The Hotel End

The Hotel End => Cobblers Corner => Topic started by: bungle on September 28, 2019, 18:44:44 pm



Title: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: bungle on September 28, 2019, 18:44:44 pm
The art of effective substitutions is arguably one of the key factors which separate a promotion-winning manager from a merely competent one. At the moment, Curle is doing a very competent job, but our promotion bid is being hampered by poor substitutions which are caused partly by a lack of like-for-like tactical foresight and partly by insufficient squad depth in the attacking positions.

Curle was trying to do something different with the substitutions today, but it backfired massively. He says that 'we brought players on to help us get forward and retain possession' (i.e. Smith and Warburton), which is probably a response to previous criticisms of his 'shutting-up-shop' approach in games like Crawley and Bradford. However, Smith coming on necessitated a destabilising change in the system (with the highly competent Hariman coming off) and then Warburton coming on for McWilliams deprived us of our most effective high-pressing midfielder, meaning that Morecambe had time to play things out from the back. Morevover, bringing on Hall Johnson for Williams on 64 minutes arguably sent the wrong unconscious psychological message to a Cobblers team which Curle has berated constantly for a tendency to sit back.

In the short term, he would be better off making like-for-like substitutions (e.g. Pollack for Adams and Oliver for Williams) rather than messing with a successful system. When - or if - McCormack is back then hopefully he will provide another option: a calm head to be brought in for the last 20 minutes of games when we need to see things out. (I actually think this is the best way for us to use McCormack throughout the season; he's clearly not going to be up to 90 minutes very often and Lines and Turnbull have been excellent as our starting holding midfielders.)

In the long term, he needs to tackle the lack of squad depth in the attacking positions. At the moment, we have no real replacements for Adams and Hoskins and Oliver and Smith are too similar to Williams to offer a genuine alternative. Curle needs to address this by signing a couple of pacey forwards/attacking midfielders who can come on against sides who are chasing the game and give them something to worry about by stretching the game on the counter-attack. It would be even better if these players were capable of adopting a high press in the manner of Hoskins and McWilliams. Loanees would be a perfectly acceptable option to fulfil this kind of role IMO.









 


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Teachers Pet on September 28, 2019, 19:01:14 pm
Good points but no signings can be made until January, unless we go down the free agent route.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: bungle on September 28, 2019, 19:06:46 pm
unless we go down the free agent route.

Actually, talking of free agents why was Kaja not on the bench today? He would have been a much better option to bring on (for Adams or Hoskins) in order to press and stretch the game.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Teachers Pet on September 28, 2019, 19:14:28 pm
Actually, talking of free agents why was Kaja not on the bench today? He would have been a much better option to bring on (for Adams or Hoskins) in order to press and stretch the game.


Has a slight injury picked up in training, Billy Waters also apparently.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 29, 2019, 01:34:33 am
The art of effective substitutions is arguably one of the key factors which separate a promotion-winning manager from a merely competent one. At the moment, Curle is doing a very competent job, but our promotion bid is being hampered by poor substitutions which are caused partly by a lack of like-for-like tactical foresight and partly by insufficient squad depth in the attacking positions.

Curle was trying to do something different with the substitutions today, but it backfired massively. He says that 'we brought players on to help us get forward and retain possession' (i.e. Smith and Warburton), which is probably a response to previous criticisms of his 'shutting-up-shop' approach in games like Crawley and Bradford. However, Smith coming on necessitated a destabilising change in the system (with the highly competent Hariman coming off) and then Warburton coming on for McWilliams deprived us of our most effective high-pressing midfielder, meaning that Morecambe had time to play things out from the back. Morevover, bringing on Hall Johnson for Williams on 64 minutes arguably sent the wrong unconscious psychological message to a Cobblers team which Curle has berated constantly for a tendency to sit back.

In the short term, he would be better off making like-for-like substitutions (e.g. Pollack for Adams and Oliver for Williams) rather than messing with a successful system. When - or if - McCormack is back then hopefully he will provide another option: a calm head to be brought in for the last 20 minutes of games when we need to see things out. (I actually think this is the best way for us to use McCormack throughout the season; he's clearly not going to be up to 90 minutes very often and Lines and Turnbull have been excellent as our starting holding midfielders.)

In the long term, he needs to tackle the lack of squad depth in the attacking positions. At the moment, we have no real replacements for Adams and Hoskins and Oliver and Smith are too similar to Williams to offer a genuine alternative. Curle needs to address this by signing a couple of pacey forwards/attacking midfielders who can come on against sides who are chasing the game and give them something to worry about by stretching the game on the counter-attack. It would be even better if these players were capable of adopting a high press in the manner of Hoskins and McWilliams. Loanees would be a perfectly acceptable option to fulfil this kind of role IMO.









 
Canít add a single thing to that. Sometimes as a manager in any industry you have to hold your hands up and admit you got it wrong. Thatís not a weakness, itís a strength. I hope Curle has the Jacobs to look at himself when he carries out the inevitable inquest on the Morecambe game? The view from my laptop indicated the players did very little wrong?


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: observer1 on September 29, 2019, 01:49:57 am
Canít add a single thing to that. Sometimes as a manager in any industry you have to hold your hands up and admit you got it wrong. Thatís not a weakness, itís a strength. I hope Curle has the Jacobs to look at himself when he carries out the inevitable inquest on the Morecambe game? The view from my laptop indicated the players did very little wrong?
I don't disagree with your overall point - little doubt Curle's tactics were the difference between drawing and winning - but the first goal looks disappointing for a few reasons...

1) Cornell should maybe have done a little better;
2) The amount of time and space their lad had to take the shot;
3) The fact it's virtually a carbon copy of Crawley's first goal last week albeit from slightly further out, did we not study the video and learn from the mistake?

The second goal is just a silly goal that is hard to lay blame for, but the damage was already done at 2-1 and Curle's bizarre substitutions setting the tone for the closing minutes.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 29, 2019, 03:52:46 am
I don't disagree with your overall point - little doubt Curle's tactics were the difference between drawing and winning - but the first goal looks disappointing for a few reasons...

1) Cornell should maybe have done a little better;
2) The amount of time and space their lad had to take the shot;
3) The fact it's virtually a carbon copy of Crawley's first goal last week albeit from slightly further out, did we not study the video and learn from the mistake?

The second goal is just a silly goal that is hard to lay blame for, but the damage was already done at 2-1 and Curle's bizarre substitutions setting the tone for the closing minutes.
I think both goals were disappointing because without the changes the chances are that Morecambe wouldnít have been in that area of the pitch? Sorry if Iím a bit snappy, this latest capitulation has p1ssed me off considerably more than the previous ones. As Bungle said, KC is doing ok, but at some point if he is ever going to win a promotion he is going to have to do better than ok?

I remember the days when we used to concede more in the second half though.
https://youtu.be/7mgrdWxfrm8


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Buster on September 29, 2019, 08:50:24 am
Yes it is frustrating to keep getting into these winning positions and then capitulating.  However, itís a common feature of football and youíll find that the last 10 minutes of all games (across the entire league/season) is the busiest 10 minutes in terms of when goals are scored. Mainly because the team with nothing to lose throw caution to the wind!
Our stats this season however do make very poor reading in terms of goals scored/conceded during this period and throwing away a 2 goal cushion, in consecutive games, is particularly galling.  However I donít thinks itís down to squad depth, we do have the players. Itís down to a combination of things: tactics (particularly not leaving at least one man up to either relieve pressure, or even breakaway); some unfathomable substitutions, to be fair KC does offer his explanations (but it is getting tiring hearing him say Ďwe need to learn from thisí); and of course Luck, as you get into stoppage time it gets more and more frenetic and in truth, it might just have easily been Swindon & Stevenage who got their equaliser, while Crawley & Morecambe failed to.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: everbrite on September 29, 2019, 08:55:41 am
Yes it is frustrating to keep getting into these winning positions and then capitulating.  However, itís a common feature of football and youíll find that the last 10 minutes of all games (across the entire league/season) is the busiest 10 minutes in terms of when goals are scored. Mainly because the team with nothing to lose throw caution to the wind!
Our stats this season however do make very poor reading in terms of goals scored/conceded during this period and throwing away a 2 goal cushion, in consecutive games, is particularly galling.  However I donít thinks itís down to squad depth, we do have the players. Itís down to a combination of things: tactics (particularly not leaving at least one man up to either relieve pressure, or even breakaway); some unfathomable substitutions, to be fair KC does offer his explanations (but it is getting tiring hearing him say Ďwe need to learn from thisí); and of course Luck, as you get into stoppage time it gets more and more frenetic and in truth, it might just have easily been Swindon & Stevenage who got their equaliser, while Crawley & Morecambe failed to.

I think your repetitive use of the word capitulation is entirely misplaced and is also derogatory to the players and management alike.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: CJ on September 29, 2019, 08:59:18 am
I think your repetitive use of the word capitulation is entirely misplaced and is also derogatory to the players and management alike.
Confused.
He used the word capitulation once as far as I can see.
Care to explain?


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Buster on September 29, 2019, 09:48:00 am
Which is the topic of the thread...


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: GrangeParkCobbler on September 29, 2019, 09:51:55 am
Confused.
He used the word capitulation once as far as I can see.
Care to explain?

Donít question the messageboard policeman! Quick to come in and have a dig against a post but very slow to offer any reasoned argument against it!

Donít worry, heíll scare everyone off eventually and have the whole place to himself!


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Coolcat on September 29, 2019, 12:57:56 pm
Capitulation is a brilliant word - and in no way can it or any synonym have any positive connotation that I can see!
Quite obviously, players management et-al do read forums - hence the C&E citing ' KC's reaction to criticism from fans at the game and on social media'...CAPITULATION again lads and Bandy Legs!


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Madrid Cobbler on September 29, 2019, 16:38:56 pm
I think things are currently going OK except for this habit of sitting back when ahead. Overall, KC seems to have got some tenacity and energy into the team in recent weeks. But to me something doesn't quite fit when things go wrong. KC said in his post match interview yesterday that he doesn't tell his teams to sit back when ahead and wants them on the front foot. The substitutions he made at half time seemed to support this argument, but the others were strange to say the least. Having seen the team suddenly turn so defensive about 15 minutes into the second half it's hard to avoid one of three possible conclusions:

1) they were told to do so.
2) they tired
3) they lost their shape due to having to change shape too often because of the substitutions.

KC's interview implies that none of the above happened and it was the players who chose to sit back. While this is just about possible I find it highly unlikely that players continue to "choose" this option against KC's will. On the other hand if the real problem is any of the 3 I've mentioned it would be nice to hear KC taking his share of the responsibility as manager. In his time at the Cobblers I've yet to hear him admitt he has made a mistake. As someone said earlier in this thread, good managers are willing to admit their mistakes. He keeps talking about the importance of players learning. Let's hope he can too.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: bungle on September 29, 2019, 17:10:09 pm
  it's hard to avoid one of three possible conclusions:

1) they were told to do so.
2) they tired
3) they lost their shape due to having to change shape too often because of the substitutions.

KC's interview implies that none of the above happened and it was the players who chose to sit back. While this is just about possible I find it highly unlikely that players continue to "choose" this option against KC's will.

Or:

4) The players interpreted the substitution of Williams for Hall Johnson as a subconscious message that it was time to shut-up shop and the removal of two of our most defensively competent players (Harriman and McWilliams) left us dangerously exposed.

I certainly don't think that the players 'chose [the sitting back option] against KC's will, but he has to realise the subconscious messages that he sends with his substitutions.

KC's decision to bring on Smith and Warburton was clearly a conscious effort to avoid sitting back.

However, instead of going like-for-like, he removed Harriman (who probably would have done a better job that Hall Johnson at marking Ellison) and McWilliams (who would probably have done a better job than Warburton at pressing the Morecambe midfield). The decision to put Hall Johnson on and to revert back to a 4 at the back looked almost like an admission that he'd got it wrong in changing the system.

Ultimately, I think KC has found a very decent first X1 and shaped them into a coherent tactical plan. The crucial next step, as I said, is to improve the substitutions and 'plan b' options late on in a game. I didn't realise that Kaja and Walters were injured. If they had been fit and if they had come on for Adams/Hoskins then it might have been a different story.








Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 29, 2019, 22:46:13 pm
When talking about managerial performance outside of football you can often categorise managers in 2 ways. As a general rule those who make decisions based on the right thing to do, and those that make decisions based on opportunities for self promotion? Of course itís a bit of a grey area as there is sometimes the potential to do both, weighted in varying degrees obviously. However, poor managers will almost always take the latter option given the opportunity. I believe that many of our managers in recent times would make ego driven decisions based on self promotion more often than not. My view is that it was to sometimes prove themselves right regarding tactical choices, rather than change tack and by definition admit the original decision was flawed. This was particularly the case when they had persisted with a tactical choice in the face of fairly vociferous mounting criticism. It will be interesting to see how Curle reacts to the bit of criticism he has experienced of late over his substitutions? I havenít quite decided which category Curle mainly falls into at the minute, but might get a chance to find out over the coming games? I should also add that occasionally you can replace the word ego for the word fear.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: threeinabed on September 30, 2019, 08:22:20 am
Ultimately, I think KC has found a very decent first X1 and shaped them into a coherent tactical plan. The crucial next step, as I said, is to improve the substitutions and 'plan b' options late on in a game. I didn't realise that Kaja and Walters were injured. If they had been fit and if they had come on for Adams/Hoskins then it might have been a different story.


i agree with this - he has found a decent system and line up that is working - just needs to change like for like if we have the need for fresh legs rather than trying to mix it up for hte sake of it, trying to prove he is some sort of genius.
when it works - keep it going - dont let your ego get in the way and ruin the chance of a first promotion in 17 years (or whatever it is) as a manager.

obviously if we are chasing the game then it might be different - but if it isnt broke dont fix it.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Boot and shoe on September 30, 2019, 11:21:49 am
When talking about managerial performance outside of football you can often categorise managers in 2 ways. As a general rule those who make decisions based on the right thing to do, and those that make decisions based on opportunities for self promotion? Of course itís a bit of a grey area as there is sometimes the potential to do both, weighted in varying degrees obviously. However, poor managers will almost always take the latter option given the opportunity. I believe that many of our managers in recent times would make ego driven decisions based on self promotion more often than not. My view is that it was to sometimes prove themselves right regarding tactical choices, rather than change tack and by definition admit the original decision was flawed. This was particularly the case when they had persisted with a tactical choice in the face of fairly vociferous mounting criticism. It will be interesting to see how Curle reacts to the bit of criticism he has experienced of late over his substitutions? I havenít quite decided which category Curle mainly falls into at the minute, but might get a chance to find out over the coming games? I should also add that occasionally you can replace the word ego for the word fear.
So many managers over complicate matters by trying to be too clever . Curle comes into that category regarding his substitutions and last season with his constantly changing team selections.
Just play the correct players in the correct positions and allow them to perform while negating the opposition threat .
Also admit you got it wrong every so often rather than chucking players under the bus


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: EB Claret on September 30, 2019, 11:26:25 am
I think in league 2 it pays to keep things fairly simple, the players don't cope with system changes very well. Therefore it makes sense to make mainly like for like changes. Sometimes more pace may be needed , sometimes better passing and technique may be required. I understand Curly's theory of putting a forward on to get us playing in Morecambe's half but this only succeeded in getting us playing hoofball. One way to see out a game is to keep the ball, unfortunately we are very short of technical players who can keep us in possession. Pollock has shown us he can pass, perhaps he needs more time on the pitch with Chris Lines to learn how to manage a game?


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 30, 2019, 12:55:40 pm
So, on the plus side we are all agreed on on the way forward. On the down side KC is a seasoned professional who has performed at the highest level, whilst we are all presumably a bunch of half wits who have viewed the game exclusively from plastic seats and/or an armchair? Who I wonder will prove to be correct, the tension mounts?


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Boot and shoe on September 30, 2019, 13:14:35 pm
I think in league 2 it pays to keep things fairly simple, the players don't cope with system changes very well. Therefore it makes sense to make mainly like for like changes. Sometimes more pace may be needed , sometimes better passing and technique may be required. I understand Curly's theory of putting a forward on to get us playing in Morecambe's half but this only succeeded in getting us playing hoofball. One way to see out a game is to keep the ball, unfortunately we are very short of technical players who can keep us in possession. Pollock has shown us he can pass, perhaps he needs more time on the pitch with Chris Lines to learn how to manage a game?
I agree with everything you are saying here , but if we canít keep the ball against teams like Morecambe and Stevenage there is something very wrong . Curle instructs the players to get rid of the ball early .
Who can forget forget his quote after the Stevenage game complaining that too many players came short looking for the ball rather than chasing after it being lumped down the pitch . Thatís why I think itís hard to criticise the players .
At the end of the day ,we are in mid table mediocrity which is about where we deserve to be .


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: threeinabed on September 30, 2019, 13:24:27 pm
I agree with everything you are saying here , but if we canít keep the ball against teams like Morecambe and Stevenage there is something very wrong . Curle instructs the players to get rid of the ball early .
Who can forget forget his quote after the Stevenage game complaining that too many players came short looking for the ball rather than chasing after it being lumped down the pitch . Thatís why I think itís hard to criticise the players .
At the end of the day ,we are in mid table mediocrity which is about where we deserve to be .

i don't think that was his quote - although he did reference players coming short - i think it was more to do with players taking more touches than they needed to, instead of moving the ball quicker.
Crooks used to do it a lot for us - come and stand on the centre backs toes and take the ball from them and pass it to a full back - pointless!! he should have been doing his work further up the pitch where he could hurt the opposition!!


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: MCHammer on September 30, 2019, 17:48:42 pm
Is some of this just that we analyse all the things that go wrong when the end result is negative and yet don't as much if we win.  The times he's made subs/changes this season and we held on and won...worked???

To me we conceded in both games at a horrible time around the 20 mins to go mark.  At 2-0 especially away from home you slow the game down make subs and see it out.

If we had defended properly in both games and not conceded with 20 to go we come out comfortable winners irrespective of changes.  Both Crawley and Morecambe got a massive lift at an opportune time for them, rode that wave and equalised with some good fortune added in.

Still learning and missing a little bit of experience at the right times.
 


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: GrangeParkCobbler on September 30, 2019, 19:50:51 pm
Is some of this just that we analyse all the things that go wrong when the end result is negative and yet don't as much if we win.  The times he's made subs/changes this season and we held on and won...worked???

To me we conceded in both games at a horrible time around the 20 mins to go mark.  At 2-0 especially away from home you slow the game down make subs and see it out.

If we had defended properly in both games and not conceded with 20 to go we come out comfortable winners irrespective of changes.  Both Crawley and Morecambe got a massive lift at an opportune time for them, rode that wave and equalised with some good fortune added in.

Still learning and missing a little bit of experience at the right times.
 

Walsall.....lost 0-1.....went behind in the 15th minute......substitutions changed nothing........0 points
Port Vale.....drew 1-1....1-1 at half time.....three subs in 2nd half changed nothing.......0 points
Macclesfield...lost 1-2....losing 0-1 and made three subs.....changed nothing apart from the scoreline.....0 points
Swindon...won 1-0....were winning 1-0 before any subs were made.....score stayed the same.....0 points
Colchester....lost 0-1...were losing 0-1 when he made the second and third subs....changed nothing....0 points
Plymouth..won 3-1...3-1 up at half time....three subs made in the second half....score stayed the same....0 points
Bradford...lost 1-2....were winning before he made any subs.......conceded twice after all three subs had been made.....-3 points
Newport...won 2-0...were winnnig 1-0 before any subs...made 1 and went 2-0 up, made two more....stayed 2-0....0 points
Stevenage..won 1-0...0-0 at half time.....brought Smith on who went and scored the winner.....stayed 1-0.....+2 points
Crawley...drew 2-2....were winning 2-0 before he brought on any subs, brought one on and went to 2-1...brought two more on and conceded in the 90th....-2 points
Morecambe...drew 2-2..were winning 2-0 before he brought on any subs, brought two subs on before conceding the first, another sub before conceded in the 90th....-2 points


A crude analysis I know, but you could argue that only in the Stevenage game has a substitution proved to be effective, whereas they cost points in three games and had no effect in the other 7 league games.
Of our wins, apart from Stevenage I don't believe the subs made any difference to the outcomes of Plymouth and Newport as we never looked in any danger, the other game where we won at Swindon he actually took off a defender and attacker (Wharton and Williams) and put two forwards on (Oliver and Waters) so far from shutting up shop in that one.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: MCHammer on September 30, 2019, 20:30:18 pm
Very crude analysis  :)

I can see the point you are trying to make but it's different to the one I was making.  I was suggesting that in games where we were leading or maybe even drawing, made subs and saw out the game for a positive result you will find little comment about the subs made.  You would probably also see little mention of being negative or sitting back.

When we have dropped points for obvious reasons it gets analysed to the extreme.  A scoreline surely doesn't HAVE to improve to suggest substitutions were effective?  Obviously effective in all cases is subjective as it can't be proved either way what would have happened if they hadn't been made.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: GrangeParkCobbler on September 30, 2019, 21:29:30 pm
Very crude analysis  :)

I can see the point you are trying to make but it's different to the one I was making.  I was suggesting that in games where we were leading or maybe even drawing, made subs and saw out the game for a positive result you will find little comment about the subs made.  You would probably also see little mention of being negative or sitting back.

When we have dropped points for obvious reasons it gets analysed to the extreme.  A scoreline surely doesn't HAVE to improve to suggest substitutions were effective?  Obviously effective in all cases is subjective as it can't be proved either way what would have happened if they hadn't been made.

Similarly we canít prove that the substitutions did actually cost us points, as this totally ignoring anything the opposition may have done with regards to subs or tactics. The only facts are the results, and I guess it probably seems worse than usual as we have given up three leads in the last 20 minutes in the past few games to end up with two points rather than nine.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on September 30, 2019, 22:29:33 pm
The big game changer on Saturday was when they brought Adam Buxton on. Primarily a full back but all of a sudden everything went through him on their left, he upped their tempo playing simple football.
Fortunate with his deflected goal but the game changed when he came on in the 53rd, which was recognised by KC who put on H-J to counter him.
Buxton was given MotM by Morecambe.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on September 30, 2019, 22:33:28 pm
A crude analysis maybe, but would be considerably more relevant if compared to other managers? Particularly those who manage teams around us in the table so are presumably at this point of similar ability? (Yes GPC this is my underhand way of asking if you have the time to do a comparison. I hadnít the balls to ask you outright. Please feel free to tell me to fck off obviously)


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: GrangeParkCobbler on September 30, 2019, 23:25:46 pm
A crude analysis maybe, but would be considerably more relevant if compared to other managers? Particularly those who manage teams around us in the table so are presumably at this point of similar ability? (Yes GPC this is my underhand way of asking if you have the time to do a comparison. I hadnít the balls to ask you outright. Please feel free to tell me to fck off obviously)

Lol, Iíll see what I can do....tomorrow!!


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on October 01, 2019, 01:08:31 am
Lol, Iíll see what I can do....tomorrow!!
🎶 And then a hero comes along, with the strength to carry on 🎶


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: 1971cobbler on October 01, 2019, 06:05:19 am
The big game changer on Saturday was when they brought Adam Buxton on. Primarily a full back but all of a sudden everything went through him on their left, he upped their tempo playing simple football.
Fortunate with his deflected goal but the game changed when he came on in the 53rd, which was recognised by KC who put on H-J to counter him.
Buxton was given MotM by Morecambe.

Maybe the query needs to be about the effectiveness of the substitutions the opposition make, and how our onfield XI counter their threat?

It's obvious that KC gives them detailed plans before the game on how the opposition will likely set up etc, but I just wonder if that then extends to "in-game" tactical knowledge being passed on.

Alternatively, as mental fatigue sets in, are the players able to grasp the change made by the opposition, and should be able to adapt their defensive tactics to suit?

I personally think bringing on Warburton for McWilliams in both recent matches has exposed his lack of FL experience.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: west stand oap on October 01, 2019, 12:04:37 pm
There are some concerning statistics in the chron
1. We have the 4th lowest possession % in the division
2. We are 2nd lowest on passes completed
3. No team in the division have had more shots against them
4. Along with Oldham we have the most yellow cards. The number of stupid and avoidable yellow cards has       been a concern for some time.
   It would be unfair not to mention the statistics at the higher level
5. Only 2 sides have scored more goals from set pieces
6. Charlie Goode has more blocks and clearances than any other player in the division


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: CJ on October 01, 2019, 12:39:58 pm
There are some concerning statistics in the chron
1. We have the 4th lowest possession % in the division
2. We are 2nd lowest on passes completed
3. No team in the division have had more shots against them
4. Along with Oldham we have the most yellow cards. The number of stupid and avoidable yellow cards has       been a concern for some time.
   It would be unfair not to mention the statistics at the higher level
5. Only 2 sides have scored more goals from set pieces
6. Charlie Goode has more blocks and clearances than any other player in the division
Not sure 6 should be taken as a positive?


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Manwork04 on October 01, 2019, 12:44:36 pm
There are some concerning statistics in the chron
1. We have the 4th lowest possession % in the division
2. We are 2nd lowest on passes completed
3. No team in the division have had more shots against them
4. Along with Oldham we have the most yellow cards. The number of stupid and avoidable yellow cards has       been a concern for some time.
   It would be unfair not to mention the statistics at the higher level
5. Only 2 sides have scored more goals from set pieces
6. Charlie Goode has more blocks and clearances than any other player in the division
I think point 6 is the result of point 3.
These Statistical facts point out Curles dreadful tactics and the fact we let the opposition have the ball for long periods where we chase after it, become tired, commit fouls and inevitably concede.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: SadOldGit on October 01, 2019, 13:05:40 pm
87% of statistics are bulls***e.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on October 01, 2019, 13:08:33 pm
91% of observations regarding statistics are distorted.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Melbourne Cobbler on October 01, 2019, 13:11:01 pm
There are some concerning statistics in the chron
1. We have the 4th lowest possession % in the division
2. We are 2nd lowest on passes completed
3. No team in the division have had more shots against them
4. Along with Oldham we have the most yellow cards. The number of stupid and avoidable yellow cards has       been a concern for some time.
   It would be unfair not to mention the statistics at the higher level
5. Only 2 sides have scored more goals from set pieces
6. Charlie Goode has more blocks and clearances than any other player in the division
Perhaps point 3 is contributing towards the apparent interest in Dai?


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Boot and shoe on October 01, 2019, 13:12:54 pm
As I have said on another thread , this just about underlines the type of side we are :
Direct , uncomplicated and strong armed .
Not sure itís the best for youth development and not likely to encourage attendances to increase beyond where they are currently.
But then we all know that already and to balance it off , performances at home have recently been more entertaining .


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: DrillingCobbler on October 01, 2019, 13:23:56 pm
I've got no problems with gaining yellow cards if it helps the greater cause. Think Lincoln under the Cowley brothers.

I've got no issue with having less possession. Leicester won the prem with an average of 40% - ours is still higher than that. Its what you do without the ball as much as what you do with the ball that counts, its a pointless stat in my opinion.

Likewise, shots on target, off target etc. A team can have a policy of taking pot shots from all over the place, their stats will look good, conversions less so. Etc.

The stat I saw that is relevant was the one where the chron says we've been in the lead during matches, considerably more than any other team in the division. Swindon were 2nd in that table, and literally miles behind.

The issue we have is clearly towards the end of matches.

Forget sacking Curle to rectify it. What we need is a new manager to take over after 70 minutes. His title could be 'Director of Substitutions and Game Management'. Curle can bugger off and sit in the stand at that point each game.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: 1971cobbler on October 01, 2019, 13:35:20 pm
There are some concerning statistics in the chron
1. We have the 4th lowest possession % in the division
2. We are 2nd lowest on passes completed
3. No team in the division have had more shots against them
4. Along with Oldham we have the most yellow cards. The number of stupid and avoidable yellow cards has       been a concern for some time.
   It would be unfair not to mention the statistics at the higher level
5. Only 2 sides have scored more goals from set pieces
6. Charlie Goode has more blocks and clearances than any other player in the division

Re point 3, just debating at what point Evers comes on with a triumphant fanfare to counter the argument that was posed about last season stats re shots versus conversion against Cornell?

 ;D


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: clarkeysntfc on October 01, 2019, 16:27:39 pm
Ultimately KC will keep the club in the league, and might have a dabble with 7th place if we are lucky. I thought we'd finish between 7th & 14th and I've not seen much to make me change my mind so far.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Deepcut Cobbler on October 01, 2019, 16:48:20 pm
A year ago today, KC joined the club. "I think we should be top, and I want to be top," said the Cobblers boss, who has managed 55 Cobblers games, winning 19, losing 16 and drawing 20 in all competitions during that time.


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: ClarenceInDefence on October 01, 2019, 16:56:56 pm
There are some concerning statistics in the chron
1. We have the 4th lowest possession % in the division
2. We are 2nd lowest on passes completed
3. No team in the division have had more shots against them
4. Along with Oldham we have the most yellow cards. The number of stupid and avoidable yellow cards has       been a concern for some time.
   It would be unfair not to mention the statistics at the higher level
5. Only 2 sides have scored more goals from set pieces
6. Charlie Goode has more blocks and clearances than any other player in the division

1. For context: Cobblers possession stat is 47%. For the 10 teams immediately above in the table there is only 1-2% difference in possession, these are negligible amounts. There are only 5 teams in the division who have over 50%. One of these 5 are Plymouth who are known for being a possession heavy side, and theirs is 54%. Top placed Exeter average 50% possession, while 6th place Newport have the worst stat with 45%.

2. Cobblers pass completion is 62%, the second lowest in the division. The lowest pass rate pass completion rate belongs to Newport with 60%. The third lowest rate belongs to Exeter with 63.6%.

3. We have had the second most attempt made on our goal, but are 12th in the able for shots on target against us with 43. For context, the side in 5th place have had 38 shots on target against them, a negligible difference.

4. I agree we are picking up too many silly yellow cards, hopefully our record here can improve. It's worth remembering though that we picked up 6 of these from the card happy Mr Breakspear, who has only managed 3 games in the division so far and has the worst card to game ratio of League 2 refs so far. Perhaps this has skewed the stats a bit against us? We have had 149 fouls given against us in total, the 7th worst record in the league. For context, the 15th worst record is only 10 less than us at 139, so again we are talking about relatively negligible differences.

A few more 'favourable' stats:

1. We have had the joint 7th highest number of attempts on target with 50. Crewe have made the most with 65, while second place Plymouth have only made 6 more than us with 56.

2. Cobblers are joint 15th in the 'Long Ball Per Game' stat, so it would seem our play is less 'direct' than the majority of teams in the division.

3. Despite missing some key players through injury, we are on a run of just 2 losses in 8 and are sitting only 7 points off top spot!

I think the last one is the most important at the moment!


Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: ClarenceInDefence on October 01, 2019, 17:09:16 pm
A year ago today, KC joined the club. "I think we should be top, and I want to be top," said the Cobblers boss, who has managed 55 Cobblers games, winning 19, losing 16 and drawing 20 in all competitions during that time.

Only 47 in the league though, no? W 17, D 17, L 12.

Since he has arrived we have won 69 points from 47, just shy of 1.5 points per game. If he can up this to a 1.6-1.7 ppg average we should make the play-offs this season.

We are also only 7 points off the top as it stands. It would only be fair to see where we finish with the team he has put together over the summer before coming to any judgements.



Title: Re: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations
Post by: Boot and shoe on October 02, 2019, 13:51:09 pm
1. For context: Cobblers possession stat is 47%. For the 10 teams immediately above in the table there is only 1-2% difference in possession, these are negligible amounts. There are only 5 teams in the division who have over 50%. One of these 5 are Plymouth who are known for being a possession heavy side, and theirs is 54%. Top placed Exeter average 50% possession, while 6th place Newport have the worst stat with 45%.

2. Cobblers pass completion is 62%, the second lowest in the division. The lowest pass rate pass completion rate belongs to Newport with 60%. The third lowest rate belongs to Exeter with 63.6%.

3. We have had the second most attempt made on our goal, but are 12th in the able for shots on target against us with 43. For context, the side in 5th place have had 38 shots on target against them, a negligible difference.

4. I agree we are picking up too many silly yellow cards, hopefully our record here can improve. It's worth remembering though that we picked up 6 of these from the card happy Mr Breakspear, who has only managed 3 games in the division so far and has the worst card to game ratio of League 2 refs so far. Perhaps this has skewed the stats a bit against us? We have had 149 fouls given against us in total, the 7th worst record in the league. For context, the 15th worst record is only 10 less than us at 139, so again we are talking about relatively negligible differences.

A few more 'favourable' stats:

1. We have had the joint 7th highest number of attempts on target with 50. Crewe have made the most with 65, while second place Plymouth have only made 6 more than us with 56.

2. Cobblers are joint 15th in the 'Long Ball Per Game' stat, so it would seem our play is less 'direct' than the majority of teams in the division.

3. Despite missing some key players through injury, we are on a run of just 2 losses in 8 and are sitting only 7 points off top spot!

I think the last one is the most important at the moment!
Point 2 - ď most long ball per game stat ď ..... what is this exactly ?