The Hotel End

The following stats apply only to league games for this season

All statistics based on the team's attacking potential while players on the pitch either starting the game or as substitute.

Nett Goals per game equivalent is calculated as goals scored per 90 minutes on the pitch

  Best Overall Performers (minimum 5 equivalent games

Player	Minutes Played	Goals scored	Nett Gls
O'Toole	733	11	1.4
Long	1582	21	1.2
Hoskins	539	7	1.2
Grimes	2193	23	0.9
Foley	786	8	0.9
Powell	1099	11	0.9
Revell	904	9	0.9
Crooks	1422	14	0.9
McGugan	670	6	0.8
Waters	928	7	0.7
Bowditch	471	1	0.2
Richards	709	1	0.1

From these stats alone one might conclude that O'Toole and Long should always start when fit, Hoskins maybe needs a decent run in the team, it is right that Waters has been loaned out to find some form and Bowditch and Richards should be moved on.

I don't understand. Grimes has scored 23 goals? This season?

No, simply means the Cobblers have scored 23 league goals while Grimes was on the pitch, and therefore shares some collective responsibility.

Ah thanks. That's below his collective responsibility for the goals we've conceded I would imagine. I sometimes wonder if he's colour blind.
Are the stats weighted to give defenders less collective responsibility than forwards?

Good question, and is it accounted for if one of those defenders has played all his 5 games against a team in the bottom half of the table?

The Crooks calculation is way out, should be 1.3

Apologies I miskeyed, actually it should have been 14 goals not 19 while Crooks was on the pitch, so it does work out at 0.9 goals per 90 minutes.

Of course it does.

Fantastic!  We just need an equivalent table for defence and goals conceded.
Then another table for goals scored against teams above us in the table.
Oh and one for goals scored against teams below us.
Of course we’ll also want one for goals conceded against teams above us in the table, as well another for goals concede against teams below us.

We then subtract the average goals scored against teams above us, from those below us in the table
Then do the same for goals conceded
Then cross reference the results with the overall tables.
Take a midway point between the overall table and the calculated results and hey presto - the team picks itself

🙄 this guy though 🙄

Very interesting stats, thanks.

In Ice Hockey they have a +\- stat. Quite simply if you’re on the pitch when we score you get +1 and if you’re on the pitch when we concede you get -1. Can anyone work this out for us? I’d suggest JJOT would top this.

We'd also need to know if those goals were scored or conceded against better teams too

And for home games were the starlings flying in a murmuration?

Whilst this is interesting stuff there is a much easier way of working out if we will win a game or not that is readily available on this site already you know?

Any stats relating to a struggling side make awful reading.
Lets hope to see a massive improvement over the last 20 odd games with our new recruits ripping league 1 a revengeful new one😉

I have got stats on this, but as there appears to be no statistical correlation I thought it better not to publish.

Probably a wise move. i often find them a useful distraction from the game

That’s an excellent set of statistics - clearly you have too much time on your hands !
The one thing I take from the list is that Rico has played 25 minutes less than JJOT but 10 less goals have been scored . That’s pretty damning and confirms what most people think .

It had been a long day ALRIGHT!

Can anyone be bothered to work this out, it’s will be quite time consuming with the timings of subs and goals. As if to prove what we already know, JJOT was +2 yesterday in a one goal win. John-Joe plays, we do better than when he doesn’t.

This tweet from James Heneghan goes part was to proving the above.

Doing a quick bit of statting.
#NTFC's record when O'Toole starts this season: P11 W6 D2 L3 (win % 55)
#NTFC's record when O'Toole doesn't start: P24 W2 D7 L15 (win % 8)

For all the talk of new signings, keeping him fit is a must.

We touched on this a couple of weeks ago didn’t we 78? Genuine question because I am not clever enough to work it out, which is easier? 1. Points gained in a game against a side in the bottom half of the table without JJ in the side. 2. Points gained in a game against a side in the top half of the table if JJ is playing?

Statistically the bottom half game is easier, however, this JJOT anomaly might even things up, but of a grey area this.

Mornington Crescent! (Do I win?)

It occurred to me that if JJ in the side against teams in the top half was statistically more advantageous, then that factor would potentially ring true for other sides as well? Therefore in our case an easier game against us is dictated by whether JJ plays and not our position in the table? Not saying it is, just thought it was a valid point?

No, sorry, it’s not a valid point.

ok, my mistake!

Maybe JJ really is a No. 10 type midfielder after all as well...

Seems to do well, as do we, when he plays alongside Long...

Credit has to go to both JFH and John Joe because every time another manager has tried to play him in that role it hasn’t worked. Most people think JJOT is a holding midfield player .
The stats speak for themselves , as do his performances .
He really is the talisman of this team and everything lifts around him.

This is because Long can’t/won’t challenge for the ball in the air, he needs to play alongside someone who does.

Agreed. A goal and an assist (plus no bookings!).

I reckon this hasn't worked previously due to us having Richards as our main striker and their playing styles may have clashed?

JJ is being utilised in that position simply because we don't have any other 'bully' to link up the attack with the midfield. Which is whats needed when Long is playing at the top of the tree.

JJ's presence there also ensures that the quality of the oppositions balls out from defence are lower, which in turn helps the less combative midfielders to break up play. Defending from the front and all that…

Take JJ out of the team and we become a disjointed, unbalanced side and the lack of pace becomes far more noticeable. JFH is clearly trying to bring pace back into the team across the board but that will take time as he integrates the new signings into the starting line up.

Even if JJ isn't having the best of games he is such a pain for the opposition his influence on the game will always be there.

He's pretty close to becoming my favourite Cobblers player ever.

The following stats apply only to league games

All statistics based on the players contribution on the pitch either starting the game or as substitute.

  Best Overall Performers (min 5 equiv. games)

Player	Minutes	Equiv	Goals	Goals	Nett	Nett gls/
	Played	Games	Scored	Conceded	Goals	90 mins
O'Toole	1001	11	16	14	2	+0.18
Hoskins	738	8	12	11	1	+0.12
Long	1848	21	26	32	-6	-0.29
Powell	1137	13	11	17	-6	-0.47
Crooks	1674	19	19	30	-11	-0.59
McWilliams	696	8	6	11	-5	-0.65
Ingram	1800	20	17	30	-13	-0.65
A.Taylor	2656	30	27	48	-21	-0.71
Pierre	1602	18	15	28	-13	-0.73
Poole	1546	17	13	28	-15	-0.87
Buchanan	2340	26	23	46	-23	-0.88
Foley	967	11	12	22	-10	-0.93
Revell	909	10	9	19	-10	-0.99
Moloney	1936	22	17	39	-22	-1.02
Waters	928	10	7	20	-13	-1.26
Cornell	540	6	5	13	-8	-1.33
McGugan	670	7	6	17	-11	-1.48
Bowditch	471	5	1	9	-8	-1.53
Barnett	665	7	5	17	-12	-1.62
Richards	709	8	1	17	-16	-2.03

  Best Overall Performers (5 equiv. games or less )

Player	Minutes	Equiv	Goals	Goals	Nett	Nett gls/
	Played	Games	Scored	Conceded	Goals	90 mins
Facey	360	4	8	4	4	+1.00
O'Donnell	270	3	5	3	2	+0.67
Turnbull	270	3	5	3	2	+0.67
Bunney	173	2	3	2	1	+0.52
Pereira	61	1	1	1	0	+0.00
Ariyidi	24	0	0	0	0	+0.00
M.Taylor	64	1	0	0	0	+0.00
Smith	388	4	3	5	-2	-0.46
Kasim	370	4	4	6	-2	-0.49
Hanley	231	3	0	4	-4	-1.56
Phillips	87	1	0	2	-2	-2.07
Coddington	90	1	1	4	-3	-3.00

Excellent work. Look how close all those at the bottom are to our current starting 11

With all the chat of stats and facts, the more interesting thread has fallen under the radar. These really are great stats and shows why the players were released.

Interesting to see Hoskins so high in that table, especially given how often he is derided on here. Is he more important to us than he gets credit for, lucky that his games have largely coincided with JJOTs or is he an anomaly?

Must be in some kind of symbiotic relationship with the Toole I think. Definitely not the second MVP for us imo.

Generally agree with you. I do think he has some value, just not in the traditional winger sense. He does put a shift in and is usually pretty diligent at helping out his full back. I also reckon over the last few games with him and Foley wide the teams we have played have shut his side down a lot more, while giving a bit more space to Foley, probably thinking they can get back at him due to his lack of pace. I thought it was noticeable against southend that Hoskins got more space when Berto came on.

I don't think he is a winger though, his best position is behind the striker imo. Obviously he is behind O'Toole for that role but I wouldn't mind seeing him play behind Van Veen with O'Toole deeper in some games.

i think hoskins is way down the list on playing anywhere central for us.

Don't disagree, can't see Jimmy ever picking him there. It is shame though, while he is far from being the messiah I think he could do a decent job behind / supporting a striker like Van Veen. Don't really like him at all as a winger though.

Personally I think Hoskins is underrated. He always puts in a shift, can break at pace, probably wins more free-kicks than anyone else which leads to break in play and attacking opportunities. He also fulfills his defensive duties. His best position is probably right side midfield.

Whatever he is, He is not a striker anymore. 12 in 89 games for us. He's still played in attacking positions. But I still like him too.