position.

On what basis are they winnable, we haven't scored in 4 1/2 games?!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 30, 2017, 17:18:12 pm
On what basis are they winnable, we haven't scored in 4 1/2 games?!

Because they are easier games. I thought that was obvious?

You can take the negatives out of us not scoring, but how does that help? Facts are, we've not scored in 4 games, yes, that's awful. But, 3 tough away games and a home game against Bradford, all 4 of these teams are better than us and will be looking for promotion, how many points did we realistically expect from these games? 2 or 3 I guess. These are not that games that will define our season, the next two home games will. I'm expecting 4 or 6 points from those two and 10 points in the next 5 games.

The easier games start right now.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Manwork04 on September 30, 2017, 17:22:11 pm
Apologies, I was abroad. Correction.

4pts in 8 games vs top half (0.5ppg)
4pts in 2 games vs bottom half (2ppg)
Projection 12pts vs top half, 44pts vs bottom half, total 56pts
Added stat 0pts in 6 games vs top 10.


Are you even more of a boring tw@t when you are abroad?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 30, 2017, 17:26:56 pm
Are you even more of a boring tw@t when you are abroad?

That's a bit of a boring question to waste a post on isn't it?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on September 30, 2017, 18:21:04 pm
Are you even more of a boring tw@t when you are abroad?
That would be pretty tough..


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on September 30, 2017, 18:59:33 pm
Update after Rotherham

The below are facts, not opinions:
Vs Top Half, 2 points in 9 games (Ave 0.22 points per game) Projection 4.89points
Vs Bottom Half, 6 points in 2 games (Ave 3 points per game)  Projection 72 points
Projection 77 points (PlayOffs)

The below is an educated opinion:
Between now and the end of 2017 we have 14 league games, I expect us to pick up over 20 points from these games, as many of them are very winnable, particularly at home. Come the turn of the year we should be on around 30 points from 25 games and on our way to beating last season final position.

Just a simple yes or no will suffice:

Would you like a wager that we will not get 77 points or make the playoffs?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on September 30, 2017, 22:46:26 pm
Jesus suffering Christ....

You offer up "facts" then offer your opinion.

The only fact here is that both the above are total $hite.. .


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 30, 2017, 23:19:28 pm
Just a simple yes or no will suffice:

Would you like a wager that we will not get 77 points or make the playoffs?

No.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 30, 2017, 23:21:28 pm
Jesus suffering Christ....

You offer up "facts" then offer your opinion.

The only fact here is that both the above are total $hite.. .

But they are not though are they? The facts are, well, FACTS. The opinion is (again) my opinion.

You've kind of made yourself look a bit silly here, haven't you?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Boot and shoe on October 01, 2017, 00:54:20 am
Personal arguments are so boring to everyone else


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: SteveRiches on October 01, 2017, 03:39:34 am
+1


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on October 01, 2017, 13:46:12 pm
Regardless of peoples opinions of this thread, I believe the run of games we have between now and 23rd December will determine our season. We certainly do have a run of 'easier' fixtures compared to how this season has started - however, most rivals in the league will be viewing us as an easy fixture.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 01, 2017, 15:25:23 pm
But they are not though are they? The facts are, well, FACTS. The opinion is (again) my opinion.

You've kind of made yourself look a bit silly here, haven't you?

Not really. If there were a poll for whether this thread, your facts and your posts it general have any credibility I'm supremely confident that the outcome would not please you.

Not that it would make any difference, you're so blind to anything that shows your posts to be total rubbish any debate is pointless


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Irchy cob on October 01, 2017, 15:30:43 pm
Potentially good news for Saturday is that both of Bristol Roversí first choice centre backs have received international call ups and will be missing, of course we lose Poole for the same reason. Just out of interest how many players have to be missing for a game to get called off - I thought for the Wigan game they had 2 missing and we had one?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 01, 2017, 15:44:51 pm
Not really. If there were a poll for whether this thread, your facts and your posts it general have any credibility I'm supremely confident that the outcome would not please you.

If true, this says a lot about the people voting in the poll as you can't argue with facts.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on October 01, 2017, 15:55:28 pm
as you can't argue with facts.

You can


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 01, 2017, 15:57:34 pm
You can

HaHa, good point, but I fear your point will go over the heads of those arguing with the facts.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on October 01, 2017, 16:00:28 pm
Personal arguments are so boring to everyone else
I'm not bored. Do you think I need to get out more?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WadeyCobbler on October 01, 2017, 16:36:20 pm
Potentially good news for Saturday is that both of Bristol Roversí first choice centre backs have received international call ups and will be missing, of course we lose Poole for the same reason. Just out of interest how many players have to be missing for a game to get called off - I thought for the Wigan game they had 2 missing and we had one?

I thought it was 3 tbh. We need Crooks, Foley or a remarkable recovery for JJOT or McWilliams for Sat with Poole away.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Irchy cob on October 01, 2017, 16:55:40 pm
I thought it was 3 tbh. We need Crooks, Foley or a remarkable recovery for JJOT or McWilliams for Sat with Poole away.

Like I've said before I've given up hoping to get accurate information on injuries from the club or media. Going by the latest "bulletins" foley is fit and has been fit for the last few games so it's a bit disappointing that he hasn't featured, according to insider jjot isn't going to be back despite us being told he's back in full training, god knows about McWilliams or crooks.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on October 01, 2017, 17:31:16 pm
If true, this says a lot about the people voting in the poll as you can't argue with facts.

Buster already posted the facts on 15th September. I'll refresh your memory:

Quote
Well if it's facts that count then read 'em from the last four seasons and weep.  Oh, and enjoy the humble pie...

2016/17
From teams above: 25 from 20 games = 1.25 per game
From teams below: 28 from 16 games = 1.75 per game

2015/16
No team finished above us


2014/15
From teams above: 51 from 40 games = 1.275 per game
From teams below: 2 points from 6 games = 0.333 per game

2013/14
From teams above: 34 from 22 games = 1.545 per game
From teams below: 27 from 24 games = 1.125 per game

This last one is particularly humbling isn't it - we finished 12th and picked up 7 more points from the 2 fewer games of the teams that finished above us...

The FACT that you wouldn't even put money on the predicted outcome of your stats speaks volumes.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 01, 2017, 17:43:52 pm
Buster already posted the facts on 15th September. I'll refresh your memory:

The FACT that you wouldn't even put money on the predicted outcome of your stats speaks volumes.

I never predicted anything.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 01, 2017, 18:00:36 pm
I never predicted anything.
I suggest you check the title of this, your own thread...Re Stats 'Easier games to come'.
That's not a prediction then?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest2235 on October 01, 2017, 20:28:30 pm
There is no such thing as an easier game. I guess by 78ís thinking Bristol Rovers will be thinking this upcoming game is an easy fixture and we are thinking....


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 01, 2017, 20:35:42 pm
There is no such thing as an easier game. I guess by 78ís thinking Bristol Rovers will be thinking this upcoming game is an easy fixture and we are thinking....

Jeepers? If Cobblers were to play Man Utd or Kettering Town I guarantee you one game is easier than the other. The same logic can be applied for L1 but the gap between the two ends of the spectrum is reduced. Some games are easier than others, fact. October is an easier month, fact.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 01, 2017, 20:37:00 pm
I suggest you check the title of this, your own thread...Re Stats 'Easier games to come'.
That's not a prediction then?


Just stating a fact, not predicting anything. Just saying we have some easier games to come, which we do, starting NOW.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WadeyCobbler on October 01, 2017, 21:09:55 pm
Bristol Rovers will be one of the harder easier games coming up! Especially if we are still missing the likes of Crooks, Foley, JJOT, McWilliams, Long and Poole away. We just need to hope JFH comes up with a system with what he has available that can make a breakthrough.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on October 01, 2017, 21:34:37 pm
It's all relative. Bristol Rovers and AFC will be saying they have one of their easier games coming up.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 01, 2017, 21:40:05 pm
It's all relative. Bristol Rovers and AFC will be saying they have one of their easier games coming up.

What they think is irrelevant to our next 5 games compared to our last 4 games.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 01, 2017, 22:23:42 pm
Just stating a fact, not predicting anything. Just saying we have some easier games to come, which we do, starting NOW.
lol. Oh yes are.
You would be stating a fact if the title was 'games to come'.
By adding the word 'easier' and omitting a question mark at the end you are predicting something.
You might well be proved right, but it most certainly is a prediction  ;)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on October 01, 2017, 22:35:54 pm
lol. Oh yes are.
You would be stating a fact if the title was 'games to come'.
By adding the word 'easier' and omitting a question mark at the end you are predicting something.
You might well be proved right, but it most certainly is a prediction  ;)

Using his/her wild analogy earlier. If we played United in the league cup on week, and Kettering in the FA cup the next. You honestly don't think one would be easier?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 01, 2017, 23:41:19 pm
Using his/her wild analogy earlier. If we played United in the league cup on week, and Kettering in the FA cup the next. You honestly don't think one would be easier?
Isn't it Cobbler78 who's denying predictions?!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on October 02, 2017, 08:41:26 am
Having slept on it... We DID play Man United in the League Cup last season. And we DID play some obscure non league pub outfit in the FA Cup last season. I'm starting to think we are the easy game.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on October 02, 2017, 09:08:23 am
Just stating a fact, not predicting anything. Just saying we have some easier games to come, which we do, starting NOW.

You won't know if it's an easier game or not until you look at the final league table. Bristol Rovers may look easy now but they could win the league in which case it's the hardest of the lot.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on October 02, 2017, 09:17:21 am
You won't know if it's an easier game or not until you look at the final league table. Bristol Rovers may look easy now but they could win the league in which case it's the hardest of the lot.

Similar DNA to Shrewsbury, who were going to be an easy first game of the season?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Boot and shoe on October 02, 2017, 09:50:34 am
One thing is for certain - we will be looked upon as an easy game by everyone else in the division.
We are hard to beat but you only need one goal against us .
Until the penny drops about playing the old boys up front on their own, or Waters gets a chance alongside one of them , we will continue to struggle


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: eddieeddie on October 02, 2017, 13:43:03 pm
(https://experimental361.files.wordpress.com/2017/10/2017-10-02-l1.png?w=860&h=704)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 02, 2017, 14:33:50 pm
no idea what that graphic is showing.

bristol rovers an easier game, but still in the top half so technically a harder game?! - so although he should win as it is easier, we should also struggle to win or pick up a draw as it's a harder game.

i cant believe people struggle with this ever changing system based on one persons ever changing opinion.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 03, 2017, 13:34:43 pm
The graphic at least shows who is in form an who isn't which at least contributes to destroying C78's "facts".

A team could lose their first 12 then win their next 6 and be bottom third and play a team who won their first 12 and lost their last 6 and be top third. C78's logic would have that as a hard game for the first team and an easy game for the second when clearly, based on form, it's the other way around.

Still, he'll find some way to try and refute this reality...

ask any manager, he'd rather play a team coming off the back of 6 losses than one on a 6 match winning streak, regardless of table position...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: RoversInPeace on October 03, 2017, 15:18:02 pm
This will be one of your EASIER games. We are absolutely horrendous away from home. Good chance of a win for you. I'll be happy with a point.
-Also we will be without our two first choice central defenders (Lockyer+Sweeney) as they have been called up to their national teams.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 03, 2017, 15:59:24 pm
This will be one of your EASIER games. We are absolutely horrendous away from home. Good chance of a win for you. I'll be happy with a point.
-Also we will be without our two first choice central defenders (Lockyer+Sweeney) as they have been called up to their national teams.

all of the above doesn't matter with this foolproof system.............if you finish in the top half this season, then you will have been one of our harder games - FACT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

but also, not a fact at all, unless you live in cobbler78's fantasy universe.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: RoversInPeace on October 03, 2017, 17:07:00 pm
all of the above doesn't matter with this foolproof system.............if you finish in the top half this season, then you will have been one of our harder games - FACT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

but also, not a fact at all, unless you live in cobbler78's fantasy universe.

We are a completely different team away compared to home
At home we play like a top half/playoff side. Away we play like relegation fodder.
Our home record last season was 13/6/4. And away 5/6/12. Definitely a much easier game if you're hosting us rather then coming to the Mem.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Poggy on October 03, 2017, 17:08:31 pm
We are a completely different team away compared to home
At home we play like a top half/playoff side. Away we play like relegation fodder.
Our home record last season was 13/6/4. And away 5/6/12. Definitely a much easier game if you're hosting us rather then coming to the Mem.

I think memories of our trip there last season are still quite fresh.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WadeyCobbler on October 08, 2017, 09:19:26 am
If yesterday was one of the easier games, cripes, I'd rather play have the harder ones are lose 1-0 or scrape 0-0......
We're in the bottom four on a poor run on the back of our second worst home league defeat EVER, everyone else will see us as one of their easier games. Wimbledon will be a marker of where we are heading.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 08, 2017, 09:45:43 am
I was hoping for a positive result, especially at home. Disappointed is an understatement, but the stats don't lie, still no points against any top half teams and all 8 points against bottom half teams. Massive game against the real Dons next week, if we don't win that I might start getting concerned. As it is, I'm still hopeful of a mid table finish, as it stands of our 12 games, 11 have been teams in the top 15, only one from the bottom 9, so as I said EASIER GAMES STILL TO COME, October is a huge month for us.

Vs top half 0 pts from 8 games (projection 0 from 24)
Vs bottom half 8 pts from 4 games (projection 44 from 22)
Projection 44 from 46 - relegation


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest2235 on October 08, 2017, 10:46:23 am
You might hope for a mid-table finish but surely you canít be confident? We havenít scored a league goal for over eight hours ffs!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 08, 2017, 11:33:55 am
You might hope for a mid-table finish but surely you canít be confident? We havenít scored a league goal for over eight hours ffs!

Yeah, I am confident we'll finish higher and with more point than last year. I'm sure there are at least 7 or 8 worse team than us in this league.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: West Stand on October 08, 2017, 18:03:41 pm
So when we kicked off yesterday Rovers were 14th so it was going to be an 'easier' game. Now Rovers are 12th it was a hard game.What if Rovers drop to 13th next week? Does it become an easy game again?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on October 08, 2017, 19:08:01 pm
We're on course to finish on 30-31 points, statistically speaking.  :P


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 08, 2017, 20:12:49 pm
So when we kicked off yesterday Rovers were 14th so it was going to be an 'easier' game. Now Rovers are 12th it was a hard game.What if Rovers drop to 13th next week? Does it become an easy game again?

You're over complicating things, frankly, that's the last thing you should be doing.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BedsCobb on October 08, 2017, 21:21:35 pm
4 from the botton 9 will go down so the odds of survival are slightly in our favour 😂
We are still to play 15 games against these fellow strugglers, thats 45 points right there added to the 8 that we have already bagged = 53 and safety😉
Joking asides we need to target these must not lose games and get a siege mentality going for every game we play from now on.
Its going to the wire and we need 52 pponts.
2 blocks of 4 with any of waters lobjot long or lacifanio leading the attack, Richards or revell coming in after the hour.
My prediction is Cobblers to survive on goal difference.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on October 08, 2017, 21:45:23 pm

Wimbledon will be a marker of where we are heading.


5 goals from AFC in 12 games, FIVE! If we can't show some kind of rebound and nick even a scrappy 1 v 0 win with another OG then I think we'll all know where we are heading. On the flip side, after yesterday I am sure that AFC are looking at us as an opportunity to kick start their season and boost their goal tally.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on October 09, 2017, 08:40:08 am
We are the easier game!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on October 09, 2017, 09:57:30 am
In each division there is always a team that is easier to play than all of the others.
If you cannot identify who that team is, it is you.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 09, 2017, 14:07:16 pm
We are the easier game!

Last time I checked we can't play ourself, unfortunately!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on October 09, 2017, 14:25:54 pm
This thread has become as pointless as the development thread and has reminded me why I haven't been posting for a while.

When you are actually as **** as us we would be hard pressed to find any 'easier' game.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on October 09, 2017, 14:40:50 pm
Last time I checked we can't play ourself, unfortunately!
We'd end up losing twice


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on October 09, 2017, 16:13:01 pm
4 from the botton 9 will go down so the odds of survival are slightly in our favour 😂
We are still to play 15 games against these fellow strugglers, thats 45 points right there added to the 8 that we have already bagged = 53 and safety😉
Joking asides we need to target these must not lose games and get a siege mentality going for every game we play from now on.
Its going to the wire and we need 52 pponts.
2 blocks of 4 with any of waters lobjot long or lacifanio leading the attack, Richards or revell coming in after the hour.
My prediction is Cobblers to survive on goal difference.

Thats quite readable BC - nice change.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on October 09, 2017, 16:16:17 pm
Looks like Cobb78 is having to re-arrange his jigsaw..


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on October 09, 2017, 17:51:27 pm
The way we are going, at the end of the season every game should have been a hard one...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: The 12th Marquis of Sixfields on October 09, 2017, 17:55:31 pm
Is this still going on?!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on October 10, 2017, 08:46:06 am
Is this still going on?!

We've been waiting for an easy game.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 09:15:55 am
We've been waiting for an easy game.

And finally it's here on Saturday, not a moment too soon as people were starting to worry!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 10, 2017, 09:49:32 am
The way we are going, at the end of the season every game should have been a hard one...

incorrect - when we finish bottom - we will have played 24 hard games against the top 12, but 22 easy games against the bottom half (excluding us).


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on October 10, 2017, 10:09:31 am
And finally it's here on Saturday, not a moment too soon as people were starting to worry!
Based on the assumption that this will be our first 'easy' game that will be 1 in 13 so statistically we will play 3.54 easy games this season. Using a basic rounding rule (as cannot play 0.54 of a game) 'easy' games will provide 12 of the magically 52 points so we would need to get 40 points from hard games


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: DrillingCobbler on October 10, 2017, 10:35:07 am
 ;D ;D ;D

This really isn't hard guys.

Top half (1st-12th) = harder games.
Bottom half (13th-24th) = easier games.

Cobblers78 'model' is simply a rather simplistic theory that we will pick up considerably more points versus the bottom had teams than the top half teams. Whether that happens or not (it most likely will but its of course not guaranteed), we won't know until the final table after 46 games.

All he's doing in the meantime is a projection, based on current standings.

We've currently played 8 of the top half - zero points. (8 defeats)
We've currently played 4 from the bottom half - 8 points (2 wins and 2 draws)

All he's bloody doing is using the mid way point in the division as a cut off.

He's also not saying we will win on Saturday, just that its classified (as things stand) as an easier game so our chances statistically are higher. And that because of the way the fixture list has been so far this season, he's not surprised we are low down because of the harder run of games we've had.

i've had a fair few disagreements with him but its laughable that you's lot don't get this!  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 10:35:28 am
incorrect - when we finish bottom - we will have played 24 hard games against the top 12, but 22 easy games against the bottom half (excluding us).

You bloody idiot, the team top is still harder than the team in 23rd, also it's impossible for 24 teams to finish above us.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 10:39:38 am
;D ;D ;D

This really isn't hard guys.

Top half (1st-12th) = harder games.
Bottom half (13th-24th) = easier games.

Cobblers78 'model' is simply a rather simplistic theory that we will pick up considerably more points versus the bottom had teams than the top half teams. Whether that happens or not (it most likely will but its of course not guaranteed), we won't know until the final table after 46 games.

All he's doing in the meantime is a projection, based on current standings.

We've currently played 8 of the top half - zero points. (8 defeats)
We've currently played 4 from the bottom half - 8 points (2 wins and 2 draws)

All he's bloody doing is using the mid way point in the division as a cut off.

He's also not saying we will win on Saturday, just that its classified (as things stand) as an easier game so our chances statistically are higher. And that because of the way the fixture list has been so far this season, he's not surprised we are low down because of the harder run of games we've had.

i've had a fair few disagreements with him but its laughable that you's lot don't get this!  ;D

Haha, cheers. However, I assume you have met "the average Cobblers fan" at most games, if so, this explains why the numpties are still struggling, most struggle to figure out how to walk and talk at the same time!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 10, 2017, 10:48:20 am
You bloody idiot, the team top is still harder than the team in 23rd, also it's impossible for 24 teams to finish above us.

12 teams in the top half - 24 games
11 teams in the bottom half - 22 games

23 teams above us, 46 games - at what point am i the bloody idiot?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 11:10:53 am
Based on the assumption that this will be our first 'easy' game that will be 1 in 13 so statistically we will play 3.54 easy games this season. Using a basic rounding rule (as cannot play 0.54 of a game) 'easy' games will provide 12 of the magically 52 points so we would need to get 40 points from hard games

See above as proof of the walking and talking analogy 😂😂


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 11:13:41 am
12 teams in the top half - 24 games
11 teams in the bottom half - 22 games

23 teams above us, 46 games - at what point am i the bloody idiot?


Applogies, you didn't say 24 teams above us, my mistake. In my defence, the first point you made led me to believe you were slightly slower than you actually are.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on October 10, 2017, 11:19:48 am
See above as proof of the walking and talking analogy
What part of what I said is statistically incorrect?

Drilling....
No one disputes that at the end of the season we are more likely to have secured more points against the bottom half than the top, that makes sense.
No one disputes that teams towards the bottom on match day are potentially easier than those towards the top
What is being ridiculed is looking back at the end of the season to determine if a game was easy or hard possibly 9 months after the game


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 11:42:46 am

What is being ridiculed is looking back at the end of the season to determine if a game was easy or hard possibly 9 months after the game

So stop doing that then!

Are Bradford more likely to finish top or bottom half?

Are Wimbledon more likely to finish top or bottom half?

Which of these two teams are we more likely to get more points from? And why do you suppose this is the case?



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on October 10, 2017, 11:53:07 am
And yet, the facts say otherwise, just like they did last season. I'll bet anyone on here that come the end of the season, we pick up more points per game against the teams below us than those above us. You know why, because they are easier.

You keep changing the goalposts, top half/bottom half or those above or below us?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 10, 2017, 11:58:43 am
It's not that people don't understand the mechanics of what C78 is saying. That is obvious.

What people are questioning is the value of it. I mean, it's pretty much stating the obvious that on paper, player the team in 23rd should be easier than playing the team in 2nd. Noone disputes that at face value and at with just the static table to look at, C78s "grand theory" is not really open to debate.

Where it all falls apart though is on the fringes, where are team can be climbing from 24th to 13th on the back of an unbeaten run, or vice versa. In either case, those teams are actually probably the opposite category than which this fools guide suggests.

Also, the theory fails to take account that as teams move from hard to easy, or vice versa, C78 is moving the points tally. So where a few weeks ago we had collected a point from the team in the top half and therefore had a positive average against hard teams, that team must have now slipped into the bottom half as now we appear to have no points against a top half team? This is where his theory really falls down because he is constantly moving the goalposts to suit his own design. The strength of his theory relies on proving its harder to take points off teams in the top half. Well it's impossible when he takes the point(s) we did achieve away!

With this type of statistic (or any for that matter) you have to take the outcome of an event at the point it occurs. He isn't and therefore, the theory holds no water and in the eyes of anyone who knows anything about statistical analysis, has no credibility.

All he is really saying is, look at the table - if we're playing a team in the bottom half it should be easier to get a result because they're not as good as the teams in the top half. Well thanks buddy....

But in terms of projections, his are rubbish because he isn't applying the basic laws of statistical analysis

This thread should really end here in terms of being of any analytical use but i'm sure he'll try and come up with something. Probably using the word FACT


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 10, 2017, 12:11:20 pm
All he is really saying is, look at the table - if we're playing a team in the bottom half it should be easier to get a result because they're not as good as the teams in the top half. Well thanks buddy....

incorrect - you have to wait until the end of season, when the table is finalised and then and only then can you determine if a game was an easy game or a hard game - as you mentioned yourself, i think, if a team starts the day in the bottom half, then beats us and moves into the top half they would have started the game as an easy game but finished it as a harder game

so, wait until the end of the season, when we can look back and say that the 3-1 win at home v pompey was a really tough game, but the 6-0 loss to bristol rovers was a piece of ****.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 10, 2017, 12:12:03 pm
Applogies, you didn't say 24 teams above us, my mistake. In my defence, the first point you made led me to believe you were slightly slower than you actually are.

having to slow myself down for you to be honest.

its like a 5 year old coming up with a theory for how the season will pan out.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 10, 2017, 12:21:01 pm
incorrect - you have to wait until the end of season, when the table is finalised and then and only then can you determine if a game was an easy game or a hard game - as you mentioned yourself, i think, if a team starts the day in the bottom half, then beats us and moves into the top half they would have started the game as an easy game but finished it as a harder game

so, wait until the end of the season, when we can look back and say that the 3-1 win at home v pompey was a really tough game, but the 6-0 loss to bristol rovers was a piece of ****.

I'm not defending him but I think he is reassessing using the table as it stands at the time. What you say is true from the perspective that you wouldn't get a final view using his theory until the final game was played (another reason why it is guff).

But so he can keep his circus in town, he reassesses after each game. He must be to do his projections - unless he has a crystal ball..... I'm guessing doing the maths of using a more realistic moving average is just a bit too hard for him. I still don't even think he understands it at a conceptual level let alone in practice.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: DrillingCobbler on October 10, 2017, 12:28:18 pm
What part of what I said is statistically incorrect?

Drilling....
No one disputes that at the end of the season we are more likely to have secured more points against the bottom half than the top, that makes sense.
No one disputes that teams towards the bottom on match day are potentially easier than those towards the top
What is being ridiculed is looking back at the end of the season to determine if a game was easy or hard possibly 9 months after the game

Its just a projection, thats all. People are complicating something really simple!

If Lewis Hamilton is leading the grand prix after 10 laps, it doesn't mean he's going to win the race. However, statistically theres a better chance than if he was in 15th place!

The problem with this thread (to continue the F1 analogy) is that people are going on about pit stops, what tyres he's started on, the possibility of a pace car coming out etc!  ;D

Ultimately, his model did show up well last season so he's just seeing if it does this season!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 10, 2017, 12:42:15 pm
Its just a projection, thats all. People are complicating something really simple!

If Lewis Hamilton is leading the grand prix after 10 laps, it doesn't mean he's going to win the race. However, statistically theres a better chance than if he was in 15th place!

The problem with this thread (to continue the F1 analogy) is that people are going on about pit stops, what tyres he's started on, the possibility of a pace car coming out etc!  ;D

Ultimately, his model did show up well last season so he's just seeing if it does this season!

I think my main annoyance is him purporting everything he says as FACT and that therefore he and only he can be right. Like saying the sky is blue. Which it is.

Apart from when it's cloudy.

Or at night.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 13:07:54 pm
incorrect - you have to wait until the end of season, when the table is finalised and then and only then can you determine if a game was an easy game or a hard game - as you mentioned yourself, i think, if a team starts the day in the bottom half, then beats us and moves into the top half they would have started the game as an easy game but finished it as a harder game


Another who struggles with walking and talking.

So at the moment if a random mid table Premiership side (Stoke for example) we to play Man City and Crystal Palace on consecutive weekend, both games would be considered the same chance of getting as result as you will only know which game is harder at the end of the season? Give me strength 😂😂


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 13:09:09 pm
having to slow myself down for you to be honest.

its like a 5 year old coming up with a theory for how the season will pan out.

And yet you're still struggling, says it all really.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 13:11:39 pm
I think my main annoyance is him purporting everything he says as FACT and that therefore he and only he can be right. Like saying the sky is blue. Which it is.

Apart from when it's cloudy.

Or at night.

Simple question, how many points have we got against teams currently in the top half of L1. By the way, this will be a FACT.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on October 10, 2017, 13:13:43 pm
Why are we all still feeding this?

Stop replying (which I will do after this) and there will no reason for 78 to keep spouting on.

Let him argue with himself about who makes an easier game and when.

The FACT of the matter is we are just actually **** and are every team's easiest game.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 13:20:08 pm
Why are we all still feeding this?

Stop replying (which I will do after this) and there will no reason for 78 to keep spouting on.

Let him argue with himself about who makes an easier game and when.

The FACT of the matter is we are just actually **** and are every team's easiest game.

1) I won't argue with myself as I'm correct
2) We can't play ourselves
3) The facts won't change, we have easier games coming up


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 10, 2017, 13:20:13 pm
Another who struggles with walking and talking.

So at the moment if a random mid table Premiership side (Stoke for example) we to play Man City and Crystal Palace on consecutive weekend, both games would be considered the same chance of getting as result as you will only know which game is harder at the end of the season? Give me strength 😂😂

they were your rules - you wont know which was harder or which was easier until the table is final at the end of the season - according to your system.

you are the one who changes the system after every game, as opposed to where teams were in the league when we played them.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 10, 2017, 13:21:29 pm
1) I won't argue with myself as I'm correct
2) We can't play ourselves
3) The facts won't change, we have easier games coming up

3) they aren't facts, they are your opinions, and they do change, depending on the amendments you make after every set of fixtures.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 13:22:16 pm
they were your rules - you wont know which was harder or which was easier until the table is final at the end of the season - according to your system.

you are the one who changes the system after every game, as opposed to where teams were in the league when we played them.

System has never changed, after each game I work out the results against top half teams compared to bottom half. The result is ALWAYS the same, this unfortunately for you is a fact.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 10, 2017, 13:23:49 pm
Simple question, how many points have we got against teams currently in the top half of L1. By the way, this will be a FACT.

Finally, you walk into your own trap....

The simple FACT you keep choosing to ignore is that if we gain points against a team that were in the top half when we played them, we cannot lose them if that team slips into the bottom half later in the season. They were a "hard" game when we played them. They can't become and "easy" game after the event! That is a FACT

Out of interest, first game of the season, which half of the table were Shrewsbury?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 13:29:36 pm
Finally, you walk into your own trap....

The simple FACT you keep choosing to ignore is that if we gain points against a team that were in the top half when we played them, we cannot lose them if that team slips into the bottom half later in the season. They were a "hard" game when we played them. They can't become and "easy" game after the event! That is a FACT

Out of interest, first game of the season, which half of the table were Shrewsbury?

Alphabetical order? Really? So Albania are better than England who are better than Spain? Sometimes there is no point arguing with idiots, they'll just drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 10, 2017, 13:29:59 pm
Finally, you walk into your own trap....

The simple FACT you keep choosing to ignore is that if we gain points against a team that were in the top half when we played them, we cannot lose them if that team slips into the bottom half later in the season. They were a "hard" game when we played them. They can't become and "easy" game after the event! That is a FACT

Out of interest, first game of the season, which half of the table were Shrewsbury?

leave him alone WasRambo........it's too easy to pick holes in his allegedly infallible system - that he has made up to suit himself.

i say made up, it's definitely FACT.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 10, 2017, 13:36:15 pm
System has never changed, after each game I work out the results against top half teams compared to bottom half. The result is ALWAYS the same, this unfortunately for you is a fact.

when we played doncaster - they were 12th - so a harder game, then we beat them, and they dropped to 13th, which, if we played them again the following game would make them an easier game - the FACT is that when we played them they were a harder game.

if you take the table after the game, then it is essentially irrelevant.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 10, 2017, 13:38:48 pm
To clear this up once and for all and to give C78 the gram of credit his "theory" deserves...

When he looks at the table he makes a judgement using the most simple form of information available to him (no comment on ability to process more complex data). A team in the bottom half is easier to get a result against than a team in the top half. At face value and ignoring form, injuries, suspensions and all the other variables that can affect a game, this is a normal expectation.

However, C78s PROJECTIONS are 100% inaccurate and a total NON-FACT because he does not use a true basis for that projection and that last statement is the only FACT in the whole of this thread. Despite having it made clear a thousand times over, you can't change the status of a fixture from easy to hard or vice versa, once it has taken place.

C78, you've become the David Icke of this message board over this single "theory". I admire doggedness up to a point but this is verging on insanity now.

I'm retiring from this now as I'll start meeting the definition of mad if I keep using the same explanation and expecting a different outcome.....


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: DrillingCobbler on October 10, 2017, 13:46:10 pm
The early signs (table is only 12 games old) are that we are likely to move up the table in the coming weeks based on this model. This is because we have taken points off of each of the 4 'bottom half teams' that we have played so far, and we have a number of games coming up where we play teams in the bottom half.

He's not using it as a model to bet on, its not even worth arguing about!  ;D

More a case that whilst we are currently in the bottom4, that probably isn't a fair reflection of our true standing in the division. That part I agree with, and that is based purely on results from the games we have played factoring in the quality of opposition. Of course it doesn't factor in change of managers, injuries, form, all sorts of things. But as an overall average its hard to disagree with him based on understanding it in the first place!

I didn't agree with his Page V JE comparison last season for reasons I explained at the time. But to be fair, and given hindsight, its hard to argue using stats as your main form of defence! I just think the honeymoon period we enjoyed under JE (which ironically was when we played a few of the sh1t teams) was enough to shove us towards the line. We now are in a similar situation with JFH where by we got off to a good start (2 wins and a draw) but a few weeks down the line and a little more stats to analyses from, there is no statistical evidence to suggest we have actually overall improved since sacking JE because we've only scored points when we've played bad sides, something JE didn't benefit from in his 4 games in charge at the start of the season!




Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 13:46:56 pm
To clear this up once and for all and to give C78 the gram of credit his "theory" deserves...

When he looks at the table he makes a judgement using the most simple form of information available to him (no comment on ability to process more complex data). A team in the bottom half is easier to get a result against than a team in the top half. At face value and ignoring form, injuries, suspensions and all the other variables that can affect a game, this is a normal expectation.

However, C78s PROJECTIONS are 100% inaccurate and a total NON-FACT because he does not use a true basis for that projection and that last statement is the only FACT in the whole of this thread. Despite having it made clear a thousand times over, you can't change the status of a fixture from easy to hard or vice versa, once it has taken place.

C78, you've become the David Icke of this message board over this single "theory". I admire doggedness up to a point but this is verging on insanity now.

I'm retiring from this now as I'll start meeting the definition of mad if I keep using the same explanation and expecting a different outcome.....

Correct, it really is a very simplistic, basic, non scientific theory, anything more than that would confuse most on here (no offense to you)

The fact it's still proving accurate must clearly just be a coincidence.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 10, 2017, 13:47:45 pm
i'm betting on it every game!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on October 10, 2017, 14:01:41 pm
Correct, it really is a very simplistic, basic, non scientific theory, anything more than that would confuse most on here (no offense to you)

The fact it's still proving accurate must clearly just be a coincidence.
Was Bristol an easy game?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 14:09:34 pm
Was Bristol an easy game?

Easier than Charlton, Bradford or Wigan away. I was hopeful of a positive result, shame really.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 10, 2017, 14:23:39 pm
Was Bristol an easy game?

they were when we kicked off, but under this system, that doesn't matter, at full time they had moved into the top half with a win so became a harder game, but not at the time we actually played then, if only we had known they were going to be a harder game before we kicked off then we could've planned accordingly - maybe this is why JFH chose to pick the team he did?!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on October 10, 2017, 14:42:52 pm
they were when we kicked off, but under this system, that doesn't matter, at full time they had moved into the top half with a win so became a harder game, but not at the time we actually played then, if only we had known they were going to be a harder game before we kicked off then we could've planned accordingly - maybe this is why JFH chose to pick the team he did?!


At the moment there is a fair chance that anyone we play just below mid table could find themselves above mid table after the final whistle. Doesn't mean we were unlucky to have suddenly played more teams when they were in the top half of the table, it just means that we are pretty ****.

God forbid we get stuffed again or that it ends up 5 v 5 on Saturday as there'd be some kind of global statistical meltdown.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest2235 on October 10, 2017, 21:34:11 pm
Correct, it really is a very simplistic, basic, non scientific theory, anything more than that would confuse most on here (no offense to you)

The fact it's still proving accurate must clearly just be a coincidence.
You accuse some cobblers supporters of being unable to walk and talk, I suggest you check your spelling, it could make you appear thick (no offence)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 10, 2017, 23:54:35 pm
You accuse some cobblers supporters of being unable to walk and talk, I suggest you check your spelling, it could make you appear thick (no offence)

Fair point 🙈


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Saint Cobbler on October 11, 2017, 12:24:21 pm
i'm betting on it every game!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How much have you won or lost so far? Also, could we use this theory for every other team? In which case happy days!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 11, 2017, 12:33:58 pm
How much have you won or lost so far? Also, could we use this theory for every other team? In which case happy days!

won nothing
lost nothing
betted nothing

its a made up opinion of one person


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on October 11, 2017, 13:11:14 pm
How much have you won or lost so far? Also, could we use this theory for every other team? In which case happy days!

Sadly, bookies are already onto this. If Man Utd were to play Northampton for example (a much harder game for ourselves), the odds would be so short on a Utd win that it wouldn't be worth doing.

They've been onto this easier games theory for years now.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 11, 2017, 17:10:56 pm
Sadly, bookies are already onto this. If Man Utd were to play Northampton for example (a much harder game for ourselves), the odds would be so short on a Utd win that it wouldn't be worth doing.

They've been onto this easier games theory for years now.

No such thing as easier game if you listen to the geniuses on here!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on October 11, 2017, 18:34:27 pm
No such thing as easier game if you listen to the geniuses on here!
The phrase is no such thing as an easy game. There are easier games, but not easy games.

Geniuses or Genii?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 11, 2017, 18:41:32 pm
The phrase is no such thing as an easy game. There are easier games, but not easy games.

Geniuses or Genii?

Isn't that what I've always said? Easier.

Geniuses.......I made sure I checked my facts 😉


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 14, 2017, 18:05:23 pm
Concerning result today, the first time this season I've been worried about staying up, however, trying to keep positive with the fact a number of first 11 players are out injured, two big away games coming up against fellow strugglers. As it stands, I'd be over the moon with 2 draws!!

Vs Top half 3 points from 8 games (proj 9pts)
Vs Bottom half 5 points from 5 games (proj 22points)

Total Projection 31 points = Relegation


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: FezNTFC on October 14, 2017, 18:31:56 pm

Total Projection 31 points = Relegation
:-X


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on October 14, 2017, 18:56:05 pm
Concerning result today, the first time this season I've been worried about staying up, however, trying to keep positive with the fact a number of first 11 players are out injured, two big away games coming up against fellow strugglers. As it stands, I'd be over the moon with 2 draws!!

Vs Top half 3 points from 8 games (proj 9pts)
Vs Bottom half 5 points from 5 games (proj 22points)

Total Projection 31 points = Relegation

Just two weeks ago the projection was the playoffs! Maybe a win next week and we'll be projected to be champions?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WadeyCobbler on October 14, 2017, 20:21:49 pm
These easier games are going well  ???


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 15, 2017, 13:37:55 pm
These easier games are going well  ???

They are going significantly better than the harder games, but still not well enough. On paper October look like a real chance to move up the league. Maybe these two away games will be a blessing so we can sit back and use Hoskins and Waters pace on the break as they are obviously not target men.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: GrangeParkCobbler on October 15, 2017, 16:49:21 pm
There wasn't going to be an easier game than AFC Wimbledon at home, a team who had never beaten us since they came into the league (12 games) and had failed to score in their last 4 games, and had also only scored five league goals all season. We even managed to lose that!!!

We haven't won away in 7 months..........and now we have got back to back away games.......no easy games for us at the moment!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on October 15, 2017, 16:51:20 pm
There wasn't going to be an easier game than AFC Wimbledon at home, a team who had never beaten us since they came into the league (12 games) and had failed to score in their last 4 games, and had also only scored five league goals all season. We even managed to lose that!!!

And they looked really bad. Can see us both going down.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 15, 2017, 19:59:37 pm
They are going significantly better than the harder games, but still not well enough. On paper October look like a real chance to move up the league. Maybe these two away games will be a blessing so we can sit back and use Hoskins and Waters pace on the break as they are obviously not target men.
You said at the beginning of this month that the easier games begin NOW, FACT.
Our next league game then resulted in a 0-6 loss to Bristol Rovers, the second worst home league defeat in our entire history. That was followed up yesterday with an abject performance and loss to Wimbledon, who's form and head to head history against us is summarised by Grange.
And yet you now believe these two games, predicted by you as easier fixtures, have gone 'significantly' better than the games which proceeded them...games predicted by you as harder fixtures.
Do you wonder why people on here struggle to take you seriously?





Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 15, 2017, 21:43:41 pm
There wasn't going to be an easier game than AFC Wimbledon at home, a team who had never beaten us since they came into the league (12 games) and had failed to score in their last 4 games, and had also only scored five league goals all season. We even managed to lose that!!!

We haven't won away in 7 months..........and now we have got back to back away games.......no easy games for us at the moment!!

Agreed.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 15, 2017, 21:45:16 pm
You said at the beginning of this month that the easier games begin NOW, FACT.
Our next league game then resulted in a 0-6 loss to Bristol Rovers, the second worst home league defeat in our entire history. That was followed up yesterday with an abject performance and loss to Wimbledon, who's form and head to head history against us is summarised by Grange.
And yet you now believe these two games, predicted by you as easier fixtures, have gone 'significantly' better than the games which proceeded them...games predicted by you as harder fixtures.
Do you wonder why people on here struggle to take you seriously?





You're confusing what I said. What I said still stands, our points per game vs bottom half teams is still significantly better than vs top half teams.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 15, 2017, 21:53:10 pm
You're confusing what I said. What I said still stands, our points per game vs bottom half teams is still significantly better than vs top half teams.

Of course it still stands!!!

Why would it not!?!?!?!

Hahahahaha hahaha

At least you give us some light relief in our hour of total darkness!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 15, 2017, 21:56:02 pm
Concerning result today, the first time this season I've been worried about staying up, however, trying to keep positive with the fact a number of first 11 players are out injured, two big away games coming up against fellow strugglers. As it stands, I'd be over the moon with 2 draws!!

Vs Top half 3 points from 8 games (proj 9pts)
Vs Bottom half 5 points from 5 games (proj 22points)

Total Projection 31 points = Relegation

Is this the actual first time that you are admitting injuries and short term form have an impact on results????


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 15, 2017, 21:58:13 pm
There wasn't going to be an easier game than AFC Wimbledon at home, a team who had never beaten us since they came into the league (12 games) and had failed to score in their last 4 games, and had also only scored five league goals all season. We even managed to lose that!!!

We haven't won away in 7 months..........and now we have got back to back away games.......no easy games for us at the moment!!

+1


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest2487 on October 15, 2017, 21:59:53 pm
This thread should be closed as it's proven to be bollocks.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Buster on October 15, 2017, 22:00:38 pm
You're confusing what I said. What I said still stands, our points per game vs bottom half teams is still significantly better than vs top half teams.

No, what you actually said was we'd get more points per game against teams below us than from those above us.  Well as it stands all of our points so far have come from teams above us...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Saint Cobbler on October 15, 2017, 23:20:40 pm
This thread should be closed as it's proven to be bollocks.
No it shouldn't, it's the only light relief amongst all the gloom.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 15, 2017, 23:38:32 pm
You're confusing what I said. What I said still stands, our points per game vs bottom half teams is still significantly better than vs top half teams.
No I haven't confused anything you've said.
In this instance you predicted our easier games would start two weeks ago. Right or wrong Cobbler78?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 15, 2017, 23:42:37 pm
No I haven't confused anything you've said.
In this instance you predicted our easier games would start two weeks ago. Right or wrong Cobbler78?


Correct. What's your point?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 15, 2017, 23:43:42 pm
No, what you actually said was we'd get more points per game against teams below us than from those above us.  Well as it stands all of our points so far have come from teams above us...

How many games have we played against team below us?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 15, 2017, 23:44:33 pm
Is this the actual first time that you are admitting injuries and short term form have an impact on results????

Have I ever denied that?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 15, 2017, 23:57:58 pm
Correct. What's your point?
That you've previously denied making predictions, that instead you were just stating facts that easier games were about to start and you were wrong. What is it with the empirical evidence that you struggle with?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on October 16, 2017, 08:57:24 am
That you've previously denied making predictions, that instead you were just stating facts that easier games were about to start and you were wrong. What is it with the empirical evidence that you struggle with?

You're over complicating it. The fact we're now losing to the easier teams in the division is a real marker point as to how we are performing. This has been reflected in the update predicted final points calculation.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 16, 2017, 10:27:15 am
That you've previously denied making predictions, that instead you were just stating facts that easier games were about to start and you were wrong. What is it with the empirical evidence that you struggle with?

Not wrong at all mate, Wimbledon at home is one of the easiest games we'll have this season......that's the worry.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on October 16, 2017, 11:24:57 am
I think that this thread and C78 saying the teams are easier to beat is being used by opposition managers as a team talk to spur their players on.

Its also being used by JFH as proof the games are easier in his team talk so the players go out expecting a win.

Essentially its all C78's fault!  ;)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 16, 2017, 12:00:46 pm
Not wrong at all mate, Wimbledon at home is one of the easiest games we'll have this season......that's the worry.

So is the formula now suggesting that among the easier games, some are more easy than others?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on October 16, 2017, 12:15:27 pm
Can we rehash this thread into a paperback, a bit like Jeremy Clarkson does with his Sunday Times columns. Itís a bloody good read.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 16, 2017, 12:35:53 pm
So is the formula now suggesting that among the easier games, some are more easy than others?

Nope, some results are more disappointing than others. To explain for those struggling at the back (you know who you are) losing to Wimbledon at home is more disappointing than losing to Charlton, Bradford or Wigan away.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Terryfenwickatemyhamster on October 16, 2017, 12:44:37 pm
Nope, some results are more disappointing than others. To explain for those struggling at the back (you know who you are) losing to Wimbledon at home is more disappointing than losing to Charlton, Bradford or Wigan away.

 ;D ;D

Is it still ok to carry on with this regardless of the fact that it has more holes than swiss cheese?? And was never anything more than akin to agreeing that white paint is actually white.

Of course it is. As long as a few burks are happy to fan the flames it has legs.  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 16, 2017, 12:59:10 pm
I just wait for the most stupidly obvious statements now, rather than replying to them all.

That said, that doesn't actually rule out so many.

Worth a visit here and there though just for C78's teacher act..... "Those at the back" haha.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on October 16, 2017, 13:45:04 pm
I can't be bothered to look back...has anyone actually agreed with Cobbler78's method?  Also if he was born in 1978 it makes it even more embarassing.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 16, 2017, 13:51:08 pm
Nope, some results are more disappointing than others. To explain for those struggling at the back (you know who you are) losing to Wimbledon at home is more disappointing than losing to Charlton, Bradford or Wigan away.

all defeats are equally disappointing to me.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 16, 2017, 13:52:00 pm
I can't be bothered to look back...has anyone actually agreed with Cobbler78's method?  Also if he was born in 1978 it makes it even more embarassing.

no point until the end of the season when we know for definite (according to the method) who the easier games were, and who the harder games were.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 16, 2017, 14:06:48 pm
no point until the end of the season when we know for definite (according to the method) who the easier games were, and who the harder games were.


Surely even the slowest on here realise Wimbledon at home should be easier to get a result than an ex Championship team away.....surely? Actually, maybe not.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 16, 2017, 14:09:02 pm
I can't be bothered to look back...has anyone actually agreed with Cobbler78's method?  Also if he was born in 1978 it makes it even more embarassing.

Plenty, the few still arguing that I am wrong are showing themselves up for who they are, and I bet they all sit Upper West Stand, south end with "discounted" tickets!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on October 16, 2017, 14:56:30 pm
Ok I'm intrigued by the last point, why does everyone in the upper West / South have discounted tickets?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on October 16, 2017, 15:27:32 pm
Plenty, the few still arguing that I am wrong are showing themselves up for who they are, and I bet they all sit Upper West Stand, south end with "discounted" tickets!

You started this thread on 12th September AFTER the Portsmouth game. The thread is 'Easier Games to come'

Since then we have played, played 7, won 0, drew 2, lost 5. Scored 2 conceded 12.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 16, 2017, 19:11:21 pm
;D ;D

Is it still ok to carry on with this regardless of the fact that it has more holes than swiss cheese?? And was never anything more than akin to agreeing that white paint is actually white.

Of course it is. As long as a few burks are happy to fan the flames it has legs.  ;D
Oh but it once was more than that Tel. As a mod, you'll be aware that when C78's 'easier games' offerings first raised their ugly heads it was his attempt at offering an argument for Page keeping his job.
Having played with several balls and moved the goalposts in the interim, it has now become his jigsaw and he will be complete it at season end.
I for one don't think anyone should take that away from him.

Play on maestro.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 16, 2017, 19:58:40 pm
You started this thread on 12th September AFTER the Portsmouth game. The thread is 'Easier Games to come'

Since then we have played, played 7, won 0, drew 2, lost 5. Scored 2 conceded 12.

Exactly. What's your point?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 16, 2017, 19:59:54 pm
Exactly. What's your point?

The thread is utter bulls***, please close it down!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 16, 2017, 20:00:39 pm
Oh but it once was more than that Tel. As a mod, you'll be aware that when C78's 'easier games' offerings first raised their ugly heads it was his attempt at offering an argument for Page keeping his job.
Having played with several balls and moved the goalposts in the interim, it has now become his jigsaw and he will be complete it at season end.
I for one don't think anyone should take that away from him.

Play on maestro.

Talk me through Page's record as manager and our results since please, have we improved? Was it worth paying off 2 sets of coaching staff?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 16, 2017, 20:01:34 pm
The thread is utter bulls***, please close it down!!

Just ignore it mate if you're struggling to understand it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 16, 2017, 20:54:04 pm
Talk me through Page's record as manager and our results since please, have we improved? Was it worth paying off 2 sets of coaching staff?
Jimmy has previously been a championship manager, therefore he's clearly ranked a better manger than Page and always will be. Results like 0-6 vs Bristol and the incumbant empirical evidence shouldn't detract from that. That was disappointing but nothing more. Jimmy will always be a better manager than Page.

If it can work for your easier teams/games. I'll take your formula and make it work for better/worse managers.

I'm starting my 'manager' jigsaw on my dining table right now.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 16, 2017, 21:31:29 pm
Jimmy has previously been a championship manager, therefore he's clearly ranked a better manger than Page and always will be. Results like 0-6 vs Bristol and the incumbant empirical evidence shouldn't detract from that. That was disappointing but nothing more. Jimmy will always be a better manager than Page.

If it can work for your easier teams/games. I'll take your formula and make it work for better/worse managers.

I'm starting my 'manager' jigsaw on my dining table right now.

Wow, you really have tied yourself up in knots and confused yourself with this simple idea that we have a better chance of beating some teams compared to others.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 16, 2017, 21:45:49 pm
Wow, you really have tied yourself up in knots and confused yourself with this simple idea that we have a better chance of beating some teams compared to others.
Do you think so matey?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on October 16, 2017, 23:06:06 pm
Time to put this thread to bed.
Facts prove it's nonsense.
Those unequivocal facts being that we are **** poor and can't score a goal against any league one opponents going back the last month or so meaning all games are equally hard.

That I can assure you is a fact borne out of a very bad set of statistics.
A simple equation that I have formulated regards our league form over the last few games can also prove this fact.

0 goals x 0 wins =0 points
The above proves that currently we are able to make any opposition look equally hard to not only beat but even score against leading to the inevitable conclusion that at this moment in time we are in fact dog ****.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest2487 on October 16, 2017, 23:41:56 pm
Shoey, are you Okay? I fear you're close to breakdown.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on October 16, 2017, 23:56:35 pm
Shoey, are you Okay? I fear you're close to breakdown.
I'm holding it together.....
The reason being I have a terrible sense of foreboding....

The breakdown will only occur if/when we find out what our future holds.....

Over to you KT....?
Mr bower??
A couple of Chinese chaps whose names I've forgot because they seem to have been brushed under the carpet sines taking over...?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 17, 2017, 23:08:27 pm
After Rochdale away

Vs top half 3 from 8 (proj 9)
Vs bottom half 6 from 6 (proj 22)
Projection 31pts = Relegation


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BrixworthCobbler on October 18, 2017, 09:38:06 am
Who else thinks this thread will go onto be bigger than the redevelopment one?

Turning into a cult thread this is.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Saint Cobbler on October 18, 2017, 15:21:58 pm
Who else thinks this thread will go onto be bigger than the redevelopment one?

Turning into a cult thread this is.
We could be in the Premiership by then, then we would really have 'some easier games to come'.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on October 18, 2017, 15:33:57 pm
Who else thinks this thread will go onto be bigger than the redevelopment one?

Turning into a cult thread this is.

It's already quite similar. I remember bring promised a redevelopment and being severely disappointed when it arrived.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 21, 2017, 17:05:21 pm
4 points from our last 2 away games, I would hate to say "I told you so" and yet........


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on October 21, 2017, 17:12:18 pm
Cheers Nostradamus, all down to you.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 21, 2017, 17:13:55 pm
4 points from our last 2 away games, I would hate to say "I told you so" and yet........
Your predicted October easier games has produced 4 points from 4 games so far. Relegation form.
However, JFK with Qpr and Burton beats Pennock with Welling and Forest Green.
Management Top Trumps instead of your jigsaw C78?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 21, 2017, 17:42:42 pm
Your predicted October easier games has produced 4 points from 4 games so far. Relegation form.
However, JFK with Qpr and Burton beats Pennock with Welling and Forest Green.
Management Top Trumps instead of your jigsaw C78?

4 points in 4 games is better than 8 points in 11 last time I checked, and October is not yet over.

Unsure of your JFK reference.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 21, 2017, 17:46:03 pm
Vs top half 3 from 8 (proj 9)
Vs bottom half 9 from 7 (proj 28)
Projection 37pts = Relegation

The concern is we have now played a fair spread of easier and tougher games, things have improved with the easier games, however, have they improved enough? Time will tell. I'm still hopeful of a better final league position than last season.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: tcobb on October 21, 2017, 17:46:27 pm
I remember a thread like this a couple of years back. Basics are that each week a new prediction is made, each week the final league placing changes. By the end of the season nearly all the finishing positions in the league have been covered. Hence Cobbler 78 is proved correct  ;D ;D
 


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: singcobb on October 21, 2017, 17:50:20 pm
Cheers Nostradamus, all down to you.

NostradumbŠrse


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 21, 2017, 17:50:24 pm
I remember a thread like this a couple of years back. Basics are that each week a new prediction is made, each week the final league placing changes. By the end of the season nearly all the finishing positions in the league have been covered. Hence Cobbler 78 is proved correct  ;D ;D
 

But his not correct as we are just as likely to lose at home to Plymouth as we are to win away at Shrewsbury, it's all nonsense


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: tcobb on October 21, 2017, 17:57:51 pm
Of course it is, but by changing the prediction each week it will have to be correct at least once.  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on October 21, 2017, 17:59:57 pm
I canít believe this thread is still going itís comedy gold!!
Any system such as this is doomed to failure as it is unable to account for imponderable situations.
Ie) we are about to play Shrewsbury a supposed hard game.
Three days before they enter administration and the players are free to leave and a fair few do.
Is this still a hard game.

We are due to play Plymouth but a week before they are taken over by a group of Dubai businessmen and sign Messi,Ronaldo,neymar and Leon Constantine.
Is this still an easy game??

Things change weekly even daily in football terms and any real system would have to recognise this on a near day to day basis in the way bookmakers price up football bets.
They cannot rely on overall form
Ie) some results a dozen games ago.
They are betting on things as they are now.
The system that bookmakers rely on is the one which shows current form.
They look at the last three matches,no more,no less and evaluate prices by doing this.
That is why a current form table is readily available to use as a statistical guide,the reason being it is based on recent factual occurances.
No one in the betting industry odds compilers uses a harder/easier game rational.
Maybe an easier games system based on the last three matches is the holy grail you are looking for.
Far more accurate but not infallible take Huddersfield v Man Utd for example.
I bet Man Utd thought that was an easier game!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on October 21, 2017, 18:06:34 pm
Vs top half 3 from 8 (proj 9)
Vs bottom half 9 from 7 (proj 28)
Projection 37pts = Relegation

The concern is we have now played a fair spread of easier and tougher games, things have improved with the easier games, however, have they improved enough? Time will tell.
Talk about sitting on the fence. What a sack of sh!t that you talk. At what point did things improve with easier games? We fukcing lost to Wimbledon you clueless tw@t.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 21, 2017, 18:29:18 pm
But his not correct as we are just as likely to lose at home to Plymouth as we are to win away at Shrewsbury, it's all nonsense

I assume you've not heard of bookmakers and the odds they set on the outcome of matches.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 21, 2017, 18:31:21 pm
Talk about sitting on the fence. What a sack of sh!t that you talk. At what point did things improve with easier games? We fukcing lost to Wimbledon you clueless tw@t.

Speaking of clueless twats, I take it you've not seen or understood our points per game during October (easier games) compared to before this.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 21, 2017, 18:35:00 pm
I assume you've not heard of bookmakers and the odds they set on the outcome of matches.

What's that got to do with the price of fish????


Forest green for example today


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on October 21, 2017, 18:45:47 pm
Speaking of clueless twats, I take is you've not seen our points per game during October (easier games) compared to before this.
Your definition of easier games. Not mine. There are no easy games. Unless you pipe up afterwards, saying "I told you so".  You truly are a clueless twat.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 21, 2017, 18:48:41 pm
Your definition of easier games. Not mine. There are no easy games. Unless you pipe up afterwards, saying "I told you so".  You truly are a clueless twat.

Never said any game was easy.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 21, 2017, 18:50:24 pm
What's that got to do with the price of fish????


Forest green for example today

I can't be bothered, can someone else dumb this down for him.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on October 21, 2017, 19:09:13 pm
Never said any game was easy.
You sure?
Isn't that what I've always said? Easier.
Richard, you strike me as the sort of person that gets excited, every time that someone responds to your bullsh!t. Its time to rein it in mate, before you make yourself look like a complete, clueless twat.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 21, 2017, 19:48:15 pm
You sure? Richard, you strike me as the sort of person that gets excited, every time that someone responds to your bullsh!t. Its time to rein it in mate, before you make yourself look like a complete, clueless twat.


Not so much excited, more baffled how a small minority find my point so hard to comprehend. I've given up trying to explain now, some people will never understand, that's life and everyone's different. I'll just let the facts speak for themselves.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 21, 2017, 19:50:42 pm
I canít believe this thread is still going itís comedy gold!!
Any system such as this is doomed to failure as it is unable to account for imponderable situations.
Ie) we are about to play Shrewsbury a supposed hard game.
Three days before they enter administration and the players are free to leave and a fair few do.
Is this still a hard game.

We are due to play Plymouth but a week before they are taken over by a group of Dubai businessmen and sign Messi,Ronaldo,neymar and Leon Constantine.
Is this still an easy game??

Things change weekly even daily in football terms and any real system would have to recognise this on a near day to day basis in the way bookmakers price up football bets.
They cannot rely on overall form
Ie) some results a dozen games ago.
They are betting on things as they are now.
The system that bookmakers rely on is the one which shows current form.
They look at the last three matches,no more,no less and evaluate prices by doing this.
That is why a current form table is readily available to use as a statistical guide,the reason being it is based on recent factual occurances.
No one in the betting industry odds compilers uses a harder/easier game rational.
Maybe an easier games system based on the last three matches is the holy grail you are looking for.
Far more accurate but not infallible take Huddersfield v Man Utd for example.
I bet Man Utd thought that was an easier game!!
The points you make are valid ones but you've entered this discussion a little late old boy. This game kicked off at midday, lasts for twelve hours, and I'm guessing we have about five mins plus injury time left...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 21, 2017, 20:04:49 pm
4 points in 4 games is better than 8 points in 11 last time I checked, and October is not yet over.

Unsure of your JFK reference.


Really? So 4/4 from your easier games is considered by you to be a better return than 8/11 from your harder games. How do you allow for the variables within whatever mathematical formula you use to determine that conclusion?
Jfk has now been changed to Jfh in my autospell  :)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on October 21, 2017, 20:07:29 pm
I've given up trying to explain now.
Thank fcuk for that. You truly are a boring twat.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: singcobb on October 21, 2017, 20:20:13 pm
I can see where 78 is coming from, but there is madness in his method. The basis of easier games purely on leaue position is flawed. Eg. a game against a team in the upper half of the league would be harder, but this does not take into account that that team may have five of it's top players suspended or injured at the time we play them. Conversly playing the side that is bottom(assuming this is not us) with five of our best out of the team results in the same flawed logic.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on October 21, 2017, 20:26:46 pm
I can see where 78 is coming from, but there is madness in his method. The basis of easier games purely on leaue position is flawed. Eg. a game against a team in the upper half of the league would be harder, but this does not take into account that that team may have five of it's top players suspended or injured at the time we play them. Conversly playing the side that is bottom(assuming this is not us) with five of our best out of the team results in the same flawed logic.

Come on. Anyone with a working brain would think playing a team higher in the league is harder than one that is lower.
Why complicate it?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on October 21, 2017, 20:27:17 pm
I can see where 78 is coming from, but there is madness in his method. The basis of easier games purely on leaue position is flawed. Eg. a game against a team in the upper half of the league would be harder, but this does not take into account that that team may have five of it's top players suspended or injured at the time we play them. Conversly playing the side that is bottom(assuming this is not us) with five of our best out of the team results in the same flawed logic.
Mate, dont respond to his "click bate".


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: singcobb on October 21, 2017, 20:28:30 pm
Come on. Anyone with a working brain would think playing a team higher in the league is harder than one that is lower.
Why complicate it?


That one had me spitting beer


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 21, 2017, 20:47:41 pm
Come on. Anyone with a working brain would think playing a team higher in the league is harder than one that is lower.
Why complicate it?


Exactly, unfortunately there are loads on here without a working brain, just read this thread for proof.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on October 21, 2017, 20:50:54 pm
Exactly, unfortunately there are loads on here without a working brain, just read this thread for proof.
Or read the original poster for proof.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 21, 2017, 20:57:38 pm
Or read the original poster for proof.

Ok, I've got a spare 5 mins. Talk me through what's confusing you. My point is we have more chance of beating teams at the lower end of the league. At the time this thread started, we had mainly played top end teams. Since then, we have played more lower end teams and our results have picked up, as I said they would. So, what exactly are you struggling with? I'll try to help you.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on October 21, 2017, 21:01:05 pm
I see your still busy with your jigsaw Cobb78


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 21, 2017, 21:15:44 pm
Oh dear.

This thread could be fun if the OP wasnt so pigheaded.

If it were as easy as looking at a static league table, we'd all be millionaires off 20 match accas every week.

The fact we're not proves just how rubbish this all is....

Not to mention that we just took 4 pts off two teams higher placed than us, despite coming off the back of a 6 goal thumping against a team that couldnt win away and another home defeat against a team that couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on October 21, 2017, 21:27:42 pm
So, what exactly are you struggling with? I'll try to help you.
Fukc off with your patronising  attitude. You are a bell end and you know it.
Would anybody like to assist number 78? Anybody at all?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 21, 2017, 21:42:22 pm
Fukc off with your patronising  attitude. You are a bell end and you know it.
Would anybody like to assist number 78? Anybody at all?

If you were a bit brighter I wouldn't need to patronize you, sadly I'm struggling to find another way of explaining these simple facts to you. As I said earlier, let me know what is confusing you and I'll break it down into words of one syllable.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 23, 2017, 09:02:08 am
Here's a direct question for you C78 it only requires a single word answer tbh but I'm sure you'll embellish....

Who is the easier game at this time, Sc***horpe or Oldham?

And just so you don't have to check the table, Oldham are 20th on 15pts, Scunny are 8th on 23.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on October 23, 2017, 09:49:43 am
Here's a direct question for you C78 it only requires a single word answer tbh but I'm sure you'll embellish....

Who is the easier game at this time, Sc***horpe or Oldham?

And just so you don't have to check the table, Oldham are 20th on 15pts, Scunny are 8th on 23.

Really good comparison to be fair.

Oldham play Sc***horpe at home this Saturday. Skybet currently place Sc***horpe as the favourites.

If you fancy Oldham, you could win some money here.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 23, 2017, 10:10:36 am
Here's a direct question for you C78 it only requires a single word answer tbh but I'm sure you'll embellish....

Who is the easier game at this time, Sc***horpe or Oldham?

And just so you don't have to check the table, Oldham are 20th on 15pts, Scunny are 8th on 23.

Oldham

Why do you ask?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BedsCobb on October 23, 2017, 14:02:12 pm
Strange sequences of results might suggest the harder games could yield as many points as the "easier"
We get smashed at home to Peterborough and Bristol Rovers who both went on to lose 3 in as many games some against sides we beat.
As Jimmy G once said, Funny old game.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on October 23, 2017, 14:27:38 pm
.......................... and Bristol Rovers who both went on to lose 3 in as many games

Amazed this hasn't been picked up by the experts on here. Since that game BR have conceded 5 and scored 0. Wouldn't mind playing them again soon.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 23, 2017, 14:32:16 pm
Amazed this hasn't been picked up by the experts on here. Since that game BR have conceded 5 and scored 0. Wouldn't mind playing them again soon.

Would rather play Plymouth at Sixfields.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on October 23, 2017, 15:00:29 pm
Id rather play Wimbledon at Sixfields..... oh wait.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Joes Sweet Left Foot on October 23, 2017, 16:29:12 pm
Looking at the form table for the last 6 games, there is now only one easy game and it's Posh. Mind you Scunny, Plymouth, Gills and Blackpool all have 5pts from last 6, the same as us, and having just beaten Gills away you have to fancy us beating Blackpool at home on current form.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 23, 2017, 16:45:46 pm
Looking at the form table for the last 6 games, there is now only one easy game and it's Posh. Mind you Scunny, Plymouth, Gills and Blackpool all have 5pts from last 6, the same as us, and having just beaten Gills away you have to fancy us beating Blackpool at home on current form.

Iím hopeful of a win on Saturday.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 24, 2017, 15:42:53 pm
Oldham

Why do you ask?

Then that proves what little you know about the game.

Oldham are currently a harder game than Scunny. Look at the results both of their last 5 games. Oldham are undefeated and have gained 11pts to Scunny's 4.

Still if you genuinely believe that despite all the evidence, only the main table counts, then I don't need to call you a fool do I.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: lodgeadam on October 24, 2017, 17:45:59 pm
Iím hopeful of a win on Saturday.

How? When Blackpool are 13 places above us in the league? Surely by your own method this is a hard game.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 24, 2017, 18:03:59 pm
Then that proves what little you know about the game.

Oldham are currently a harder game than Scunny. Look at the results both of their last 5 games. Oldham are undefeated and have gained 11pts to Scunny's 4.

Still if you genuinely believe that despite all the evidence, only the main table counts, then I don't need to call you a fool do I.

Who have Oldham and Sc***horpe played in their last 5 games?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 24, 2017, 18:05:40 pm
How? When Blackpool are 13 places above us in the league? Surely by your own method this is a hard game.

Compared to what?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 24, 2017, 18:06:21 pm
I agree, it's not popular, but I am going to keep on posting it as I can't take the majority of posters seriously on here.
My prediction is, once we have played 14 games, the projected final points total will be accurate to within a 5 point range either way come the end of the season.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 24, 2017, 18:08:02 pm
After Rochdale away

Vs top half 3 from 8 (proj 9)
Vs bottom half 6 from 6 (proj 22)
Projection 31pts = Relegation
26-36 points then, which clashes with your prediction of a higher placed and better points tally than last year.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on October 24, 2017, 18:33:00 pm
Shall we all just shut up shop, sack Hasselbaink and plan for life in L2 again...now? save the pain.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: lodgeadam on October 24, 2017, 22:01:54 pm
Compared to what?

Compared to what? Compared to us they are 13 places higher in the league - so according to your own measure this should be a so called hard game? Or are you now going against everything you've said?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 25, 2017, 00:18:18 am
Compared to what? Compared to us they are 13 places higher in the league - so according to your own measure this should be a so called hard game? Or are you now going against everything you've said?

Harder than Bradford or Wigan? Madness.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 25, 2017, 13:18:17 pm
Who have Oldham and Sc***horpe played in their last 5 games?

Does it matter? But probably comparable based on your top half/bottom half logic.

Scunny are in a slump, Oldham are on the rise. I know who I'd rather play


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: lodgeadam on October 25, 2017, 14:13:51 pm
Harder than Bradford or Wigan? Madness.



Why are you talking about Bradford and Wigan, I am saying according to your method Blackpool is a hard game due to the fact they are 13 places higher than us.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 25, 2017, 19:58:21 pm
Why are you talking about Bradford and Wigan, I am saying according to your method Blackpool is a hard game due to the fact they are 13 places higher than us.

Tough games, why not talk about them?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 25, 2017, 19:59:48 pm
Does it matter? But probably comparable based on your top half/bottom half logic.

Scunny are in a slump, Oldham are on the rise. I know who I'd rather play

I think weíll get more points vs Oldham than we will against Sc***horpe. If you disagree, fancy a tenner on it?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 25, 2017, 20:00:41 pm
Tough games, why not talk about them?

How is this thread possibly still going????


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on October 25, 2017, 20:48:21 pm
How is this thread possibly still going????

Don't knock it...we need another one to compete with the Redevelopment thread. We'll soon be onto talking about a game in 1987, which will inevitably lead onto comparisons with Hitler.











Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 25, 2017, 21:17:55 pm
How is this thread possibly still going????

Because a few idiots keep posting comments which have no relevance to the point I made originally, probably because they struggle with the basic facts I pointed out..........


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on October 25, 2017, 22:33:28 pm
Then that proves what little you know about the game.

Oldham are currently a harder game than Scunny. Look at the results both of their last 5 games. Oldham are undefeated and have gained 11pts to Scunny's 4.

Still if you genuinely believe that despite all the evidence, only the main table counts, then I don't need to call you a fool do I.

The flaw with your argument is that you've picked an arbitrary number of games for form and used that. If you had chosen 2 or 12 games rather than 5 then their forms are identical.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on October 26, 2017, 06:23:00 am
Over the last 6 weeks this thread has consistently been at or near the top, and is easily the hardest to follow. What more proof does anyone need?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on October 26, 2017, 13:51:24 pm
Was West Ham an easy or hard game for Tottenham last night??  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 26, 2017, 14:15:23 pm
Was West Ham an easy or hard game for Tottenham last night??  ;D

What do you think?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on October 26, 2017, 14:26:25 pm
Was West Ham an easy or hard game for Tottenham last night??  ;D

An easy game. Just like Huddersfield vs Manchester United.

The underdog wins occasionally... just statistically lower than the favourite (easier game).


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on October 26, 2017, 15:34:24 pm
easily the hardest to follow.

You're getting the hang of it  ;)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on October 26, 2017, 16:27:12 pm
What do you think?
Iím beyond caring.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: lodgeadam on October 26, 2017, 16:34:27 pm
Tough games, why not talk about them?

Ok, you are clearly trying to be a wind up merchant Richard.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 26, 2017, 16:55:39 pm
Iím beyond caring.


Then why ask?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 26, 2017, 17:02:01 pm
Ok, you are clearly trying to be a wind up merchant Richard.

Not at all, just stating facts. Since the first month of the season we have always had a better points per game ratio against teams in the bottom half (easier games) compared to those in the top (harder games)

At the time this thread started, we had played the majority of our games from the tougher end of the spectrum (ie easier games to come). The ratio of harder Vs easier games played has now evened out, but sadly our league position has not improved (bad results at home vs Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers cost us). However, Iím an optimist, I still think weíll finish higher than last season.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on October 26, 2017, 19:40:15 pm
Not at all, just stating facts. Since the first month of the season we have always had a better points per game ratio against teams in the bottom half (easier games) compared to those in the top (harder games)

At the time this thread started, we had played the majority of our games from the tougher end of the spectrum (ie easier games to come). The ratio of harder Vs easier games played has now evened out, but sadly our league position has not improved (bad results at home vs Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers cost us). However, Iím an optimist, I still think weíll finish higher than last season.
You also said your end of season final points projection of 31, predicted after game fourteen, would be accurate to within 5 either side. 
Hmmmm. I'm fairly certain the only poster on this site who thinks we'll finish in a higher position than last season with a spread of 26-36 points is you.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on October 26, 2017, 21:06:48 pm
Then why ask?
Because I find it inconceivable that anyone could really be so naive to believe that this flawed system has any merit whatsoever.
I actually donít believe you are that thick as you come across as a decent poster,therefore Iím of the opinion itís now just a wind up.
Funny to see the threads still running and will be even more interesting to see who is the last poster to not realise this and continue to argue regards it ::)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on October 26, 2017, 22:26:43 pm
Because I find it inconceivable that anyone could really be so naive to believe that this flawed system has any merit whatsoever.
I actually donít believe you are that thick as you come across as a decent poster,therefore Iím of the opinion itís now just a wind up.
Funny to see the threads still running and will be even more interesting to see who is the last poster to not realise this and continue to argue regards it ::)

Please indulge me and in a sentence if possible, what is Cobbler78ís system?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 26, 2017, 22:48:00 pm
Please indulge me and in a sentence if possible, what is Cobbler78ís system?

There is no system, just basic common sense!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on October 26, 2017, 22:51:07 pm
There is no system, just basic common sense!

Thanks for your input but I was asking Shoemaker.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 26, 2017, 22:59:11 pm
There is no system, just basic common sense!

That's just it, in football anything can happen, there is no logic. Tomorrow bottom of the table Plymouth are likely to go and beat top of the table Shrewsbury. That's football 😉


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on October 26, 2017, 23:41:10 pm
That's just it, in football anything can happen, there is no logic. Tomorrow bottom of the table Plymouth are likely to go and beat top of the table Shrewsbury. That's football 😉

Plymouth aren't bottom of the table but if they were to play Shrewsbury tomorrow it's unlikely (around one in three) they would win. It could happen but to suggest it's likely leaves too much to no logic and other lesser factors such as injuries and recent form. I agree that in individual games chance plays a significant part, after all what other sport could you win by scoring just one point? Generally however the better footballing teams will win through.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 27, 2017, 00:11:09 am
Plymouth aren't bottom of the table but if they were to play Shrewsbury tomorrow it's unlikely (around one in three) they would win. It could happen but to suggest it's likely leaves too much to no logic and other lesser factors such as injuries and recent form. I agree that in individual games chance plays a significant part, after all what other sport could you win by scoring just one point? Generally however the better footballing teams will win through.

Cuz Huddersfield are better than man united?????

Or west ham are better than spurs?????


As you say so many variables, you cannot make an assumption on league position alone!!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 27, 2017, 00:30:16 am
That's just it, in football anything can happen, there is no logic. Tomorrow bottom of the table Plymouth are likely to go and beat top of the table Shrewsbury. That's football 😉

When you say likely........more likely than Shrewsbury winning? If not, why not.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 27, 2017, 10:45:44 am
I think weíll get more points vs Oldham than we will against Sc***horpe. If you disagree, fancy a tenner on it?

Is that based on your theory or just gut feeling?

You're deflecting from the actual question. Let's make this simple....

Which is the tougher game - one against a team in say 8th place in the table, who have taken 1pt from their last 6 games, or one against a team in say 17th who have taken 14pts from their last 6 games?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on October 27, 2017, 10:54:17 am
Cuz Huddersfield are better than man united?????

Or west ham are better than spurs?????


As you say so many variables, you cannot make an assumption on league position alone!!!

Obviously not, but for most people, including the bookies, itís by far the most important factor and as the season progresses it becomes more important. Things like form, injuries etc. tend to cancel each other out.
If you disagree dont waste time arguing on here, get to a bookie site and fill you boots, youíll notice the odds mostly follow league positions with home/away being the only other significant factor.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 27, 2017, 10:54:54 am
The flaw with your argument is that you've picked an arbitrary number of games for form and used that. If you had chosen 2 or 12 games rather than 5 then their forms are identical.


Last five or six is the most widely used format for "recent form". The clue is in the word "form". It's used across all sports. It's widely recognised as a more reliable means of predicting outcomes as it it based on recent events.

C78s formula totally ignores it and uses a static view of a table. Using his formula a team could win 10 on the trot to attain a "hard" rating but then be on a 6 match losing slump and still be a hard game when in reality, they could have no manager and be fielding a youth team due to injuries. His formula also fails to fix the points gained at a point in time, so you can win a "hard" game but then lose those points if three weeks later the team you beat drops into the bottom half and become an "easy" game.

Sorry, but if those two factors alone aren't enough to devalue his formula then I don't know what is...



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 27, 2017, 11:09:57 am
Is that based on your theory or just gut feeling?

You're deflecting from the actual question. Let's make this simple....

Which is the tougher game - one against a team in say 8th place in the table, who have taken 1pt from their last 6 games, or one against a team in say 17th who have taken 14pts from their last 6 games?

A - Based on gut feeling and common sense
B - Would depend on who those 6 games were against, but as a rule of thumb the higher placed team are generally better therefore the harder option.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 27, 2017, 11:12:58 am
Last five or six is the most widely used format for "recent form". The clue is in the word "form". It's used across all sports. It's widely recognised as a more reliable means of predicting outcomes as it it based on recent events.

C78s formula totally ignores it and uses a static view of a table. Using his formula a team could win 10 on the trot to attain a "hard" rating but then be on a 6 match losing slump and still be a hard game when in reality, they could have no manager and be fielding a youth team due to injuries. His formula also fails to fix the points gained at a point in time, so you can win a "hard" game but then lose those points if three weeks later the team you beat drops into the bottom half and become an "easy" game.

Sorry, but if those two factors alone aren't enough to devalue his formula then I don't know what is...



A basic league table baffles most on here, there is no need to over complicate this further.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 27, 2017, 11:39:11 am
TBF, the only thing baffling people is your denial and asinine obstinance in the face of anyone who dares to challenge your thinking...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 27, 2017, 12:41:12 pm
TBF, the only thing baffling people is your denial and asinine obstinance in the face of anyone who dares to challenge your thinking...

Not at all, challenge away, Iíll just point you in the direction of the facts.

We have gained 0.375 points per game (3 points in 8 games) against teams in the top half, compared to 1.286 points per game (9 points in 7 games) vs teams in the bottom half.

Statistically we gain more points against the lower placed teams (easier games) this has been the case all season and will be the case for the rest of the season. I struggle to see your argument that this is incorrect.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on October 27, 2017, 15:41:07 pm
Last five or six is the most widely used format for "recent form". The clue is in the word "form". It's used across all sports. It's widely recognised as a more reliable means of predicting outcomes as it it based on recent events.

C78s formula totally ignores it and uses a static view of a table. Using his formula a team could win 10 on the trot to attain a "hard" rating but then be on a 6 match losing slump and still be a hard game when in reality, they could have no manager and be fielding a youth team due to injuries. His formula also fails to fix the points gained at a point in time, so you can win a "hard" game but then lose those points if three weeks later the team you beat drops into the bottom half and become an "easy" game.

Sorry, but if those two factors alone aren't enough to devalue his formula then I don't know what is...


I hate to be the person to trot this one out but as Bill Shankley said "Form is temporary, class is permanent"
I'll give you that 12 games is a bit long to judge form but the last two games would be significant to some. My point is that by using arbitrary lengths of time or numbers of games you can exaggerate any apparent form.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on October 28, 2017, 12:20:28 pm
Please indulge me and in a sentence if possible, what is Cobbler78ís system?
A flawed one.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 28, 2017, 16:57:32 pm
Then that proves what little you know about the game.

Oldham are currently a harder game than Scunny. Look at the results both of their last 5 games. Oldham are undefeated and have gained 11pts to Scunny's 4.

Still if you genuinely believe that despite all the evidence, only the main table counts, then I don't need to call you a fool do I.

Anyone know the result of Oldham vs Sc***horpe today? Asking for a friend.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Benji on October 28, 2017, 17:01:22 pm
Anyone know the result of Oldham vs Sc***horpe today? Asking for a friend.
and the Shrewsbury result?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 28, 2017, 17:05:38 pm
and the Shrewsbury result?

Irrelevant as nobody made an example of that game. Unless youíre confusing Plymouth with Peterborough, which is quite possible as they both start with a big P.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 28, 2017, 17:10:14 pm
Update after Blackpool win. Still 0pts Vs top 10 teams

Vs top half 4 from 8 (proj 12)
Vs bottom half 11 from 8 (proj 30)
Projection 42pts = Relegation


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 28, 2017, 17:15:25 pm
Irrelevant as nobody made an example of that game. Unless youíre confusing Plymouth with Peterborough, which is quite possible as they both start with a big P.

Very relevant as it shows your system is **** and is totally flawed!!!

Will the mods please now lock this thread to stop the bulls*** continuing!!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 28, 2017, 17:17:43 pm
Update after Blackpool win. Still 0pts Vs top 10 teams

Vs top half 4 from 8 (proj 12)
Vs bottom half 11 from 8 (proj 30)
Projection 42pts = Relegation

Your projection has increase by 11 points off the back of one result!!! Your so comical!!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 28, 2017, 17:19:21 pm
Very relevant as it shows your system is **** and is totally flawed!!!

Will the mods please now lock this thread to stop the bulls*** continuing!!!

Just because you donít understand or are over complicating things doesnít make it flawed. If you donít like the thread, ignore it, or is that also too complicated for you? The fact you constantly bleat about closing it, says to me you can see you are being proved wrong and itís making you look a bit of a buffoon.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 28, 2017, 17:21:05 pm
Your projection has increase by 11 points off the back of one result!!! Your so comical!!!

1) Yes it has, thatís what projections do you utter berk!!
2) Itís ďyouíreĒ


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 28, 2017, 17:24:38 pm
Just because you donít understand or are over complicating things doesnít make it flawed. If you donít like the thread, ignore it, or is that also too complicated for you? The fact you constantly bleat about closing it, says to me you can see you are being proved wrong and itís making you look a bit of a buffoon.

HaHa as soon as your "theory" breaks down that result is irrelevant haha what an utter idiot you are my friend!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on October 28, 2017, 17:28:49 pm
Your projection has increase by 11 points off the back of one result!!! Your so comical!!!

Not sure if trolling or not. But this is expected at this early stage of the season... Towards the back end of the season the projection will inevitably vary much less and be very accurate to the end calculation.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 28, 2017, 17:29:06 pm
HaHa as soon as your "theory" breaks down that result is irrelevant haha what an utter idiot you are my friend!!

Some simple steps for you

1) Find a dictionary
2) Look up ďProbabilityĒ
3) Ask an adult to read the definition to you
4) Then ask the same adult to explain what they said in smaller words.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 28, 2017, 17:52:47 pm
Some simple steps for you

1) Find a dictionary
2) Look up ďProbabilityĒ
3) Ask an adult to read the definition to you
4) Then ask the same adult to explain what they said in smaller words.

Probability is dependant on variables, something your "theory" totally disregards!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 28, 2017, 17:59:37 pm
Probability is dependant on variables, something your "theory" totally disregards!

What do you see as my ďtheoryĒ? Youíre definitely over complicating things.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BedsCobb on October 28, 2017, 18:00:53 pm
Harder games are the ones against ... Well established larger towns showing professionalism in running clubs gaining extra support through civic pride.. Portsmouth wigan Bradford oxford etc.
Or the well run smaller towns who have rich benefactors Sc***horpe fleetwood.
The easier games are usually against those clubs like us who just bounce along on the bones of our arses  making up the numbers with no direction, no growth plans and generating little in the way of civic pride due to being an insignificant part of something bigger to outside controlling bodies.
Hope that clears it up any confusion as to what makes easier opponents .


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Benji on October 28, 2017, 18:14:06 pm
Harder games are the ones against ... Well established larger towns showing professionalism in running clubs gaining extra support through civic pride.. Portsmouth wigan Bradford oxford etc.
Or the well run smaller towns who have rich benefactors Sc***horpe fleetwood.
The easier games are usually against those clubs like us who just bounce along on the bones of our arses  making up the numbers with no direction, no growth plans and generating little in the way of civic pride due to being an insignificant part of something bigger to outside controlling bodies.
Hope that clears it up any confusion as to what makes easier opponents .
Sheffield United were a massively big and underachieving team in league 1, they are now top of the championship, it's got nothing to do with the running of the club and entirely down to a Sheffield United supporting manager who threw himself at the club. The board who'd made a string of appointments that had been a disaster just got lucky.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on October 28, 2017, 18:47:03 pm
Cobb78's jigsaw is starting to lose pieces...This was a harder game but we won meanwhile the Wombles was easier and we lost..

This thread needs to be flushed its clogging up the sh1tter


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 28, 2017, 18:50:18 pm
Cobb78's jigsaw is starting to lose pieces...This was a harder game but we won meanwhile the Wombles was easier and we lost..

This thread needs to be flushed its clogging up the sh1tter

Seriously? What is confusing you? All I am doing is stating facts. We have now played an equal split of teams from the league, we are where we are. Nothing more, nothing less.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 28, 2017, 19:17:29 pm
Cobb78's jigsaw is starting to lose pieces...This was a harder game but we won meanwhile the Wombles was easier and we lost..

This thread needs to be flushed its clogging up the sh1tter

+1


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 28, 2017, 19:36:10 pm
Seriously? What is confusing you? All I am doing is stating facts. We have now played an equal split of teams from the league, we are where we are. Nothing more, nothing less.

When we played Blackpool they were 9th. Therefore a harder game.
You're an absolute **** prick.

Facts.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 28, 2017, 19:46:53 pm
When we played Blackpool they were 9th. Therefore a harder game.
You're an absolute **** prick.

Facts.

Great result wasnít it, whatís your point?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 28, 2017, 19:50:38 pm
Don't close the thread. Clinical psychologists up and down the country have C78 as a case study and statisticians everywhere are using his theory as an example of how not to calculate probability...

As the previous poster said, this was a harder game as Blackpool were 9th.

You can't take their position after the game as he is choosing to do. I'm tired of explaining this to him now. All that is being proved is that he is stupid and will never back down.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: tcobb on October 28, 2017, 20:11:00 pm
Well that was an easier game for Blackpool. Hope this works out for them.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on October 28, 2017, 20:32:42 pm
Don't close the thread. Clinical psychologists up and down the country have C78 as a case study and statisticians everywhere are using his theory as an example of how not to calculate probability...

As the previous poster said, this was a harder game as Blackpool were 9th.

You can't take their position after the game as he is choosing to do. I'm tired of explaining this to him now. All that is being proved is that he is stupid and will never back down.

To be fair to your form theory, both team's last five games were very similar so that would have pointed to a tight game.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 28, 2017, 20:44:13 pm
Don't close the thread. Clinical psychologists up and down the country have C78 as a case study and statisticians everywhere are using his theory as an example of how not to calculate probability...

As the previous poster said, this was a harder game as Blackpool were 9th.

You can't take their position after the game as he is choosing to do. I'm tired of explaining this to him now. All that is being proved is that he is stupid and will never back down.

Their position Pre and post game is exactly the same, they are still top half you absolute C0ckwomble 😂😂😂


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on October 28, 2017, 21:16:32 pm
Cobb78's jigsaw is starting to lose pieces...This was a harder game but we won meanwhile the Wombles was easier and we lost..

This thread needs to be flushed its clogging up the sh1tter
The thread wont be locked, because its working as click bait. In the meantime no 78, you truly are a patronising c***.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 28, 2017, 22:06:54 pm
The thread wont be locked, because its working as click bait. In the meantime no 78, you truly are a patronising c***.

Youíre welcome 💋


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on October 28, 2017, 22:50:33 pm
It's a shame that insults destroy what could be a good conversation about factors that indicate likelihood of results.
I must confess to preferring overall results over recent form and also prefer 'big' clubs over those that I consider are punching above their weight. So you can imagine clubs like Villa and Burton are killers for me.
There are some interesting form theories around. For example there's one that basically ignores single goal wins considering them to be as much luck as being a superior team. There's another that looks at goal timings, for example our 1-0 win today would be regarded as stronger with the goal being scored at 21 minutes and holding on rather than nicking a win in the last few minutes.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 30, 2017, 14:41:05 pm
Their position Pre and post game is exactly the same, they are still top half you absolute C0ckwomble 😂😂😂

So if Blackpool were 9th pre-game (taking someones elses word on that) If that is correct, how have we still not gained any points against top 10 teams? We just beat a top 10 side!

Ah, of course, you do your update based on the table after the game....

Can you still not see how wrong that is? Have a think before you start calling people names...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 30, 2017, 14:55:18 pm
So if Blackpool were 9th pre-game (taking someones elses word on that) If that is correct, how have we still not gained any points against top 10 teams? We just beat a top 10 side!

Ah, of course, you do your update based on the table after the game....

Can you still not see how wrong that is? Have a think before you start calling people names...

Try this.

Look at the current league table, how many point have we gained against teams currently in the top 10? Iíll help you out a bit, a nice round number will suffice an an answer.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 30, 2017, 14:57:49 pm
Here's a direct question for you C78 it only requires a single word answer tbh but I'm sure you'll embellish....

Who is the easier game at this time, Sc***horpe or Oldham?

And just so you don't have to check the table, Oldham are 20th on 15pts, Scunny are 8th on 23.

Rambo, remember this? Talk me through the result on Saturday please.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest2235 on October 30, 2017, 15:46:31 pm
Rambo, remember this? Talk me through the result on Saturday please.
All depends what sides are on show, its F.A Cup weekend!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 30, 2017, 16:30:56 pm
All depends what sides are on show, its F.A Cup weekend!

This game happened on Saturday. Awaiting Rambos explanation!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest2235 on October 30, 2017, 16:46:57 pm
Sorry thought you were talking about this Saturday


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: GrangeParkCobbler on October 30, 2017, 17:43:11 pm
So if Blackpool were 9th pre-game (taking someones elses word on that) If that is correct, how have we still not gained any points against top 10 teams? We just beat a top 10 side!

Ah, of course, you do your update based on the table after the game....

Can you still not see how wrong that is? Have a think before you start calling people names...

Actually, god knows when and how he does his updates!! Portsmouth went on a good run after we beat them, in fact they were 8th after beating MK Dons a couple of weeks ago...since then theyíve lost three in a row and are down to 14th...

To actually market your stats as fact youíd need to update after every single game played!!

If you had asked the question a couple of weeks ago we would have gained some points against a top 10 side, now we havenít!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 30, 2017, 19:50:54 pm
Actually, god knows when and how he does his updates!! Portsmouth went on a good run after we beat them, in fact they were 8th after beating MK Dons a couple of weeks ago...since then theyíve lost three in a row and are down to 14th...

To actually market your stats as fact youíd need to update after every single game played!!

If you had asked the question a couple of weeks ago we would have gained some points against a top 10 side, now we havenít!!

Jesus Christ 😂😂😂 these people can vote, drive cars and breed 🙈🙈


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on October 30, 2017, 20:34:56 pm
Maybe that is why we are struggling to score goals...because the goal posts keep moving?  :P
Top half, top ten, next it'll be the top 6. It's a very funny thread though and Opta must be ripping up their models.  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on October 30, 2017, 21:05:54 pm
This thread demonstrates why you very rarely see a poor bookie...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 30, 2017, 21:28:48 pm
My dear Cobbler78 - Stop trying to deflect from your abject failure by referring to me suggesting that on current form, Oldham are a harder game than Sc***horpe just because the latter beat the former on Saturday....

Why? Because based on your very own formula, if the season were 5 games old and those 5 games were the 5 I referred to, then Oldham would be sitting high on 11pts and Scunny low on 4. So your very own "formula" would have Oldham as the hard game and Scunny as the easy.

Now on this occasion, Scunny upset the formbook which anyone knows can happen but anyway that isn't the point that you keep repeatedly dodging which is, that you can't ignore the fact that you have to judge whether a team is top half or not when you play them, not after.

We beat a top half team, which resulted in them dropping places


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on October 30, 2017, 21:33:00 pm
It's a shame that insults destroy what could be a good conversation about factors that indicate likelihood of results.


Agree with this comment - '78 takes a lot of abuse, some of it shameful. Personally I think his views are shaky ; one minute we are play off hopefuls and in the next relegation candidates! Would have thought that it might be safer to predict our future about Christmas time. Its a pity some on here go out of their way to offer virulent and profane abuse.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 30, 2017, 21:41:03 pm
I've not abused him, okay called him an idiot for persisting and ignoring the obvious maybe
But haven't name called. He's dished out as much as he's took and actually, his arrogant, patronising and ignorant manner is just as insulting as someone calling him a p-richard. He's effectively calling everyone who disagrees just that....


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 30, 2017, 21:47:16 pm
I've not abused him, okay called him an idiot for persisting and ignoring the obvious maybe
But haven't name called. He's dished out as much as he's took and actually, his arrogant, patronising and ignorant manner is just as insulting as someone calling him a p-richard. He's effectively calling everyone who disagrees just that....

+1


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 30, 2017, 21:49:44 pm
Agree with this comment - '78 takes a lot of abuse, some of it shameful. Personally I think his views are shaky ; one minute we are play off hopefuls and in the next relegation candidates! Would have thought that it might be safer to predict our future about Christmas time. Its a pity some on here go out of their way to offer virulent and profane abuse.

Shaky!!!! It's bordering on maronic!

I too have only called the ideas idiotic and have been called far worse!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 30, 2017, 22:17:06 pm
Update after Blackpool win. Still 0pts Vs top 10 teams

Vs top half 4 from 8 (proj 12)
Vs bottom half 11 from 8 (proj 30)


A little reminder regarding my ĒMARONICĒ facts. Honestly, if you think I worry about the abuse I receive from these buffoons please think again.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 30, 2017, 22:31:02 pm
Agree with this comment - '78 takes a lot of abuse, some of it shameful. Personally I think his views are shaky ; one minute we are play off hopefuls and in the next relegation candidates! Would have thought that it might be safer to predict our future about Christmas time. Its a pity some on here go out of their way to offer virulent and profane abuse.

Iíve never said we are playoff hopefuls or relegation candidates. I said at the start of the season 12th and 60pts, that is looking tricky (but not impossible) Id be happy with an improvement in points and position compared to last year.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 30, 2017, 22:37:30 pm
My dear Cobbler78 - Stop trying to deflect from your abject failure by referring to me suggesting that on current form, Oldham are a harder game than Sc***horpe just because the latter beat the former on Saturday....

Why? Because based on your very own formula, if the season were 5 games old and those 5 games were the 5 I referred to, then Oldham would be sitting high on 11pts and Scunny low on 4. So your very own "formula" would have Oldham as the hard game and Scunny as the easy.


Mate, are you not a little bit embarrassed that you actually posted this? Read it back to yourself again, youíre a joke.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on October 30, 2017, 22:46:57 pm
I've not abused him, okay called him an idiot for persisting and ignoring the obvious maybe
But haven't name called. He's dished out as much as he's took and actually, his arrogant, patronising and ignorant manner is just as insulting as someone calling him a p-richard. He's effectively calling everyone who disagrees just that....

This. Calling him a throw away word like t*** is no way near as bad. You're really not helping yourself C78.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 30, 2017, 22:52:51 pm
This. Calling him a throw away word like t*** is no way near as bad. You're really not helping yourself C78.

I donít need to help myself. The facts speak for themselves.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on October 30, 2017, 23:01:11 pm
Would you rather be liked in the real world or be right in the real world?

Times like this I resort to a famous poem.

'If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
 But make allowance for their doubting too.'


I think you need to read the 'second line' in life.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 30, 2017, 23:16:50 pm
Would you rather be liked in the real world or be right in the real world?

Times like this I resort to a famous poem.

'If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
 But make allowance for their doubting too.'


I think you need to read the 'second line' in life.

Nice, I like it.

I treat people how they treat me. Everbrite for example doesnít agree with my points, but he is always thoughtful, polite and reasoned with his argument. Others are rude, aggressive, and above all thick. I have no time for people like that. Read page 1 of this thread which proves my point.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 31, 2017, 12:03:01 pm
Mate, are you not a little bit embarrassed that you actually posted this? Read it back to yourself again, youíre a joke.

I have no embarrassment at all. I'm an analyst and in part a statistician. I deal in probability, trend analysis and the like. I understand the importance of variables and how they need to be applied to obtain reliable consistent results. you clearly do not.

You have ducked, dived and dodged the clearest of FACTS presented to you, (like how it is IMPOSSIBLE for a positive average to disappear to absolute zero - even if you have an infinite number of following null results). you base your results and projects on the position after the event when the whole premise of your theory is to predict the outcome of forthcoming events, ie. you CANNOT obtain reliable results by using the position of a team after an event.

When anyone presents these clear facts to you, you call them thick and lacking in understanding which actually suggest the opposite - it's you who is lacking in understanding.

Then, to top it all off, you start the name calling which to me suggests you've lost not only the plot but the argument as well.

Clearly, the overwhelming number of replies to this thread that debunk your theory have sent you over the edge. Anyway, I'll leave it at that. I'm not going to get myself drawn in any further and tarred with the same brush....



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 31, 2017, 12:29:56 pm
Others are rude, aggressive, and above all thick. I have no time for people like that. Read page 1 of this thread which proves my point.

it seems you have a lot of time for them, otherwise you wouldnt keep replying.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 31, 2017, 13:22:22 pm
I have no embarrassment at all. I'm an analyst and in part a statistician. I deal in probability, trend analysis and the like. I understand the importance of variables and how they need to be applied to obtain reliable consistent results. you clearly do not.

You have ducked, dived and dodged the clearest of FACTS presented to you, (like how it is IMPOSSIBLE for a positive average to disappear to absolute zero - even if you have an infinite number of following null results). you base your results and projects on the position after the event when the whole premise of your theory is to predict the outcome of forthcoming events, ie. you CANNOT obtain reliable results by using the position of a team after an event.

When anyone presents these clear facts to you, you call them thick and lacking in understanding which actually suggest the opposite - it's you who is lacking in understanding.

Then, to top it all off, you start the name calling which to me suggests you've lost not only the plot but the argument as well.

Clearly, the overwhelming number of replies to this thread that debunk your theory have sent you over the edge. Anyway, I'll leave it at that. I'm not going to get myself drawn in any further and tarred with the same brush....



Despite all of this and all of your qualifications and certificates you still fail to see that we get more points per game vs teams in the bottom half (easier games) compared to teams in the top half (harder games) What do you put this down to? Coincidence?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on October 31, 2017, 14:17:13 pm
Cobbler78. You are wrong. Deal with your problems away from THE plz. kthanksbye.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Boot and shoe on October 31, 2017, 14:58:04 pm
The dullest thread with the most mind numbing contributions in the history of the World Wide Web.
Eats at your soul


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 31, 2017, 15:04:04 pm
The dullest thread with the most mind numbing contributions in the history of the World Wide Web.
Eats at your soul

And yet you still canít resist reading and commenting, strange.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on October 31, 2017, 15:45:27 pm
Cobbler78. You are wrong. Deal with your problems away from THE plz. kthanksbye.

He won't 606 because he loves it. As I said, I'm not going to engage directly any more. I see though he's responded with more of the same, old same old, trying to belittle my "qualifications" and forgetting that on several occasions I've agreed with him that you are indeed more likely to pick up points against lower placed teams, why would I disagree with what is obvious?

In fact, there's no one I've seen whose comments disagree with this very obvious and oft proven statement. My issue has always been around how he then uses that to project potential points, even though you cannot possibly know where a team will be placed in 1, 2 or 3 months time. Shrewsbury could feasibly be lower placed by the time we play them again and certainly those teams "just in" the top half are as like to have slipped into the bottom half by the time we play them again. Similarly, the whole issue stating (for example) Blackpool are bottom half when they were actually top half at the point we played them.

None of it makes any sense. If C78 had simply stuck to the statement "we'll get more points against teams in the bottom than those in the top" no one would bat an eyelid.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 31, 2017, 19:22:16 pm
He won't 606 because he loves it. As I said, I'm not going to engage directly any more. I see though he's responded with more of the same, old same old, trying to belittle my "qualifications" and forgetting that on several occasions I've agreed with him that you are indeed more likely to pick up points against lower placed teams, why would I disagree with what is obvious?

In fact, there's no one I've seen whose comments disagree with this very obvious and oft proven statement. My issue has always been around how he then uses that to project potential points, even though you cannot possibly know where a team will be placed in 1, 2 or 3 months time. Shrewsbury could feasibly be lower placed by the time we play them again and certainly those teams "just in" the top half are as like to have slipped into the bottom half by the time we play them again. Similarly, the whole issue stating (for example) Blackpool are bottom half when they were actually top half at the point we played them.

None of it makes any sense. If C78 had simply stuck to the statement "we'll get more points against teams in the bottom than those in the top" no one would bat an eyelid.

Not belittling your qualifications at all, Iím sure they come in very useful in day to day life and look very impressive on your CV.

All Iíve ever said, we have more chance of beating lower placed teams, nothing more, nothing less, now this has proven to be true Iím glad you agree with me. The projection is exactly that, a projection. For some reason people struggle with the basics of the first point and feel like they have to complicate things, no ideal why, youíre best off asking them.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on October 31, 2017, 19:36:13 pm
No idea, not ideal. You maronic fool.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on October 31, 2017, 19:49:41 pm
Dave Gorman starts tonight. I'm sure he could pen a 'found poem' off the back of this thread.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on October 31, 2017, 23:18:12 pm
No idea, not ideal. You maronic fool.

Time to go back to school 78!!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on October 31, 2017, 23:28:48 pm
Time to go back to school 78!!!

You of all people shouldnít compare a typo to stupidity........that would be MARONIC!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on November 01, 2017, 08:37:25 am
You of all people shouldnít compare a typo to stupidity........that would be MARONIC!

what a maron


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on November 01, 2017, 12:03:46 pm
what a maron


See what you mean Alton!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on November 01, 2017, 21:57:58 pm
You of all people shouldnít compare a typo to stupidity........that would be MARONIC!
I love you 78 (although not in the online grooming sense obviously) and this thread. Weíve had some terrific banter, educational and informative lessons in statistical analysis and even some poetry. I could read this thread all day, and frequently do, brilliant!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on November 01, 2017, 23:36:11 pm
I love you 78 (although not in the online grooming sense obviously) and this thread. Weíve had some terrific banter, educational and informative lessons in statistical analysis and even some poetry. I could read this thread all day, and frequently do, brilliant!

 ;D
You are a nutter 8)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on November 01, 2017, 23:43:18 pm
;D
You are a nutter 8)
Agreed.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 11, 2017, 17:28:25 pm
Can someone update the stats please, Iím off out tonight so I wonít have a chance until the morning. Many apologies, I know a number of you were hoping for the update stats and projection.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on November 11, 2017, 17:46:41 pm
Can someone update the stats please, Iím off out tonight so I wonít have a chance until the morning. Many apologies, I know a number of you were hoping for the update stats and projection.

I'll give it a go. Is this the correct method?

(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-idwflWVAvKs/V3dU9wJQmAI/AAAAAAAAB5c/WSPj66Jm0bs4VnH7BjYx7VKoeZfCzfnAwCLcB/s1600/equation.gif)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BedsCobb on November 11, 2017, 17:56:50 pm
I'll give it a go. Is this the correct method?

(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-idwflWVAvKs/V3dU9wJQmAI/AAAAAAAAB5c/WSPj66Jm0bs4VnH7BjYx7VKoeZfCzfnAwCLcB/s1600/equation.gif)
All those teams that recently  smashed us, posh bristol and bradford etc have subsequently been smashed by teams we've smashed.
So to settle the argument as to which teams are the more easier games, they are the ones most likely to smash us.
Hope that helps.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblerwatch on November 11, 2017, 18:11:23 pm
All those teams that recently  smashed us, posh bristol and bradford etc have subsequently been smashed by teams we've smashed.
So to settle the argument as to which teams are the more easier games, they are the ones most likely to smash us.
Hope that helps.

ie anyone can beat or lose to anyone and there is no such thing as easy games - we simply need to average a little more than a point a game and we stay up.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on November 11, 2017, 19:47:37 pm
Can someone update the stats please, Iím off out tonight so I wonít have a chance until the morning. Many apologies, I know a number of you were hoping for the update stats and projection.
You just had to bump it, didnt you?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on November 11, 2017, 19:52:32 pm
We must be one of the harder games for anyone at the minute, yet we're at a lowly 19th. Go figure?!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: tcobb on November 11, 2017, 20:08:30 pm
Oxford game doesnt count as it is a harder game so surely we lost ?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 12, 2017, 10:53:01 am
So, here we go fact fans:

Vs Top half 10 games, 7 points, 0.7 points per game, projection 16.80pts
Vs Bottom half 7 games, 11 points, 1.57 points per game, projection 34.57pts
Season Projection 51.37pts
Still 0 points vs any teams currently in the top 9





Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on November 12, 2017, 14:10:06 pm
I bet you hate it when we beat top half sides....


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 12, 2017, 17:12:16 pm
I bet you hate it when we beat top half sides....

What a ridiculous thing to think. Why would I hate it?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Benji on November 12, 2017, 20:33:27 pm
So, here we go fact fans:

Vs Top half 10 games, 7 points, 0.7 points per game, projection 16.80pts
Vs Bottom half 7 games, 11 points, 1.57 points per game, projection 34.57pts
Season Projection 51.37pts
Still 0 points vs any teams currently in the top 9


What's the point? at any arbitrary moment playing teams in the top half of the table is harder than teams in the bottom half? as a rough guide, maybe, but far too simplistic and doesn't include other factors such as form and the way teams climb and drop down the league.
it's easy to disprove as say we were playing the team in 12th on Saturday, but on Friday the team in 13th can climb the table when playing the top team. This means the difficulty of our fixture is determined by the result of two other random teams which clearly it can't be.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 12, 2017, 21:14:07 pm
What's the point? at any arbitrary moment playing teams in the top half of the table is harder than teams in the bottom half? as a rough guide, maybe, but far too simplistic and doesn't include other factors such as form and the way teams climb and drop down the league.
it's easy to disprove as say we were playing the team in 12th on Saturday, but on Friday the team in 13th can climb the table when playing the top team. This means the difficulty of our fixture is determined by the result of two other random teams which clearly it can't be.


Why are you over complicating the facts?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 18, 2017, 17:46:43 pm
Vs Top half 11 games, 9 points, 0.818points per game, projection 19.64
Vs Bottom half 7 games, 9 points, 1.286points per game, projection 28.29
Season Projection 47.92

Next 4 games are easier than most, anything less than 6 points will be a worry, hopefully we get 8 or more.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: tcobb on November 21, 2017, 22:09:49 pm
Thank God for the easier games.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Boot and shoe on November 21, 2017, 22:21:30 pm
The teams around us are winning and Oxford and Blackpool looked awful .....
Itís about how we play not who we play


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 21, 2017, 23:15:53 pm
Thank God for the easier games.

Where were you after Sc***horpe?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 21, 2017, 23:22:56 pm
After Plymouth......Bury is HUGE!!!

Vs Top half 11 games, 9 points, 0.818points per game, projection 19.64
Vs Bottom half 8 games, 9 points, 1.125 per game, projection 24.75
Season Projection 44.38

Iím almost concerned........almost!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on November 22, 2017, 00:14:36 am
Right tonight's result proves what an utter load of bulls*** this thread is.

Time to close it down and move on

 :P


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: CallMeJoe on November 22, 2017, 03:15:09 am
True...but it gives some something to do. Tonight (last night actually) also proves what a shambolic load of toss can be palmed off as "football" and "entertainment", dunno why I,m surprised really, been going long enough to know better.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 22, 2017, 09:04:15 am
Right tonight's result proves what an utter load of bulls*** this thread is.

Time to close it down and move on

 :P

One result proves it does it? How about looking at all of the games, you know, a larger sample?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on November 22, 2017, 10:50:29 am
okay, we will do that in May when the season is done.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 22, 2017, 12:18:46 pm
okay, we will do that in May when the season is done.

Fine by me, the outcome wonít change though.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Joes Sweet Left Foot on November 23, 2017, 20:46:00 pm
I'm confused, is Bury supposed to be an easy game or not? They're bottom of the table but just beat top of the table Shrewsbury in their last game.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Saint Cobbler on November 23, 2017, 22:23:03 pm
Well, it would be an easy game if we had played them last week but as it's this week it might not be. However, as Shrewsbury have only had easy games this season (all other teams are below them), that is why they are top of the league. If they had not won so many games then they would be lower down the league, other teams would be above them and then all their games would have been harder. Bury's game against Shrewsbury would have been easier and then Bury would have won. Oh, wait a minute, I might need to re-think this.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on November 24, 2017, 09:50:05 am
I'm confused, is Bury supposed to be an easy game or not? They're bottom of the table but just beat top of the table Shrewsbury in their last game.

Easier, because they're bottom half.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 24, 2017, 17:55:11 pm
I'm confused, is Bury supposed to be an easy game or not? They're bottom of the table but just beat top of the table Shrewsbury in their last game.

Games wonít come any easier than this. 2-0 win.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on November 24, 2017, 18:27:38 pm
Games wonít come any easier than this. 2-0 win.

Say the Cobblers or Bury fans tomorrow at 5pm. If we donít get a result tomorrow itís time to hit the panic button. They are all hard games when you are in our current position.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 24, 2017, 19:29:44 pm
Say the Cobblers or Bury fans tomorrow at 5pm. If we donít get a result tomorrow itís time to hit the panic button. They are all hard games when you are in our current position.

Some are harder than others though, arenít they?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Madrid Cobbler on November 24, 2017, 19:40:27 pm
YYYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWNNNNNNN! Can somebody stop this thread?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Coolcat on November 24, 2017, 19:54:15 pm
Say the Cobblers or Bury fans tomorrow at 5pm. If we donít get a result tomorrow itís time to hit the panic button. They are all hard games when you are in our current position.
Speaking of panic buttons...I think JFH will walk out before Christmas!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Coolcat on November 24, 2017, 19:56:19 pm
YYYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWNNNNNNN! Can somebody stop this thread?
I hope you watch Rayo Vallecano in your spare time!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 24, 2017, 20:11:19 pm
YYYYYYYYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWNNNNNNN! Can somebody stop this thread?

Tip for you, if you donít want to read it, donít click on it. Itís pretty simple really, much like yourself.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on November 24, 2017, 20:27:33 pm
Some are harder than others though, arenít they?

 ;D

They certainly are but not always the ones you think. There are a few teams further up the table I'd rather be playing tomorrow but fingers crossed someone brings their scoring boots. An early low scoring relegation dogfight.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on November 24, 2017, 22:34:56 pm
Tip for you, if you donít want to read it, donít click on it. Itís pretty simple really, much like yourself.
Back to the insults again?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on November 25, 2017, 00:32:28 am
He doesn't do insults apparently. Can't be him. Must have been hacked.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 25, 2017, 08:09:12 am
Back to the insults again?

Is it an insult if itís true? In any case, I doubt most people on here would understand it. I only deal in facts.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Madrid Cobbler on November 25, 2017, 10:07:12 am
Cobbler 78. Are you Marvo in disguise? You have managed to rise to the bait every time someone disagress with your SIMPLE idea that games against bottom half are easier than those against top half, repeating the same argument over and over again for 26 pages....with plenty of arrogance and condescending comments thrown in. Hope you're not too simple to understand those words. And don't worry. I won't be posting again on this thread.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on November 25, 2017, 10:18:00 am
Is it an insult if itís true? In any case, I doubt most people on here would understand it. I only deal in facts.
Arrogant tosser.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 25, 2017, 11:37:08 am
Cobbler 78. Are you Marvo in disguise? You have managed to rise to the bait every time someone disagress with your SIMPLE idea that games against bottom half are easier than those against top half, repeating the same argument over and over again for 26 pages....with plenty of arrogance and condescending comments thrown in. Hope you're not too simple to understand those words. And don't worry. I won't be posting again on this thread.

Thanks. Youíre very welcome X


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 25, 2017, 23:57:41 pm
Vs Top Half 9pts in 11 games, 0.818PPG projection19.64
Vs Bottom Half 10pts in 9 games, 1.111PPG, projection 24.44
Season projection 44.08Pts


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on November 26, 2017, 19:37:49 pm
Vs Top Half 9pts in 11 games, 0.818PPG projection19.64
Vs Bottom Half 10pts in 9 games, 1.111PPG, projection 24.44
Season projection 44.08Pts

I really enjoyed this threads early optimism... particularly with our very tough opening fixtures. But this just looks drab now. Any chance you can promise me we have some 'even easier games to come'?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 27, 2017, 22:24:29 pm

The below is an educated opinion:
Between now and the end of 2017 we have 14 league games, I expect us to pick up over 20 points from these games, as many of them are very winnable, particularly at home. Come the turn of the year we should be on around 30 points from 25 games and on our way to beating last season final position.

Iím still waiting for the ďI told you soĒ at the turn of the year.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BackOfTheNet on November 28, 2017, 05:52:59 am
Iím still waiting for the ďI told you soĒ at the turn of the year.

Am I misreading this or are you suggesting that we'll average 2.2 points per game over the next 5 matches when we've averaged 0.95 points per game over the last 20?

If so I admire your optimism and hope that you're right, but I think you're going to be disappointed!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on November 28, 2017, 11:17:06 am
Am I misreading this or are you suggesting that we'll average 2.2 points per game over the next 5 matches when we've averaged 0.95 points per game over the last 20?

If so I admire your optimism and hope that you're right, but I think you're going to be disappointed!

Thatís the dream!! Weíve only lost 2 of our last 7 and picked up 11 points during this time. I think weíd all take 1.57 points per game between now and the end of the season.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on November 28, 2017, 18:34:55 pm
You at it again Nostradamus?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Saint Cobbler on November 29, 2017, 12:15:16 pm
Thatís the dream!! Weíve only lost 2 of our last 7 and picked up 11 points during this time. I think weíd all take 1.57 points per game between now and the end of the season.
Can't disagree with this.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on December 09, 2017, 17:10:07 pm
 ::)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: GrangeParkCobbler on December 09, 2017, 21:53:09 pm
6 of the next 7 games against "top half" teams


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on December 09, 2017, 22:06:06 pm
6 of the next 7 games against "top half" teams

They may prove "easier" than today.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: singcobb on December 09, 2017, 22:44:26 pm
You at it again Nostradamus?

Surely you mean Monstrousdumbárse


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 10, 2017, 12:54:59 pm
Vs Top Half 7 points in 10 games, 0.7ppg, projection 17pts
Vs Bottom Half 12 points in 11 games, 1.09ppg, projection 24pts
Total projection 41pts

Conclusion, we are a team of flat track bullies, we generally beat the poor sides at home and donít put up a fight against the better teams and even when going behind against poorer teams. I still think there are 4 worse team than us, but changes to the playing staff are desperately needed.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on December 10, 2017, 13:04:14 pm
Generally beat the poor sides at home? ...apart from Bristol Rovers and Wimbledon? We've beat Portsmouth (in top half now), blackpool and doncaster (who were in top half when we played them) You talk absolute s***e.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: dolph on December 10, 2017, 13:05:21 pm
I still think there are 4 worse team than us, but changes to the playing staff are desperately needed.

So as we stand at the moment there`s not 4 worse teams than us ?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 10, 2017, 13:13:45 pm
So as we stand at the moment there`s not 4 worse teams than us ?

I reckon there are at least 4 teams currently worse than us.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 10, 2017, 13:15:38 pm
Generally beat the poor sides at home? ...apart from Bristol Rovers and Wimbledon? We've beat Portsmouth (in top half now), blackpool and doncaster (who were in top half when we played them) You talk absolute s***e.

Would you consider Portsmouth, Blackpool and Doncaster to be 3 of league 1s big hitters?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on December 10, 2017, 13:26:39 pm
What's that got to do with it?

...Shrewsbury aren't a 'big hitter', but they are a good side.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BrixworthCobbler on December 10, 2017, 23:09:05 pm
I reckon there are at least 4 teams currently worse than us.

Good grief are you sure


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on December 10, 2017, 23:28:29 pm
I reckon there are at least 4 teams currently worse than us.

Name them .........


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 10, 2017, 23:47:31 pm
Name them .........

No!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on December 11, 2017, 08:30:38 am
Update after Rotherham

The below are facts, not opinions:
Vs Top Half, 2 points in 9 games (Ave 0.22 points per game) Projection 4.89points
Vs Bottom Half, 6 points in 2 games (Ave 3 points per game)  Projection 72 points
Projection 77 points (PlayOffs)

The below is an educated opinion:
Between now and the end of 2017 we have 14 league games, I expect us to pick up over 20 points from these games, as many of them are very winnable, particularly at home. Come the turn of the year we should be on around 30 points from 25 games and on our way to beating last season final position.

Throw back to when we were in 22nd place and the projection was still playoffs   ;D

As for your educated opinion, we're still waiting to even hit the 20 point mark! Time to shut this thread down as it truely is a load of b0llocks.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on December 11, 2017, 10:02:30 am
No!

idiot


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on December 11, 2017, 10:11:30 am
You do know that if we end up on 40 points and get 19 against top half teams and 21 against bottom half teams, someone will pop up to claim a statistical victory. ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on December 11, 2017, 10:18:48 am
40 points................we can dream


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on December 11, 2017, 11:29:04 am
The below are facts, not opinions:
Vs Top Half, 2 points in 9 games (Ave 0.22 points per game) Projection 4.89points
Vs Bottom Half, 6 points in 2 games (Ave 3 points per game)  Projection 72 points
Projection 77 points (PlayOffs)

Just look a that for a second. The idea that we would beat all teams in the bottom half over a season based on 2 games.
and not even get one win against the top half, and somehow make the play-offs.
I wonder what the odds on beating a team in the play-off legs would be? ha.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on December 11, 2017, 16:18:12 pm
No!
Finally he's just admitted he's full of it..Happy Days


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Boot and shoe on December 11, 2017, 16:21:26 pm
We are the easiest touch in the league currently - fact


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 11, 2017, 20:08:47 pm
The below are facts, not opinions:
Vs Top Half, 2 points in 9 games (Ave 0.22 points per game) Projection 4.89points
Vs Bottom Half, 6 points in 2 games (Ave 3 points per game)  Projection 72 points
Projection 77 points (PlayOffs)

Just look a that for a second. The idea that we would beat all teams in the bottom half over a season based on 2 games.
and not even get one win against the top half, and somehow make the play-offs.
I wonder what the odds on beating a team in the play-off legs would be? ha.

Have you tried looking up the word projection in a dictionary?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 11, 2017, 20:09:37 pm
You do know that if we end up on 40 points and get 19 against top half teams and 21 against bottom half teams, someone will pop up to claim a statistical victory. ;D

And theyíd be correct.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 11, 2017, 20:11:34 pm
Finally he's just admitted he's full of it..Happy Days

Really? I must have missed that.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on December 11, 2017, 20:39:40 pm
Have you tried looking up the word projection in a dictionary?

Have you?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on December 11, 2017, 20:48:42 pm
Have you?

Unlikely I would say 😂😂😂😂


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 11, 2017, 20:55:08 pm
Have you?

Iíll take that as a no then.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on December 11, 2017, 21:03:26 pm
I'm not the one taking the projection as gospel.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 11, 2017, 22:24:02 pm
I'm not the one taking the projection as gospel.

Thick as two short planks!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on December 11, 2017, 22:40:35 pm
Thick as two short planks!

You most certainly are!



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on December 12, 2017, 11:01:10 am
Stay away for ages, come back on here and its still the same wind up merchant spouting some **** about easier games.

Our two heaviest defeats have been against bottom half teams.

Wind your bloody neck in 78, we are a complete shambles on the pitch and CURRENTLY don't look capable of beating anyone in League One. No amount of your spin and interpretation of stats can mask this.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 12, 2017, 15:41:26 pm
Stay away for ages, come back on here and its still the same wind up merchant spouting some **** about easier games.

Our two heaviest defeats have been against bottom half teams.

Wind your bloody neck in 78, we are a complete shambles on the pitch and CURRENTLY don't look capable of beating anyone in League One. No amount of your spin and interpretation of stats can mask this.

Last day of the season, we need a win to stay up. Would you rather we had Wigan away or Wimbledon at home? And why?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on December 12, 2017, 15:47:51 pm
We've got Oldham at home last game of the season?

...want to rethink your question?  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 12, 2017, 16:24:53 pm
We've got Oldham at home last game of the season?

...want to rethink your question?  ;D

I genuinely think youíre being serious as well.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on December 12, 2017, 17:32:27 pm
Oh I'm being serious, but not the reason you think I am.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on December 16, 2017, 17:46:10 pm
Another win against a top half team still in the top half, after not winning against 3 teams in the bottom half, still in the bottom half.

Football.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 18, 2017, 20:02:03 pm
So, we have now played 22 of the 23 teams, only team weíve not played are Blackburn and we play them Saturday, so aside from after 46 games we couldnít ask for a more equal spread. Still no points against any teams inside automatic promotion or play off places.

Vs Top half 10pts in 11 games 0.91 PPG (Projection 21.82pts)
Vs Bottom half 12pts in 11 games 1.09 PPG (Projection 23.98pts)
Total projection 45pts


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on December 18, 2017, 20:54:15 pm
So, we have now played 22 of the 23 teams, only team weíve not played are Blackburn and we play them Saturday, so aside from after 46 games we couldnít ask for a more equal spread. Still no points against any teams inside automatic promotion or play off places.

Vs Top half 10pts in 11 games 0.91 PPG (Projection 21.82pts)
Vs Bottom half 12pts in 11 games 1.09 PPG (Projection 23.98pts)
Total projection 45pts
The master soothsayers brilliance continues to shine like a beacon of success in this season of mediocrity.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on December 18, 2017, 21:04:48 pm
So, we have now played 22 of the 23 teams, only team weíve not played are Blackburn and we play them Saturday, so aside from after 46 games we couldnít ask for a more equal spread. Still no points against any teams inside automatic promotion or play off places.

Vs Top half 10pts in 11 games 0.91 PPG (Projection 21.82pts)
Vs Bottom half 12pts in 11 games 1.09 PPG (Projection 23.98pts)
Total projection 45pts


Finally an admittance of spouting utter bollox!!

Well done that man, It takes some balls to admit you got it wrong 😉😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 18, 2017, 21:09:14 pm

Finally an admittance of spouting utter bollox!!

Well done that man, It takes some balls to admit you got it wrong 😉😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

The longer the season goes on, the more Iím proved right. 22 points in the last 18 games, that over the course of the season would put us comfortably in mid table. Lucky we had these easier games just around the corner, just like I told you.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on December 18, 2017, 21:27:31 pm
The longer the season goes on, the more Iím proved right. 22 points in the last 18 games, that over the course of the season would put us comfortably in mid table. Lucky we had these easier games just around the corner, just like I told you.

Well 10pts vs Top half vs 12pts vs bottom half seems to me and as you say yourself a pretty even split 😉😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 18, 2017, 21:37:42 pm
Well 10pts vs Top half vs 12pts vs bottom half seems to me and as you say yourself a pretty even split 😉😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

I think youíre missing the point of the thread mate, try again. Iíll give you a clue, read the title of the thread and the opening post again.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: DrillingCobbler on December 19, 2017, 07:29:17 am
What we need on Saturday is for Southend to drop points and be overtaken by one of the teams just below them, all of which have beaten us.
Plus of course we need to beat Blackburn.

That should ensure a few extra pages on this thread!  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on December 19, 2017, 07:37:23 am
If people want to know what itís like to be a football fan just direct them to this thread. Itís like doing a five hour round trip to watch your team get a 5 goal thumping at Oldham, moaning about how crap they are, and then doing it all again in the next week or so. Or spending 2 hours in the pub arguing about the merits of the colour of the latest away strip. Alternatively how about spending the best part of 6 months and 28 pages on this site arguing about whether itís easier to play teams in the top or bottom half of the table, itís absolutely insane. Welcome to the world of the average football supporter and god bless you all, canít get enough of it me!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on December 19, 2017, 11:00:37 am
I'd still like to see the numbers based on points gained using the position of the opposition at the time we played them, rather than when they are now as that is infinitely more informative.

But I doubt C78 has the inclination to do that, even though it would give his methodology the credibility it sadly lacks at the moment.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 19, 2017, 16:35:43 pm
I'd still like to see the numbers based on points gained using the position of the opposition at the time we played them, rather than when they are now as that is infinitely more informative.

But I doubt C78 has the inclination to do that, even though it would give his methodology the credibility it sadly lacks at the moment.

Really? Youíd think it would be more accurate judging a teams strength based on alphabetical order or after 1 game. Itís a point of view I suppose.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 19, 2017, 16:38:23 pm
If people want to know what itís like to be a football fan just direct them to this thread. Itís like doing a five hour round trip to watch your team get a 5 goal thumping at Oldham, moaning about how crap they are, and then doing it all again in the next week or so. Or spending 2 hours in the pub arguing about the merits of the colour of the latest away strip. Alternatively how about spending the best part of 6 months and 28 pages on this site arguing about whether itís easier to play teams in the top or bottom half of the table, itís absolutely insane. Welcome to the world of the average football supporter and god bless you all, canít get enough of it me!

The fact people are still arguing that teams in the bottom half are not easier than teams in the top half is the thing I find funniest. These people definitely sit in the upper West Stand south end.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on December 20, 2017, 14:09:44 pm
Beat Blackburn on Saturday and we have got more points against the top half than the bottom half after half a season. Meaning this easier games to come bulls*** is even more irrelevant than it is now.

Thank god Bristol Rovers and Oldham were two of the easier games this season, phew.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 20, 2017, 15:36:03 pm
Beat Blackburn on Saturday and we have got more points against the top half than the bottom half after half a season. Meaning this easier games to come bulls*** is even more irrelevant than it is now.

Thank god Bristol Rovers and Oldham were two of the easier games this season, phew.

Did we beat Blackburn this coming Saturday?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on December 20, 2017, 15:55:01 pm
29 pages of this utter bulls***.

ridiculous


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 20, 2017, 16:37:02 pm
29 pages of this utter bulls***.

ridiculous


Luckily this post has really improved the content 😂


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on December 20, 2017, 19:51:21 pm
29 pages of this utter bulls***.

ridiculous

This is the most factually correct posting yet.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on December 21, 2017, 11:50:17 am
Did we beat Blackburn this coming Saturday?

Nicely done, completely ignoring the fact that are two heaviest defeats have come in some of the easier games.

So IF we beat Blackburn are you going to end your constant trolling and pointless banality?



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on December 21, 2017, 14:32:55 pm
Really? Youíd think it would be more accurate judging a teams strength based on alphabetical order or after 1 game. Itís a point of view I suppose.

You really are an arrogant so and so aren't you?

Anyway, I think it would have as much value as your method tbf.

You still haven't grasped the FACT that an average can't move about like yours does and a game can only be judged as easy or hard based on a teams position at the time they are played. By your method (any you need to own up to this unless you're too scared) a game can be played in October and be deemed to be hard but then that teams form dips and when you're doing your calculations in December, you are re-assessing the same game that was hard as now easy. Surely even you can see that once an event has passed, its difficulty cannot change? Its physically impossible!

To respond to your arrogant "it's a point of view I suppose" remark: Clearly, you need a a reasonable number of games to have been played before there is sufficient data to base any opinion on, regardless of the method. The larger the population of results, the more accurate predictions are likely to be. I don't recall how you worked out the possible outcome of the Shrewsbury game...

Seriously, you think you know what you're talking about but you don't, you're clueless. GCSE Grade 4 in Maths at best....


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 21, 2017, 15:13:07 pm
Nicely done, completely ignoring the fact that are two heaviest defeats have come in some of the easier games.

So IF we beat Blackburn are you going to end your constant trolling and pointless banality?



Itís ďourĒ two heaviest defeats.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 21, 2017, 15:16:46 pm
You really are an arrogant so and so aren't you?

Anyway, I think it would have as much value as your method tbf.

You still haven't grasped the FACT that an average can't move about like yours does and a game can only be judged as easy or hard based on a teams position at the time they are played. By your method (any you need to own up to this unless you're too scared) a game can be played in October and be deemed to be hard but then that teams form dips and when you're doing your calculations in December, you are re-assessing the same game that was hard as now easy. Surely even you can see that once an event has passed, its difficulty cannot change? Its physically impossible!

To respond to your arrogant "it's a point of view I suppose" remark: Clearly, you need a a reasonable number of games to have been played before there is sufficient data to base any opinion on, regardless of the method. The larger the population of results, the more accurate predictions are likely to be. I don't recall how you worked out the possible outcome of the Shrewsbury game...

Seriously, you think you know what you're talking about but you don't, you're clueless. GCSE Grade 4 in Maths at best....

This has nothing to do with Maths, itís about common sense, so I understand why youíre struggling. Just read the other, simpler, threads and ignore this one if itís confusing you or causing you stress.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on December 21, 2017, 15:37:54 pm
This has nothing to do with Maths, itís about common sense, so I understand why youíre struggling. Just read the other, simpler, threads and ignore this one if itís confusing you or causing you stress.

Another response scoring 10 out of 10 on the Tw@t scale

It's entirely about maths, you quote average points and then multiply out to project a year end total. You really are making yourself look sillier by the post.

And still dodging the issue...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: slabtish on December 21, 2017, 15:40:14 pm
when a team is beaten  tis an easy game, when we lose its a hard game, and when we draw i just cannot cope !


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 21, 2017, 15:50:00 pm
Another response scoring 10 out of 10 on the Tw@t scale

It's entirely about maths, you quote average points and then multiply out to project a year end total. You really are making yourself look sillier by the post.

And still dodging the issue...

Speaking of dodging the point, youíll accept the following bet as there is no such thing as easier or harder ganes(no draws)

I bet you £50 per game we lose to Blackburn (h), Wigan (h) Blackburn (a) Charlton (h), Peterborough (a), Bradford (a), Sc***horpe (a) and the that we beat Gillingham (H), Plymouth (H), Rochdale (H), MK Dons (h) and Wimbledon (a)

Put your money where your mouth is if my theory is rubbish, that goes for anyone.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on December 21, 2017, 16:38:08 pm
get better odds at the bookies mate


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 21, 2017, 16:57:06 pm
get better odds at the bookies mate


Thereís a reason for that, fancy taking a wild guess at what it is? *Clue* read the title of the thread.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on December 21, 2017, 17:58:29 pm
To add a bit of balance
Iím glad I didnít lump on us to beat Oldham (A)or Wimbledon (H) on the basis they were easy games

You can have as much as you want with me on us winning either of those! ::)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on December 21, 2017, 19:24:24 pm



 GCSE Grade 4 in Maths at best....
As issued by Kingsbrook School, Deanshanger.  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 21, 2017, 23:59:34 pm
Speaking of dodging the point, youíll accept the following bet as there is no such thing as easier or harder ganes(no draws)

I bet you £50 per game we lose to Blackburn (h), Wigan (h) Blackburn (a) Charlton (h), Peterborough (a), Bradford (a), Sc***horpe (a) and the that we beat Gillingham (H), Plymouth (H), Rochdale (H), MK Dons (h) and Wimbledon (a)

Put your money where your mouth is if my theory is rubbish, that goes for anyone.

No takers I see. I can only assume that you all agree with me now. Shame it took so long for the penny to drop.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: wrigleys on December 22, 2017, 06:06:07 am
Yes I agree with you now


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on December 22, 2017, 08:10:14 am
No takers I see. I can only assume that you all agree with me now. Shame it took so long for the penny to drop.

I seem to remember you didn't want to put money on this earlier this season despite what the stats/projection said?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 08:12:47 am
I seem to remember you didn't want to put money on this earlier this season despite what the stats/projection said?

Iíd check again if I were you.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on December 22, 2017, 08:54:33 am
Oh, so you did put money on us making the playoffs then when that was the projection based on stats? My mistake...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on December 22, 2017, 08:55:44 am
No takers I see. I can only assume that you all agree with me now. Shame it took so long for the penny to drop.
Il take the bet on Wigan (H) and Peterborough (A)
On the proviso that you put £50 on with me on Wimbledon (H) and Oldham (A) which you would have definitely backed anyway under the failsafe system you have concocted.

As I cannot actually lose I think itís only fair to donate any winnings to the trust.
If you could see your way to doing that then it would be great and a very kind gesture that would add some interest to this boring thread.

Your unswerving dedication to your system which has proved so accurate will probably not cost you a payout but itís good to see you offer the bets and itís all in a good cause.

Fair play to you for risking your own cash
That shows great faith in your system.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on December 22, 2017, 09:16:10 am
This has nothing to do with Maths, itís about common sense, so I understand why youíre struggling. Just read the other, simpler, threads and ignore this one if itís confusing you or causing you stress.

That's clearly why you are struggling to grasp anything! The lack of common sense!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on December 22, 2017, 09:17:59 am
Il take the bet on Wigan (H) and Peterborough (A)
On the proviso that you put £50 on with me on Wimbledon (H) and Oldham (A) which you would have definitely backed anyway under the failsafe system you have concocted.

As I cannot actually lose I think itís only fair to donate any winnings to the trust.
If you could see your way to doing that then it would be great and a very kind gesture that would add some interest to this boring thread.

Your unswerving dedication to your system which has proved so accurate will probably not cost you a payout but itís good to see you offer the bets and itís all in a good cause.

Fair play to you for risking your own cash
That shows great faith in your system.

you are my new favourite cobblers fan


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: The Rauldinho on December 22, 2017, 09:27:40 am
Il take the bet on Wigan (H) and Peterborough (A)
On the proviso that you put £50 on with me on Wimbledon (H) and Oldham (A) which you would have definitely backed anyway under the failsafe system you have concocted.
As I cannot actually lose I think itís only fair to donate any winnings to the trust.
If you could see your way to doing that then it would be great and a very kind gesture that would add some interest to this boring thread.
Your unswerving dedication to your system which has proved so accurate will probably not cost you a payout but itís good to see you offer the bets and itís all in a good cause.
Fair play to you for risking your own cash
That shows great faith in your system.

This seems very fair, and a nice gesture to donate any profit to the trust.

Will be interesting to see if the offer is accepted, cannot see any reason why it wouldn't be.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on December 22, 2017, 10:02:20 am
Speaking of dodging the point, youíll accept the following bet as there is no such thing as easier or harder ganes(no draws)

I bet you £50 per game we lose to Blackburn (h), Wigan (h) Blackburn (a) Charlton (h), Peterborough (a), Bradford (a), Sc***horpe (a) and the that we beat Gillingham (H), Plymouth (H), Rochdale (H), MK Dons (h) and Wimbledon (a)

Put your money where your mouth is if my theory is rubbish, that goes for anyone.

The problem here is that I don't disagree that the first seven games you list are likely to be tougher, or the latter 5 easier. that's because you are using the CURRENT league position. Noone on here disagrees with you on that point. Noone disagrees that playing a team in the top four should normally be tougher than playing one in the bottom four. We all get that, so you can drop that part of the argument, there's really no battle to win on that score.

The issue I've had and always had (without wavering in any way) is that when you do your "projections" you do not consistently use the results based on the table at the time was played. If we beat a top team in October and you recalculate in December and that team is now in the bottom, you change your assessment. You say we haven't beaten a top team, even though back in October you said we did! This is the issue. Please learn to separate the two.

You are RIGHT on the first issue although tbh, it's impossible to be wrong. You are most definitely WRONG on the second.

It would be great if you could just address the second issue rather than harping on about the first and totally avoiding the part where your theory falls flat on its face. I have explained this very clearly several times now, so won't be bothering again.

As for the bet, no thanks. I'm not the stupid one. And you shouldn't either as its backing against your own theory. Half those teams could be in the opposite half of the table in six games time :)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on December 22, 2017, 12:13:21 pm
Itís ďourĒ two heaviest defeats.

Concentrating on a typo instead of responding to the points, classic sign of having lost the argument.

Unlucky, you kept your trolling / ignorance / arrogance (delete as appropriate) going for a while but unravelled yourself in the end.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 12:44:34 pm
Il take the bet on Wigan (H) and Peterborough (A)
On the proviso that you put £50 on with me on Wimbledon (H) and Oldham (A) which you would have definitely backed anyway under the failsafe system you have concocted.

As I cannot actually lose I think itís only fair to donate any winnings to the trust.
If you could see your way to doing that then it would be great and a very kind gesture that would add some interest to this boring thread.

Your unswerving dedication to your system which has proved so accurate will probably not cost you a payout but itís good to see you offer the bets and itís all in a good cause.

Fair play to you for risking your own cash
That shows great faith in your system.

Where did I say it was fail safe?

Fancy the bet, or not? If not, why not.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 12:45:21 pm
Oh, so you did put money on us making the playoffs then when that was the projection based on stats? My mistake...

Where did I say we would definitely make the playoffs?



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 12:46:41 pm
The problem here is that I don't disagree that the first seven games you list are likely to be tougher, or the latter 5 easier. that's because you are using the CURRENT league position. Noone on here disagrees with you on that point. Noone disagrees that playing a team in the top four should normally be tougher than playing one in the bottom four. We all get that, so you can drop that part of the argument, there's really no battle to win on that score.

The issue I've had and always had (without wavering in any way) is that when you do your "projections" you do not consistently use the results based on the table at the time was played. If we beat a top team in October and you recalculate in December and that team is now in the bottom, you change your assessment. You say we haven't beaten a top team, even though back in October you said we did! This is the issue. Please learn to separate the two.

You are RIGHT on the first issue although tbh, it's impossible to be wrong. You are most definitely WRONG on the second.

It would be great if you could just address the second issue rather than harping on about the first and totally avoiding the part where your theory falls flat on its face. I have explained this very clearly several times now, so won't be bothering again.

As for the bet, no thanks. I'm not the stupid one. And you shouldn't either as its backing against your own theory. Half those teams could be in the opposite half of the table in six games time :)

I stopped reading after your first sentence, sorry it took you this long to agree with my simple point.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on December 22, 2017, 12:49:29 pm
Can't believe everyone's getting sucked into Cobb78's delusional little world.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on December 22, 2017, 13:05:43 pm
Where did I say we would definitely make the playoffs?



Ah so you didn't make the bet. Thought so; hypocrite.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 13:17:53 pm
Ah so you didn't make the bet. Thought so; hypocrite.

Why would I? Thatís not the point of this thread.

I assume you wonít be accepting my bet? And I assume you donít fancy it because 7 of the games are significantly harder than the other 5. Which in itself proves that you agree with me.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on December 22, 2017, 13:49:14 pm
The projections are borne out of the stats you provide, so I'd say they are highly relevant to the thread. But because they didn't fit in with your argument you ignore it!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on December 22, 2017, 14:19:07 pm
Where did I say it was fail safe?

Fancy the bet, or not? If not, why not.
Touchť
If YOU fancy the bet let me know
You are the one trying to justify a flawed system as witnessed by the Home beating by Wimbledon and the away gubbing by lowly Oldham(only conceded five)
I would imagine these were by your systems intricate workings so called easy games....
I did try explaining moons ago why constant variables within the game mean that each game must be judged on recent form only and not by occuracies from months earlier(how football odds compilers work),but you seem in blind denial of this.
Donít take my word for it,send off your system to a couple of bookmakers and see if they change their betting strategies...
Under your system youíd have had us favourites to win at oldham :o ;
Donít apply for any odds compilers job anytime soon!!

Anyway Iím happy to take the bet on the terms that you are two bets down via the Wimbledon and Oldham shocks and your distinct lack of any basic football odds compiling may result in a bonus for the trust.

Your self belief in this flawed system is in some ways admirable and Iím sure the trust would be more than happy for you to donate if necessary.

I hope this helps explain the realities of football odds compiling for you
Ie) Peterborough could end up in administration selling all their players before we play them thus being forced to play a youth team and thus getting walloped by the resurgent cobblers
VOILA £50 to the trust because your system takes into account factors from too far back to have a bearing on the here and now.

Iíve tried to tell you how football odds are actually compiled in the real world by people who earn a wage doing it and companies who employ them to do so knowing that vast sums of money are at risk if their strategies regards odds compiling fail.

This isnít a personal dig at a fellow fan just an attempt to let you know what really goes on and why your system is flawed.




Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 14:48:45 pm
Touchť
If YOU fancy the bet let me know
You are the one trying to justify a flawed system as witnessed by the Home beating by Wimbledon and the away gubbing by lowly Oldham(only conceded five)
I would imagine these were by your systems intricate workings so called easy games....
I did try explaining moons ago why constant variables within the game mean that each game must be judged on recent form only and not by occuracies from months earlier(how football odds compilers work),but you seem in blind denial of this.
Donít take my word for it,send off your system to a couple of bookmakers and see if they change their betting strategies...
Under your system youíd have had us favourites to win at oldham :o ;
Donít apply for any odds compilers job anytime soon!!

Anyway Iím happy to take the bet on the terms that you are two bets down via the Wimbledon and Oldham shocks and your distinct lack of any basic football odds compiling may result in a bonus for the trust.

Your self belief in this flawed system is in some ways admirable and Iím sure the trust would be more than happy for you to donate if necessary.

I hope this helps explain the realities of football odds compiling for you
Ie) Peterborough could end up in administration selling all their players before we play them thus being forced to play a youth team and thus getting walloped by the resurgent cobblers
VOILA £50 to the trust because your system takes into account factors from too far back to have a bearing on the here and now.

Iíve tried to tell you how football odds are actually compiled in the real world by people who earn a wage doing it and companies who employ them to do so knowing that vast sums of money are at risk if their strategies regards odds compiling fail.

This isnít a personal dig at a fellow fan just an attempt to let you know what really goes on and why your system is flawed.




Say no more. You wonít accept the bet on the up coming games. We both know the reason you wonít accept, you just canít admit it to yourself. Letís leave it at that.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on December 22, 2017, 15:07:41 pm
Did he not just say he'll bet with you if you want to?  >:D



'If YOU fancy the bet let me know'


(if you missed that bit)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 15:10:59 pm
Did he not just say he'll bet with you if you want to?  >:D



'If YOU fancy the bet let me know'


(if you missed that bit)

Try reading it properly.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on December 22, 2017, 15:16:12 pm
What? his conditions...Well I think its only fair considering you missed out two easy games in B.Rovers (A) and Oldham (H).

I wonder why you missed them out?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on December 22, 2017, 15:17:10 pm
Say no more. You wonít accept the bet on the up coming games. We both know the reason you wonít accept, you just canít admit it to yourself. Letís leave it at that.
Please make any money owing payable to the trust and thanks for the generous Christmas gesture.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on December 22, 2017, 15:45:07 pm
If Shoemaker and Cobbler78 do actually fancy this bet, may as well make it fair and simple.

If Cobblers beat a bottom half side, Cobbler78 wins £50 from Shoemaker.

If Cobblers beat a top half side, Shoemaker wins £50 from Cobbler78.

If you don't believe in easier games.... Shoemaker has more to win due to Cobblers being a bottom half side (more fixtures against top half...).

Starting after the Blackburn game when, exactly halfway through the season.

(Stakes are a lot higher than the couple quid I bet on a weekly basis!!  :o ;D )


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 15:56:36 pm
If Shoemaker and Cobbler78 do actually fancy this bet, may as well make it fair and simple.

If Cobblers beat a bottom half side, Cobbler78 wins £50 from Shoemaker.

If Cobblers beat a top half side, Shoemaker wins £50 from Cobbler78.

If you don't believe in easier games.... Shoemaker has more to win due to Cobblers being a bottom half side (more fixtures against top half...).

Starting after the Blackburn game when, exactly halfway through the season.

(Stakes are a lot higher than the couple quid I bet on a weekly basis!!  :o ;D )

Agreed. Shoemaker, you fancy it?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on December 22, 2017, 18:38:53 pm
If Shoemaker and Cobbler78 do actually fancy this bet, may as well make it fair and simple.

If Cobblers beat a bottom half side, Cobbler78 wins £50 from Shoemaker.

If Cobblers beat a top half side, Shoemaker wins £50 from Cobbler78.

If you don't believe in easier games.... Shoemaker has more to win due to Cobblers being a bottom half side (more fixtures against top half...).

Starting after the Blackburn game when, exactly halfway through the season.

(Stakes are a lot higher than the couple quid I bet on a weekly basis!!  :o
;D )
Il leave that to you
I was just happy to take a bet governed by the terms of the original synopsis
Obviously we should according to the two bob system have thrashed Wimbledon and oldham so I took that as a given  ::)
78 would have bet his bollocks on those given his system :o
Unfortunately heíd have done his bollocks
So £100 down on those two easy games
You canít argue that
It is FACT it has happened
I have no idea if we will avoid defeat against Wigan or posh as I donít follow this dumb system.
Hence maybe the trust will get £100
If you wish to have a bet with this system then fair play to you.
Maybe you can also put £100 into the trust and if so that is also a really generous offer
Fair play to you


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on December 22, 2017, 18:53:56 pm
In fairness how many people on here actually fail to grasp the concept of how football matches are priced up even though itís been explained clearly.
Iím not sure if this is a wind up or if certain posters canít grasp it.
Iím just interested to see if more than one person fails to grasp it as it will give a genuine demographic of the general intelligence of posters on this board.

I canít teach anyone on here bricklaying or car repairs but I have been employed as an odds compiler so actually have some experience of this.
Has anyone else on here worked for a bookmaking firm as an on course odds compiler??

If not Iíd ask just to respect the fact that for once I may know more than others regards this.
Just to add balance if their are future threads on here regards car mechanics or bricklaying I wonít throw my two penneth in as I would feel silly prattling on about something I had no experience of


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on December 22, 2017, 19:24:30 pm
In fairness how many people on here actually fail to grasp the concept of how football matches are priced up even though itís been explained clearly.
Iím not sure if this is a wind up or if certain posters canít grasp it.
Iím just interested to see if more than one person fails to grasp it as it will give a genuine demographic of the general intelligence of posters on this board.

I canít teach anyone on here bricklaying or car repairs but I have been employed as an odds compiler so actually have some experience of this.
Has anyone else on here worked for a bookmaking firm as an on course odds compiler??

If not Iíd ask just to respect the fact that for once I may know more than others regards this.
Just to add balance if their are future threads on here regards car mechanics or bricklaying I wonít throw my two penneth in as I would feel silly prattling on about something I had no experience of

Thatís really interesting. Could you let us know how football odds are compiled? Thanks.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on December 22, 2017, 19:44:09 pm
Shoey, your last two posts may have just shut up this arrogant twat, for a while. My congratulations are offered.
And number 78, your Linkedin page is a real hoot. I enjoyed reading that. Its too late to change the settings though. Youre not quite as sharp, as you thought you were son.  ;D
Have a good xmas.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 21:54:13 pm
Shoey, your last two posts may have just shut up this arrogant twat, for a while. My congratulations are offered.
And number 78, your Linkedin page is a real hoot. I enjoyed reading that. Its too late to change the settings though. Youre not quite as sharp, as you thought you were son.  ;D
Have a good xmas.

Wow, you really are keen. Maybe I should set up a fan club for you.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 21:57:51 pm
Il leave that to you
I was just happy to take a bet governed by the terms of the original synopsis
Obviously we should according to the two bob system have thrashed Wimbledon and oldham so I took that as a given  ::)
78 would have bet his bollocks on those given his system :o
Unfortunately heíd have done his bollocks
So £100 down on those two easy games
You canít argue that
It is FACT it has happened
I have no idea if we will avoid defeat against Wigan or posh as I donít follow this dumb system.
Hence maybe the trust will get £100
If you wish to have a bet with this system then fair play to you.
Maybe you can also put £100 into the trust and if so that is also a really generous offer
Fair play to you


Haha, your subconscious is correct in telling you that you would lose the bet, itís a shame your conscious self doesnít have the foggiest why this is.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on December 22, 2017, 22:02:37 pm
Wow, you really are keen. Maybe I should set up a fan club for you.
I dont think so Richard. You truly are an arrogant ****.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 22:08:57 pm
In fairness how many people on here actually fail to grasp the concept of how football matches are priced up even though itís been explained clearly.
Iím not sure if this is a wind up or if certain posters canít grasp it.
Iím just interested to see if more than one person fails to grasp it as it will give a genuine demographic of the general intelligence of posters on this board.

I canít teach anyone on here bricklaying or car repairs but I have been employed as an odds compiler so actually have some experience of this.
Has anyone else on here worked for a bookmaking firm as an on course odds compiler??

If not Iíd ask just to respect the fact that for once I may know more than others regards this.
Just to add balance if their are future threads on here regards car mechanics or bricklaying I wonít throw my two penneth in as I would feel silly prattling on about something I had no experience of

Youíre correct, I donít have a clue about how odds are compiled, so I bow to your obvious greater knowledge (that Iím guessing you picked up around 11am on a Monday morning at your local bookies, just after youíd watched Jeremy Kyle and before the off-licence opened) Bit of advice for you though, you canít actually bet on games after they have happened, which is a shame for you as you probably stand half a chance of a chance of breaking even if you could.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 22:13:41 pm
In fairness how many people on here actually fail to grasp the concept of how football matches are priced up even though itís been explained clearly.
Iím not sure if this is a wind up or if certain posters canít grasp it.
Iím just interested to see if more than one person fails to grasp it as it will give a genuine demographic of the general intelligence of posters on this board.

I canít teach anyone on here bricklaying or car repairs but I have been employed as an odds compiler so actually have some experience of this.
Has anyone else on here worked for a bookmaking firm as an on course odds compiler??

If not Iíd ask just to respect the fact that for once I may know more than others regards this.
Just to add balance if their are future threads on here regards car mechanics or bricklaying I wonít throw my two penneth in as I would feel silly prattling on about something I had no experience of

Speaking of feeling silly. Can you explain ďIf their are future threads......Ē


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on December 22, 2017, 22:15:47 pm
Youíre correct, I donít have a clue
You got that bit correct, Richard.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 22:22:12 pm
You got that bit correct, Richard.


Get someone to explain full stops to you.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on December 22, 2017, 22:25:16 pm
And you really do need to to lock your Twitter account ,as well , Richard.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 22:31:50 pm
And you really do need to to lock your Twitter account ,as well , Richard.

Honestly, just ask me on a date or something, donít be shy.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on December 22, 2017, 22:53:21 pm
Honestly, just ask me on a date or something, donít be shy.
Not my type. Your nose is to big.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 22, 2017, 23:01:56 pm
Not my type. Your nose is to big.

*too big


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on December 22, 2017, 23:46:43 pm
At whut age should u stop corecting peoples gramer? My geuss is its way before your about too turn 40...

Don't be that guy, no one likes that guy.

(Unless it's players names who have played for us for years. SO sorry Brendan)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on December 23, 2017, 00:10:10 am
Youíre correct, I donít have a clue about how odds are compiled, so I bow to your obvious greater knowledge (that Iím guessing you picked up around 11am on a Monday morning at your local bookies, just after youíd watched Jeremy Kyle and before the off-licence opened) Bit of advice for you though, you canít actually bet on games after they have happened, which is a shame for you as you probably stand half a chance of a chance of breaking even if you could.
Thankyou for bowing to my greater knowledge
If youíd bother reading my posts (obviously beyond you)youíd realise I was employed as an odds compiler (horseracing) and still make up a tissue(if you know what that is) for a couple of high profile on course bookmakers.
As for advice ::)
What do you do for a living rich?
I donít do twitter etc and I donít bother trolling.
As with David cardoza and neverbrite(tony) when I find out who you are il introduce myself to you and we I can discuss the insults aimed at me personally.
Good luck with that ;)
As David and tony(when heís not showing off his classic cars or forgetting heíd already met me) will vouch Iím more than willing to talk the talk and walk the walk.
Iím away for Christmas but il catch up with you in the new year for a friendly chat.
As I say I donít do twitter etc but it appears you are active on it and plenty know who you are so itíll be no problem meeting you face to face to discuss any issues you have with me.
Look forward to meeting you in Carrís bar in the near future
Just pm me a match,preferably one of your easier ones and we can meet up.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 23, 2017, 07:28:04 am
Thankyou for bowing to my greater knowledge
If youíd bother reading my posts (obviously beyond you)youíd realise I was employed as an odds compiler (horseracing) and still make up a tissue(if you know what that is) for a couple of high profile on course bookmakers.
As for advice ::)
What do you do for a living rich?
I donít do twitter etc and I donít bother trolling.
As with David cardoza and neverbrite(tony) when I find out who you are il introduce myself to you and we I can discuss the insults aimed at me personally.
Good luck with that ;)
As David and tony(when heís not showing off his classic cars or forgetting heíd already met me) will vouch Iím more than willing to talk the talk and walk the walk.
Iím away for Christmas but il catch up with you in the new year for a friendly chat.
As I say I donít do twitter etc but it appears you are active on it and plenty know who you are so itíll be no problem meeting you face to face to discuss any issues you have with me.
Look forward to meeting you in Carrís bar in the near future
Just pm me a match,preferably one of your easier ones and we can meet up.



Have you agreed to the bet? Happy to shake on it in person as youíre willing to walk the walk.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on December 23, 2017, 09:24:52 am
Have you agreed to the bet? Happy to shake on it in person as youíre willing to walk the walk.
[/quote
Il put you in the picture when I meet you but I havenít received a PM from you yet.
How will I recognise you as Iím not on twitter and havent seen your photo rich?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 23, 2017, 09:34:41 am
Have you agreed to the bet? Happy to shake on it in person as youíre willing to walk the walk.
[/quote
Il put you in the picture when I meet you but I havenít received a PM from you yet.
How will I recognise you as Iím not on twitter and havent seen your photo rich?

A simple yes or no, thatís all I need. If yes Iíll happily meet you, if no there is no need as you agree with without fully understanding why.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on December 23, 2017, 10:03:13 am
It doesn't matter how you paint it folks. This twerp will never back down.

He knows he is wrong and is now just on a wind up mission. I'm embarrassed he follows our team and has Cobbler in his SN. I won't lower myself to his Jeremy Kyle type insults but I will say that this, congratulations on winning the award for the most disliked and cringeworthy person on the board. Hope you're nicer in real life


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 23, 2017, 10:06:25 am
It doesn't matter how you paint it folks. This twerp will never back down.

He knows he is wrong and is now just on a wind up mission. I'm embarrassed he follows our team and has Cobbler in his SN. I won't lower myself to his Jeremy Kyle type insults but I will say that this, congratulations on winning the award for the most disliked and cringeworthy person on the board. Hope you're nicer in real life

If Iím wrong, fancy putting your money where your mouth is?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on December 23, 2017, 10:17:47 am
It doesn't matter how you paint it folks. This twerp will never back down.

He knows he is wrong and is now just on a wind up mission. I'm embarrassed he follows our team and has Cobbler in his SN. I won't lower myself to his Jeremy Kyle type insults but I will say that this, congratulations on winning the award for the most disliked and cringeworthy person on the board. Hope you're nicer in real life

Agreed, total twerp!

Even if we were to beat Blackburn today meaning our point haul against top half teams would be MORE than those in the bottom half (easier). That still would not shut the pretencious little prick up!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 23, 2017, 10:24:22 am
Agreed, total twerp!

Even if we were to beat Blackburn today meaning our point haul against top half teams would be MORE than those in the bottom half (easier). That still would not shut the pretencious little prick up!

The bet is open to you also if youíre that confident that Iím wrong.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on December 23, 2017, 11:02:47 am
A simple yes or no, thatís all I need. If yes Iíll happily meet you, if no there is no need as you agree with without fully understanding why.
i
Il catch up with you soon rich now I know who you are.
We can discuss our bets and your childish insults.
Obviously your not interested in meeting me otherwise youíd have PMd me but Iím more than interested in meeting you.
Iím sure il catch up with you pre match in Carrís bar prior to a match.
Up the cobblers


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 23, 2017, 11:25:31 am
i
Il catch up with you soon rich now I know who you are.
We can discuss our bets and your childish insults.
Obviously your not interested in meeting me otherwise youíd have PMd me but Iím more than interested in meeting you.
Iím sure il catch up with you pre match in Carrís bar prior to a match.
Up the cobblers

*youíre* not interested.......


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: vietnamcobbler on December 23, 2017, 16:06:59 pm
*youíre* not interested.......

How old are you? Grow up you sadistic moron.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on December 23, 2017, 16:52:01 pm
Just seen our record against the bottom nine teams (not including us) is won 1 drawn 3 lost 5. Not great is it against the easier teams?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on December 23, 2017, 17:05:44 pm
Oh dear, Blackpool's late equaliser has played havok with old Dickie's stats! I wonder how quick he'll be to post the latest figures now we are at the half way point of the season? Maybe he'll change the title of this thread? I make it twice as many wins against the harder teams than the easy teams.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on December 23, 2017, 17:38:10 pm
Just seen our record against the bottom nine teams (not including us) is won 1 drawn 3 lost 5. Not great is it against the easier teams?

Agreed. At the start of the 'easier games' run, I was optimistic of a little run developing which never really got started. We seem to fair better against the middle third of the table as opposed to top or bottom.

Up to JFH to target the easier teams in the second half to steer us to a mediocre midtable finish (I can dream).


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on December 23, 2017, 17:48:47 pm
Just seen our record against the bottom nine teams (not including us) is won 1 drawn 3 lost 5. Not great is it against the easier teams?
Relegation dogfights are never easy, something else Billy big bo##ocks system doesn't allow for.
I wonder if he remembers this, it's from page one and is his second post on this thread.
And yet, the facts say otherwise, just like they did last season. I'll bet anyone on here that come the end of the season, we pick up more points per game against the teams below us than those above us. You know why, because they are easier.
Currently it's a perfect split.
1 point per game average against teams above us.
1 point per game average against teams below us.
So with our current record against those clubs immediately above us... Shoemaker, Rambo anyone fancy it?

Oh, and the top versus bottom points per game.
Top 1.08
Bottom 0.9

What's your conclusion now C78?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on December 23, 2017, 17:50:01 pm
If you take away the 4 games at the start and just JFH's games we've P19 W6 D5 L8 which would have put us around 15th place. Average start by Jimmy. But not as bad as you think considering we are still in the relegation zone.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on December 24, 2017, 01:46:24 am
In no way is this a comment on the merits of this system, but whether JJ plays or not seems to be the biggest factor regarding a positive result? Just a general observation, I havenít actually checked the points to compare so could be complete bo11ocks, but it does seem that way?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 24, 2017, 11:30:06 am
Vs Top Half 13pts in 12 games, 1.083PPG, projection 26pts
Vs Bottom Half 10pts in 11 games, 0.909PPG, projection 20pts
Total projection 46 points

Merry Xmas


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 24, 2017, 11:32:05 am
In no way is this a comment on the merits of this system, but whether JJ plays or not seems to be the biggest factor regarding a positive result? Just a general observation, I havenít actually checked the points to compare so could be complete bo11ocks, but it does seem that way?

Very good point, can anyone be bothered to check? We are definitely a better team with him in the team.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on December 27, 2017, 12:01:54 pm
Thank god yesterday was another one of those easier games.


Can this thread finally be locked?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on December 27, 2017, 12:16:14 pm
If people stopped posting, the thread would disappear naturally...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 27, 2017, 12:38:44 pm
Thank god yesterday was another one of those easier games.


Can this thread finally be locked?

Why? As Iíve said before, if you donít like it, just donít read or post on it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: DrillingCobbler on December 27, 2017, 13:10:39 pm
I love this thread!  ;D

I make it:

11 points from 12 harder games.
12 points from 12 easier games.

At this point in time its not very conclusive!  ;D

Will our points from the harder games overhaul the ones from the easier games? It could happen this week folks, it could happen!  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BedsCobb on December 27, 2017, 14:25:30 pm
Taken from a mathematical  study at Cambridge university into what makes some teams harder to beat.. proven to be 95% accurate over a 46 game league 1 season.
Hope this helps.

Hard games

w=big town club.
X=proper ground good infrastructure, averaging above 8000
y=money spent assembling squad.
Z=progressive owners/ civic pride in club.

Easier games.
a=small town or based near huge clubs.
b=decrepit  ground with basic facilities regular gates under 5000.
c=squad full of free journey men and loan players.
d=Owners skint or non committal, no investment in future. Little or no civic pride.

3 or more from w x y z hard game
3 or more from a b c d easy game.

Its very unusual for a club to have for example w+x+c+d or any other 2 from 2 combinations.

Cobblers are according to the study are w+b+c+d so therefore is an easy opponent.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on December 27, 2017, 14:40:53 pm
Why? As Iíve said before, if you donít like it, just donít read or post on it.

Because locking it would be the 'online' smack in the face your constant selective posting and trolling warrants and would probably be a catastrophe for your ego.





Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 27, 2017, 15:32:56 pm
Because locking it would be the 'online' smack in the face your constant selective posting and trolling warrants and would probably be a catastrophe for your ego.





What selective posting? Used the same rules all season, do you know what ďselectiveĒ actually means?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 27, 2017, 16:05:56 pm
I love this thread!  ;D

I make it:

11 points from 12 harder games.
12 points from 12 easier games.

At this point in time its not very conclusive!  ;D

Will our points from the harder games overhaul the ones from the easier games? It could happen this week folks, it could happen!  ;D

Spot on, Projection is 22 from 24 vs top half and 22 from 22 from bottom half for a total of 44pts


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on December 28, 2017, 08:29:11 am
What selective posting? Used the same rules all season, do you know what ďselectiveĒ actually means?

Ah bless you, have you written that much crap you can't even remember  ;D

Check back through all your drivel and you will see your SELECTIVE replies. If you are struggling with the concept of word definitions there are plenty on here that can help you out.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 28, 2017, 12:16:43 pm
Ah bless you, have you written that much crap you can't even remember  ;D

Check back through all your drivel and you will see your SELECTIVE replies. If you are struggling with the concept of word definitions there are plenty on here that can help you out.

Nope, youíll have to show me what you mean.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on December 30, 2017, 15:01:05 pm
I stopped reading after your first sentence, sorry it took you this long to agree with my simple point.

Here you go.

Cast iron example of selective posting...

No need to thank me...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on December 30, 2017, 15:04:11 pm
The problem here is that I don't disagree that the first seven games you list are likely to be tougher, or the latter 5 easier. that's because you are using the CURRENT league position. Noone on here disagrees with you on that point. Noone disagrees that playing a team in the top four should normally be tougher than playing one in the bottom four. We all get that, so you can drop that part of the argument, there's really no battle to win on that score.

The issue I've had and always had (without wavering in any way) is that when you do your "projections" you do not consistently use the results based on the table at the time was played. If we beat a top team in October and you recalculate in December and that team is now in the bottom, you change your assessment. You say we haven't beaten a top team, even though back in October you said we did! This is the issue. Please learn to separate the two.

You are RIGHT on the first issue although tbh, it's impossible to be wrong. You are most definitely WRONG on the second.

It would be great if you could just address the second issue rather than harping on about the first and totally avoiding the part where your theory falls flat on its face. I have explained this very clearly several times now, so won't be bothering again.

As for the bet, no thanks. I'm not the stupid one. And you shouldn't either as its backing against your own theory. Half those teams could be in the opposite half of the table in six games time :)

Apologies, missed the original post. You "stopped reading" as the remainder of the post destroys your theory.

Again...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 30, 2017, 17:31:09 pm
Vs Top Half 10pts in 14 games, PPG 0.714, Projection 17pts
Vs Bottom Half 13pts in 11 games, PPG 1.181, Projection 26pts
Total Projection 43pts

Thoughts, more games vs bottom half teams than top half team to come. Things will get better.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BrixworthCobbler on December 30, 2017, 18:39:32 pm
Things won't get better though will they?

Clearly going down.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: ajp on December 30, 2017, 19:02:57 pm
You really believe that 78?!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest2235 on December 30, 2017, 19:16:25 pm
Spot on, Projection is 22 from 24 vs top half and 22 from 22 from bottom half for a total of 44pts
44 points and we are playing league 2 next season


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 30, 2017, 20:03:01 pm
44 points and we are playing league 2 next season

True, letís hope our form picks up and we can get to 55 points (at least). Hopefully two wingers and a striker in January will improve things.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on December 30, 2017, 20:21:28 pm
44 points and we are playing league 2 next season
Absolutely Owl, and it's a prediction of 43 points now.

Vs Top Half 10pts in 14 games, PPG 0.714, Projection 17pts
Vs Bottom Half 13pts in 11 games, PPG 1.181, Projection 26pts
Total Projection 43pts

Thoughts, more games vs bottom half teams than top half team to come. Things will get better.

Your 43 point projection from your own system seems to contrast with your concluding sentence.
Incapable of seeing your own juxtaposition C78?

Oh the irony.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 30, 2017, 20:28:28 pm
Absolutely Owl, and it's a prediction of 43 points now.

Your 43 point projection from your own system seems to contrast with your concluding sentence.
Incapable of seeing your own juxtaposition C78?

Oh the irony.



How? Youíll have to explain what youíre not understanding.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on December 30, 2017, 20:35:08 pm
How? Youíll have to explain what youíre not understanding.
Lol.
You really dont get it do you!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 30, 2017, 20:40:27 pm
Lol.
You really dont get it do you!

One of us doesnít.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on December 30, 2017, 20:46:13 pm
One of us doesnít.
That's right matey.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on December 30, 2017, 23:56:47 pm
Oh dear. We seem to have lost points from one half but gained them in the other again.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on December 31, 2017, 12:12:16 pm
Oh dear. We seem to have lost points from one half but gained them in the other again.



The rules havenít changed.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: eddieeddie on December 31, 2017, 18:57:16 pm
(https://experimental361.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/2017-calendar-year-table-full.png)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: GrangeParkCobbler on December 31, 2017, 19:04:36 pm
How many go down from that league??!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: GrangeParkCobbler on December 31, 2017, 19:15:17 pm
Top top top top top of the league!!

Most league goals conceded!!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on December 31, 2017, 19:45:42 pm
Top top top top top of the league!!

Most league goals conceded!!!
You missed our old friends from Chesterfield...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on December 31, 2017, 20:02:11 pm
You missed our old friends from Chesterfield...
Think we just squeeze them out by 3.
And Ash Taylor is running away with the Pots. Our attack must be truly awful!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on December 31, 2017, 20:32:04 pm
Think we just squeeze them out by 3.
My apologies. I was looking at the goal difference.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on December 31, 2017, 20:45:00 pm
My apologies. I was looking at the goal difference.


Curse the prolific Chesterfield strikers! We could have got a double there.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 01, 2018, 21:47:10 pm
Vs Top Half 10pts in 15 games, 0.667PPG, projection 16
Vs Bottom Half 13pts in 11 games, 1.181PPG, projection 22
Total projection 38pts

20 games to go, we need 30 points, luckily the majority of our remaining games are against weaker teams. I think weíll be fine, but Iím not as confident.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on January 01, 2018, 21:55:16 pm
Vs Top Half 10pts in 15 games, 0.667PPG, projection 16
Vs Bottom Half 13pts in 11 games, 1.181PPG, projection 22
Total projection 38pts

20 games to go, we need 30 points, luckily the majority of our remaining games are against weaker teams. I think weíll be fine, but Iím not as confident.

**** off


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 01, 2018, 22:02:54 pm
**** off

No.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on January 01, 2018, 22:21:06 pm
Vs Top Half 10pts in 15 games, 0.667PPG, projection 16
Vs Bottom Half 13pts in 11 games, 1.181PPG, projection 22
Total projection 38pts

20 games to go, we need 30 points, luckily the majority of our remaining games are against weaker teams. I think weíll be fine, but Iím not as confident.
Your jigsaw has more pieces fitted than empty spaces now C78.

Yet you conclude again 'that we'll be fine'.
An admission then that your own stats and projections are absolute sh#te, and that you don't believe there's any validity in them.
 ;D

It's all your own work C78.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 01, 2018, 22:33:10 pm
Your jigsaw has more pieces fitted than empty spaces now C78.

Yet you conclude again 'that we'll be fine'.
An admission then that your own stats and projections are absolute sh#te, and that you don't believe there's any validity in them.
 ;D

It's all your own work C78.

No idea what youíre talking about, whatís this jigsaw you keep banging on about? Did you ask for one but not get it from Santa?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on January 02, 2018, 17:51:39 pm
No idea what youíre talking about, whatís this jigsaw you keep banging on about? Did you ask for one but not get it from Santa?
This one

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b5/Sky_puzzle.jpg/1024px-Sky_puzzle.jpg)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 07, 2018, 15:05:34 pm
Yet another win in an easier game yesterday

10 points in 15 games vs top half, projection 16 points
16 points in 12 games vs bottom half teams, projection 29 points
Total Projection 45 points

I'm still very confident we'll beat the drop, always have been.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on January 07, 2018, 15:53:43 pm
Yet another win in an easier game yesterday

10 points in 15 games vs top half, projection 16 points
16 points in 12 games vs bottom half teams, projection 29 points
Total Projection 45 points

I'm still very confident we'll beat the drop, always have been.
Really conclusive C78.

For 'yet another win' read 4  ;D
For parity, that equals our record of losses in the easier games (4). Although non of our wins have been by 0-6 or 5-1.
Just another angle matey.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 07, 2018, 22:26:06 pm
Really conclusive C78.

For 'yet another win' read 4  ;D
For parity, that equals our record of losses in the easier games (4). Although non of our wins have been by 0-6 or 5-1.
Just another angle matey.

The only angle that matters is the points per game, we get twice as many points per game vs bottom half teams compared to those currently in the top half, conclusive proof.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on January 07, 2018, 22:39:26 pm
The only angle that matters is the points per game, we get twice as many points per game vs bottom half teams compared to those currently in the top half, conclusive proof.



Hahahahahahaha


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 08, 2018, 10:24:35 am
The theory hasn't exactly fared to well over the past month or so has it so C78 must be ecstatic we finally got some points from one of his easier games.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 08, 2018, 11:43:20 am
Apologies in advance for crazy formatting......


C78, your results are incorrect, though admittedly not by much.

Seeing as you couldn't be ar$ed (or you knew the outcome) here is the job done properly.

League positions stated are immediately prior to kick off, so whether a team is top half or not is accurate at the time of playing and consequently, the points gained are based on that position - they don't "drift" like in your weird method:

                                                                                 Position prior to game   Cumulative points   v Top   v Bottom
                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                            11         15

06 Jan 2018   Northampton Town v Southend United           3-1   W            17                            26                                    3
01 Jan 2018   Northampton Town v Wigan Athletic           0-1   L             1                            23                      0   
30 Dec 2017   Portsmouth v Northampton Town           3-1   L             7                            23                      0   
26 Dec 2017   Doncaster Rovers v Northampton Town   3-0   L            14                            23                                    0
23 Dec 2017   Northampton Town v Blackburn Rovers   1-1   D             3                            23                                         1   
16 Dec 2017   Northampton Town v Walsall                   2-1   W           11                            22                      3   
09 Dec 2017   Oldham Athletic v Northampton Town           5-1   L           18                            19                                    0
25 Nov 2017   Northampton Town v Bury                           0-0   D           24                            19                                    1
21 Nov 2017   Plymouth Argyle v Northampton Town           2-0   L           23                            18                                    0
18 Nov 2017   Northampton Town v Sc***horpe United   0-3   L             5                            18                      0   
11 Nov 2017   Oxford United v Northampton Town           1-2   W           10                            18                 3
28 Oct 2017   Northampton Town v Blackpool                   1-0   W             9                            15                 3
21 Oct 2017   Gillingham v Northampton Town                   1-2   W           22                            12                                    3
17 Oct 2017   Rochdale v Northampton Town                   2-2   D           20                              9                                    1
14 Oct 2017   Northampton Town v AFC Wimbledon           0-1   L           21                              8                                    0
07 Oct 2017   Northampton Town v Bristol Rovers           0-6   L           14                              8                                    0
30 Sep 2017   Rotherham United v Northampton Town   1-0   L           10                              8                      0   
26 Sep 2017   Milton Keynes Dons v Northampton Town   0-0   D           11                              8                      1   
23 Sep 2017   Northampton Town v Bradford City           0-1   L             4                              7                      0   
19 Sep 2017   Wigan Athletic v Northampton Town           1-0   L             5                              7                      0   
16 Sep 2017   Southend United v Northampton Town           2-2   D           19                              7                                    1
12 Sep 2017   Northampton Town v Portsmouth           3-1   W           14                              6                                    3
09 Sep 2017   Northampton Town v Doncaster Rovers   1-0   W           13                              3                                    3
26 Aug 2017   Northampton Town v Peterborough United   1-4   L             2                              0                      0   
19 Aug 2017   Charlton Athletic v Northampton Town           4-1   L           13                              0                                    0
12 Aug 2017   Northampton Town v Fleetwood Town           0-1   L             1                              0                      0   
05 Aug 2017   Shrewsbury Town v Northampton Town   1-0   L             0                              0                              N/A   
                     
                     
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-one/05-january-2018/

It will be interesting to see if you are big enough to own up and accept that the above is a more accurate method of calculating points gained relative to league position. I doubt you will though.

And although this method shows very similar results to your flawed method,    the thing is does point out most obviously is this - you cannot project even nearly accurately how many points we might gain in the future - at least not using the above results. You simply do not know with any certainty where a team will be positioned in the league by the time we play them, so it's impossible to project we'll get x number of points from top sides because you don't know who will be top.

Incidentally, this took 30 mins to knock up using the website linked above. Pity, if you'd paid similar due diligence your views may have gotten the credibility you crave. Sadly, everyone bar none on this thread thinks you're just a stubborn sad loser.

Glad to be of service :)                  


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 08, 2018, 11:43:59 am
Meh

This site doesn't like tables does it?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on January 08, 2018, 12:15:42 pm
Rambo, the way you have done it is exactly what I have said in the past and queried the 'logic' on. Interesting to see how much difference it has made so far and how much it will by the end of the season.

Now can you do it based on the form table at the start of each game  ;)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 08, 2018, 14:13:26 pm
Apologies in advance for crazy formatting......


C78, your results are incorrect, though admittedly not by much.

Seeing as you couldn't be ar$ed (or you knew the outcome) here is the job done properly.

League positions stated are immediately prior to kick off, so whether a team is top half or not is accurate at the time of playing and consequently, the points gained are based on that position - they don't "drift" like in your weird method:

                                                                                 Position prior to game   Cumulative points   v Top   v Bottom
                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                            11         15

06 Jan 2018   Northampton Town v Southend United           3-1   W            17                            26                                    3
01 Jan 2018   Northampton Town v Wigan Athletic           0-1   L             1                            23                      0   
30 Dec 2017   Portsmouth v Northampton Town           3-1   L             7                            23                      0   
26 Dec 2017   Doncaster Rovers v Northampton Town   3-0   L            14                            23                                    0
23 Dec 2017   Northampton Town v Blackburn Rovers   1-1   D             3                            23                                         1   
16 Dec 2017   Northampton Town v Walsall                   2-1   W           11                            22                      3   
09 Dec 2017   Oldham Athletic v Northampton Town           5-1   L           18                            19                                    0
25 Nov 2017   Northampton Town v Bury                           0-0   D           24                            19                                    1
21 Nov 2017   Plymouth Argyle v Northampton Town           2-0   L           23                            18                                    0
18 Nov 2017   Northampton Town v Sc***horpe United   0-3   L             5                            18                      0   
11 Nov 2017   Oxford United v Northampton Town           1-2   W           10                            18                 3
28 Oct 2017   Northampton Town v Blackpool                   1-0   W             9                            15                 3
21 Oct 2017   Gillingham v Northampton Town                   1-2   W           22                            12                                    3
17 Oct 2017   Rochdale v Northampton Town                   2-2   D           20                              9                                    1
14 Oct 2017   Northampton Town v AFC Wimbledon           0-1   L           21                              8                                    0
07 Oct 2017   Northampton Town v Bristol Rovers           0-6   L           14                              8                                    0
30 Sep 2017   Rotherham United v Northampton Town   1-0   L           10                              8                      0   
26 Sep 2017   Milton Keynes Dons v Northampton Town   0-0   D           11                              8                      1   
23 Sep 2017   Northampton Town v Bradford City           0-1   L             4                              7                      0   
19 Sep 2017   Wigan Athletic v Northampton Town           1-0   L             5                              7                      0   
16 Sep 2017   Southend United v Northampton Town           2-2   D           19                              7                                    1
12 Sep 2017   Northampton Town v Portsmouth           3-1   W           14                              6                                    3
09 Sep 2017   Northampton Town v Doncaster Rovers   1-0   W           13                              3                                    3
26 Aug 2017   Northampton Town v Peterborough United   1-4   L             2                              0                      0   
19 Aug 2017   Charlton Athletic v Northampton Town           4-1   L           13                              0                                    0
12 Aug 2017   Northampton Town v Fleetwood Town           0-1   L             1                              0                      0   
05 Aug 2017   Shrewsbury Town v Northampton Town   1-0   L             0                              0                              N/A   
                     
                     
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-one/05-january-2018/

It will be interesting to see if you are big enough to own up and accept that the above is a more accurate method of calculating points gained relative to league position. I doubt you will though.

And although this method shows very similar results to your flawed method,    the thing is does point out most obviously is this - you cannot project even nearly accurately how many points we might gain in the future - at least not using the above results. You simply do not know with any certainty where a team will be positioned in the league by the time we play them, so it's impossible to project we'll get x number of points from top sides because you don't know who will be top.

Incidentally, this took 30 mins to knock up using the website linked above. Pity, if you'd paid similar due diligence your views may have gotten the credibility you crave. Sadly, everyone bar none on this thread thinks you're just a stubborn sad loser.

Glad to be of service :)                  

My results are 100% correct, you are confused as you are comparing apples to oranges. Yours are interesting, but I am not comparing position as at kick off. I feel my comparison is more accurate as what sort of of accuracy can you place on the table after 1 or 2 games? My theory is more and more accurate as the seseason progresses. If you want to keep yours updated it will be interesting how they compare come the end of the season as mine will be 100% accurate, I guarantee it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on January 08, 2018, 14:48:25 pm
in the defence of cobbler78 - he did say from the off it would be after each game, as he is working towards the final league table, and how the points are split with that final league table, and not how the table looks just before the final game kicks off.

after 46 games it is generally considered that the league table doesn't lie, so we should have more points against the teams in the bottom half. Whether they were easier games or not at the time we played them.

until that point though, when 46 games are played it is simply conjecture and 'fun'.

crack on.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 08, 2018, 14:59:49 pm
in the defence of cobbler78 - he did say from the off it would be after each game, as he is working towards the final league table, and how the points are split with that final league table, and not how the table looks just before the final game kicks off.

after 46 games it is generally considered that the league table doesn't lie, so we should have more points against the teams in the bottom half. Whether they were easier games or not at the time we played them.

until that point though, when 46 games are played it is simply conjecture and 'fun'.

crack on.


Iím already anticipating some genius telling you that your post is incorrect 😂😂😂😂


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on January 08, 2018, 15:22:57 pm
Iím already anticipating some genius telling you that your post is incorrect

It would actually be interesting to compare the two tables. As Threeinabed says, the league table doesn't lie after 46 games. Would be interesting to see at what point in the season teams generally become good/bad teams. Is it after the infamous '10 games'?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 08, 2018, 15:38:11 pm
It would actually be interesting to compare the two tables. As Threeinabed says, the league table doesn't lie after 46 games. Would be interesting to see at what point in the season teams generally become good/bad teams. Is it after the infamous '10 games'?

Two of the biggest movers in recent weeks have been Plymouth (up) and Southend (down) Iím still amazed Shrewsbury are hanging on in there. Letís hope we are another mover in the 2nd half of the season, after all, we are only a very good month away from being in the top half. That month could and should be February.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 08, 2018, 19:49:53 pm
Iím already anticipating some genius telling you that your post is incorrect 😂😂😂😂

Noone is saying anyone is incorrect in the statements they are making. The issue I have always had is that C78s theory means that his results change week on week. A prime example is when we played Blackpool they were 9th, so a harder game based on C78s rules. So surely that is 3pts gained from a harder game. But us beating them knocked them down to 13th, so subsequent calculations took away those points from a harder game and gave them to an easier game. Now Blackpool have moved into the top half again, its changed once more. Its this inconsistency that for me devalues the method used for calculation.

If you then also consider that to project these results, you need to know the final finishing positions which of course is impossible until after game 46 has been played. As I said earlier, I wouldn't even try to use any method to project our final finishing position other than perhaps using a straight points per game across all games. Trying to factor i whether its against a top or bottom half side is next to useless.

Anyway, you can pick holes in either method I guess. I think the thing that irks most people though is C78s cr@ppy attitude towards anyone who questions anything he says and always seems to want to duck any questions by answering a question with a question.

Healthy debate is always welcome, ignrance and outright rudeness isn't


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 08, 2018, 20:01:48 pm
Noone is saying anyone is incorrect in the statements they are making. The issue I have always had is that C78s theory means that his results change week on week. A prime example is when we played Blackpool they were 9th, so a harder game based on C78s rules. So surely that is 3pts gained from a harder game. But us beating them knocked them down to 13th, so subsequent calculations took away those points from a harder game and gave them to an easier game. Now Blackpool have moved into the top half again, its changed once more. Its this inconsistency that for me devalues the method used for calculation.

If you then also consider that to project these results, you need to know the final finishing positions which of course is impossible until after game 46 has been played. As I said earlier, I wouldn't even try to use any method to project our final finishing position other than perhaps using a straight points per game across all games. Trying to factor i whether its against a top or bottom half side is next to useless.

Anyway, you can pick holes in either method I guess. I think the thing that irks most people though is C78s cr@ppy attitude towards anyone who questions anything he says and always seems to want to duck any questions by answering a question with a question.

Healthy debate is always welcome, ignrance and outright rudeness isn't

To answer each of your points:

No need to have issues with my method mate, it has never changed and never will, facts are facts after all.

Regarding inconsistencies, the longer the season goes on, the more accurate the results and therefore so is the projection.

As for being rude, read the responses on page 1 and 2, if people are willing to hide behind their keyboard and dish it out, they should be big enough to take a bit back in return.

Finally, ironically enough, itís ďignoranceĒ


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on January 08, 2018, 20:56:46 pm
This has to be the dullest thread in the history The hotel End, I dozed off several times when it 1st started, I come back a year later and its still going .


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 08, 2018, 20:57:59 pm
Wow, even now you still duck the main question. You haven't answered anything at all. I tried to have some grace in my post but unless I've misunderstood the tone in your reply, it still seems you have an unerring need to take the high ground in everything you post, even to the point of pointing out I missed an 'o' out of a word I typed. That's not a misspelling, that's a typo.

I do have issues and am entitled to if I so wish. Tbh you still haven't answered any of the points raised, you just hide behind your so called facts even though those facts (crucially, how a game can be hard one week, yet easy after it was played, or vice versa) change from one week to the next.

So regardless of whether you feel it's right or wrong, there's your challenge... answer that one question from the previous paragraph without ducking or diving. Personally, I think you'll struggle but maybe if you can, you might regain some credibility.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 08, 2018, 21:09:20 pm
Wow, even now you still duck the main question. You haven't answered anything at all. I tried to have some grace in my post but unless I've misunderstood the tone in your reply, it still seems you have an unerring need to take the high ground in everything you post, even to the point of pointing out I missed an 'o' out of a word I typed. That's not a misspelling, that's a typo.

I do have issues and am entitled to if I so wish. Tbh you still haven't answered any of the points raised, you just hide behind your so called facts even though those facts (crucially, how a game can be hard one week, yet easy after it was played, or vice versa) change from one week to the next.

So regardless of whether you feel it's right or wrong, there's your challenge... answer that one question from the previous paragraph without ducking or diving. Personally, I think you'll struggle but maybe if you can, you might regain some credibility.



To answer your question. You are over complicating things. I am just pointing out the facts after a game, ie how many points gained Vs top half compared to the bottom half, nothing more nothing less. Not only is this obvious, but I have also explained this numerous times on this thread so didnít think Iíd need to explain it yet again. I assume this was the question, only I did donít see any question marks. Anyway, I hope this helps you.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on January 08, 2018, 21:58:24 pm

Incidentally, this took 30 mins to knock up using the website linked above. Pity, if you'd paid similar due diligence your views may have gotten the credibility you crave. Sadly, everyone bar none on this thread thinks you're just a stubborn sad loser.

Glad to be of service :)                  
Holy Moly, you spent 30 minutes on this in an effort to win the debate? Whilst I admire your tenacity Rambo and agree 78 appears quite stubborn, I canít help thinking you might be a little bit stubborn as well?

This thread appears to be an increasingly important factor in peopleís lives, including mine!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 08, 2018, 22:10:52 pm
This has to be the dullest thread in the history The hotel End, I dozed off several times when it 1st started, I come back a year later and its still going .

Luckily this interesting and entertaining post has really perked things up, well done you.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 08, 2018, 23:03:39 pm
To answer your question. You are over complicating things. I am just pointing out the facts after a game, ie how many points gained Vs top half compared to the bottom half, nothing more nothing less. Not only is this obvious, but I have also explained this numerous times on this thread so didnít think Iíd need to explain it yet again. I assume this was the question, only I did donít see any question marks. Anyway, I hope this helps you.


You actually think that picking up on what you understand to be grammatical or spelling errors makes you so intelligent that you don't need to answer the implied question. Read the second paragraph again, specifically the bit between the brackets. There's the question as you well know, you just choose to avoid answering it because you know that answering it means admitting the identified flaw. Or maybe my understanding of language, tone and context is just at a different level to yours where I don't need to see a question mark to understand there's a question in there. Incidentally, I could have put a question mark on the end of that last sentence but no need, I know the answer already. I've deliberately added a pompous element to that last bit, just so you can follow...

Anyway, saying that I am over complicating things is not an answer, just another dodge and once again you claim your statements to be fact. Well sorry, they're  not. Games don't get easier, or harder after they have been played, it's a physical impossibility. You know this too but are unable to admit it.

And finally, I strongly doubt there is any help you could offer that I might ever need. Nice of you to offer though.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 08, 2018, 23:09:40 pm
Rambo, the way you have done it is exactly what I have said in the past and queried the 'logic' on. Interesting to see how much difference it has made so far and how much it will by the end of the season.

Now can you do it based on the form table at the start of each game  ;)

Probably, using that site lol.

Not sure C78 could handle it though...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 08, 2018, 23:13:32 pm
Luckily this interesting and entertaining post has really perked things up, well done you.

Lucky you Grove, C78 never picked up on either of the grammatical errors in your comment.

Or maybe his standards are slipping....


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 08, 2018, 23:14:35 pm
Games don't get easier, or harder after they have been played, it's a physical impossibility.


Never said they did.

What is your question?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 09, 2018, 07:51:37 am
Never said they did.

What is your question?

Yes you did and yes you do. If you can't see how then you're thicker than you appear. You've had it explained to you using descriptions varying from the scientific to the monosyllabic.

Cling on to your theory by all means but at least be big enough to accept the flaws in it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on January 09, 2018, 08:39:54 am
I think if this thread had been called "more games to come against teams that are likely to end the season in the bottom half of the table" might have resulted in less comical debate.

then again, it is the HE, so probably not.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 09, 2018, 09:36:53 am
I think if this thread had been called "more games to come against teams that are likely to end the season in the bottom half of the table" might have resulted in less comical debate.

then again, it is the HE, so probably not.


That would still baffle Rambo and others. There is just no helping some people unfortunately.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 09, 2018, 10:27:05 am
That would still baffle Rambo and others. There is just no helping some people unfortunately.

It is you that cannot answer the most direct of questions.

It is you that is baffled by the concept that you cannot get reliable and consistent results if you rate a game as easy prior to kick off but then change its rating to harder a week or more later.

It is you that has had this explained to you every other page of this thread by many different people.

It is you that is so stubborn that you cannot and will not concede even an inch despite the overwhelming evidence and opinion presented.

It is you. Basically....


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 09, 2018, 10:37:09 am
It is you that cannot answer the most direct of questions.

It is you that is baffled by the concept that you cannot get reliable and consistent results if you rate a game as easy prior to kick off but then change its rating to harder a week or more later.

It is you that has had this explained to you every other page of this thread by many different people.

It is you that is so stubborn that you cannot and will not concede even an inch despite the overwhelming evidence and opinion presented.

It is you. Basically....

I have answered and explained this to you, as have others. You are still struggling because you are misunderstanding the point of this thread. The longer the season progresses, the more accurate the results and the projection, this is an undeniable fact.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on January 09, 2018, 11:01:02 am
It really is just you.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 12, 2018, 16:41:52 pm
Interesting Tweet from James Heneghan, enjoy this fact fans.

ďDid some number crunching. #ntfc have played 20 games against last year's top six and this year's current top six. They've won one and lost 16.Ē


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on January 12, 2018, 17:25:50 pm
Interesting Tweet from James Heneghan, enjoy this fact fans.

ďDid some number crunching. #ntfc have played 20 games against last year's top six and this year's current top six. They've won one and lost 16.Ē
Not very good is it.
What's your point? ;)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Joes Sweet Left Foot on January 12, 2018, 19:53:52 pm
I predict that come the end of the season the teams that have proved hardest to beat will finish in the top half of the table and the teams that have proved to be the easiest to beat will finish in the bottom half.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on January 12, 2018, 20:45:54 pm
I predict that come the end of the season the teams that have proved hardest to beat will finish in the top half of the table and the teams that have proved to be the easiest to beat will finish in the bottom half.
How intriguing, may I ask where will the teams that we find moderately easy to beat will finish?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Joes Sweet Left Foot on January 12, 2018, 20:47:15 pm
Why mid-table of course.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on January 12, 2018, 20:48:33 pm
Why mid-table of course.
Thank you, thatís crystal clear now.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on January 13, 2018, 17:14:51 pm
How does todays result rank in this pathetic thread


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Glastonbury Cobbler on January 13, 2018, 17:29:06 pm
How does todays result rank in this pathetic thread


Hahahaha


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on January 13, 2018, 17:42:25 pm
Why do people keep posting on here. We all know its rubbish..


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on January 13, 2018, 17:59:24 pm
Why do people keep posting on here.
If nobody bumps it, then the arrogant tosser will be left on his own..


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Buster on January 13, 2018, 18:05:10 pm
Why do people keep posting on here. We all know its rubbish..

Well, one of the reasons is to ask why people keep posting on here...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on January 13, 2018, 18:10:12 pm
If nobody bumps it, then the arrogant tosser will be left on his own..
If no one responds to him he'll get bored and give up.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: singcobb on January 14, 2018, 11:11:53 am
If no one responds to him he'll get bored and give up.

Don't bank on it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 14, 2018, 13:23:49 pm
If nobody bumps it, then the arrogant tosser will be left on his own..

And yet.....here you are commenting, thick as pig sh!t.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 14, 2018, 13:25:00 pm
If no one responds to him he'll get bored and give up.

And another absolute beauty right here 😂😂


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest2235 on January 14, 2018, 13:44:06 pm
You wonít catch me doing it  :)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 14, 2018, 13:54:32 pm
Here we go fact fans, the closer we get to the end of the season, the more accurate the projection. Importantly we have played 4 more harder games (top half) than Easier games (bottom half) so bucket loads of points to come in the coming weeks.

Vs top half 13 points in 16 games, 0.81 points per game (projection 19.50)
Vs bottom half 16 points in 12 games, 1.33 points per game (projection 29.33)
Total projection 48.83

Again, I repeat, we have Easier games to come.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 14, 2018, 16:53:19 pm
Noone
Is
Interested


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 14, 2018, 17:55:05 pm
Noone
Is
Interested

Hereís another one 👆🏼🙄

Very good post mate, well done.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on January 14, 2018, 18:34:30 pm
Here we go fact fans, the closer we get to the end of the season, the more accurate the projection.
;D
 
Did you only just realise this, and are you going to continue with your 'predictions' right up to the eve of game 46?



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 14, 2018, 19:02:43 pm
;D
 
Did you only just realise this, and are you going to continue with your 'predictions' right up to the eve of game 46?



A) Iíve always known this, itís obvious, read this thread and youíll see those struggling to grasp this.
B) Yes, Iíll do it all season, hopefully the slower member of this board will then understand and apologise, all ready for next season.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on January 14, 2018, 19:06:57 pm
Noone
Is
Interested

(https://2r62j11x4zsy3ytak02nzvbk24y-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/el-enrique-octavo-de-hermans-her.jpg)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: TownOwl on January 14, 2018, 20:36:38 pm
I love this thread. 💖❤

Here's a stat, if we win the next 8 games, we're safe by 3rd March. But by then we'll be targetting the playoffs.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest2235 on January 14, 2018, 20:40:10 pm
(https://2r62j11x4zsy3ytak02nzvbk24y-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/el-enrique-octavo-de-hermans-her.jpg)
Something tells me... this was for the older members


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on January 14, 2018, 22:10:33 pm
Something tells me... this was for the older members
It was, Iíve actually wet myself. Not sure if it was the post or my incontinence?


Title: "
Post by: WasRambo on January 15, 2018, 08:53:04 am
I retract my statement. People are interested but only from the perspective of how someone can make a complete tit of themselves.

Over the last month or so the "projections" have gone from 68 pts, to 44, to 31 to 48. Points against "Top" teams have ranged from zero to 20 odd.

And yet still the author cannot see how valueless these are.

Well, keep going C78. You've got 18 more goes left to guess the right points total. Although don't tell me, your guess will get more accurate at the season goes on. No $hit batman


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on January 15, 2018, 09:12:18 am
A) Iíve always known this, itís obvious, read this thread and youíll see those struggling to grasp this.
B) Yes, Iíll do it all season, hopefully the slower member of this board will then understand and apologise, all ready for next season.
a) Oh you do think it's obvious? So I don't need to explain the jigsaw analogy then.
b)Good. I like to see a child finish a task.
 


Title: Re: "
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 15, 2018, 10:50:06 am
I retract my statement. People are interested but only from the perspective of how someone can make a complete tit of themselves.

Over the last month or so the "projections" have gone from 68 pts, to 44, to 31 to 48. Points against "Top" teams have ranged from zero to 20 odd.

And yet still the author cannot see how valueless these are.

Well, keep going C78. You've got 18 more goes left to guess the right points total. Although don't tell me, your guess will get more accurate at the season goes on. No $hit batman

I think finally the penny has dropped, well done on catching up. You still need to learn the difference between a projection a prediction and a guess though, but this is probably a little above your limitations.


Title: Re: "
Post by: cj on January 15, 2018, 11:23:39 am
I think finally the penny has dropped, well done on catching up. You still need to learn the difference between a projection a prediction and a guess though, but this is probably a little above your limitations.
;D

Projection.
Synonyms 'estimate, forecast, PREDICTION, calculation...'

Do you know what a synonym is C78?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on January 15, 2018, 11:29:46 am
I predict that it will be warmer in summer than it will be in winter. There will be odd occasions that summer days are colder than winter days and vice versa but at the end of the year the average winter temperature will be colder than summer


Title: Re: "
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 15, 2018, 11:30:40 am
;D

Projection.
Synonyms 'estimate, forecast, PREDICTION, calculation...'

Do you know what a synonym is C78?

Excellent, hopefully now youíve looked this up you will understand going forward.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 15, 2018, 11:31:17 am
I predict that it will be warmer in summer than it will be in winter. There will be odd occasions that summer days are colder than winter days and vice versa but at the end of the year the average winter temperature will be colder than summer

Bingo 👍🏻


Title: Re: "
Post by: WasRambo on January 15, 2018, 11:37:02 am
I think finally the penny has dropped, well done on catching up. You still need to learn the difference between a projection a prediction and a guess though, but this is probably a little above your limitations.

Whatever my limitations, they're certainly not where you suggest. I have fully understood your process right from the start - I've merely challenged it's limitations, flaws and lack of overall value and tbf have never really received any proper response to the questions I've asked. I'm not sure whether this is down to lack of will or ability. Ultimately it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things, so time to just let go I think.

Personally, I don't have the need to feel superior in the same way as you do but if I did, I'd take comfort from the FACT that an overwhelming majority of posters have similar issues, not just with your theory (which to be honest has become a bit of a side issue) but with your "I'm better / more clever than you" attitude which is really off tack considering if a straw poll was taken, opinion would probably place the intelligence presented in your posts well in the bottom segment of the lower quartile.

Anyway, the only real conclusion I've drawn from this thread is that you're not really the type of person I'd wish to spend any time with. I admit I possess some of your stubbornness (I must do to keep posting) but I hope without without your air of superiority. I'd like to think that an intelligent and reasoned debater could and would sway me. Sadly, you are not that person. You never offer any real debate - just your superior air.

Of course, you could just be one of those people that likes to try and wind other people up which if true is very sad.

There really is no more that I can say, or need to say to you. Good luck with your guesswork.


Title: Re: "
Post by: cj on January 15, 2018, 11:45:19 am
Excellent, hopefully now youíve looked this up you will understand going forward.
;D
Let me try and make this even clearer for you.

Your projections are based around your higher/lower 'system'.
Average points against top twelve, average points against lower twelve, ergo you reach your projection.
So when you then conclude that because we have lots of games against easier teams and that therefore we'll pick up bucket loads more points, you are dismissing your own projection as worthless.
Fool.


Title: Re: "
Post by: Monkey on January 15, 2018, 11:57:56 am
Whatever my limitations, they're certainly not where you suggest. I have fully understood your process right from the start - I've merely challenged it's limitations, flaws and lack of overall value and tbf have never really received any proper response to the questions I've asked. I'm not sure whether this is down to lack of will or ability. Ultimately it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things, so time to just let go I think.

Personally, I don't have the need to feel superior in the same way as you do but if I did, I'd take comfort from the FACT that an overwhelming majority of posters have similar issues, not just with your theory (which to be honest has become a bit of a side issue) but with your "I'm better / more clever than you" attitude which is really off tack considering if a straw poll was taken, opinion would probably place the intelligence presented in your posts well in the bottom segment of the lower quartile.

Anyway, the only real conclusion I've drawn from this thread is that you're not really the type of person I'd wish to spend any time with. I admit I possess some of your stubbornness (I must do to keep posting) but I hope without without your air of superiority. I'd like to think that an intelligent and reasoned debater could and would sway me. Sadly, you are not that person. You never offer any real debate - just your superior air.

Of course, you could just be one of those people that likes to try and wind other people up which if true is very sad.

There really is no more that I can say, or need to say to you. Good luck with your guesswork.

#teamrambo


Title: Re: "
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 15, 2018, 12:10:59 pm
;D
Let me try and make this even clearer for you.

Your projections are based around your higher/lower 'system'.
Average points against top twelve, average points against lower twelve, ergo you reach your projection.
So when you then conclude that because we have lots of games against easier teams and that therefore we'll pick up bucket loads more points, you are dismissing your own projection as worthless.
Fool.

Correct.

The Projection is 48 points
My prediction is 55 points (pre season was 60pts)


Title: Re: "
Post by: unicobbler on January 15, 2018, 12:38:19 pm

Of course, you could just be one of those people that likes to try and wind other people up which if true is very sad.

I'm fairly sure this is a season long fishing trip and unfortunately I bit a few times.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: southofthecounty on January 15, 2018, 12:58:01 pm
Is Cobbler78 Marvo? I remember Marvo?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 15, 2018, 13:01:35 pm
Is Cobbler78 Marvo? I remember Marvo?

Nope.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 15, 2018, 13:17:40 pm
Marvo was a stubborn sod and we crossed swords a few times but I wouldn't put him in C78's category.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 15, 2018, 13:18:39 pm
Marvo was a stubborn sod and we crossed swords a few times but I wouldn't put him in C78's category.

Thankyou and youíre welcome.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: southofthecounty on January 15, 2018, 13:40:27 pm
Thankyou and youíre welcome.
Are you 100% sure that was a compliment?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 15, 2018, 14:25:14 pm
Are you 100% sure that was a compliment?

It wasn't but he's so smug / up his own ar$e / on a wind up.... that is a stock response


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 15, 2018, 14:29:04 pm
It wasn't but he's so smug / up his own ar$e / on a wind up.... that is a stock response

Itís definitely one of those options.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: DrillingCobbler on January 15, 2018, 15:05:45 pm
I always think recent form and circumstances is a better way to judge whether or not a haul of points is coming your way.

Bradfords a fine example. They'd just been dumped out of the FA Cup by a sh1t league2 club, had lost 6 of their 13 home games this season (despite being in 5th position) and were missing their key player. And by key, were talking 'Bayo' for us a few years back. Or John Joe now. It was definitely a good time to play them!

Southend the week before were crashing down the league. Again, excellent time to play them.

I appreciate that bookmakers rarely factor these variants in at our level (we were long shots to win on Saturday), so I can't vouch for it being a better 'system' but when your looking for value quite often recent form and circumstances (injuries, suspensions, fatigue if a team has had a number of games in a short period etc) are a better indication than pure league position.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 15, 2018, 17:57:41 pm
I always think recent form and circumstances is a better way to judge whether or not a haul of points is coming your way.

Bradfords a fine example. They'd just been dumped out of the FA Cup by a sh1t league2 club, had lost 6 of their 13 home games this season (despite being in 5th position) and were missing their key player. And by key, were talking 'Bayo' for us a few years back. Or John Joe now. It was definitely a good time to play them!

Southend the week before were crashing down the league. Again, excellent time to play them.

I appreciate that bookmakers rarely factor these variants in at our level (we were long shots to win on Saturday), so I can't vouch for it being a better 'system' but when your looking for value quite often recent form and circumstances (injuries, suspensions, fatigue if a team has had a number of games in a short period etc) are a better indication than pure league position.



Bookies do take these factors into account and whilst bets placed is the ultimate mover of prices, they're not averse to trimming a few fractions if they cotton on to some team news.

There's money involved so you can be sure they're using the most sophisticated algorithms there are. Put it this way, if C78 went for a job with Billy Hills and had to present his method, he wouldn't be getting a 2nd interview...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 15, 2018, 20:24:39 pm
Bookies do take these factors into account and whilst bets placed is the ultimate mover of prices, they're not averse to trimming a few fractions if they cotton on to some team news.

There's money involved so you can be sure they're using the most sophisticated algorithms there are. Put it this way, if C78 went for a job with Billy Hills and had to present his method, he wouldn't be getting a 2nd interview...

Which is strange, as Iíve been correct historically, am correct currently and will be correct at the end of the season. Must be annoying for you.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 16, 2018, 08:12:31 am
Which is strange, as Iíve been correct historically, am correct currently and will be correct at the end of the season. Must be annoying for you.

Haha. You have a lofty opinion of yourself.

Anyway, now you've admitted that this has just been a 38 page wind up the thread may as well be locked.

Just my opinion mind


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 09:27:49 am
Haha. You have a lofty opinion of yourself.

Anyway, now you've admitted that this has just been a 38 page wind up the thread may as well be locked.

Just my opinion mind

Where did I admit that? Have you misunderstood something else?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on January 16, 2018, 09:33:36 am
He has admitted its stating the obvious and claiming superiority for doing so


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 09:41:53 am
He has admitted its stating the obvious and claiming superiority for doing so


Correct.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 16, 2018, 13:15:02 pm
Itís definitely one of those options.

Assuming that you're not admitting to being smug or up your own ar$e, then you're just on a wind up.

Actually, who cares, you'll just give the most argumentative / provocative answer you can...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 13:18:22 pm
Assuming that you're not admitting to being smug or up your own ar$e, then you're just on a wind up.

Actually, who cares, you'll just give the most argumentative / provocative answer you can...

You know what they say about assuming donít you? Actually, maybe I shouldnít assume that you do.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 16, 2018, 13:24:13 pm
You know what they say about assuming donít you? Actually, maybe I shouldnít assume that you do.

Point proved.

If you're trying to make me lose my temper, or call you names, or such like - you, like your theories are an abject failure.

Seriously, you should try attempting to make a few friends rather than doing your utmost to be an (albeit minor) irritant.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 13:44:46 pm
Point proved.

If you're trying to make me lose my temper, or call you names, or such like - you, like your theories are an abject failure.

Seriously, you should try attempting to make a few friends rather than doing your utmost to be an (albeit minor) irritant.

*point proven


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on January 16, 2018, 14:30:56 pm
*point proven
;D I'm actually starting to like Cobbler78. He's like that cheeky stupid kid at school who's always really cocky to the teacher. Everyone laughs (at him) then he's sent to the headteachers office and you can get back on with your day


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on January 16, 2018, 14:40:27 pm
Yeah and then you look back when you're in your mid twenties and think what an idiot I was. (For the record, not me) Imagine being born in 1978 and STILL doing it haha.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 16, 2018, 15:03:33 pm
;D I'm actually starting to like Cobbler78. He's like that cheeky stupid kid at school who's always really cocky to the teacher. Everyone laughs (at him) then he's sent to the headteachers office and you can get back on with your day

Oh I could like him too. If there was any semblance of humour in what he posts.

There isn't any though. so it's just irritating instead. If he is 40 or approaching, then it's probably more like any early midlife crisis induced "look at me and how clever I am (not)"

Incidentally - Proved or Proven. Both are forms of the verb prove: ďto demonstrate or establish as true.Ē The form proven is an irregular past participle form. One can say either, He has proved his theory, or He has proven his theory.

Thanks Google - thought I'd quote it rather than banging my head against a wall trying to convince him that he's not as clever as he makes out


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 15:12:29 pm
Oh I could like him too. If there was any semblance of humour in what he posts.

There isn't any though. so it's just irritating instead. If he is 40 or approaching, then it's probably more like any early midlife crisis induced "look at me and how clever I am (not)"

Incidentally - Proved or Proven. Both are forms of the verb prove: ďto demonstrate or establish as true.Ē The form proven is an irregular past participle form. One can say either, He has proved his theory, or He has proven his theory.

Thanks Google - thought I'd quote it rather than banging my head against a wall trying to convince him that he's not as clever as he makes out

You triple checked this for spelling mistakes didnít you? Admit it 😂

You can use proved instead of proven if you like. My point is Iím not saying you are thick, but using proved goes along way to proving my assumption (but we both know we shouldnít assume, donít we?).

Anyway enough of this, itís not fair. Back on topic, anyone else think that with easier games to come and an improving squad we might just finish top half?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: unicobbler on January 16, 2018, 15:13:38 pm
Oh I could like him too. If there was any semblance of humour in what he posts.
I don't think it is written with humour, but after my initial frustrations, it is now read with humour!



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 15:14:17 pm
I don't think it is written with humour, but after my initial frustrations, it is now read with humour!



💋


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on January 16, 2018, 15:21:55 pm
You can use proved instead of proven if you like. My point is Iím not saying you are thick, but using proved goes along way to proving my assumption (but we both know we shouldnít assume, donít we?).

a long*



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 16, 2018, 15:24:13 pm
a long*



Sweet ;)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 15:25:06 pm
a long*



Sh!t , Iíve been dragged down to theiríre level 😂😂😂


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 15:26:08 pm
Sweet ;)

You missed it Rambo, didnít you?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 16, 2018, 15:30:45 pm
You missed it Rambo, didnít you?

I don't even feel the need to look to be honest. Attempting to score points from people for irregular spelling and grammar on what is essentially a terrace banter forum is not really my bag.

Each to their own though I guess....


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 15:38:29 pm
I don't even feel the need to look to be honest. Attempting to score points from people for irregular spelling and grammar on what is essentially a terrace banter forum is not really my bag.

Each to their own though I guess....

Think of it as education rather than point scoring, youíll thank me in the long run.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 16, 2018, 15:58:15 pm
Think of it as education rather than point scoring, youíll thank me in the long run.

I think we can add the need to have the last word to your ever growing list of personality flaws...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 16:00:17 pm
I think we can add the need to have the last word to your ever growing list of personality flaws...

Not true.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Terryfenwickatemyhamster on January 16, 2018, 19:47:46 pm
Think of it as education rather than point scoring, youíll thank me in the long run.

Think of it as a thread that will be locked if some you don't keep it relevant to the Cobblers.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Monkey on January 16, 2018, 19:55:03 pm
Think of it as a thread that will be locked if some you don't keep it relevant to the Cobblers.



Let's all talk about unrelated things some more to get this thing shut down.
Who's everyone's favourite original member of One Direction?

I put "original" in there so I could pick Zayn.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: singcobb on January 16, 2018, 20:15:49 pm
Think of it as a thread that will be locked if some you don't keep it relevant to the Cobblers.



No!! I'm enjoying this, especially compared to the continual drivel Beds turns out.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on January 16, 2018, 20:22:01 pm
Shame about Carillion, I did love 'kayleigh' what a song that was, started going wrong when fish left


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BackOfTheNet on January 16, 2018, 20:22:34 pm
Let's all talk about unrelated things some more to get this thing shut down.
Who's everyone's favourite original member of One Direction?

I put "original" in there so I could pick Zayn.

Personally, I'm not a big One Direction fan but I did think Harry Stiles was surprisingly good in Dunkirk.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 20:25:42 pm
This will flag up the people who realise theyíve lost the arguement.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on January 16, 2018, 20:37:25 pm
This will flag up the people who realise theyíve lost the arguement.
Like you, but I do have one question. Was Bradford an easier game?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 20:43:03 pm
Like you, but I do have one question. Was Bradford an easier game?

Harder game, one of the hardest of the season Iíd say.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on January 16, 2018, 21:13:49 pm
Donít get it chaps, if you donít like the thread donít read it. If you donít like C78 or if he is annoying you donít interact with him? Mums right, I did eventually turn into me dad!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 21:21:04 pm
Donít get it chaps, if you donít like the thread donít read it. If you donít like C78 or if he is annoying you donít interact with him? Mums right, I did eventually turn into me dad!

Exactly, itís very simple isnít it, yet even this is still too complicated for some to understand.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Terryfenwickatemyhamster on January 16, 2018, 21:36:10 pm
Donít get it chaps, if you donít like the thread donít read it.

That is a concept wasted on most. I'm more than happy with it in this section if it stays about the Cobblers. Unfortunately it was/is becoming about comparing c*cks. Albeit micro c*cks.  ;D :P



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 21:40:23 pm
That is a concept wasted on most. I'm more than happy with it in this section if it stays about the Cobblers. Unfortunately it was/is becoming about comparing c*cks. Albeit micro c*cks.  ;D :P



Or even harder c0cks


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on January 16, 2018, 21:50:59 pm
That is a concept wasted on most. I'm more than happy with it in this section if it stays about the Cobblers. Unfortunately it was/is becoming about comparing c*cks. Albeit micro c*cks.  ;D :P


Hope not, Iíd lose that argument as well!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: singcobb on January 16, 2018, 21:51:37 pm
Or even harder c0cks

You mean harder cůcks to come?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: tcobb on January 16, 2018, 22:43:19 pm
Just applied this theory to Bury. Bottom of the League with 17 points, 6 points from teams in the bottom (easier) half of the table, 11 points from teams in the top ( harder) half of the table.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 16, 2018, 23:22:50 pm
Just applied this theory to Bury. Bottom of the League with 17 points, 6 points from teams in the bottom (easier) half of the table, 11 points from teams in the top ( harder) half of the table.

Interesting. Can you do it for all of the teams or is this the only one that bucks the trend.........so far.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: tcobb on January 16, 2018, 23:36:44 pm
Just thought I would start with Bury at the bottom. If time might work up the League.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 20, 2018, 18:21:51 pm
So, todayís result vs MK Dons, never in doubt was it? Stats to follow fact fans.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 20, 2018, 19:05:13 pm
Vs top. Played 16, 16pts, points per game 1, projection 24
Vs bottom. Played 13, 16pts, points per game 1.231, projection 27
Total projection 51

Of course, this is if we finish bottom half.....

I think my 12th place and 60pts prediction could still be hit.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 28, 2018, 10:31:42 am
Great point yesterday in one of the hardest games of the season.

Updated stats
Vs top Played 16, 14pts, 0.875ppg, projection 21pts
Vs bottom Played 14, 19pts, 1.357ppg, projection 30pts
Total projection 51pts

February should bring a bucket load of points, I expect us to be comfortably mid table come the start of March.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 29, 2018, 08:17:19 am
This will flag up the people who realise theyíve lost the arguement.

Argument....

Just about sums you up.

So, another question around your theory...

Given there are 24 teams in the division each half consists of 12 teams (simple maths even you can follow...) I believe you base your projection on 23 times each of your points per game (calculation of which already proven to be flawed).

You do realise that we will occupy one of the 24 spots and therefore take up one of the 12 spots from one half. Therefore that is the first reason you can't just multiply by 23 and expect a decent projection.

Secondly, 23 is an odd number so stands to reason it's not usable as a factor in any calculation as if you factor it would mean you've played a team that is in both halves of the table.

And finally, for the umpteenth time, to do any of this you need to know which half of the table we will finish in to be able to even start getting a decent projection.

I know all of this will exceed the capacity of your tiny brain And even if it didn't, your limitless ego would not allow you to admit but if you really want talk about losing an argument, as Michael Jackson said, start with the man in the mirror.

Take a look at yourself
Make the change


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on January 29, 2018, 08:29:39 am
Argument....

Just about sums you up.

So, another question around your theory...

Given there are 24 teams in the division each half consists of 12 teams (simple maths even you can follow...) I believe you base your projection on 23 times each of your points per game (calculation of which already proven to be flawed).

You do realise that we will occupy one of the 24 spots and therefore take up one of the 12 spots from one half. Therefore that is the first reason you can't just multiply by 23 and expect a decent projection.


Once again, i will defend 78 on this - he doesn't do this. Never has done. He has explained his theory and how it works and has stuck to it. There are flaws, he has admitted as much, but we all know what his theory is based on, he hasn't moved from this. You don't have to agree with it, most don't, but he hasn't moved his goalposts from the start until now.
From what i gather, he is basing it on us finishing in the bottom half (as we are currently in the bottom half) and so we play 24 against the top half and 22 against the bottom half.
that hasn't changed.
The next 2 games form wise are 2 of the harder games, but this isn't based on form, so will still be easier games based on this statistical model.
Even i can't understand why people are still arguing with him over this.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: southofthecounty on January 29, 2018, 08:39:01 am
Perhaps someone can explain this to me. Our team, and probably others, is composed of more than half new players. How do you allow for that?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on January 29, 2018, 08:51:09 am
Perhaps someone can explain this to me. Our team, and probably others, is composed of more than half new players. How do you allow for that?

Read the post above yours. It is based purely on league positions.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 29, 2018, 08:59:57 am
Once again, i will defend 78 on this - he doesn't do this. Never has done. He has explained his theory and how it works and has stuck to it. There are flaws, he has admitted as much, but we all know what his theory is based on, he hasn't moved from this. You don't have to agree with it, most don't, but he hasn't moved his goalposts from the start until now.
From what i gather, he is basing it on us finishing in the bottom half (as we are currently in the bottom half) and so we play 24 against the top half and 22 against the bottom half.
that hasn't changed.
The next 2 games form wise are 2 of the harder games, but this isn't based on form, so will still be easier games based on this statistical model.
Even i can't understand why people are still arguing with him over this.



I think you assume too much. Pretty sure he uses a simple 23x not 24/22. I could be wrong but if you break his maths down the projections divide by 23.

And to be fair, his goalposts move every week as teams switch between top and bottom halves.

In any case, it should be fairly clear by now that the theory is not the issue. The issue is his attitude, how he believes he's giving everyone an "education" even though it's an education we already received at primary school


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on January 29, 2018, 09:26:07 am
I think you assume too much. Pretty sure he uses a simple 23x not 24/22. I could be wrong but if you break his maths down the projections divide by 23.


he doesn't.
i think you need to check how you do simple sums.
.875 x 24 = 21
1.357 x 22 = 30


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Boot and shoe on January 29, 2018, 09:40:58 am
The next three fixtures we have against teams towards the bottom may be extremely tough because we are expected to create chances and win against sides that are in good form .
It will be another type of test after doing well in recent weeks .


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 29, 2018, 09:46:13 am
he doesn't.
i think you need to check how you do simple sums.
.875 x 24 = 21
1.357 x 22 = 30


Fair comment, I can see that now. Maybe coincidence but they both work out the same

0.87500 x   24.00000 =   21.00000
1.35700 x   22.00000 =   29.85400
      
0.87500 x   23.00000 =   20.12500
1.35700 x   23.00000 =   31.21100

Either way, both are flawed. You don't know where we will finish so using 24 / 22 cannot be accurate until final game and I explained previously why 23 / 23 can't be used.

You're backing the wrong horse...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 29, 2018, 09:48:32 am
The next three fixtures we have against teams towards the bottom may be extremely tough because we are expected to create chances and win against sides that are in good form .
It will be another type of test after doing well in recent weeks .

Exactly this. Top half / bottom half is is no way a reliable indicator of the probability of a result.

Take Bradford, quoted by C78 as being "one of the toughest of the season". Beaten by us and stuffed 4 nowt by a Wimbledon side who'd only scored 9 goals away all season!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on January 29, 2018, 10:06:04 am
Exactly this. Top half / bottom half is is no way a reliable indicator of the probability of a result.

Take Bradford, quoted by C78 as being "one of the toughest of the season". Beaten by us and stuffed 4 nowt by a Wimbledon side who'd only scored 9 goals away all season!

it probably isn't - but currently using this system it is.

i hate defending him as well - this is ruining my morning!!!!!  ;D



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: memyhead on January 29, 2018, 10:48:28 am
There are no easier games to come imo

L1 is the toughest it has been for many a season & after our awful start we still have it all to do to stay up...if we continue improving though we've got a decent chance.

Saturday is massive as I think Rochdale are in a false position & will improve as the season progresses....

Hopefully, Wigan can beat them tomorrow....


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on January 29, 2018, 10:53:32 am
There are no easier games to come imo

No easier games than Blackburn away? Mental.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Irchy cob on January 29, 2018, 11:02:15 am
There are no easier games to come imo

L1 is the toughest it has been for many a season & after our awful start we still have it all to do to stay up...if we continue improving though we've got a decent chance.

Saturday is massive as I think Rochdale are in a false position & will improve as the season progresses....

Hopefully, Wigan can beat them tomorrow....

Exactly - I hate the term but Saturdayís match is a real 6 pointer.  They havenít won away all season which is what worries me especially with our past record against teams going through similar runs. It sounds like they played well on Saturday against Millwall and were unlucky not to win, as the previous poster says hopefully Wigan will beat them tomorrow and that will be one of their games in hand out of the way.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on January 29, 2018, 13:07:40 pm
Exactly - I hate the term but Saturday’s match is a real 6 pointer.  They haven’t won away all season which is what worries me especially with our past record against teams going through similar runs. It sounds like they played well on Saturday against Millwall and were unlucky not to win, as the previous poster says hopefully Wigan will beat them tomorrow and that will be one of their games in hand out of the way.

Postponed, waterlogged pitch...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 29, 2018, 13:15:06 pm
Argument....

Just about sums you up.

So, another question around your theory...

Given there are 24 teams in the division each half consists of 12 teams (simple maths even you can follow...) I believe you base your projection on 23 times each of your points per game (calculation of which already proven to be flawed).

You do realise that we will occupy one of the 24 spots and therefore take up one of the 12 spots from one half. Therefore that is the first reason you can't just multiply by 23 and expect a decent projection.

Secondly, 23 is an odd number so stands to reason it's not usable as a factor in any calculation as if you factor it would mean you've played a team that is in both halves of the table.

And finally, for the umpteenth time, to do any of this you need to know which half of the table we will finish in to be able to even start getting a decent projection.

I know all of this will exceed the capacity of your tiny brain And even if it didn't, your limitless ego would not allow you to admit but if you really want talk about losing an argument, as Michael Jackson said, start with the man in the mirror.

Take a look at yourself
Make the change

Rambo, youíve assumed again havenít you. I thought Iíd taught you about this?

Try doing the Maths and see how itís calculated.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 29, 2018, 13:16:37 pm
I think you assume too much. Pretty sure he uses a simple 23x not 24/22. I could be wrong but if you break his maths down the projections divide by 23.

And to be fair, his goalposts move every week as teams switch between top and bottom halves.

In any case, it should be fairly clear by now that the theory is not the issue. The issue is his attitude, how he believes he's giving everyone an "education" even though it's an education we already received at primary school

Rambo, mate, stop it. Youíre coming across really thick!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Irchy cob on January 29, 2018, 14:43:01 pm
Postponed, waterlogged pitch...

Just noticed that, I wonder how hard they tried to get the match on with Wigan in such good form and the transfer window closing the next day!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Joes Sweet Left Foot on January 29, 2018, 19:28:17 pm
Of our next 3 games, Rochdale (H), Wimbledon (A) and Gillingham (H), the latter two are in the top half of the form table (last 6 games) and therefore should be considered harder games just now.

Gillingham are now 10th. What a difference a couple of weeks can make, if only we had played them when they were easy meat.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on January 29, 2018, 19:31:58 pm
Gillingham are now 10th. What a difference a couple of weeks can make, if only we had played them when they were easy meat.

They could well be in three games time.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 29, 2018, 20:13:40 pm
Of our next 3 games, Rochdale (H), Wimbledon (A) and Gillingham (H), the latter two are in the top half of the form table (last 6 games) and therefore should be considered harder games just now.

Gillingham are now 10th. What a difference a couple of weeks can make, if only we had played them when they were easy meat.

Should be, however, we could easily get 9 points from these 3 games, Iíd be happy with 5 as a minimum though.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Joes Sweet Left Foot on January 29, 2018, 20:29:44 pm
If you consider that perhaps only the top 8 teams can be considered difficult opponents and the rest are pretty much on a par, then perhaps the following table displays the true sentiment of Cobbler78 theory and does show a correlation between league position and points haul.

 
Opponent Home Away
Wigan L L
Shrewsbury L
Blackburn  D D
Sc***horpe  L  
Bradford L W
Rotherham L
Charlton
Peterborough L
 
Portsmouth    W L
Gillingham            W
Bristol Rovers 
Oxford                    W
Plymouth               L
Doncaster        W L
Fleetwood          
Wimbledon      L    
Southend        W D
Walsall           W   
Blackpool        W   
MK Dons          W    D
Oldham                L
Rochdale          D
Bury                  D      

Of the 11 games against the top 8 opponents we have gained just 5 pts , averaging just under half a point a game.
Of the 19 games against the rest we have secured 28 pts at just over 1.5 pts a game.

Now no one can confidently predict what the final places will be, but it is just possible that the top 8 will finish top 8 although I suspect Portsmouth might leapfrog the posh and Bradford appear to be in freefall.

Using the same calculation basis of points per game for the remaining matches (5 games against the top sides yielding another 2/3 pts, and 11 games against the rest yielding 16/17 pts), then the final tally could be anywhere between 51 and 53 pts. 

But hey its only a guess.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 29, 2018, 20:46:07 pm
If you consider that perhaps only the top 8 teams can be considered difficult opponents and the rest are pretty much on a par, then perhaps the following table displays the true sentiment of Cobbler78 theory and does show a correlation between league position and points haul.

 
Opponent Home Away
Wigan L L
Shrewsbury L
Blackburn  D D
Sc***horpe  L  
Bradford L W
Rotherham L
Charlton
Peterborough L
 
Portsmouth    W L
Gillingham            W
Bristol Rovers 
Oxford                    W
Plymouth               L
Doncaster        W L
Fleetwood          
Wimbledon      L    
Southend        W D
Walsall           W   
Blackpool        W   
MK Dons          W    D
Oldham                L
Rochdale          D
Bury                  D      

Of the 11 games against the top 8 opponents we have gained just 5 pts , averaging just under half a point a game.
Of the 19 games against the rest we have secured 28 pts at just over 1.5 pts a game.

Now no one can confidently predict what the final places will be, but it is just possible that the top 8 will finish top 8 although I suspect Portsmouth might leapfrog the posh and Bradford appear to be in freefall.

Using the same calculation basis of points per game for the remaining matches (5 games against the top sides yielding another 2/3 pts, and 11 games against the rest yielding 16/17 pts), then the final tally could be anywhere between 51 and 53 pts. 

But hey its only a guess.


Whoíd have thought it?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on January 30, 2018, 08:33:34 am
So our three away wins this season have come against the top half of the table, no away wins against the easier half of the league. Thank god the easier games to come is so straightforward.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 30, 2018, 08:51:39 am
C78, I'm not going to rise to your baiting as I know I'm not thick. It's quite ironic you make such a statement given nothing you are saying suggests any great intelligence or insight. You're just needy and crave attention, whether it be positive or negative and you don't seem to care how rude you are in pursuit of it.

Any value this thread ever had (such as it was) is now lost among your over-inflated ego.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 30, 2018, 11:20:17 am
C78, I'm not going to rise to your baiting as I know I'm not thick. It's quite ironic you make such a statement given nothing you are saying suggests any great intelligence or insight. You're just needy and crave attention, whether it be positive or negative and you don't seem to care how rude you are in pursuit of it.

Any value this thread ever had (such as it was) is now lost among your over-inflated ego.

Iím not saying you are thick, Iím saying your posts and comments make you sound thick.

You do make one valid point though. This really is a very simple and logical theory, however, look at all of the posters who fail to grasp common sense.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Saint Cobbler on January 30, 2018, 11:30:07 am


Gillingham are now 10th. What a difference a couple of weeks can make, if only we had played them when they were easy meat.
We did


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on January 30, 2018, 11:55:08 am
Iím not saying you are thick, Iím saying your posts and comments make you sound thick.

You do make one valid point though. This really is a very simple and logical theory, however, look at all of the posters who fail to grasp common sense.

Finally, Im glad you said its too simple. Thats the problem!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 30, 2018, 12:51:47 pm
Finally, Im glad you said its too simple. Thats the problem!

Itís accurate though. I didnít say it was too simple, however, maybe itís the people who are too simple.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 30, 2018, 19:28:37 pm
We did

Nope. Gillingham are now a hard game. Even though they were easy when we played them. We've now magically gained 3 "hard" points from a game that was originally declared "easy"

And I'm the thick one around here apparently ::)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 31, 2018, 10:29:10 am

And I'm the thick one around here apparently ::)

Hard to disagree with this.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: eddieeddie on January 31, 2018, 10:39:04 am
Signs and symptoms of narcissistic personality disorder


- Grandiose sense of self-importance. ...
- Lives in a fantasy world that supports their delusions of grandeur. ...
- Needs constant praise and admiration. ...
- Sense of entitlement. ...
- Exploits others without guilt or shame. ...
- Frequently demeans, intimidates, bullies, or belittles others.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on January 31, 2018, 10:55:30 am
Signs and symptoms of narcissistic personality disorder


- Grandiose sense of self-importance. ...
- Lives in a fantasy world that supports their delusions of grandeur. ...
- Needs constant praise and admiration. ...
- Sense of entitlement. ...
- Exploits others without guilt or shame. ...
- Frequently demeans, intimidates, bullies, or belittles others.

Leave Feely out of this!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on January 31, 2018, 11:29:51 am
Nope. Gillingham are now a hard game. Even though they were easy when we played them. We've now magically gained 3 "hard" points from a game that was originally declared "easy"

And I'm the thick one around here apparently ::)

Of course, it is updated as the league table becomes more true. The final league table is the only table that counts/doesn't lie.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 31, 2018, 11:57:40 am
Of course, it is updated as the league table becomes more true. The final league table is the only table that counts/doesn't lie.

Still missing the point that a game can't change from being hard to easy or vice versa after it has been played. The whole premise of C78's theory is that we'll get more points against bottom half teams than we will against top ones (which is a fairly safe assumption - and yes, he is making assumptions even though he castigates anyone else for doing so).

So, to get an accurate indication of how we are fairing against teams from either half, you have to record the points gained at the time we played them. You can't say we beat a top half team one day and then change it 6 weeks later if they've dropped in the bottom half.

Not sure how many times this needs explaining.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on January 31, 2018, 12:10:26 pm
So, to get an accurate indication of how we are fairing against teams from either half, you have to record the points gained at the time we played them. You can't say we beat a top half team one day and then change it 6 weeks later if they've dropped in the bottom half.

Of course you can. An easy team could have just faced 4 easier teams and have pushed themselves into a false position.

As the weeks go on, you'll see the movements becoming less frequent as the true table nears.

It's honestly not that hard.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on January 31, 2018, 12:24:07 pm
Still missing the point that a game can't change from being hard to easy or vice versa after it has been played. The whole premise of C78's theory is that we'll get more points against bottom half teams than we will against top ones (which is a fairly safe assumption - and yes, he is making assumptions even though he castigates anyone else for doing so).

So, to get an accurate indication of how we are fairing against teams from either half, you have to record the points gained at the time we played them. You can't say we beat a top half team one day and then change it 6 weeks later if they've dropped in the bottom half.

Not sure how many times this needs explaining.

cobbler78 has said from the off how his system was going to work - no point still arguing against it.

it is based on the system that after all the games have been played, we will have gained more points from teams finishing in the bottom half than in the top half.

he is therefore updating us with the position as if the league finished on the day after each game.

no one is saying it is a flawless system - but this is his system and he has never changed from how it is worked out.

continually arguing the same point about form against it is verging on insanity as he said from the off he isn't basing it on form.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblerwatch on January 31, 2018, 12:25:00 pm
In all the many seasons I have been watching football it goes like this - there are one or two teams at the top that are clearly better than the pack and if you are in the pack or below unlikely to beat, similarly there are one or two teams at the bottom who are complete s***e and you are likely to beat - in both cases there are occasional surprise results - as for the other 80% any team can beat any other team and if form was a true accurate predictor fixed odds betting would yield the punter following a system of marginal form advantage a handsome living - it doesn't..........


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Joes Sweet Left Foot on January 31, 2018, 12:33:17 pm
Pretty much agree with this. Form is a much better indicator than league position, but all winning/losing streaks eventually come to an end. This weekend however many teams will be parading new signings so even form may be a dubious indicator.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblerwatch on January 31, 2018, 12:38:10 pm
Good last point - I have no doubt the squad now assembled will go on to better things this season and hopefully much better things the season afterwards but just to manage expectations it may not all gel together on Saturday and the Rochdale drubbing I suspect some are predicting may not happen.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 31, 2018, 13:34:07 pm
cobbler78 has said from the off how his system was going to work - no point still arguing against it.

it is based on the system that after all the games have been played, we will have gained more points from teams finishing in the bottom half than in the top half.

he is therefore updating us with the position as if the league finished on the day after each game.

no one is saying it is a flawless system - but this is his system and he has never changed from how it is worked out.

continually arguing the same point about form against it is verging on insanity as he said from the off he isn't basing it on form.


I'm absolutely fine with the overarching principle, in particular your first sentence. I've never disagreed with that and have frequently actively agreed with it. What I have repeatedly called out is the projection element or more to the point, the inconsistency in it.

I agree - we are more likely to take points from lower placed teams. This is not inherently flawed in its logic. The flaw is in how C78 changes a games difficulty rating after it has been played and projects using these changes. If he had just left it at the initial statement, ie. At season end we'll have taken more points from the bottom half than top then that would be fine. Noone would disagree as it's a flairly bland and obvious statement. But he hasn't, he's made a projection using unstable factors. Now that is entirely his right of course. The issue is how he insists these are facts and everyone else is stupid not to see it. He refuses to answer any question or challenge and only replies with smug insults. He does actually believe his projections are flawless, dismissing all the factors that people have put forward such as form, signings, injury, etc.

I have tried to illustrate this through challenging his theory, I've given every opportunity for him to respond but he can't / won't because he's dug his hole and is too proud to climb out. It's the classic "I think I'm right so everyone else must be wrong" just embellished with nasty insults and using every chance to deflect from the actual challenge and even resorting to critique of grammar and spelling to make himself look better.

Anyway, I'm past caring about the theoretical element of this now as you're right, it's madness to keep trying to reason with someone who is unwilling or incapable of entering into a reasoned debate


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on January 31, 2018, 13:43:46 pm
Anyway, I'm past caring about the theoretical element of this now as you're right, it's madness to keep trying to reason with someone who is unwilling or incapable of entering into a reasoned debate

correct - he is completely bonkers


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on January 31, 2018, 14:11:00 pm
I'm absolutely fine with the overarching principle, in particular your first sentence. I've never disagreed with that and have frequently actively agreed with it. What I have repeatedly called out is the projection element or more to the point, the inconsistency in it.

I agree - we are more likely to take points from lower placed teams. This is not inherently flawed in its logic. The flaw is in how C78 changes a games difficulty rating after it has been played and projects using these changes. If he had just left it at the initial statement, ie. At season end we'll have taken more points from the bottom half than top then that would be fine. Noone would disagree as it's a flairly bland and obvious statement. But he hasn't, he's made a projection using unstable factors. Now that is entirely his right of course. The issue is how he insists these are facts and everyone else is stupid not to see it. He refuses to answer any question or challenge and only replies with smug insults. He does actually believe his projections are flawless, dismissing all the factors that people have put forward such as form, signings, injury, etc.



I have tried to illustrate this through challenging his theory, I've given every opportunity for him to respond but he can't / won't because he's dug his hole and is too proud to climb out. It's the classic "I think I'm right so everyone else must be wrong" just embellished with nasty insults and using every chance to deflect from the actual challenge and even resorting to critique of grammar and spelling to make himself look better.

Anyway, I'm past caring about the theoretical element of this now as you're right, it's madness to keep trying to reason with someone who is unwilling or incapable of entering into a reasoned debate

He would just study your post, search for some incorrect grammar or spelling and then just quote that. There wouldn't be a rational reply to your valid points.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on January 31, 2018, 14:26:55 pm
Pretty much agree with this. Form is a much better indicator than league position, but all winning/losing streaks eventually come to an end. This weekend however many teams will be parading new signings so even form may be a dubious indicator.

This method is based on form... just over a longer term set of results.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on January 31, 2018, 14:58:42 pm
correct - he is completely bonkers

He'll be out howling at the Blue Blood Moon tonight?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on January 31, 2018, 18:23:06 pm
Just to clear up any lingering confusion (to be fair, itís only really ThreeInABed and Bimbo who are struggling)

I have only ever posted facts.

1) Our current points per game against top half teams compared to bottom half team
2) If the tread continued it creates the projection
3) My prediction (different to projection) has always been 12th and 60points, I have never wavered from this (my reasoning has always been we have Easier games to come)

Read back over the thread, look at all of the doom and gloom merchants who had us relegated in September.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on January 31, 2018, 21:04:59 pm
Just to clear up any lingering confusion (to be fair, itís only really ThreeInABed and Bimbo who are struggling)

I have only ever posted facts.

1) Our current points per game against top half teams compared to bottom half team
2) If the tread continued it creates the projection
3) My prediction (different to projection) has always been 12th and 60points, I have never wavered from this (my reasoning has always been we have Easier games to come)

Read back over the thread, look at all of the doom and gloom merchants who had us relegated in September.

In fairness your projection had us getting 31 points not so long back. Not sure then how you can never waver from 60 pts when your theory is so factual.

Re point 1. I accept how you work this out, flaws and all. It's basically just a bit of a guess at the final league table. Don't worry, after matchday 45 you'll have a one in three chance of getting the final points right.

Re point 2. Not sure what you mean by tread and wouldn't dare to assume you actually mean trend.

Re point 3. Why waste everyones time with your ill-calculated projections if you're so sure where we'll end up?

Ahhh. Keeps the attention cravings at bay...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 01, 2018, 14:31:03 pm
In fairness your projection had us getting 31 points not so long back. Not sure then how you can never waver from 60 pts when your theory is so factual.

Re point 1. I accept how you work this out, flaws and all. It's basically just a bit of a guess at the final league table. Don't worry, after matchday 45 you'll have a one in three chance of getting the final points right.

Re point 2. Not sure what you mean by tread and wouldn't dare to assume you actually mean trend.

Re point 3. Why waste everyones time with your ill-calculated projections if you're so sure where we'll end up?

Ahhh. Keeps the attention cravings at bay...


I couldnít bring myself to read all of this. Iíll just point you (again) to the facts. We get the majority of our points against the weaker teams. In 2 weeks time I expect us to be mid table.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on February 01, 2018, 14:37:46 pm
Apart from away wins though, as all our away wins are against top half, none against the bottom half. #Fact



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 01, 2018, 14:44:24 pm
Apart from away wins though, as all our away wins are against top half, none against the bottom half. #Fact



Have we had many ďeasierĒ away games?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on February 01, 2018, 14:48:17 pm

Several matches yes. ZERO wins, thank goodness for easier away games.

The third easiest possible was against Oldham went well didn't it?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 01, 2018, 17:15:52 pm
Thought I'd check the title of this (C78's) thread.
'Easier games to come.'
That's what C78 asserted.
So how have we done since the threads inception?

At the time of the opening post we had;
6 points from 2 easier games av 3ppm
0 points from 4 harder games av 0ppm.
Total 6 points from 6 games.

Since then we've played
12 more easier games and now average 1.357ppm against bottom half sides.
12 more harder games and now average .875ppm against top half sides.
Total 33 points from 30 games.

So what can we deduce using this crude data alone?

We have got fooking miles worse against the easier teams, dropping from an average of 3ppm down to 1.375 ppm.
Fortunately we have massively improved against the harder teams, and this has helped maintain our average of around 1 point per game overall.

Conclusion then
There were no easier games to come?





Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on February 01, 2018, 17:50:20 pm
Thought I'd check the title of this (C78's) thread.
'Easier games to come.'
That's what C78 asserted.
So how have we done since the threads inception?

At the time of the opening post we had;
6 points from 2 easier games av 3ppm
0 points from 4 harder games av 0ppm.
Total 6 points from 6 games.

Since then we've played
12 more easier games and now average 1.357ppm against bottom half sides.
12 more harder games and now average .875ppm against top half sides.
Total 33 points from 30 games.

So what can we deduce using this crude data alone?

We have got fooking miles worse against the easier teams, dropping from an average of 3ppm down to 1.375 ppm.
Fortunately we have massively improved against the harder teams, and this has helped maintain our average of around 1 point per game overall.

Conclusion then
There were no easier games to come?


It doesn't rhyme?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 01, 2018, 19:07:52 pm
Thought I'd check the title of this (C78's) thread.
'Easier games to come.'
That's what C78 asserted.
So how have we done since the threads inception?

At the time of the opening post we had;
6 points from 2 easier games av 3ppm
0 points from 4 harder games av 0ppm.
Total 6 points from 6 games.

Since then we've played
12 more easier games and now average 1.357ppm against bottom half sides.
12 more harder games and now average .875ppm against top half sides.
Total 33 points from 30 games.

So what can we deduce using this crude data alone?

We have got fooking miles worse against the easier teams, dropping from an average of 3ppm down to 1.375 ppm.
Fortunately we have massively improved against the harder teams, and this has helped maintain our average of around 1 point per game overall.

Conclusion then
There were no easier games to come?





Iím going to assume this is a joke, otherwise youíre right up there with Rambo, ThreeInABed and Glastonbury on my ďThicker Posters To ComeĒ graph


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 01, 2018, 19:10:57 pm
It doesn't rhyme?
Damm. Oh well, let it be prose.

I was gracious enough to add a question mark in order to invite a reply.  ;)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 01, 2018, 19:11:46 pm
Iím going to assume this is a joke, otherwise youíre right up there with Rambo, ThreeInABed and Glastonbury on my ďThicker Posters To ComeĒ graph
Explain your assumption maestro.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 01, 2018, 19:55:01 pm
Explain your assumption maestro.

If your post was serious, then read it again. If you understand what youíve said then no explanation is needed. If you donít understand what youíve said, again, no explanation is needed. Which one is it?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 01, 2018, 20:26:09 pm
If your post was serious, then read it again. If you understand what youíve said then no explanation is needed. If you donít understand what youíve said, again, no explanation is needed. Which one is it?
Erm, I'm the author of said post.
What part of it don't you understand?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on February 01, 2018, 20:50:38 pm
Erm, I'm the author of said post.
What part of it don't you understand?
CJ, you are going to need one of these mate. Dickie is quite obstinate. (http://www.katzy.dsl.pipex.com/Smileys/banghead.gif)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 01, 2018, 22:11:24 pm
CJ, you are going to need one of these mate. Dickie is quite obstinate. (http://www.katzy.dsl.pipex.com/Smileys/banghead.gif)

Yes.
Any chance Dickie hails from Billericay?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on February 01, 2018, 22:20:54 pm
Yes.
Any chance Dickie hails from Billericay?
Nah, MK. Doesnt quite rhyme though.  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 01, 2018, 22:47:24 pm
Nice post cj. Not only does it totally rubbish the theory but it also shows up who actually is the thick one.

He can't stand, or understand that as our form has improved, we're bucking his trend and now getting better results against top sides.

If only he'd listened to the realists who advised that current form is as strong, if not stronger indicator than the raw league position.

He'll  learn. Maybe. Not...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 01, 2018, 23:00:39 pm
Just to clarify this ďbucked trendĒ

Vs top half 0.875 points per game
Vs bottom half 1.357 points per game

Despite playing 2 games less againts teams in the bottom half, weíve picked up 5 more points compared to games against teams in the top half.

I look forward to the comments after the next 3 games when the gap will be wider. 🎣


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on February 01, 2018, 23:22:23 pm
Despite playing 2 games less againts teams in the bottom half,
* Against.  ;D




Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 01, 2018, 23:27:33 pm
He's  rattled! Spelling mistakes in every response now....

I doubt he even realises the absurdity of his posts.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 02, 2018, 08:16:39 am
He's  rattled! Spelling mistakes in every response now....

I doubt he even realises the absurdity of his posts.

The absurdity of facts you mean?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on February 02, 2018, 08:24:25 am
how does it feel to be alone 78?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 02, 2018, 08:41:50 am
Just to clarify this ďbucked trendĒ

'Bucked trend', what's that got to do with anything?
Your over complicating things  ;)

Your opening post reads,
'Easier games to come'
Yet the simplest fact is,
24 matches after your assertion we now have 33points/30games compared to the 6points/6games we had back then.

So I'll ask you to explain again.
What happened to those easier games?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on February 02, 2018, 08:48:24 am
24 matches after your assertion we now have 33points/30games compared to the 6points/6games we had back then.

So I'll ask you to explain again.
What happened to those easier games?

think you might have dug yourself into the hole here.......................


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 02, 2018, 08:49:30 am
think you might have dug yourself into the hole here.......................

Stepped off the curb?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 02, 2018, 09:02:18 am
This thread is a classic example of someone trying to embellish an obvious statement to make themselves out to be the most clever in the room, only to find that actually the opposite is true. Ironically, I do believe that C78 has the intellect to delve deeper into the reality of the issue if he so wanted. It's the will that's lacking, or more the need to be right in everything he says.

You've over polished your turd C78 - you should have just said "we'll get more points from teams that finish in the bottom half". We'd all have nodded agreement and moved on. But you felt (and still feel) the need to come back each week and give us some "truth" in the form of statistics, which would be fine if you knew how to use them but despite being told by people with academic and professional expertise in that area that your workings out are a bit off, you rubbish them all as idiots and proclaim yourself a genius and your method / results to be fact.

It's a non-argument now anyway. Once you've shut yourself down and started calling everyone else thick and fail to even attempt any reasoned debate - you've lost it.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 02, 2018, 09:03:04 am
'Bucked trend', what's that got to do with anything?
Your over complicating things  ;)

Your opening post reads,
'Easier games to come'
Yet the simplest fact is,
24 matches after your assertion we now have 33points/30games compared to the 6points/6games we had back then.

So I'll ask you to explain again.
What happened to those easier games?

Erm we got 27 points in 24 games, which is better than 6 points in 6 games. That simple enough for you?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 02, 2018, 09:19:30 am
Erm we got 27 points in 24 games, which is better than 6 points in 6 games. That simple enough for you?
Nope.
With that ratio, less than 52 points for a season, those games still seem pretty * to me  ;)

I'll ask again, where did those easier games go?

* difficult.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Joes Sweet Left Foot on February 02, 2018, 10:15:14 am
The results for bottom of the league Bury for the current season

 
Opponent Home Away
Wigan         L
Shrewsbury W   
Blackburn     L   
Sc***horpe   LL
Bradford         W     
Rotherham     LL
Charlton          LD
Peterborough    L
Portsmouth      L
Gillingham         D
Bristol Rovers  L   
Oxford              WW
Plymouth         DL
Doncaster        L     
Fleetwood       LL
Wimbledon         
Southend          L
Walsall            W 
Blackpool        L
Northampton D
MK Dons          L
Oldham               L
Rochdale             D

Note they have yet to play Wimbledon.

Of the 16 games against the top 12 opponents they have gained 14 (6 of them against Oxford), averaging 0.9 pts / game.

Of the 12 games against the rest they have secured 6 pts at 0.5 pts a game.

No evidence there then that games against the top half teams (as the league table currently stands) are proving any more difficult for them.
Are we to deduce that Bury will take 7 pts from the remaining 8 games against the top sides and just 5pts from the remaining 10 games against the supposed easier sides, making a prediction of 32pts at the end of the season ?

Of course if Oxford were to lose their next game away at Charlton, highly likely on their current form, and slip into the bottom half of the table and Bury were to beat Blackpool at home on Saturday then suddenly it will all change with possibly 8 from 15 from the top half and 15 from 14 from the bottom half (assuming Doncaster replace Oxford in the top half)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 02, 2018, 10:24:18 am
Erm we got 27 points in 24 games, which is better than 6 points in 6 games. That simple enough for you?

OK then C78 - let's use your own numbers to quantify this "easier" statement.

6 points in 6 games, nice and easy, 1 point per game = 46 points for the season - probable relegation (historically - I know you like your historical "facts")

27 points in 24 games is 1.125 points per game = 51.75 points for the season - marginal survival.

Neither are near your 60 point projection so not sure how you get to that. All your facts only get us to around 52 points, even using the top half / bottom half, 24 x 0.875 + 22 x 1.375 theory, its still 52 points (well 51.75 to be precise).  It's only 51 points if you consider we only got 6 points from the first six games.

These are YOUR numbers, YOUR facts.

But.... with regard to the "easier" statement. We've improved by 0.125 points per game since after the first 6 games when you started that. If that persists, that's FIVE whole points across the remaining 40 games. Do you really think that constitutes "easier" games?

And by the way - I'm using your basic methodology for these calculations, where games change from hard to easy and vice versa. I'm not going to quibble over using the proper league positions at the time the game was played because we've already seen that although more correct, it doesn't actually make a huge difference.

For once, just answer the direct questions put to you instead of swerving, deflecting or resorting to name calling. People might actually find some respect for you then...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 02, 2018, 10:36:56 am
The results for bottom of the league Bury for the current season

 
Opponent Home Away
Wigan         L
Shrewsbury W   
Blackburn     L   
Sc***horpe   LL
Bradford         W     
Rotherham     LL
Charlton          LD
Peterborough    L
Portsmouth      L
Gillingham         D
Bristol Rovers  L   
Oxford              WW
Plymouth         DL
Doncaster        L     
Fleetwood       LL
Wimbledon         
Southend          L
Walsall            W 
Blackpool        L
Northampton D
MK Dons          L
Oldham               L
Rochdale             D

Note they have yet to play Wimbledon.

Of the 16 games against the top 12 opponents they have gained 14 (6 of them against Oxford), averaging 0.9 pts / game.

Of the 12 games against the rest they have secured 6 pts at 0.5 pts a game.

No evidence there then that games against the top half teams (as the league table currently stands) are proving any more difficult for them.
Are we to deduce that Bury will take 7 pts from the remaining 8 games against the top sides and just 5pts from the remaining 10 games against the supposed easier sides, making a prediction of 32pts at the end of the season ?

Of course if Oxford were to lose their next game away at Charlton, highly likely on their current form, and slip into the bottom half of the table and Bury were to beat Blackpool at home on Saturday then suddenly it will all change with possibly 8 from 15 from the top half and 15 from 14 from the bottom half (assuming Doncaster replace Oxford in the top half)


Joe, this is a great illustration of the flaw in using raw league position as the common denominator. If Oxford were top half when Bury took their six points from them then they were legitimately "harder" games. That can't change just because other teams beat Oxford and knock them down the league.

The issue here is that C78 has made a statement based on the end of the season positions, which is fair enough but then uses the same methodology during the season which means you get these weird swings where a team is good against top teams one week but rubbish the next. That's impossible but he just won't have it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on February 02, 2018, 10:39:54 am
He won't have it as he is clearly not intelligent enough to understand the mechanics of a league table changing from week to week bless him.

Point proven when he has picked up on grammatical errors, spelling mistakes or resorted to calling people thick instead of trying to debate rationally.

I didn't want to keep this thread going as his ignorance was quite annoying at first. It's quite amusing now though.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 02, 2018, 12:02:48 pm
He won't have it as he is clearly not intelligent enough to understand the mechanics of a league table changing from week to week bless him.

Point proven when he has picked up on grammatical errors, spelling mistakes or resorted to calling people thick instead of trying to debate rationally.

I didn't want to keep this thread going as his ignorance was quite annoying at first. It's quite amusing now though.

Yeah, I'm not offended or frustrated by it anymore. I can be just as stubborn I guess and though I have belief in my convictions I am willing to accept what is obvious - even in what he is saying - there's pieces of truth in there. It's just not the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth! ;)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 02, 2018, 12:10:15 pm
Yeah, I'm not offended or frustrated by it anymore. I can be just as stubborn I guess and though I have belief in my convictions I am willing to accept what is obvious - even in what he is saying - there's pieces of truth in there. It's just not the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth! ;)

boo


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 02, 2018, 12:16:27 pm
boo

hoo


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 02, 2018, 13:42:13 pm
OK then C78 - let's use your own numbers to quantify this "easier" statement.

6 points in 6 games, nice and easy, 1 point per game = 46 points for the season - probable relegation (historically - I know you like your historical "facts")

27 points in 24 games is 1.125 points per game = 51.75 points for the season - marginal survival.

Neither are near your 60 point projection so not sure how you get to that. All your facts only get us to around 52 points, even using the top half / bottom half, 24 x 0.875 + 22 x 1.375 theory, its still 52 points (well 51.75 to be precise).  It's only 51 points if you consider we only got 6 points from the first six games.

These are YOUR numbers, YOUR facts.

But.... with regard to the "easier" statement. We've improved by 0.125 points per game since after the first 6 games when you started that. If that persists, that's FIVE whole points across the remaining 40 games. Do you really think that constitutes "easier" games?

And by the way - I'm using your basic methodology for these calculations, where games change from hard to easy and vice versa. I'm not going to quibble over using the proper league positions at the time the game was played because we've already seen that although more correct, it doesn't actually make a huge difference.

For once, just answer the direct questions put to you instead of swerving, deflecting or resorting to name calling. People might actually find some respect for you then...

Oh dear, prediction and projection are two different things.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 02, 2018, 13:44:55 pm
The results for bottom of the league Bury for the current season

 
Opponent Home Away
Wigan         L
Shrewsbury W   
Blackburn     L   
Sc***horpe   LL
Bradford         W     
Rotherham     LL
Charlton          LD
Peterborough    L
Portsmouth      L
Gillingham         D
Bristol Rovers  L   
Oxford              WW
Plymouth         DL
Doncaster        L     
Fleetwood       LL
Wimbledon         
Southend          L
Walsall            W 
Blackpool        L
Northampton D
MK Dons          L
Oldham               L
Rochdale             D

Note they have yet to play Wimbledon.

Of the 16 games against the top 12 opponents they have gained 14 (6 of them against Oxford), averaging 0.9 pts / game.

Of the 12 games against the rest they have secured 6 pts at 0.5 pts a game.

No evidence there then that games against the top half teams (as the league table currently stands) are proving any more difficult for them.
Are we to deduce that Bury will take 7 pts from the remaining 8 games against the top sides and just 5pts from the remaining 10 games against the supposed easier sides, making a prediction of 32pts at the end of the season ?

Of course if Oxford were to lose their next game away at Charlton, highly likely on their current form, and slip into the bottom half of the table and Bury were to beat Blackpool at home on Saturday then suddenly it will all change with possibly 8 from 15 from the top half and 15 from 14 from the bottom half (assuming Doncaster replace Oxford in the top half)


Good stats, a very odd set of results.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 02, 2018, 13:52:15 pm
What is the simple direct question Iím being accused of dodging?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 02, 2018, 13:59:34 pm
boo
Evers, you made me feel all wracked with guilt and then have the audacity to turn up on here yourself? Itís indecent and a jolly poor show indeed, please return to the Rochdale thread at once.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 02, 2018, 14:05:10 pm
Oh dear, prediction and projection are two different things.
Only in your world is there a difference between projection and prediction. Check your thesaurus.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 02, 2018, 14:06:42 pm
Only in your world is there a difference between projection and prediction. Check your thesaurus.

Wow


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 02, 2018, 14:07:03 pm
What is the simple direct question Iím being accused of dodging?
What happened to those easier games you promised 24 games ago?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 02, 2018, 14:08:06 pm
Wow
Mr Google then?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 02, 2018, 14:35:55 pm
What is the simple direct question Iím being accused of dodging?

Ok... here's a few for you...

If we play a team in October and they are 6th you count this as a hard game, correct?

If they then drop to 16th, you change your previous assessment and make it an easy game, correct?

Do you agree with the statement that a game cannot be hard one week, then change to easy after it has been played?

If you answer yes to all three, can you see how rubbish your projections are?

Note: I am not disagreeing that we will probably have taken more points from the teams that FINISH in the bottom half come SEASON END.

So the big question...

When you make a statement that there are EASIER games to come you are basing that on the teams position in the table AS WE ARE ABOUT TO PLAY THEM. Do you not agree then that to judge how we will do in these games, your "previous history stats" HAVE to be based using the same condition, ie. BASED ON THE POSITION WHEN WE PLAYED?

Sorry to shout but thought a little extra emphasis may focus you


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 02, 2018, 14:41:58 pm
Oh dear, prediction and projection are two different things.

Similar, not different. You project with facts, you (should) predict with the same facts but add your own gut feeling. Hence why I questioned how you can get to 60 points (your prediction) when your projection only gets us to 51.





Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on February 02, 2018, 14:57:35 pm
Yeah, I'm not offended or frustrated by it anymore. I can be just as stubborn I guess and though I have belief in my convictions I am willing to accept what is obvious - even in what he is saying - there's pieces of truth in there. It's just not the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth! ;)

A bit like Stats, more stats and damn stats. All of which can be manipulated to suit an agenda.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 02, 2018, 14:59:22 pm
Similar, not different. You project with facts, you (should) predict with the same facts but add your own gut feeling. Hence why I questioned how you can get to 60 points (your prediction) when your projection only gets us to 51.




That point has been covered before Was.
Simply, he has no faith in his own statistical methodology. That's why he makes the distinction between what his analysis is telling him and what he actually thinks, and calls one a projection and one a prediction.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on February 02, 2018, 15:51:52 pm
TBF he's got 45 pages and counting out of this sh*t, so he's a prize wind up merchant. The conviction and stubbornness of those arguing is just as funny. Sometimes it is better to know you are right and walk away with some people.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 02, 2018, 15:53:27 pm
TBF he's got 45 pages and counting out of this sh*t, so he's a prize wind up merchant. The conviction and stubbornness of those arguing is just as funny. Sometimes it is better to know you are right and walk away with some people.

Agreed! But itís nice to spread a bit of knowledge also.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 02, 2018, 15:55:44 pm
Ok... here's a few for you...

If we play a team in October and they are 6th you count this as a hard game, correct?

If they then drop to 16th, you change your previous assessment and make it an easy game, correct?

Do you agree with the statement that a game cannot be hard one week, then change to easy after it has been played?

If you answer yes to all three, can you see how rubbish your projections are?

Note: I am not disagreeing that we will probably have taken more points from the teams that FINISH in the bottom half come SEASON END.

So the big question...

When you make a statement that there are EASIER games to come you are basing that on the teams position in the table AS WE ARE ABOUT TO PLAY THEM. Do you not agree then that to judge how we will do in these games, your "previous history stats" HAVE to be based using the same condition, ie. BASED ON THE POSITION WHEN WE PLAYED?

Sorry to shout but thought a little extra emphasis may focus you

I do say yes to each question. Now what are you going to do? Especially as Iíve been proved to be correct.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on February 02, 2018, 16:19:16 pm
(https://media.giphy.com/media/E3xXqq617AaFW/giphy.gif)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on February 02, 2018, 17:17:11 pm
Oh man. Hulk Hogan's about...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: #Frank on February 02, 2018, 17:21:36 pm
(https://media.giphy.com/media/E3xXqq617AaFW/giphy.gif)

Going to need a bigger box. 


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: TownOwl on February 02, 2018, 20:35:53 pm
I think everyone has missed the main fact.

Earlier in the season we were diabolical. Worse defence in the country and couldn't even muster a shot.

Now, we are The mighty Teyn and it really doesn't matter if the games are easy or hard, as we'll win them anyway.

Game over.

Town Owl over and out.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on February 02, 2018, 20:51:06 pm
Only one person has missed that point...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: #Frank on February 02, 2018, 20:57:15 pm
Only one person has missed that point...

Maybe two, naming no names  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: southofthecounty on February 02, 2018, 21:23:54 pm
I think everyone has missed the main fact.

Earlier in the season we were diabolical. Worse defence in the country and couldn't even muster a shot.

Now, we are The mighty Teyn and it really doesn't matter if the games are easy or hard, as we'll win them anyway.

Game over.

Town Owl over and out.
That's because it's a completely different team, just as most other teams will be very different. This team we have now is top half.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 03, 2018, 16:05:41 pm
I do say yes to each question. Now what are you going to do? Especially as Iíve been proved to be correct.

If you answered yes to all then youve basically agreed the method you use to project is worthless.

Mission achieved.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on February 03, 2018, 16:55:28 pm
In all senses of the word, that was one of the hardest games we've played all season.
Got absolutely nothing out of it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 03, 2018, 17:44:37 pm
Admin, time to lock this 45 pages of b0llocks, to save the originator more embarrasment


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 03, 2018, 19:48:35 pm
78, during the difficult and challenging days ahead remember there are people on here that still love you and are thinking of you.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Joes Sweet Left Foot on February 03, 2018, 20:16:50 pm
Just goes to show there are no easier games in this league. Oh hang on, I must be in the wrong thread.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 03, 2018, 20:51:38 pm
Just goes to show there are no easier games in this league. Oh hang on, I must be in the wrong thread.

Absolutely baffling. Iím away at the moment so unable to update the stats, however, I guarantee weíve still got more points against the easier teams than the harder teams.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on February 03, 2018, 20:58:32 pm
Absolutely baffling. Iím way at the moment so unable to update the stats, however, I guarantee weíve still got more points against the easier teams than the harder teams still.

*away


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 03, 2018, 20:59:14 pm
Absolutely baffling. Iím way at the moment so unable to update the stats, however, I guarantee weíve still got more points against the easier teams than the harder teams still.

 'I'm away'   'still' twice in the same sentence


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 03, 2018, 21:06:06 pm
Apologies, Iíd like to say Iíve been dragged down to your level, truth is, Iím very very drunk!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on February 03, 2018, 21:33:21 pm
Apologies, Iíd like to say Iíve been dragged down to your level, truth is, Iím very very drunk!
The truth is Dick, you always were at "our level". You just could not bring yourself to admit it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on February 03, 2018, 22:34:09 pm
You would think a 40 year old would know his limits by now.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 04, 2018, 00:02:32 am
OK, I'll give a post match update.

Without over complicating things.
At this threads inception we were averaging a point a game. 1ppm
Since then we have taken 27 points from 25 games. 1.08ppm
Well over half a season on and no discernible change, or sign of those easier games yet then.





Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 04, 2018, 00:07:09 am
Must admit can't quite understand the fascination of some punters who are attracted to '78 and his debunked Easier Games theory. More often than not it degenerates into name calling or worse. Now we have some posters who pick on grammar errors - on a football forum! In view of today's result would have thought that any remaining credibility in 78's theory has long flown the nest.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: singcobb on February 04, 2018, 09:44:59 am
Must admit can't quite understand the fascination of some punters who are attracted to '78 and his debunked Easier Games theory. More often than not it degenerates into name calling or worse. Now we have some posters who pick on grammar grammatical errors - on a football forum! In view of today's result would have thought that any remaining credibility in 78's theory has long flown the nest.

Who is Must admit and why can't he quite understand? Sorry, being childish but just couldn't resist  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 04, 2018, 09:52:37 am
Who is Must admit and why can't he quite understand? Sorry, being childish but just couldn't resist  ;D

Typical - another Ď78 fanatic!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on February 04, 2018, 09:57:21 am
Thereís a potentially interesting conversation on here comparing recent form and immediate factors such as injuries with overall long term results. Unfortunately it has got deeply buried beneath the name calling.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: singcobb on February 04, 2018, 10:16:59 am
Typical - another ‘78 fanatic!

How on Earth do you make the leap to that conclusion?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 04, 2018, 10:28:33 am
How on Earth do you make the leap to that conclusion?

Because much like 78 , hes a twat


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 04, 2018, 13:08:06 pm
Because much like 78 , hes a twat

I know what you mean Alton - pity such name calling takes place.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 04, 2018, 13:30:42 pm
How on Earth do you make the leap to that conclusion?

It was false leap - just thought you had run ins with 78' when on checking it was with Beds!
In this instance please accept my apologies for false news. Sorry to confuse readers!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on February 05, 2018, 08:20:41 am
No away win all season, couldn't have an easier game than Rochdale, although if you go purely on league places Bury slightly easier, remind me how that one went.

Surely this thread must be dead and buried now?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 05, 2018, 11:18:24 am
No away win all season, couldn't have an easier game than Rochdale, although if you go purely on league places Bury slightly easier, remind me how that one went.

Surely this thread must be dead and buried now?

Well the author is conspicuous in their absence. Maybe now the penny is finally dropping that when it comes to determining whether games are easier or not, there's a lot more to it than looking at the current league position of the opposition.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 05, 2018, 12:46:18 pm
Well the author is conspicuous in their absence. Maybe now the penny is finally dropping that when it comes to determining whether games are easier or not, there's a lot more to it than looking at the current league position of the opposition.

Remind me of the points per game when comparing top vs bottom half.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 05, 2018, 13:51:25 pm
Thereís a potentially interesting conversation on here comparing recent form and immediate factors such as injuries with overall long term results. Unfortunately it has got deeply buried beneath the name calling.
Ok then.
In terms of upward improving trends.
We have had 2 winning league runs of 3 victories, one against Gills(a) Blackpool(h) and oxford(a), and then one against Southend(h) Bradford(a) and Donkeys(h).
Chuck a draw with Rochdale(a) and Blackburn(a) on those runs respectively, and you get our two longest leage runs of four without deafeat.
Five of those games were played away and three were played at home
Four games(3wins) were against C78s current so called harder opponents, and four games(3wins) against his easier opponents.
If you can find a pattern in those figures alone, I applaud you.

Regarding injuries, suspensions, transfer windows etc that's surely for another thread because the OP has constantly expressed a desire to keep this as simple as possible, unless it suits his argument otherwise of course.
So since his first post suggested easier games were coming, the simplest analysis shows we currently average 1.08ppm from league matches played since then, compared to 1ppm from league matches up to then.

The distraction.
Although it's been shown that in some previous seasons we've actually fared better against lower opponents (by Buster?) I don't think anyone has ever argued on this thread against the idea that we could and should pick up more points against teams in the lower half or against teams below us.

C78 has been arguing with himself on that one, and then declaring himself proved right  ;D
Actions attributable to only a very small section of society?..


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 05, 2018, 13:59:17 pm
Ok then.
In terms of upward improving trends.
We have had 2 winning league runs of 3 victories, one against Gills(a) Blackpool(h) and oxford(a), and then one against Southend(h) Bradford(a) and Donkeys(h).
Chuck a draw with Rochdale(a) and Blackburn(a) on those runs respectively, and you get our two longest leage runs of four without deafeat.
Five of those games were played away and three were played at home
Four games(3wins) were against C78s current so called harder opponents, and four games(3wins) against his easier opponents.
If you can find a pattern in those figures alone, I applaud you.

Regarding injuries, suspensions, transfer windows etc that's surely for another thread because the OP has constantly expressed a desire to keep this as simple as possible, unless it suits his argument otherwise of course.
So since his first post suggested easier games were coming, the simplest analysis shows we currently average 1.08ppm from league matches played since then, compared to 1ppm from league matches up to then.

The distraction.
Although it's been shown in that in some previous seasons that we've actually fared better against lower opponents (by Buster?) I don't think anyone has ever argued on this thread against the idea that we could and should pick up more points against teams in the lower half or against teams below us.

C78 has been arguing with himself on that one, and then declaring himself proved right  ;D
Actions attributable to only a very small section of society?..

This pretty much says it all.

It's disappointing that C78 could not take the general agreement with the basic statement around getting more points from the (eventual) bottom half and then be open minded about everything else as this would have enhanced the thread.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 05, 2018, 14:13:30 pm
Who is Must admit and why can't he quite understand? Sorry, being childish but just couldn't resist  ;D

Worked it out yet?



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Buster on February 05, 2018, 22:59:19 pm

Although it's been shown that in some previous seasons we've actually fared better against lower opponents (by Buster?) I don't think anyone has ever argued on this thread against the idea that we could and should pick up more points against teams in the lower half or against teams below us.

I know itís just a slip, but for the benefit of others and to correct your sentence, I demonstrated that weíve fared better against the teams finishing HIGHER (not lower) than us in previous seasons.  That was on page 6 which begs the question; How on earth has this thread continued for this long?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 06, 2018, 08:06:21 am
Well? Anyone able to provide the current numbers to prove my point? (yet again)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 06, 2018, 10:00:13 am
Well? Anyone able to provide the current numbers to prove my point? (yet again)

C78....

You need to let this go until after the last game of the season as your whole theory depends on knowing where everyone finishes.

If however, you do wish to see how we've fared against teams "in running" you need to do it properly and base our performances against where the opposition were at the time we played them as otherwise your musings are meaningless.

If you could just accept that, in the same way that everyone accepts your basic concept regarding end of season, all would be well


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 06, 2018, 10:04:41 am
Well? Anyone able to provide the current numbers to prove my point? (yet again)

And to be fair, it's not up to us to prove your theory. I already did it properly once, you could have easily carried that on. I even gave you the web link. Unless you're worried doing it properly might disprove something (which it probably won't)

We're not great at the moment, we'll most likely do better against teams around or below us as opposed to those well above.

I'm trying to be reasonable about this, you should try to be too


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 06, 2018, 10:13:30 am
C78....

You need to let this go until after the last game of the season as your whole theory depends on knowing where everyone finishes.

If however, you do wish to see how we've fared against teams "in running" you need to do it properly and base our performances against where the opposition were at the time we played them as otherwise your musings are meaningless.

If you could just accept that, in the same way that everyone accepts your basic concept regarding end of season, all would be well

I donít need to to anything mate! Any chance of reminding me of the facts as we currently stand though? No? I thought not.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 06, 2018, 10:15:10 am

We're not great at the moment, we'll most likely do better against teams around or below us as opposed to those well above.


You are correct.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on February 06, 2018, 11:58:57 am

We're not great at the moment, we'll most likely do better against teams around or below us as opposed to those well above.


Unless they were near the top when we played them, then drop down at the end of the season. Then we won't know what should have actually been an easier games. Bradford are the prime example of a team you would have happily played every week over the past few games. Once they get a new manager maybe not.

Dr Who is quite topical in the news at the moment. What this whole genius theory is missing is a TARDIS.

You see it Rambo, everyone sees it. 78 knows it, he's not stupid and even knows what a # is but you're 40 odd pages in. Even if we end up having more points against the top half at the end of the season, it will be deemed 'unusual' so there is no end point to the debate either way. It'd start again next year and before you know it we'd be on the best of three.

Just have a deep breath and walk away ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 06, 2018, 14:52:05 pm
I know itís just a slip, but for the benefit of others and to correct your sentence, I demonstrated that weíve fared better against the teams finishing HIGHER (not lower) than us in previous seasons.  That was on page 6 which begs the question; How on earth has this thread continued for this long?
Thanks Buster you are of course correct.
Well done for getting through the banalities of my post and spotting my mistake.

Sideshow Dickie is still arguing with himself I see.  ;D



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 06, 2018, 15:12:42 pm
Unbelievable isn't it? I've done my best to be as gracious as possible and agree as far as humanly possible, all in the vain hope there might by just a tiny bit of reciprocity.

I genuinely am retiring from this now - I don't like having such negative thoughts about someone I've never even met but I am at the point now where I think he just needs a good shake!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 06, 2018, 15:20:20 pm


Just have a deep breath and walk away ;D

As if ! '78 flicks out a line and there is a queue to take the bait.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 06, 2018, 15:29:39 pm
Unbelievable isn't it? I've done my best to be as gracious as possible and agree as far as humanly possible, all in the vain hope there might by just a tiny bit of reciprocity.

I genuinely am retiring from this now - I don't like having such negative thoughts about someone I've never even met but I am at the point now where I think he just needs a good shake!
You are a good human being Was, make no mistake.

Actually, I hold a different view.
I don't think this thread should be closed.

I'm looking forward to the evening after we've played our penultimate game of the season when C78 drops the last but one piece into his puzzle and then gives all us his projection and his prediction for season end.
I wonder what the tolerance will be between the two then?
It's something I've been looking forward to with increasing anticipation and I've no doubt will be the highlight of my season.
KVV will have to do something truly special to displace it  ;D

C78, Pssst...there's a new piece of your puzzle to put in right now. Stop kidding around, we know you don't need any help with it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 06, 2018, 21:43:28 pm

You see it Rambo, everyone sees it. 78 knows it, he's not stupid and even knows what a # is but you're 40 odd pages in. Even if we end up having more points against the top half at the end of the season, it will be deemed 'unusual' so there is no end point to the debate either way. It'd start again next year and before you know it we'd be on the best of three.


Not true, if we get more points at the end of the season vs top half teams than against bottom half then Iíll happily admit that Iím wrong and have been a fool. When this doesnít happen will you do the same?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on February 07, 2018, 13:51:26 pm
Itís not about right or wrong, itís about common sense. I would imagine on average the bottom teams take more points against the lower teams, thatís what makes the table, although thereíll always be exceptions. Thatís the beauty and unpredictability of football. The same is probably true of the respective positions at the time when we played them, which would have been far more credible.
Hats off for rinsing this thread within an inch of its life.  ;D
Donít worry about admitting the fool bit mate regardless....


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 07, 2018, 16:09:30 pm
Not true, if we get more points at the end of the season vs top half teams than against bottom half then Iíll happily admit that Iím wrong and have been a fool. When this doesnít happen will you do the same?

Meh.

I said I wouldn't do this but....

C78, you are either word blind, stupid or just here to wind people up. There are no fools (well.....) We've all agreed that at the end of the season, logically we SHOULD have collected more points against lower placed teams. That is not and never has been a bone of contention. You can let this bit go - really, you can.

I don't subscribe to a simplistic "one game is easier than another" so I'm not even contesting that either.

Please..... PLEASE.... see that where the disagreement lies is in how you are making your projections - you are moving teams positions around after the fact to obtain past performance and using a very raw and simplistic method to predict future results. I think in truth you have realised it is flawed in but are either too proud to admit that there may be a better way to formulate such a projection or you just like being obstinate and fishing for replies.

Either way, it comes across as annoying.

Deja vu x25...

Can you not at least concede this last fact?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 07, 2018, 17:53:16 pm
Meh.

I said I wouldn't do this but....

C78, you are either word blind, stupid or just here to wind people up. There are no fools (well.....) We've all agreed that at the end of the season, logically we SHOULD have collected more points against lower placed teams. That is not and never has been a bone of contention. You can let this bit go - really, you can.

I don't subscribe to a simplistic "one game is easier than another" so I'm not even contesting that either.

Please..... PLEASE.... see that where the disagreement lies is in how you are making your projections - you are moving teams positions around after the fact to obtain past performance and using a very raw and simplistic method to predict future results. I think in truth you have realised it is flawed in but are either too proud to admit that there may be a better way to formulate such a projection or you just like being obstinate and fishing for replies.

Either way, it comes across as annoying.

Deja vu x25...

Can you not at least concede this last fact?

Itís the way Iím doing it mate, if you donít like it, tough.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 07, 2018, 20:42:12 pm
What would you do if you sat next to a man on the bus and he turned to you and said ďthe moons made of cheeseĒ. Would you say ďhow interestingĒíand change seats? Or alternatively would you lecture the bloke on physics, geology, NASA and show him pictures of Neil Armstrong etc to the point of obsession until he concedeeds he was wrong? Great fun for everyone else on the bus though?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 07, 2018, 23:03:11 pm
Itís the way Iím doing it mate, if you donít like it, tough.

Fair enough. You've only got yourself to convince anyway.

Enjoy your cheese....


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 07, 2018, 23:36:19 pm
What would you do if you sat next to a man on the bus and he turned to you and said ďthe moons made of cheeseĒ. Would you say ďhow interestingĒíand change seats? Or alternatively would you lecture the bloke on physics, geology, NASA and show him pictures of Neil Armstrong etc to the point of obsession until he concedeeds he was wrong? Great fun for everyone else on the bus though?

That made me chuckle!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 08, 2018, 00:47:53 am
What would you do if you sat next to a man on the bus and he turned to you and said ďthe moons made of cheeseĒ. Would you say ďhow interestingĒíand change seats? Or alternatively would you lecture the bloke on physics, geology, NASA and show him pictures of Neil Armstrong etc to the point of obsession until he concedeeds he was wrong? Great fun for everyone else on the bus though?

Iíd nod politely and maybe move away from Rambo at the next stop.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: exiledinspace on February 08, 2018, 07:02:20 am
What would you do if you sat next to a man on the bus and he turned to you and said ďthe moons made of cheeseĒ. Would you say ďhow interestingĒíand change seats? Or alternatively would you lecture the bloke on physics, geology, NASA and show him pictures of Neil Armstrong etc to the point of obsession until he concedeeds he was wrong? Great fun for everyone else on the bus though?

Evers likes the bus. Just saying...



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 08, 2018, 07:59:39 am
Iíd nod politely and maybe move away from Rambo at the next stop.

Oh dear. Shows just how deluded you are if you think I'm the one being referred to regarding the moon / cheese.

You need help, seriously you do...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 08, 2018, 14:57:01 pm
Latest update before the easier game at Wimbledon.

Vs Top: Played 16, 14pts, 0.875 points per game, projection 21pts
Vs Bottom: Played 15, 19pts, 1.267 points per game, projection 28pts

Total projection 49pts

Still hoping for 60points, will be tough though as weíve dropped 8 points in home bankers vs Bury, Wimbledon and Rochdale and only had 1 miracle result away at Bradford, hopefully a few more miracle results will even this up.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 08, 2018, 15:58:51 pm
Latest update before the easier game at Wimbledon.

Vs Top: Played 16, 14pts, 0.875 points per game, projection 21pts
Vs Bottom: Played 15, 19pts, 1.267 points per game, projection 28pts

Total projection 49pts

Still hoping for 60points, will be tough though as weíve dropped 7 points in home bankers vs Bury, Wimbledon and Rochdale and only had 1 miracle result away at Bradford, hopefully a few more miracle results will even this up.
;D ;D
Blimey C78, four days before you worked out where that last piece went. Must have been a toughie.

Home 'bankers' Wimbledon Rochdale and Bury.  ;D
I think it's fair to say I'd have been massively impressed had we picked up an additional seven points from those three games on top of the solitary one we got against Bury.  ;D











Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Dr Feelgood on February 08, 2018, 16:25:10 pm
This is more like it. This could go on all season

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/RHiD0K65NxxLO/giphy.gif)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 08, 2018, 16:26:48 pm
;D ;D
Blimey C78, four days before you worked out where that last piece went. Must have been a toughie.

Home 'bankers' Wimbledon Rochdale and Bury.  ;D
I think it's fair to say I'd have been massively impressed had we picked up an additional seven points from those three games on top of the solitary one we got against Bury.  ;D











Really? 3 of the most winnable games of the season, I donít understand your thinking, maybe youíre just easily impressed.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 08, 2018, 16:28:54 pm
This is more like it. This could go on all season

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/RHiD0K65NxxLO/giphy.gif)

Donít worry, it will.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on February 08, 2018, 16:59:21 pm
Really? 3 of the most winnable games of the season, I donít understand your thinking, maybe youíre just easily impressed.

i think its more to do with us getting 1 point from those 3 games, and you thinking we could have got 7 more - which is 8?!



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on February 08, 2018, 17:23:37 pm
Ok then.
In terms of upward improving trends.
We have had 2 winning league runs of 3 victories, one against Gills(a) Blackpool(h) and oxford(a), and then one against Southend(h) Bradford(a) and Donkeys(h).
Chuck a draw with Rochdale(a) and Blackburn(a) on those runs respectively, and you get our two longest leage runs of four without deafeat.
Five of those games were played away and three were played at home
Four games(3wins) were against C78s current so called harder opponents, and four games(3wins) against his easier opponents.
If you can find a pattern in those figures alone, I applaud you.

Regarding injuries, suspensions, transfer windows etc that's surely for another thread because the OP has constantly expressed a desire to keep this as simple as possible, unless it suits his argument otherwise of course.
So since his first post suggested easier games were coming, the simplest analysis shows we currently average 1.08ppm from league matches played since then, compared to 1ppm from league matches up to then.


I don't think there is a patten to be unearthed. People forget there is a massive element of luck in an individual game which makes it all the more entertaining. After all how many other games can you win by just scoring one point?
My point is whether it's better to back a team higher in the league that's gone off the boil (think Chelsea) or a lower team that hit a run of recent form (Swansea springs to mind).


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 08, 2018, 18:07:50 pm
i think its more to do with us getting 1 point from those 3 games, and you thinking we could have got 7 more - which is 8?!



Ah, yes. You are of course correct.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 08, 2018, 18:37:47 pm
I don't think there is a patten to be unearthed. People forget there is a massive element of luck in an individual game which makes it all the more entertaining. After all how many other games can you win by just scoring one point?
My point is whether it's better to back a team higher in the league that's gone off the boil (think Chelsea) or a lower team that hit a run of recent form (Swansea springs to mind).

I'd say there can be a massive element of luck in a game, but it's not mandatory. You raised the point some time back about certain analysts disregarding 1-0 wins I think, and I certainly see the validity in that.

Backing a higher team without form or lower with form?.. If you were a certain type then you'd say class was permanent and back that way regardless I suppose. I'm not a betting person of any degree, but I'd guess the bookies in your example will still shorten the odds of Chelsea over Swansea, after all other factors have been taken in consideration.
What happened to Leicester's matchday odds in their title winning season? Did the bookies follow the then recent evidence and make them favorites as the season progressed, or were they still classed as underdogs when playing the likes of Man Utd?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 08, 2018, 18:52:59 pm
Oh dear. Shows just how deluded you are if you think I'm the one being referred to regarding the moon / cheese.

You need help, seriously you do...

He wouldn't notice you on the bus, too busy licking the window


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on February 08, 2018, 19:25:32 pm
Mystic Meg has it down to 49-60 points. I reckon heíll get it down to within 3 points on match day 46.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 08, 2018, 20:05:51 pm
He wouldn't notice you on the bus, too busy licking the window

Hey, I disagree with a lot of what Rambo says, he might be a little slow on the uptake but you shouldnít stoop to that level of insulting him. Poor show.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 08, 2018, 20:26:58 pm
Hey, I disagree with a lot of what Rambo says, he might be a little slow on the uptake but you shouldnít stoop to that level of insulting him. Poor show.

Nice try but your jibes are as cheap as your theories. However, seeing as you seem to want to make this personal, I think the overwhelming majority who have participated in this thread know which of the two of us have put together the most convincing case.

 Not that I take it as any great accolade...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on February 08, 2018, 21:09:45 pm
IMO, Was, you are the one who has 'lost'. You've been dragged into being the greatest contributor of a thread that you have at various times disputed and I believe requested that it be closed a number of times.
You have ensured that it has continued by adding the fuel to the flame to maintain it's brightness sufficiently enough to keep the originator in the spotlight.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 08, 2018, 21:11:20 pm
Nice try but your jibes are as cheap as your theories. However, seeing as you seem to want to make this personal, I think the overwhelming majority who have participated in this thread know which of the two of us have put together the most convincing case.

 Not that I take it as any great accolade...

The majority understand, therefore have no reason to post. One or two are struggling and continue to post their theories as to why itís wrong. Thatís the long and the short of it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on February 08, 2018, 22:26:28 pm
I'd say there can be a massive element of luck in a game, but it's not mandatory. You raised the point some time back about certain analysts disregarding 1-0 wins I think, and I certainly see the validity in that.

Backing a higher team without form or lower with form?.. If you were a certain type then you'd say class was permanent and back that way regardless I suppose. I'm not a betting person of any degree, but I'd guess the bookies in your example will still shorten the odds of Chelsea over Swansea, after all other factors have been taken in consideration.
What happened to Leicester's matchday odds in their title winning season? Did the bookies follow the then recent evidence and make them favorites as the season progressed, or were they still classed as underdogs when playing the likes of Man Utd?


Whilst the bookies put out initial odds it's the punters that decide them by the money they bet. It's a misconception that bookies have a view on whether a team will win, draw or lose - they simply gauge what the punters think in order to make a market where they are guaranteed a win whatever the result.
The comparison with Leicester is interesting but there's one much closer to home. When the Cobblers were on their winning run in the promotion year you could always get way better odds than the more fancied teams such as Oxford and the like. Punters assumed the bubble would burst much as they did with Leicester and there must have been quite a few Cobblers fans than won silly money over that time.
I think people can be lazy when looking at lower league teams and simply go for the names. For example Portsmouth were always skinny odds no matter how badly they were doing.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 08, 2018, 23:00:00 pm
........................................... and I believe requested that it be closed a number of times.


Is this true Rambo ? if so it does make one chuckle.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 09, 2018, 01:52:11 am
Extraordinarily whilst it appears some are keen not to be labelled the man who thinks the moon is made of cheese, they seemingly have no problem with potentially being labelled the manic obsessive waving pictures of Neil Armstrong about? My fascination with this thread continues, as does the journey on the number 78 bus.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 09, 2018, 09:02:39 am
Is this true Rambo ? if so it does make one chuckle.



I've questioned the value of it countless times, mainly because the OP is too numb to address questions directed at him. I've not begged for it to be closed, certainly not a number of times.

I have however said several times that i won't post any more as it's pointless but like many others, it only takes another daft statement from the OP to start the cycle again.

I'm not seeing this as a win lose situation tbh. I've agreed with the simplistic logic of getting more points from lower teams, I've disagreed on several levels and with just cause with how that logic is extended to create the OP's projections.

I've not seen anyone agree with the OP's logic but I've seen plenty of agreement with the alternatives offered and instead he has substituted debate with insult. If that makes me a loser or the loser, I can live with it

So Deepcut, you're entitled to your opinion, reading back would suggest you're in a minority.

And Nevers, who threw you a biscuit? Your only contribution to the thread seems to have been pi$$ poor attempts at a wind up. You're better off back on threads where you can criticise people for not going to every game surely?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 09, 2018, 11:01:26 am
Whilst the bookies put out initial odds it's the punters that decide them by the money they bet. It's a misconception that bookies have a view on whether a team will win, draw or lose - they simply gauge what the punters think in order to make a market where they are guaranteed a win whatever the result.
The comparison with Leicester is interesting but there's one much closer to home. When the Cobblers were on their winning run in the promotion year you could always get way better odds than the more fancied teams such as Oxford and the like. Punters assumed the bubble would burst much as they did with Leicester and there must have been quite a few Cobblers fans than won silly money over that time.
I think people can be lazy when looking at lower league teams and simply go for the names. For example Portsmouth were always skinny odds no matter how badly they were doing.

So in that last instance, what you're saying is the average lower league punter remains a fool?!
Yes I did understand that bookies react to patterns and adjust the odds so as to weight the outcome in their favour as the market develops, but those initial odds set by them will have an effect on a gamblers psyche won't they, in a kind of confirmatory way, positively or otherwise?
The relationship between bookies and punters, and particularly types of punter, must be a seriously complex field of study.
In the meantime, DC saddle me up please squire.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Terryfenwickatemyhamster on February 09, 2018, 11:24:01 am
I have said as long as this thread keeps it's sometimes tenious link with the actual football is should remain open.

I can't think of anything that serves as a better warning about some peoples tendancy to bicker and point score like kids than this thread.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on February 09, 2018, 12:57:20 pm
So if we start talking about other things you'll lock it?

How about this weather? It's crazy. So sick of the cold now  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: wrigleys on February 09, 2018, 13:16:48 pm
I have recently noted that with increased **** use, the urge to urinate increases, even when I donít pass anything.

Has anyone else had experience of this, and do they have any tips on how to negate this whilst maintaining a frankly very high **** consumption?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 09, 2018, 13:38:52 pm
I have recently noted that with increased **** use, the urge to urinate increases, even when I donít pass anything.

Has anyone else had experience of this, and do they have any tips on how to negate this whilst maintaining a frankly very high **** consumption?

Urge you to see the 👨‍⚕️


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: bri77 on February 09, 2018, 13:49:08 pm
I have recently noted that with increased **** use, the urge to urinate increases, even when I donít pass anything.

Has anyone else had experience of this, and do they have any tips on how to negate this whilst maintaining a frankly very high **** consumption?

Maybe it's just linked to the cold weather, I've heard this can play havoc with a bladder.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Air-Dan on February 09, 2018, 14:41:47 pm
Would personally recommend going to see a doctor immediately

But it probably is just the cold. It has indeed been very cold. Fair bit of snow up my way as well, very wintry.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: eddieeddie on February 09, 2018, 14:43:17 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUkluHDX4AAY3VW.jpg)

Discuss.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Terryfenwickatemyhamster on February 09, 2018, 16:26:35 pm
Sometimes you just wish you'd kept your mouth shut  ;D ;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 09, 2018, 16:44:45 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DUkluHDX4AAY3VW.jpg)

Discuss.

Can I assume you are doing fajitas for tea, the quality of the peppers don't look the best, Lidl ?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on February 09, 2018, 16:59:46 pm
Beyond their best before date?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: eddieeddie on February 09, 2018, 17:17:56 pm
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d3/d1/4d/d3d14d13a9a353cad878c5abcc5398d7.jpg)








Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on February 09, 2018, 18:13:19 pm
Thanks for page 49 chaps  ;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 09, 2018, 19:01:28 pm
Thanks for page 49 chaps  ;D ;D ;D

Great wasn't it!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 09, 2018, 19:06:30 pm
The previous symptoms described by some posters could be attributed to nerves or stress no doubt brought on by the recent poor performance against Rochdale. The shock of the result would have been compounded by the lowly league position of the opposition. This fixture should have resulted in an easier game that we were guaranteed to win, as highlighted by the author of the thread. Perhaps the thread should be renamed Stats, easier games to come? I nearly pissed myself!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 09, 2018, 19:24:04 pm
The peppers shown by the previous posters can indeed be an important  part of sports nutrition that can also aliviate stress. Could be a vital addition to the squad and supporters diet in the upcoming easy fixture against Wimbledon? https://www.blackmores.com.au/energy/9-nutrients-for-sports-nutrition

On reflection perhaps the thread should be renamed Stats, easier games to come. I nearly pissed myself so am eating more capsicums!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 10, 2018, 18:38:07 pm
Never in doubt was it? You know why that is kids. Stats to follow.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on February 10, 2018, 19:03:54 pm
Never in doubt was it?
Neither was Rochdale.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: wrigleys on February 10, 2018, 19:41:58 pm
I tell you something for nothing - Iíd love the chance to clamber onto that Elise Christie. Can you imagine the pushback youíd get from her. Woof.

Feel free to add any Winter Olympics observations here.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: OldStratfordCobbler on February 10, 2018, 23:08:00 pm
The peppers shown by the previous posters can indeed be an important  part of sports nutrition that can also aliviate stress. Could be a vital addition to the squad and supporters diet in the upcoming easy fixture against Wimbledon? https://www.blackmores.com.au/energy/9-nutrients-for-sports-nutrition

On reflection perhaps the thread should be renamed Stats, easier games to come. I nearly pissed myself so am eating more capsicums!
Best go and see Dr. Pepper then!!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on February 10, 2018, 23:43:56 pm
So in that last instance, what you're saying is the average lower league punter remains a fool?!
Yes I did understand that bookies react to patterns and adjust the odds so as to weight the outcome in their favour as the market develops, but those initial odds set by them will have an effect on a gamblťrs psyche won't they, in a kind of confirmatory way, positively or otherwise?
The relationship between bookies and punters, and particularly types of punter, must be a seriously complex field of study.
In the meantime, DC saddle me up please squire.


I'm not suggesting any punter is a fool. I'm just saying that when people look to the lower leagues to spice up a bet they can often go for the bigger clubs. I've been guilty of that, for example I would find it difficult to bet against clubs like Coventry assuming they are bound to turn it around any moment.

Bookies not only react to patterns, they are completely governed by them, changing the odds purely on whats been laid. These days, especially now the betting tax is removed, it's much more like the good old fashioned Tote. The initial odds given out are often so poor it's laughable but people still go for them and it gets it all going. The wdl formulas you see for football games are quick to change as the money goes in. It's only the extreme odds on and against that seem to be manually set and they rarely apply to football. Mind you, it's still possible to bet on Man City winning the Premiership but I suspect you would get a better return from the interest in a saving account up until payout.

Bringing it closer to home I must admit I lost a lot on the Rochdale game assuming that was practically a cert. Mind you it must have helped the odds for today's game and the third goal meant I wasn't tempted to cash out early.

What's the thoughts on Tuesday? Cobs are 7/5 the win which isn't exactly great and the loss to Rochdale seems to be regarded as a blip in the recent resurgence. The best bet of the night to me looks like Walsall at 2/1 to beat Doncaster




Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 11, 2018, 08:55:17 am
I'm not suggesting any punter is a fool. I'm just saying that when people look to the lower leagues to spice up a bet they can often go for the bigger clubs. I've been guilty of that, for example I would find it difficult to bet against clubs like Coventry assuming they are bound to turn it around any moment.

Bookies not only react to patterns, they are completely governed by them, changing the odds purely on whats been laid. These days, especially now the betting tax is removed, it's much more like the good old fashioned Tote. The initial odds given out are often so poor it's laughable but people still go for them and it gets it all going. The wdl formulas you see for football games are quick to change as the money goes in. It's only the extreme odds on and against that seem to be manually set and they rarely apply to football. Mind you, it's still possible to bet on Man City winning the Premiership but I suspect you would get a better return from the interest in a saving account up until payout.

Bringing it closer to home I must admit I lost a lot on the Rochdale game assuming that was practically a cert. Mind you it must have helped the odds for today's game and the third goal meant I wasn't tempted to cash out early.

What's the thoughts on Tuesday? Cobs are 7/5 the win which isn't exactly great and the loss to Rochdale seems to be regarded as a blip in the recent resurgence. The best bet of the night to me looks like Walsall at 2/1 to beat Doncaster



Well I for one hope Coventry continue to languish well below their natural position, if that's the received wisdom.
I think it must be my idea of the average punter that's little dated then, but perhaps I can be excused given the only way I know how to 'cash out' is to get myself down to HSBC.
I still struggle to see why our game against Rochdale was considered by some as 'easy' (for betting purposes I mean), or that any league game for us so far this season could be considered a cert or a banker tbh.
I hope you win more than you lose Alton, if that's the important bit for you of course.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 11, 2018, 10:41:45 am
Facts and figures.

Great news for all of those struggling with the points per game (mentioning no names) we have played an equal amount of top half and bottom half teams. However, should we finish bottom half we now have more harder games to come with only 6 easier games remaining. Hopefully we can push into the top half which will give us a couple more Easier games and obviously improve the projection.

Vs top half Played 16, 11pts, 0.6875ppg, projection 16.5pts
Vs bottom half Played 16, 25pts, 1.5625ppg, projection 34.37pts
Projection 51pts, (if we finish bottom half)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: wrigleys on February 11, 2018, 11:18:51 am
This morning I have seen my first daffodils in full bloom.

Have any other cobbs fans seen any other signs of Spring? Feel free to share your observations on this thread.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: andycobbler on February 11, 2018, 12:58:06 pm
This morning I have seen my first daffodils in full bloom.

Have any other cobbs fans seen any other signs of Spring? Feel free to share your observations on this thread.

Hmm! but are they bottom half daffs or top half ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 11, 2018, 13:03:15 pm
Itís interesting what people have to resort to when they are shown up to be idiots.

I suppose 11pts in 16 games Vs 25pts in 16 games itís hard for them to put forward a coherent argument, the usual suspect must be spitting feathers.

Iíll make it easy for you, apology accepted, no hard feelings.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 11, 2018, 14:29:51 pm
Just spent a couple of days in the Cotswolds, there really are some hidden gems there. We stayed in moreton in marsh, despite the weather we had a nice walk through bourton on the water, followed by a drive through the very picturesque Broadway. Next weekend , I'm off to Adelburgh in Suffolk from Thursday to sunday Ill keep you updated if you like !


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: 606 Parklands_Cobbler on February 11, 2018, 14:39:32 pm
Itís interesting what people have to resort to when they are shown up to be idiots.

I suppose 11pts in 16 games Vs 25pts in 16 games itís hard for them to put forward a coherent argument, the usual suspect must be spitting feathers.

Iíll make it easy for you, apology accepted, no hard feelings.

You do know its not about whether you get it right or not ...right?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on February 11, 2018, 14:55:33 pm
Well I for one hope Coventry continue to languish well below their natural position, if that's the received wisdom.
I think it must be my idea of the average punter that's little dated then, but perhaps I can be excused given the only way I know how to 'cash out' is to get myself down to HSBC.
I still struggle to see why our game against Rochdale was considered by some as 'easy' (for betting purposes I mean), or that any league game for us so far this season could be considered a cert or a banker tbh.
I hope you win more than you lose Alton, if that's the important bit for you of course.

The Rochdale game wasn't a cert by any means but at 3/2 the odds seemed attractive. It's all relative and no single game in football can be regarded as a cert as can be shown by the frequent cup upsets.
My measly stakes are one up from matchsticks and I certainly don't make any meaningful money from it but by the same token I don't lose much either. My satisfaction is the occasional times I get it right - a recent favourite that sticks in my mind was Ash Taylor as first goalscorer at Oxford. I also try to forget the many times I get it wrong - Arsenal winning at Spurs was the latest. 


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 11, 2018, 14:57:59 pm
This morning I have seen my first daffodils in full bloom.

Have any other cobbs fans seen any other signs of Spring? Feel free to share your observations on this thread.

Yes, a Cobblers supporter in shorts yesterday ; does that count?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 11, 2018, 15:06:37 pm
Just spent a couple of days in the Cotswolds, there really are some hidden gems there. We stayed in moreton in marsh, despite the weather we had a nice walk through bourton on the water, followed by a drive through the very picturesque Broadway. Next weekend , I'm off to Adelburgh in Suffolk from Thursday to sunday Ill keep you updated if you like !

The Cotswolds ? Bit genteel for you? Aldeburgh bit classical?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 11, 2018, 15:25:01 pm
The Cotswolds ? Bit genteel for you? Aldeburgh bit classical?

You see, you don't know me at all,just judge me on my musings on here, you remind me of Ted and Cricketside


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: singcobb on February 11, 2018, 15:39:39 pm
Do the bookies take a bit of a flyer with the first few games of the season? Realistically the form book has been wiped clean by transfers, new managers and teams playing in different divisions.
Just for fun, if you had backed the Cobblers a tenner to win in every game last season you would have need there to be average odds on the win of 5/2 to have come out 30 quid on top.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BackOfTheNet on February 11, 2018, 15:44:27 pm
Just spent a couple of days in the Cotswolds, there really are some hidden gems there. We stayed in moreton in marsh, despite the weather we had a nice walk through bourton on the water, followed by a drive through the very picturesque Broadway. Next weekend , I'm off to Adelburgh in Suffolk from Thursday to sunday Ill keep you updated if you like !

Our usual Cotswolds stay is in Chipping Campden. It's lovely but a bit quieter and less touristy than Broadway. There's a cracking little pub crawl along the main road too, The Volunteer, The Red Lion, The Noel Arms, The Lygon Arms and then The Eight Bells. Happy days...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 11, 2018, 15:50:58 pm
Our usual Cotswolds stay is in Chipping Campden. It's lovely but a bit quieter and less touristy than Broadway. There's a cracking little pub crawl along the main road too, The Volunteer, The Red Lion, The Noel Arms, The Lygon Arms and then The Eight Bells. Happy days...

Weve done Stow on the Wold, and Chipping Norton too, each have their own charm.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BackOfTheNet on February 11, 2018, 16:04:53 pm
Yeah, been to all of those. We generally base ourselves in Chipping Campden, do a walk out in the countryside in the first morning, pub crawl in the afternoon, nice meal in the evening and then head further afield in the next day or two. I think we've been to all the other places of any size over our various trips. A lovely, charming part of the country.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on February 11, 2018, 16:12:26 pm
Recommend any nice hotels Ian? Got a big anniversary coming up and donít think a Travelodge will go down too well. I like that neck of the woods.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 11, 2018, 16:26:12 pm
[que author=cobblertone link=topic=16512.msg347362#msg347362 date=1518365546]
Recommend any nice hotels Ian? Got a big anniversary coming up and donít think a Travelodge will go down too well. I like that neck of the woods.
[/quote]

We stopped at the Redesdale Hotel in Moreton , google it, great accommodation and the food was superb, as was the Fox in Chipping Norton . Not a great deal to do mind apart from walking and sightseeing, although , anniversary eh, don't need much entertainment  ;)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: BackOfTheNet on February 11, 2018, 16:33:33 pm
Recommend any nice hotels Ian? Got a big anniversary coming up and donít think a Travelodge will go down too well. I like that neck of the woods.


I can thoroughly recommend this place: http://www.eightbellsinn.co.uk (http://www.eightbellsinn.co.uk). Nice rooms, good food in the evening, a great breakfast and best of all for an anniversary break, they don't allow kids!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: DrillingCobbler on February 11, 2018, 17:33:09 pm
Talking of bets, I saw one earlier (PaddyPower) that if I was into big money betting Id pile cash on.

Rochdale are 4/6 to go down. 600quid stake, a grand back. Easy money!  ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 11, 2018, 17:42:18 pm
You do know its not about whether you get it right or not ...right?

Of course not, I already know Iím right. Itís about proving this to all of the negative ďbright sparksĒ who doubted the most obvious of statements from page 1. They know itís coming true and are still struggling to understand why. If nothing else, it will save me having to explain it all again next season.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 11, 2018, 18:33:11 pm
Of course not, I already know Iím right. Itís about proving this to all of the negative ďbright sparksĒ who doubted the most obvious of statements from page 1. They know itís coming true and are still struggling to understand why. If nothing else, it will save me having to explain it all again next season.
Are you seriously suggesting that others on here have been posting that we'll pick up more points against the teams that end up in the top half, than the teams that end up in the bottom half?
Point me to the evidence C78, you're plain deluded.



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 11, 2018, 18:44:33 pm
Facts and figures.

Great news for all of those struggling with the points per game (mentioning no names) we have played an equal amount of top half and bottom half teams. However, should we finish bottom half we now have more harder games to come with only 6 easier games remaining. Hopefully we can push into the top half which will give us a couple more Easier games and obviously improve the projection.

Vs top half Played 16, 11pts, 0.6875ppg, projection 16.5pts
Vs bottom half Played 16, 25pts, 1.5625ppg, projection 34.37pts
Projection 51pts, (if we finish bottom half)

Oi, half a job...
Don't think you can just sneak off without providing us all with your points prediction for season end, we've got used by now  ;)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 11, 2018, 21:11:38 pm
Oi, half a job...
Don't think you can just sneak off without providing us all with your points prediction for season end, we've got used by now  ;)

My points prediction has never changed. 12th place on 60pts.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 11, 2018, 21:14:59 pm
Are you seriously suggesting that others on here have been posting that we'll pick up more points against the teams that end up in the top half, than the teams that end up in the bottom half?
Point me to the evidence C78, you're plain deluded.



Nope, Iíve never suggested that, point me to where you think I did. Iím going to assume (a safe assumption this time) that youíre struggling with words and their meanings, or to put it another way, reading.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 11, 2018, 21:50:34 pm
Nope, Iíve never suggested that, point me to where you think I did. Iím going to assume (a safe assumption this time) that youíre struggling with words and their meanings, or to put it another way, reading.
;D ;D
You're fooking hilarious C78.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 11, 2018, 21:51:42 pm
My points prediction has never changed. 12th place on 60pts.
So why leave it out now? ;)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 12, 2018, 09:49:17 am
Projection 51 points. If we finish in the bottom half. That'd be guaranteed wouldn't it?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 12, 2018, 10:49:27 am
This morning I have seen my first daffodils in full bloom.

Have any other cobbs fans seen any other signs of Spring? Feel free to share your observations on this thread.
No, but I thought you preferred Saturday Night beneath the plastic palm trees?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 11:36:10 am
Projection 51 points. If we finish in the bottom half. That'd be guaranteed wouldn't it?

Yes, on 51 it would. Have a proper think about this before posting again, you are in danger of slipping further down the thicko league table that I am compiling. What you need is a game against CJ or Glastonbury to boost your position as this would be an easier game.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 12, 2018, 11:41:32 am
As some may know I am a massive fan of this thread. The absolute refusal of some to allow 78 his opinion on this has been and endless source of fascination for me and I have thoroughly enjoyed the banter. The whole premise of the thread still mystifys me though. According to 78 playing sides in the lower half of the table will result in easier games to come. However as most will comprehend, it is conceivable that during the course of a season a side may pick up more points against sides in the top half of the table than the bottom. Unlikely, but nevertheless conceivable. 78 insists that there are ďeasier games to comeĒ due to playing sides in the bottom half of the table and this is an indisputable fact. Not might be, or possibly, but there irrefutably will be. Right there is the issue for most. Had he called the thread ďStats probably easier games to comeĒ there wouldnít be a problem. But he didnít and apparently insists it isnít, so in my opinion the endless procrastinating on the subject is complete bollocks along with the nonsense rhetoric. The difference between me and some others on this thread is that I couldnít give two s***s if he agrees with me or not. If 78 thinks otherwise I couldnít give a toss and I am baffled why anyone else does? Itís one persons opinion on a fairly inane subject, that has no importance, relevance or influence on anything, 50 pages of absolute s***e, bloody good read though. As for 78, Iím still a big fan, despite all the bulls***. Heís apparently able to create a complete distortion of reality and still amass a loyal army of dedicated followers, heís almost like the L Ron Hubbard of Sixfields, genius, 100 pages here we come!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 11:44:46 am
As some may know I am a massive fan of this thread. The absolute refusal of some to allow 78 his opinion on this has been and endless source of fascination for me and I have thoroughly enjoyed the banter. The whole premise of the thread still mystifys me though. According to 78 playing sides in the lower half of the table will result in easier games to come. However as most will comprehend, it is conceivable that during the course of a season a side may pick up more points against sides in the top half of the table than the bottom. Unlikely, but nevertheless conceivable. 78 insists that there are ďeasier games to comeĒ due to playing sides in the bottom half of the table and this is an indisputable fact. Not might be, or possibly, but there irrefutably will be. Right there is the issue for most. Had he called the thread ďStats probably easier games to comeĒ there wouldnít be a problem. But he didnít and apparently insists it isnít, so in my opinion the endless procrastinating on the subject is complete bollocks along with the nonsense rhetoric. The difference between me and some others on this thread is that I couldnít give two s***s if he agrees with me or not. If 78 thinks otherwise I couldnít give a toss and I am baffled why anyone else does? Itís one persons opinion on a fairly inane subject, that has no importance, relevance or influence on anything, 50 pages of absolute s***e, bloody good read though. As for 78, Iím still a big fan, despite all the bulls***. Heís apparently able to create a complete distortion of reality and still amass a loyal army of dedicated followers, heís almost like the L Ron Hubbard of Sixfields, genius, 100 pages here we come!

❤️👍🏻👌🏼


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 12, 2018, 12:15:01 pm
❤️👍🏻👌🏼
welcome x


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on February 12, 2018, 12:25:19 pm
78 insists that there are ďeasier games to comeĒ due to playing sides in the bottom half of the table and this is an indisputable fact. Not might be, or possibly, but there irrefutably will be. Right there is the issue for most. Had he called the thread ďStats probably easier games to comeĒ there wouldnít be a problem.

Easier games to come is titled correctly in my opinion. People just confuse the word easier, with easy.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: exiledinspace on February 12, 2018, 12:56:24 pm
There are obviously a few here with no common sense whatsoever, there are also others who have more complicated social issues. If using the last ever bus trip I made with the Mounties in 1986 is anything to go by. Psychiatrists nightmare.

It would all be much better down the pub around a big table.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 13:06:55 pm
Easier games to come is titled correctly in my opinion. People just confuse the word easier, with easy.

Some people are easier to confuse than others, as this thread proves.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 12, 2018, 14:36:38 pm
Yes, on 51 it would. Have a proper think about this before posting again, you are in danger of slipping further down the thicko league table that I am compiling. What you need is a game against CJ or Glastonbury to boost your position as this would be an easier game.

You're the thick one. You posted IF we finish bottom half. there's no if about it. 51 would see us comfortably bottom half.

You get more deluded by the day, thinking you are the only one who is right about any aspect of this thread. The one and only thing you've got "right" is the obvious that we SHOULD take more points from teams in the bottom half of table come season end and even that is not guaranteed. I do agree with you on this but as I've not hung my hat on it as you have, I'd have a chuckle if it didn't happen as then you'd be left with nothing from this thread at all.

Seriously, you can't even project using the most reliable form of information available, though that could be laziness as much as lack of intelligence. We seem to have lost points against the top sides again, even though we haven't played one in the last two games! And your "easier games to come" has been debunked so many times now. We've been beaten by lower teams and done well against higher. When you've learned how to apply basic statistical rules then you can tell me how thick I am.

So, when it comes to your thicko league, I'm guessing you'll be bottom (or top - depending on how decide to present it of course).



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 14:52:21 pm
You're the thick one. You posted IF we finish bottom half. there's no if about it. 51 would see us comfortably bottom half.

You get more deluded by the day, thinking you are the only one who is right about any aspect of this thread. The one and only thing you've got "right" is the obvious that we SHOULD take more points from teams in the bottom half of table come season end and even that is not guaranteed. I do agree with you on this but as I've not hung my hat on it as you have, I'd have a chuckle if it didn't happen as then you'd be left with nothing from this thread at all.

Seriously, you can't even project using the most reliable form of information available, though that could be laziness as much as lack of intelligence. We seem to have lost points against the top sides again, even though we haven't played one in the last two games! And your "easier games to come" has been debunked so many times now. We've been beaten by lower teams and done well against higher. When you've learned how to apply basic statistical rules then you can tell me how thick I am.

So, when it comes to your thicko league, I'm guessing you'll be bottom (or top - depending on how decide to present it of course).



You are my Man City in the ďThicko LeagueĒ quite simply on a different level to most. Keep it up Champ 🏆🥇


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 12, 2018, 15:21:22 pm
Facts and figures.

Great news for all of those struggling with the points per game (mentioning no names) we have played an equal amount of top half and bottom half teams. However, should we finish bottom half we now have more harder games to come with only 6 easier games remaining. Hopefully we can push into the top half which will give us a couple more Easier games and obviously improve the projection.

Vs top half Played 16, 11pts, 0.6875ppg, projection 16.5pts
Vs bottom half Played 16, 25pts, 1.5625ppg, projection 34.37pts
Projection 51pts, (if we finish bottom half)

  ;D ;D
You are both hilarious and a simpleton Dickie.
Let me remind you of your own rules...
You won't actually know if a game was easier or harder until the league positions are finalized at the season end, (unlike us, the sane, who'll judge that conundrum post match using something called the result, and if present at the match, the available empirical evidence).
So mystic Meg, under your rules how many harder games have we played and how many have we got left?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 12, 2018, 15:25:36 pm
Ive just booked another weekend away


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 15:27:48 pm
  ;D ;D
You are both hilarious and a simpleton Dickie.
Let me remind you of your own rules...
You won't actually know if a game was easier or harder until the league positions are finalized at the season end, (unlike us, the sane, who'll judge that conundrum post match using something called the result, and if present at the match, the available empirical evidence).
So mystic Meg, under your rules how many harder games have we played and how many have we got left?


True, but you can have a good guess pre season and get most right. Wigan, Blackburn, Bradford, Sc***horpe, Peterborough, Charlton all really tough games. Wimbledon, Oldham, Bury, Rochdale, Gillingham easier. Iíll admit Iíd have got Shrewsbury in the wrong pot.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: threeinabed on February 12, 2018, 15:29:25 pm
playing sc***horpe 4 times would be unfair


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 15:39:53 pm
  ;D ;D
You are both hilarious and a simpleton Dickie.
Let me remind you of your own rules...
You won't actually know if a game was easier or harder until the league positions are finalized at the season end, (unlike us, the sane, who'll judge that conundrum post match using something called the result, and if present at the match, the available empirical evidence).
So mystic Meg, under your rules how many harder games have we played and how many have we got left?


Here you go:

P14 W6 D4 L4 22pts

But as you can see, a lot of points will come in the last few weeks, after tomorrow night it will get worse before it gets better.

H Gills W
A Scun L
H Oxf D
A Bpool D
A B.Rov L
H Roth D
A Fleet W
H Cha L
A Boro L
H Shrew W
A Bury W
H Plym W
A Wals D
H Old W


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 12, 2018, 15:40:18 pm
True, but you can have a good guess pre season and get most right. Wigan, Blackburn, Bradford, Sc***horpe, Peterborough, Sc***horpe all really tough games. Wimbledon, Oldham, Bury, Rochdale, Gillingham easier. Iíll admit Iíd have got Shrewsbury in the wrong pot.
Do you know what C78, I'm gonna stick with my system for deciding if a game was easier or harder post match.
Also that's enough from me, and I'll accept from you the above as a tacit admission (look those last two up if your struggling).
But don't be slacking with your projections and predictions now, we all welcome those after each and every match, inspite of the daily calls to shut this thread down.
Keep it going, I'll be on your back chasing you the minute I sense a delay.  ;)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on February 12, 2018, 15:41:26 pm
Here you go:

P14 W6 D4 L4 22pts

But as you can see, a lot of points will come in the last few weeks, after tomorrow night it will get worse before it gets better.

H Gills W
A Scun L
H Oxf D
A Bpool D
A B.Rov L
H Roth D
A Fleet W
H Cha L
A Boro L
H Shrew W
A Bury W
H Plym W
A Wals D
H Old W
;D ;D
I'm just pretending I haven't seen this.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 15:42:07 pm
playing sc***horpe 4 times would be unfair


👍🏻


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 15:46:29 pm
;D ;D
I'm just pretending I haven't seen this.

Why? Be interesting to see yours and the other masterminds on here give their thoughts, but I doubt they have the balls. You know the types, picking fault with things at work whilst not offering a valid alternative. Bozos!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on February 12, 2018, 15:57:59 pm
The hardest game of the season will be the last one if we both need to win to stay up.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 16:02:13 pm
The hardest game of the season will be the last one if we both need to win to stay up.

Oldham at home harder than Wigan away. Say no more, Rambo, you have a challenger.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: #Frank on February 12, 2018, 16:15:35 pm
This morning I have seen my first daffodils in full bloom.

Have any other cobbs fans seen any other signs of Spring? Feel free to share your observations on this thread.

I have just witnessed two wood pigeons pumping each other on the roof of my summerhouse.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 12, 2018, 17:16:06 pm
You are my Man City in the ďThicko LeagueĒ quite simply on a different level to most. Keep it up Champ 🏆🥇

Care to explain why? I doubt it. You've been given the same challenge many times over and never attempt a response because you know you'll end up imploding

I don't need to feel cleverer than you...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 12, 2018, 17:16:35 pm
You are my Man City in the ďThicko LeagueĒ quite simply on a different level to most. Keep it up Champ 🏆🥇

Care to explain why? I doubt it. You've been given the same challenge many times over and never attempt a response because you know you'll end up imploding

I don't need to feel cleverer than you...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: #Frank on February 12, 2018, 17:18:11 pm
(http://lazerhorse.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Big-Vegetable-Photo-Collection-Monster-Vegetable-Giant-Cucumber-Gorden-Spence-1.jpg)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 17:52:07 pm
Care to explain why? I doubt it. You've been given the same challenge many times over and never attempt a response because you know you'll end up imploding

I don't need to feel cleverer than you...

Because Man City are streets ahead of everyone else in terms of football ability. Same goes for you in my special league I am compiling. Anyway, I thought you said many times that you werenít going to comment again on this thread....did you forget?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 12, 2018, 18:02:24 pm
Because Man City are streets ahead of everyone else in terms of football ability. Same goes for you in my special league I am compiling. Anyway, I thought you said many times that you werenít going to comment again on this thread....did you forget?

You say special league, you most definitely come under the autistic spectrum.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 18:14:40 pm
You say special league, you most definitely come under the autistic spectrum.

Donít we all? Isnít that the point of a spectrum?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 12, 2018, 18:23:36 pm
Donít we all? Isnít that the point of a spectrum?
Some need assistance, some dont


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 18:27:38 pm
Some need assistance, some dont


Correct, youíre getting there.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 12, 2018, 19:54:31 pm
 ;D You ok hun


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: #Frank on February 12, 2018, 21:03:52 pm
Human life along with all other types of life is still evolving. The modern human is not the finished article. Please see above and below posts for definitive proof.

Don't force me to post more pictures of old men with massive vegetables.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 12, 2018, 21:14:08 pm
Because Man City are streets ahead of everyone else in terms of football ability. Same goes for you in my special league I am compiling. Anyway, I thought you said many times that you werenít going to comment again on this thread....did you forget?

Aww thanks, I wouldn't say I'm way ahead everyone in terms of ability but certainly ahead of you. Thanks for finally admitting as much.

I changed my mind about posting. Seeing as you seem to want to continually label me as stupid, I thought I'd play along and carry on leading you into situations where you can show yourself to be the spanner you truly are.

Much love


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 21:43:12 pm
Aww thanks, I wouldn't say I'm way ahead everyone in terms of ability but certainly ahead of you. Thanks for finally admitting as much.

I changed my mind about posting. Seeing as you seem to want to continually label me as stupid, I thought I'd play along and carry on leading you into situations where you can show yourself to be the spanner you truly are.

Much love

👆🏼 This guy, tricking others into making themselves look stupid 👍🏻

Anyway, back on topic, excited for a huge game tomorrow, would be good to pull another team down towards us and move further away from the teams below us, as harder games are around the corner and we might not have a good chance to win again for a while.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: alton on February 12, 2018, 22:17:18 pm
If itís a hard game for us then by definition it must be an easy game for the opposition. It canít be a hard game for both teams in the same way a game canít be an easy one for both.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 22:22:40 pm
If itís a hard game for us then by definition it must be an easy game for the opposition. It canít be a hard game for both teams in the same way a game canít be an easy one for both.
This is a classic. Welcome to the Rambo & Deepcut battle for glory.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on February 12, 2018, 22:26:30 pm
I hope there are some easier threads to come. This one is **** exhausting. Nostradamus must be turning in his grave.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on February 12, 2018, 23:17:02 pm
This is a classic. Welcome to the Rambo & Deepcut battle for glory.

Why have I been included in this?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 23:21:32 pm
The hardest game of the season will be the last one if we both need to win to stay up.

Iíll remind you. Bury at home harder than Wigan away. A good one, but not quite up their with Rambos many post (he is still Man City) or Alton claiming that a game canít be an easier or harder fixture for both teams.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on February 12, 2018, 23:26:25 pm
I’ll remind you. Bury at home harder than Wigan away. A good one, but not quite up their with Rambos many post (he is still Man City) or Alton claiming that a game can’t be an easier or harder fixture for both teams.

What are you on about? Be careful how you answer, it may earn you a holiday until after the end of the season ...  8)


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 23:35:49 pm
What are you on about? Be careful how you answer, it may earn you a holiday until after the end of the season ...  8)

Was it not you who said Bury at home could be our hardest game of the season?

I donít understand your threat?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on February 12, 2018, 23:36:42 pm
Was it not you who said Bury at home could be our hardest game of the season?

I don’t understand your threat?

I thought that you were the educated one?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 23:37:42 pm
I thought that you were the educated one?

I donít do riddles. If youíve got something to say, say it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on February 12, 2018, 23:39:42 pm
I don’t do riddles. If you’ve got something to say, say it.

It's not a riddle.
You have one more opportunity, or you will be on holiday from this board.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 12, 2018, 23:49:44 pm
It's not a riddle.
You have one more opportunity, or you will be on holiday from this board.

One opportunity for what? I was comparing some of the posts which have baffled me the most:

Alton said if two teams play each other it must be an easier game for one and a harder game for the other.
You said Bury at home could be our hardest game ofthe season
Rambo, too many to mention without scrolling back.

Fair comment?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on February 13, 2018, 00:03:09 am
Apologies Deepcut, you said Oldham at home could be the hardest game of the season, not Bury (unsure if thatís more or less baffling). I assume you were offended by the incorrect quote, Iím happy to stand corrected though.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on February 13, 2018, 00:04:46 am
One opportunity for what? I was comparing some of the posts which have baffled me the most:

Alton said if two teams play each other it must be an easier game for one and a harder game for the other.
You said Bury at home could be our hardest game ofthe season
Rambo, too many to mention without scrolling back.

Fair comment?

Bye Bye...


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 13, 2018, 04:23:20 am
Bye Bye...
I canít stop crying.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cobblertone on February 13, 2018, 08:26:46 am
My biggest concern is how on earth we are supposed to boost the crowd at a chosen future fixture #wotno#

To be fair this is one page of someone stating that any team will most likely get more points against teams in the lower half verses the top half over the course of a whole season. We have been missing a Marvo who would have demonstrated with stats that this has happened 73.6% of the time since dinosaurs roamed the earth.
The rest has been insults over each singular result, one liners and red peppers, although I did enjoy Grove's recent trip.

Thanks to admin for putting us out of our misery and confiscating his rod for a while. Rambo also deserves a two match touchline ban for his pure stubbornness.  ;D

If not locked down I'll hazard a guess that this now turns into a debate about freedom of speech and #free78.

Anyway, easier game tonight....... :P


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: WasRambo on February 13, 2018, 08:45:08 am
Erm, don't tar me with the same brush.

I've merely stood up for myself, understandable really when the most stupid person to ever post on this forum has the audacity to call me stupid, just because I question his maths. If this has degenerated, it's entirely because C78 is incapable of any humility.

~And he's loved every second of the attention. Don't think for one minute he won't return and reignite....


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 13, 2018, 14:59:32 pm
Fantastic, I love it when there is military intervention


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Terryfenwickatemyhamster on February 13, 2018, 18:44:45 pm
Fantastic, I love it when there is military intervention
;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 13, 2018, 19:07:01 pm
Can I ask for volunteers to assist me in my ďfree the Cobblers 78 campaignĒ. Please raise your voices this evening and sing ďfree Cobblers 78Ē to the tune of the similarly titled ďfree Nelson MandelaĒ. However, please remember this is a peaceful protest and the hobby bobbys and marvellous security staff at the ground will be ill prepared for the tide of emotion and resulting reaction? Let the sheer numbers and weight of opinion make this happen everybody!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: singcobb on February 13, 2018, 21:02:35 pm
Actually I was quite enjoying this thread. OK 78 was a knob, but an entertaining knob.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest3181 on February 13, 2018, 21:05:42 pm
He will return.  I am ready.....

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 18, 2018, 06:42:19 am
Due to being his biggest fan, following 78s enforced absence and the lack of enthusiasm for the ďfree 78Ē campaign, I thought I would pick up the reigns and run with this. Er, not going as well as weíd hoped, the whole thing is starting to look a bit rubbish, but fingers crossed weíll beat Poxford and we wonít look quite so stupid this time next week? Hope you approve 78, I admit I havenít quite got your panache, but Iím doing me best in frankly difficult circumstances?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 18, 2018, 18:33:22 pm
Another lovely weekend away this time in Aldeburgh on the east coast. Just down from Southwold, a place close to the heart of TED .


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 25, 2018, 23:00:38 pm
Welcome stat fans to our weekly delve into the mysterious world of probabilities. In the continuing absence of the master soothsayer 78, you will no doubt be delighted that I am continuing to support the most interesting, informative and entertaining thread in this sites history? Well a much needed point against bottom half Oxford surely proves this theory conclusively? What more evidence do the remaining sceptical naysayers need? The master analysts season long prediction of 60 points draws ever nearer.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: everbrite on February 25, 2018, 23:18:58 pm
Another lovely weekend away this time in Aldeburgh on the east coast. Just down from Southwold, a place close to the heart of TED .

Quite a high class scenario this - surprised too. Perhaps yr missus is the prompt here? Surprised you missed out Brancaster and then Holkham.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on February 25, 2018, 23:22:38 pm
Stop, this is serious and you lot are ruining it.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: andycobbler on February 26, 2018, 17:28:23 pm
Is he still banned  :P


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 27, 2018, 10:48:54 am
Quite a high class scenario this - surprised too. Perhaps yr missus is the prompt here? Surprised you missed out Brancaster and then Holkham.

Because they are nowhere near Aldburgh, you pompous twat


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: The Rauldinho on February 27, 2018, 12:21:02 pm
When is C78 coming back? Is he still banned?

I can think of more annoying people on here I would rather have a few weeks break from.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: guest2235 on February 27, 2018, 12:59:01 pm
When is C78 coming back? Is he still banned?

I can think of more annoying people on here I would rather have a few weeks break from.

Nobody annoying springs to mind, Iím sure EVERyBody wRITEs things they regret


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: The Rauldinho on February 27, 2018, 14:25:24 pm
Nobody annoying springs to mind, Iím sure EVERyBody wRITEs things they regret

 ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: DrillingCobbler on February 27, 2018, 19:32:50 pm
I've just totted it up as C78 is still serving his sentence.

Top 12 - W3 D3 L12
Bottom 12 - W7 D5 L5

6 of the last 11 games are against bottom half teams.

The highest placed team we've beaten is 8th (Bradford)



Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Boot and shoe on February 27, 2018, 20:30:33 pm
I've just totted it up as C78 is still serving his sentence.

Top 12 - W3 D3 L12
Bottom 12 - W7 D5 L5

6 of the last 11 games are against bottom half teams.

The highest placed team we've beaten is 8th (Bradford)


Ah yes , but thatís where they are in the table now , not when we played them at the time .
For example , Plymouth are in the play off positions now but previously in the relegation zone .


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Battery Man on February 28, 2018, 09:18:41 am
We definitely need C78 back, it is like reading a novel and then finding the last couple of chapters are missing, we have to find out how his prediction ends up!!!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: The Rauldinho on February 28, 2018, 09:32:54 am
Anyone know how long his "sentence" is?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Grove on February 28, 2018, 09:50:28 am
We definitely need C78 back, it is like reading a novel and then finding the last couple of chapters are missing, we have to find out how his prediction ends up!!!

The last 2 chapters are the same as the first, and indeed the other 78 chapters


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Battery Man on February 28, 2018, 09:54:19 am
Now you have spoilt the ending for me hahaha!


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: thebof on February 28, 2018, 15:14:52 pm
Using the formula C78 has been using, the projection is 49.65 points final total. Can't be bothered to see if he ever rounded up or down.

I neither claim to agree or disagree with why his method was chosen.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on February 28, 2018, 18:33:09 pm
Anyone know how long his "sentence" is?
He was last active yesterday, at 23.17.
For once, he is probably keeping his head down.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: The Rauldinho on February 28, 2018, 19:52:58 pm
He was last active yesterday, at 23.17.
For once, he is probably keeping his head down.

Superb, I look forward to his return.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: just.reading on March 22, 2018, 16:12:52 pm
As it stands we only have 2 wins in 21 matches against teams in the top 12 (against Bradford 11th and Gillingham 12th).

Still have Charlton (H), Peterborough (A) and Plymouth (H) to play.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: The Rauldinho on March 22, 2018, 16:14:53 pm
Nice to see this thread resurrected, where is C78?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: thebof on March 22, 2018, 17:21:41 pm
As it stands we only have 2 wins in 21 matches against teams in the top 12 (against Bradford 11th and Gillingham 12th).

Still have Charlton (H), Peterborough (A) and Plymouth (H) to play.

We beat Portsmouth at home as well.

Using C78 formula, he'd have us finishing on 49.65 points (I'll leave it with you to round up or down).

I think at this stage of the season, you can probably use a dozen different prediction formulas based on the seasons results and all will fall in the 47-52 range. So it's all a bit pointless.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: #Frank on March 28, 2018, 22:13:57 pm
Will we have easier games next season?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: The Rauldinho on March 29, 2018, 08:01:57 am
Hopefully C78 will start a new thread for next season.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Shoemaker on March 30, 2018, 00:00:37 am
Will we have easier games next season?
;D ;D ;D


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on April 20, 2018, 12:36:35 pm
Here you go:

P14 W6 D4 L4 22pts

But as you can see, a lot of points will come in the last few weeks, after tomorrow night it will get worse before it gets better.

H Gills W
A Scun L
H Oxf D
A Bpool D
A B.Rov L
H Roth D
A Fleet W
H Cha L
A Boro L
H Shrew W
A Bury W
H Plym W
A Wals D
H Old W
The greatest predictor of all has called the first of the last 5 games correctly! In fact he is only 2 points out on the last 7 so far? How about a royal pardon DC, Are we allowed to have the master soothsayer back for the last couple of games?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: The Rauldinho on April 20, 2018, 12:46:17 pm
The greatest predictor of all has called the first of the last 5 games correctly! In fact he is only 2 points out on the last 7 so far? How about a royal pardon DC, Are we allowed to have the master soothsayer back for the last couple of games?

I don't think he is banned now, just no longer posting.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: cj on April 20, 2018, 13:14:58 pm
The greatest predictor of all has called the first of the last 5 games correctly! In fact he is only 2 points out on the last 7 so far? How about a royal pardon DC, Are we allowed to have the master soothsayer back for the last couple of games?
Yes please.  ;D
Oh how I miss his predictions and his projections. I was so looking forward to his calculations after matchday 45.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Tabasco Kid on April 20, 2018, 17:30:22 pm
Yes please.  ;D
Oh how I miss his predictions and his projections. I was so looking forward to his calculations after matchday 45.
I doubt that his Ego would permit this.


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 07, 2018, 21:18:42 pm
Apologies Deepcut, you said Oldham at home could be the hardest game of the season, not Bury (unsure if thatís more or less baffling). I assume you were offended by the incorrect quote, Iím happy to stand corrected though.

So, 75 points this season and 4-0 against Cheltenham? What leads you to that conclusion then 78?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Cobbler78 on September 08, 2018, 00:15:27 am
So, 75 points this season and 4-0 against Cheltenham? What leads you to that conclusion then 78?

A) We have one of the best squads in the league

B) Cheltenham are ****

C) Isnít this last seasons thread?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 08, 2018, 10:57:21 am
A) We have one of the best squads in the league

B) Cheltenham are ****

C) Isnít this last seasons thread?
C) I know but Iíve missed it more than life itself, can we have a new one for this season?


Title: Re: Stats - Easier Games to come
Post by: Wolvo on September 09, 2018, 10:30:50 am
So, 75 points this season and 4-0 against Cheltenham? What leads you to that conclusion then 78?

We're going to need a new projection. 72 points?