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41  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Cambridge Away 9th March on: March 09, 2024, 21:02:58 pm
First half was disappointing and we looked lacklustre, defence cut open far too easily for their goal and fortunately they missed a good chance immediately before the break. Second half we dominated and it was just a matter of time before we scored and after we appeared to be the only side likely to go and win.
42  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Cambridge Away 9th March on: March 08, 2024, 19:07:25 pm
After bringing back Hoskins, Sowerby and McWilliams on Tuesday none of which appeared to be near match fit it will be interesting to see JB's starting 11 tomorrow. Unless any of those 3 have drastically improved their fitness in the last few days I would leave them all on the bench. Haynes hardly ever makes the 18 man squad which leaves Lintott and Brough as our only fit full backs and both are better going forward than defending so I would play as wing backs with a back 3 and start with players who are fit.

                                                                                                                    Moulden

                                                            Sherring                                           Guthrie                                        Moore or Monthe

                    Lintott                                                                                                                                                                                                       Brough

                                              Hondermarck                              Fox                                         Leonard                                            Pinnock

                                                                                                                         Bowie

We now have conceded more away goals than any team in the division and starting with the Derby game we have conceded 28 goals in the last 11 away games (2.55 goals per game) while scoring 18. The last 6 away games have averaged almost 5 goals a game totalling 29 with 12 for and 17 against. Clearly a drastic improvement is needed at the back to get any points tomorrow but Cambridge don't score many. We also need to improve up front as our last 4 games has seen us manage a mere 8 attempts on target. We have a good record there and after the shambolic Tuesday night it would be good to maintain it.
43  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Cambridge Away 9th March on: March 08, 2024, 13:00:24 pm
Historically we just have the edge over Cambridge with 18 wins to their 16 and 14 draws but the unusual stat from these 48 games is that only 13 have been won by the home team including our victory over them earlier in the season. At Cambridge we have 11 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats but 4 of those defeats were in our last 6 visits, also in the 23 games we have only failed to score once.

Cambridge have lost their last 4 games and only 5 teams have scored fewer goals, they have 18 fewer goals than us but they have conceded 12 fewer. At home they have won 7, drawn 4 and lost 7 and in the 18 games they have only scored 16 goals but conceded only 19, they have never managed to score more than 2 which they have achieved 5 times and 7 times they have failed to score. Defensively they have kept 7 home clean sheets and only conceded more than once 5 times.

Leading goal scorers are Gassan Ahadme with 7 (10 in all comps.) and Fejiri Okenabirhie 5 (9) but neither are likely to play tomorrow as they are both injured. However, they do have Lyle Taylor who joined in January on a short term deal to the end of the season and he will be available tomorrow having served a 3 game ban during which Cambridge failed to score. They are of course desperate for points to avoid the drop after finishing in 20th place last season and this will be new manager Garry Monks first game back in management since the end of 2020.

Declan Bourne is the referee and in 19 games he has issued 85 yellows, 4 reds and awarded 4 penalties.
44  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Cambridge Away 9th March on: March 08, 2024, 07:40:24 am
With Willis out for another 2 weeks it will be interesting if JB plays Sherring at right back in a flat back 4 or if he reverts to 3 centre backs with wing backs. Lintott is now our only fit right back so I imagine it would be him and Brough as wing backs.
45  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: The Nene Derby part 2 05.03.24 on: March 07, 2024, 10:03:59 am
I think this could all be sorted out behind the bike sheds at lunchtime.
46  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: The Nene Derby part 2 05.03.24 on: March 06, 2024, 11:57:49 am
Who are you going to replace Brough with as according to JB McGowan, Odimayo and Koiki are not likely to return before the end of the month?
Could again revert to the disliked 3 centre back option with Monthe on the left side, he rarely features now but has done ok when he has come on. Brough can then play wing back where he is better going forward.
47  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: The Nene Derby part 2 05.03.24 on: March 06, 2024, 11:18:45 am
We have been quite poor for the last 4 games
Oxford - we hardly deserved a point but fortunately they also had an off night and hardly deserved to win.
Burton - after their first 15-20 minute bombardment they gifted us 2 goals and as they were so poor the result was not in doubt. It was disappointing we had chances in the second half to double our score and didn't take them.
Charlton - gifted the goal but didn't start playing until the 80th minute when although they were not great they could have been further ahead.
Peterborough - after taking an early lead against the run of play and keeping our shape once they equalised we were just plain awful.

On a brighter note in these 4 games it appears we were clinical in front of goal as we scored 75% of our efforts on target, but we only had a total of 8 efforts on target and 3 of the 6 goals were gifts. Averaging 2 efforts on target per game is nowhere near enough.
48  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Cambridge Away 9th March on: March 06, 2024, 08:10:15 am
We have usually bounced back from a heavy defeat with a good performance and now we have to do it again. It may depend on how much it took out of the players chasing the ball last night and Cambridge having a free week, they also have a new manager to impress. Having collected another yellow card last night if Bowie gets another in this game he will be suspended for 2 games so he needs to tread carefully but after this game he will be clear, I wonder if JB will be ultra cautious and leave him on the bench.
49  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: The Nene Derby part 2 05.03.24 on: March 06, 2024, 08:04:20 am
I was afraid this would happen as we were tore apart with their pace and movement and fortunately it didn't get any worse in the final 30 minutes, perhaps for next seasons fixture we had all better stay at home?
On paper the starting 11 looked to be the strongest team we could field given our lack of available full backs but I was surprised McWilliams was selected as he was clearly off the pace on Saturday and he was rightly withdrawn at half time along with Sowerby. I won't criticise Hondermarck's first half display at right back as he was playing out of position and his recent midfield displays have been good. Appere and Springett when they came on were both better than what had gone before, Simpson did nothing until 1 late run, Monthe diid little wrong, too early to comment on Moore.
Obviously as we can now see JB got the starting line up wrong and it would have been better to start with Sherring at right back and Fox in midfield with Hondermarck and Leonard but we would still have been beaten but maybe not so heavily. Only the bottom 3 teams have now conceded more goals than us.
50  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: The Nene Derby part 2 05.03.24 on: March 05, 2024, 07:46:40 am
I would agree that Simpson is quick, maybe slightly quicker than Hoskins, and it is good to see that he has finally shown his capabilities after months of being off the pace and posters calling for him to be sent back in the January transfer window. He was not creating opportunities for Bowie during that period and Bowie was equally effective then. Bowie would also have more goals if he wasn't regularly played out wide.
Simpson was quite easily shackled by the Charlton centre backs and in the last 3 games has managed very few shots at goal and I feel that Hoskins is more likely to score than he is but he would be useful to bring off the bench when the Posh defence is tiring.
51  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: The Nene Derby part 2 05.03.24 on: March 04, 2024, 16:12:21 pm
I think it depends on which Posh team turns up. They recently lost 4 consecutive games conceding 12 goals against teams they would mostly expect to beat, at home to Wigan 2-3 and Blackpool 1-2 and away at Exeter 1-2 and Wycombe 2-5. They have won 2 league games since by a single goal 1-0 at Cambridge and 2-1 at home to Exeter. Historically we have 22 wins to their 34 with 19 draws and at London Road we have 9 wins, 8 draws and 20 defeats.

Only Barnsley have scored more goals than Posh but none of the top 6 have conceded more. At home Posh have won 9, drawn 4 and lost 3 scoring 36 (over 2 goals per game and scored in every game) and conceding 18, in theses 16 games they have scored 2 goals or more 13 times. They have 7 home clean sheets but none in the last 6 games and have conceded 2 or more goals 6 times 4 of these in the last 6 games.

Leading scorer Ephron Mason-Clark they sold to Coventry in the transfer window for a reported £5million with Coventry agreeing to pay a lower price so Posh could have him back on loan to the end of the season.

Willis went off injured at half time on Saturday so we have to hope he has recovered, McWilliams did not look up to speed and I would play Sowerby instead and I would start with Hoskins instead of Simpson. It is unlikely we will keep a clean sheet but we need to keep it tight at the back and improve of our recent record of only 7 shots on target in the last 3 games. I think this game goes into the "travel more in hope than expectation" category.
52  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: The Nene Derby part 2 05.03.24 on: March 04, 2024, 07:42:10 am
Despite not seeing much "fluid football" recently our record over the last 4 games is WDWD, now wouldn't it be nice to extend that sequence tomorrow night but I think we will need a big uptick in performance to achieve it.
53  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Charlton Sat 2nd March. on: March 03, 2024, 18:25:11 pm
I think this points won and goals scored with Hoskins in or out of the team is becoming a bit irrelevant as it is open to different interpretations. The Oxford and Charlton games will go down as 2 draws and 2 points gained because Hoskins was not in the starting 11 but if he had not come off the bench and influenced the game to set up our equalizers both games would have been losses so you could argue that both of these games should be put in the "Hoskins in" bracket with 2 points gained. However, as he played less than half of each game the 2 points gained may have been 6 if he had played from the start so people will take which ever view suits their opinion of the player.

Hypothetically we could be losing 0-2 with 15 minutes to play but then Hoskins comes on and scores a hat trick and we win 3-2 but because he was not in the starting 11 under the interpretation being administered the game would be logged as 3 points gained without him which is ridiculous.
54  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Charlton Sat 2nd March. on: March 03, 2024, 16:25:09 pm
Evers, there was no way I could see us scoring until we were gifted the goal. Their keeper had the effort covered that hit the post, I one into the side netting he was on the touch line and the better option was to pull the ball back into the penalty area and Sowerby’s shot was always going over and the keeper had it covered. Charlton looked more like scoring than we did.

Regarding if we are better with or without Hoskins we has twice come off the bench to influence games and turn losses into draws. He should be reinstated to the starting 11.
55  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Charlton Sat 2nd March. on: March 03, 2024, 11:16:10 am
No sign of any fluidity yesterday.
JB's latest injury update said he wasn't expecting McGowan, Odimayo or Koiki to be back until the end of March.
56  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Charlton Sat 2nd March. on: March 03, 2024, 10:18:06 am
If I was a Charlton supporter I would have left the ground perplexed as to how we had not taken the 3 points. We had several chances to clear the ball before they scored their early goal but failed to do so and although Charlton were not that good they moved the ball around better than we did and we misplaced so many passes. Alfie May should have scored when he hit the woodwork and at least twice the ball came across our box and only needed a touch to increase their lead whereas we were creating nothing. The defence kept us in the game and after being gifted the equaliser we suddenly came to life.
You have to remember that Charlton have conceded more goals than most this season and in 17 away games had only kept 1 clean sheet yet their defence barely broke sweat keeping us at bay. Simpson won very little ball and Bowie was not effective as he usually is.
We were gifted the goal yesterday, we were gifted both goals at Burton and in the last 3 games we have only had a total of 7 shots on target. I think Hoskins has to be in the starting 11 at Peterborough with Bowie replacing Simpson down the middle, both times Hoskins has come off the bench he has been instrumental in winning us equalising goals.
57  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Charlton Sat 2nd March. on: March 02, 2024, 18:56:06 pm
Not sure if we deserved a point or not as we seemed devoid of ideas for much of the game and only came to life when gifted the equaliser, Charlton were a little better but not great. Disappointing to go behind so early in the game after so many failed attempts to get the ball clear and I was pleased to be only 1 down at HT and was expecting JB to have sorted them out and we would get at them in the second half. But there was no improvement and Charlton looked more likely to score again than we did.
After almost making a mess of trying to play the ball out of defence we go up the other end and Charlton do exactly the same and that looked like the only way we were going to score. I can't recall either 'keeper making a good save and Guthrie and Sherring were pretty solid at the heart of the defence, Leonard was clearly targeted and we counted him being brought down 20 times.
We will need a vast improvement on this performance to bring any points home on Tuesday night.
58  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Players Under & Out of Contract on: March 02, 2024, 11:27:41 am
Ian Henderson played 26 games without scoring.
59  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Charlton Sat 2nd March. on: March 01, 2024, 11:12:49 am
I am not saying that I expect all three to start but perhaps 1 or 2 could. Fox has been playing the defensive midfield role and usually has been subbed after 60 minutes but I suppose it depends if Sowerby is considered fit enough to also play about 60 minutes. Hondermarck is having his best spell for us and having had a run of games seems to be improving with games played and it would be tough on him to leave him out.
If JB decides to bring back Hoskins I think Pinnock will keep his place and he is our only player to start every game so far, so either Bowie or Simpson would have to give way which is a difficult choice but I prefer to see Bowie play down the middle instead of out wide.
60  The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Charlton Sat 2nd March. on: March 01, 2024, 10:18:23 am
I think referee Martin Woods is one of the better referees we get in division 1. I thought he handled our game against Posh well and before that we had him for our final game of last season at Tranmere when again he had a good game. On the Oxford forum they have a "rate the ref" thread and last Saturday Woods was in charge of their game against Orient and the Oxford fans rated him very favourably without a single negative post. Having now praised him before the game I hope he doesn't let me down but if there are any contentious decisions they go in our favour.

Only 4 teams have fewer away points than Charlton but as GPC points out they have only lost 7 of their 17 away games. In these 17 games they have scored more than once 5 times and failed to score 5 times but they have conceded more than once 9 times and only kept 1 clean sheet so it will be disappointing if we fail to find the back of the net. Also only 3 teams in the division have conceded more goals.

As GPC says Alfie May is easily their top scorer with 17 league goals and 21 in all competitions, he also mentions Corey Blackett Taylor having 9 goals but we need not worry about him as he joined Derby in January. It is surprising they are so low in the table with the players they have and they were reported to have paid about £1millioon when they signed Connor Coventry from West Ham and we mustn't let him run the midfield. In 18 home fixtures we have 8 wins to Charlton's 6 with 4 draws but we have only won 1 of the last 6.

We have fielded an unchanged team for the last 3 games and the back 4 will probably be the same given the lack of options but I would not be surprised if either Sowerby, McWilliams or Hoskins made the starting 11.
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