Blimey C78, four days before you worked out where that last piece went. Must have been a toughie.

Home 'bankers' Wimbledon Rochdale and Bury. 
I think it's fair to say I'd have been massively impressed had we picked up an additional seven points from those three games on top of the solitary one we got against Bury. 

Really? 3 of the most winnable games of the season, I don’t understand your thinking, maybe you’re just easily impressed.

Latest update before the easier game at Wimbledon.

Vs Top: Played 16, 14pts, 0.875 points per game, projection 21pts
Vs Bottom: Played 15, 19pts, 1.267 points per game, projection 28pts

Total projection 49pts

Still hoping for 60points, will be tough though as we’ve dropped 8 points in home bankers vs Bury, Wimbledon and Rochdale and only had 1 miracle result away at Bradford, hopefully a few more miracle results will even this up.

What would you do if you sat next to a man on the bus and he turned to you and said “the moons made of cheese”. Would you say “how interesting”’and change seats? Or alternatively would you lecture the bloke on physics, geology, NASA and show him pictures of Neil Armstrong etc to the point of obsession until he concedeeds he was wrong? Great fun for everyone else on the bus though?

I’d nod politely and maybe move away from Rambo at the next stop.

Meh.

I said I wouldn't do this but....

C78, you are either word blind, stupid or just here to wind people up. There are no fools (well.....) We've all agreed that at the end of the season, logically we SHOULD have collected more points against lower placed teams. That is not and never has been a bone of contention. You can let this bit go - really, you can.

I don't subscribe to a simplistic "one game is easier than another" so I'm not even contesting that either.

Please..... PLEASE.... see that where the disagreement lies is in how you are making your projections - you are moving teams positions around after the fact to obtain past performance and using a very raw and simplistic method to predict future results. I think in truth you have realised it is flawed in but are either too proud to admit that there may be a better way to formulate such a projection or you just like being obstinate and fishing for replies.

Either way, it comes across as annoying.

Deja vu x25...

Can you not at least concede this last fact?

It’s the way I’m doing it mate, if you don’t like it, tough.

You see it Rambo, everyone sees it. 78 knows it, he's not stupid and even knows what a # is but you're 40 odd pages in. Even if we end up having more points against the top half at the end of the season, it will be deemed 'unusual' so there is no end point to the debate either way. It'd start again next year and before you know it we'd be on the best of three.

Not true, if we get more points at the end of the season vs top half teams than against bottom half then I’ll happily admit that I’m wrong and have been a fool. When this doesn’t happen will you do the same?

We're not great at the moment, we'll most likely do better against teams around or below us as opposed to those well above.

You are correct.

C78....

You need to let this go until after the last game of the season as your whole theory depends on knowing where everyone finishes.

If however, you do wish to see how we've fared against teams "in running" you need to do it properly and base our performances against where the opposition were at the time we played them as otherwise your musings are meaningless.

If you could just accept that, in the same way that everyone accepts your basic concept regarding end of season, all would be well

I don’t need to to anything mate! Any chance of reminding me of the facts as we currently stand though? No? I thought not.

Well? Anyone able to provide the current numbers to prove my point? (yet again)

Well the author is conspicuous in their absence. Maybe now the penny is finally dropping that when it comes to determining whether games are easier or not, there's a lot more to it than looking at the current league position of the opposition.

Remind me of the points per game when comparing top vs bottom half.

Apologies, I’d like to say I’ve been dragged down to your level, truth is, I’m very very drunk!

Just goes to show there are no easier games in this league. Oh hang on, I must be in the wrong thread.

Absolutely baffling. I’m away at the moment so unable to update the stats, however, I guarantee we’ve still got more points against the easier teams than the harder teams.

Ok... here's a few for you...

If we play a team in October and they are 6th you count this as a hard game, correct?

If they then drop to 16th, you change your previous assessment and make it an easy game, correct?

Do you agree with the statement that a game cannot be hard one week, then change to easy after it has been played?

If you answer yes to all three, can you see how rubbish your projections are?

Note: I am not disagreeing that we will probably have taken more points from the teams that FINISH in the bottom half come SEASON END.

So the big question...

When you make a statement that there are EASIER games to come you are basing that on the teams position in the table AS WE ARE ABOUT TO PLAY THEM. Do you not agree then that to judge how we will do in these games, your "previous history stats" HAVE to be based using the same condition, ie. BASED ON THE POSITION WHEN WE PLAYED?

Sorry to shout but thought a little extra emphasis may focus you

I do say yes to each question. Now what are you going to do? Especially as I’ve been proved to be correct.

TBF he's got 45 pages and counting out of this sh*t, so he's a prize wind up merchant. The conviction and stubbornness of those arguing is just as funny. Sometimes it is better to know you are right and walk away with some people.

Agreed! But it’s nice to spread a bit of knowledge also.

Only in your world is there a difference between projection and prediction. Check your thesaurus.

Wow

What is the simple direct question I’m being accused of dodging?

With all the chat of stats and facts, the more interesting thread has fallen under the radar. These really are great stats and shows why the players were released.

The results for bottom of the league Bury for the current season

 

Opponent	Home	Away
Wigan		L
Shrewsbury	W
Blackburn	L
Sc***horpe	L	L
Bradford	W
Rotherham	L	L
Charlton	L	D
Peterborough		L
Portsmouth		L
Gillingham		D
Bristol Rovers	L
Oxford	W	W
Plymouth	D	L
Doncaster	L
Fleetwood	L	L
Wimbledon
Southend		L
Walsall	W
Blackpool		L
Northampton		D
MK Dons	L
Oldham		L
Rochdale		D

Note they have yet to play Wimbledon.

Of the 16 games against the top 12 opponents they have gained 14 (6 of them against Oxford), averaging 0.9 pts / game.

Of the 12 games against the rest they have secured 6 pts at 0.5 pts a game.

No evidence there then that games against the top half teams (as the league table currently stands) are proving any more difficult for them.
Are we to deduce that Bury will take 7 pts from the remaining 8 games against the top sides and just 5pts from the remaining 10 games against the supposed easier sides, making a prediction of 32pts at the end of the season ?

Of course if Oxford were to lose their next game away at Charlton, highly likely on their current form, and slip into the bottom half of the table and Bury were to beat Blackpool at home on Saturday then suddenly it will all change with possibly 8 from 15 from the top half and 15 from 14 from the bottom half (assuming Doncaster replace Oxford in the top half)

Good stats, a very odd set of results.

OK then C78 - let's use your own numbers to quantify this "easier" statement.

6 points in 6 games, nice and easy, 1 point per game = 46 points for the season - probable relegation (historically - I know you like your historical "facts")

27 points in 24 games is 1.125 points per game = 51.75 points for the season - marginal survival.

Neither are near your 60 point projection so not sure how you get to that. All your facts only get us to around 52 points, even using the top half / bottom half, 24 x 0.875 + 22 x 1.375 theory, its still 52 points (well 51.75 to be precise).  It's only 51 points if you consider we only got 6 points from the first six games.

These are YOUR numbers, YOUR facts.

But.... with regard to the "easier" statement. We've improved by 0.125 points per game since after the first 6 games when you started that. If that persists, that's FIVE whole points across the remaining 40 games. Do you really think that constitutes "easier" games?

And by the way - I'm using your basic methodology for these calculations, where games change from hard to easy and vice versa. I'm not going to quibble over using the proper league positions at the time the game was played because we've already seen that although more correct, it doesn't actually make a huge difference.

For once, just answer the direct questions put to you instead of swerving, deflecting or resorting to name calling. People might actually find some respect for you then...

Oh dear, prediction and projection are two different things.

'Bucked trend', what's that got to do with anything?
Your over complicating things 

Your opening post reads,
'Easier games to come'
Yet the simplest fact is,
24 matches after your assertion we now have 33points/30games compared to the 6points/6games we had back then.

So I'll ask you to explain again.
What happened to those easier games?

Erm we got 27 points in 24 games, which is better than 6 points in 6 games. That simple enough for you?

He's  rattled! Spelling mistakes in every response now....

I doubt he even realises the absurdity of his posts.

The absurdity of facts you mean?