Wilder's dilemma: Toney and/or O'Toole?

[bungle]

After four games we find ourselves in mid table with 5 points. It's early days, and it has to be said that in York, Portsmouth and Shrewsbury we've faced three of the division's strongest sides. Barring a few sloppy goals, the defence looks fairly solid and it's good to see that CW has acknowledged Alfei's poor form by recalling Tozer at full back. In this respect we're light years ahead of where we were last year.

However, notwithstanding the slightly fortuitous goal fest at Wolves, it's obvious to everyone that the big problem remains creating chances and scoring goals. Here's my take on it:

1. Wilder needs to work out how to get the best out of O'Toole


The signing of O'Toole came as a bit of a shock. I get the impression that CW would have gone for a fairly conventional 4-4-2 had JJ O'T not been available. The man is a fairly unique player at this level: an attacking no.10 type who is at his best when he's operating as a sort of deep lying second striker. The problem is that playing him makes 4-4-2 virtually impossible. CW's solution, in pre-season and against Mansfield, was to play 4-5-1, with Carter and Ravenhill as deep-lying midfielders.

The major problem with this, of course, is that Carter and Ravenhill are perhaps the two players in the squad for whom we have no ready replacements, meaning that we've been unable to play CW's preferred 4-5-1 during Carter's absence. The signing of  Byrom seemed to suggest a return to 4-5-1, but puzzlingly CW reverted back to 4-4-2. The result? 44% of possession and only 4 shots on target against a side who had 10 men for 60 minutes. This will keep happening every time O'Toole is played as a conventional CM.

IMO, for the time being Wilder needs to stick with 4-5-1/4-4-1-1 with O'Toole in the hole behind Richards/Toney. If it worked against Wolves then it can work against League Two opposition. If O'Toole doesn't start producing the business (i.e. goals and/or assists) then drop him, change the system and go back to 4-4-2.



2. Toney is not the messiah. He's just a [very] promising boy.

Ivan Toney is clearly an excellent prospect: he's quick, unpredictable and good in the air. However, he is not the finished article yet and people need to get a bit more realistic in their expectations of him. Personally I'd alternate him with Richards as the lone striker in the 4-5-1 or bring him on at around the 60 minute mark in place of O'Toole. The problem as with last season is not that the strikers are missing chances; it is rather that the midfield is imbalanced and is not creating enough.


Personally, as I've already intimated, I don't think that Richards, Toney and O'Toole can be accommodated in the same team.



Anyway, that's just my two pennies worth. It's nice to have these selection dilemmas rather than desperately waiting for Clive Platt to return to full fitness! Exeter at home should be an opportunity for our attacking options to click into place. Soon we'll be get more an indication whether we've got the firepower to mount a genuine challenge this season.

[Alwaysdark]

Moyo.

[DrillingCobbler]

As usual I agree with Bungle...

What we all said in the pub today on hearing the team was that Wilder had shown his entire hand and it could well backfire...and it did. We basically had to go backwards with the subs in the second half. The team that started was essentially a side chasing a game with 10 minutes to spare.

JJ needs to play in the whole, end of. Whether that's in a wing back system or 4-4-1-1 that's debateable...but his inclusion in a 4-4-2 not only makes him ineffective but it also in-balances the entire midfield, and effects our creativity.

For the time being I would like to see what bungle suggests...4-4-1-1 with the striker rotated.

The cars still on the ramp at the moment. Wilders job over the next 3-4 weeks is too fix it using the parts he's already got, something that Terry Angus basically said. Fine tuning needed...

[j20cobbler]

You can't rotate Richards and Toney. This is Northampton we are talking about... You select your best and get on with, whoever that is. Or you play two up front from those avaliable.

[defender]

After four games we find ourselves in mid table with 5 points. It's early days, and it has to be said that in York, Portsmouth and Shrewsbury we've faced three of the division's strongest sides. Barring a few sloppy goals, the defence looks fairly solid and it's good to see that CW has acknowledged Alfei's poor form by recalling Tozer at full back. In this respect we're light years ahead of where we were last year.

However, notwithstanding the slightly fortuitous goal fest at Wolves, it's obvious to everyone that the big problem remains creating chances and scoring goals. Here's my take on it:

1. Wilder needs to work out how to get the best out of O'Toole


The signing of O'Toole came as a bit of a shock. I get the impression that CW would have gone for a fairly conventional 4-4-2 had JJ O'T not been available. The man is a fairly unique player at this level: an attacking no.10 type who is at his best when he's operating as a sort of deep lying second striker. The problem is that playing him makes 4-4-2 virtually impossible. CW's solution, in pre-season and against Mansfield, was to play 4-5-1, with Carter and Ravenhill as deep-lying midfielders.

The major problem with this, of course, is that Carter and Ravenhill are perhaps the two players in the squad for whom we have no ready replacements, meaning that we've been unable to play CW's preferred 4-5-1 during Carter's absence. The signing of  Byrom seemed to suggest a return to 4-5-1, but puzzlingly CW reverted back to 4-4-2. The result? 44% of possession and only 4 shots on target against a side who had 10 men for 60 minutes. This will keep happening every time O'Toole is played as a conventional CM.

IMO, for the time being Wilder needs to stick with 4-5-1/4-4-1-1 with O'Toole in the hole behind Richards/Toney. If it worked against Wolves then it can work against League Two opposition. If O'Toole doesn't start producing the business (i.e. goals and/or assists) then drop him, change the system and go back to 4-4-2.



2. Toney is not the messiah. He's just a [very] promising boy.

Ivan Toney is clearly an excellent prospect: he's quick, unpredictable and good in the air. However, he is not the finished article yet and people need to get a bit more realistic in their expectations of him. Personally I'd alternate him with Richards as the lone striker in the 4-5-1 or bring him on at around the 60 minute mark in place of O'Toole. The problem as with last season is not that the strikers are missing chances; it is rather that the midfield is imbalanced and is not creating enough.


Personally, as I've already intimated, I don't think that Richards, Toney and O'Toole can be accommodated in the same team.



Anyway, that's just my two pennies worth. It's nice to have these selection dilemmas rather than desperately waiting for Clive Platt to return to full fitness! Exeter at home should be an opportunity for our attacking options to click into place. Soon we'll be get more an indication whether we've got the firepower to mount a genuine challenge this season.

Good post, I do like the last paragraph. 

[bungle]

You can't rotate Richards and Toney. This is Northampton we are talking about... You select your best and get on with it

As Drilling suggests, Wilder 'selected his best' yesterday and ended up showing his hand too early. According to the BBC we had 44% possession and four shots on target against a side with ten men. Ivan Toney might be a 'better' footballer from a technical standpoint than Ricky Ravenhill, but IMO RR would have contributed a lot more over the 90 minutes in terms of improving those statistics. Neither Toney, Richards or O'Toole are going to score goals if they are forced to feed off scraps from an overrun midfield.

I've said before that the way Wilder handles O'Toole would define our season. For me it boils down to this: either O'Toole starts producing in a 4-4-1-1 or we drop him and start playing 4-4-2. At the moment, CW is trying to have his cake and eat it; he needs to decide on his system and stick with it. 

[Coolcat]

Think JJT is getting better and being more influential with each game. Speaking to a Pompey fan back in Oxford last night, who felt the Cobblers had played really well down there Tue night and commented especially on JJT's performance.

Still not sure on Toney...will get better and stronger in stature, go on to better things...or fade away like Glenville Donegal?

[guest47]

I thought JJoT was more adventurous against Pompey, he kept doing simple short passes yesterday when he's there to provide the through ball. He had plenty of opportunities to do that.

Toney needs a goal soonish to match his efforts otherwise unfortunate comparisons with Courtney Herbert are going to arise - and he's better than that.

[Coolcat]

I thought JJoT was more adventurous against Pompey, he kept doing simple short passes yesterday when he's there to provide the through ball. He had plenty of opportunities to do that.

Toney needs a goal soonish to match his efforts otherwise unfortunate comparisons with Courtney Herbert are going to arise - and he's better than that.

Le waif d' Banbury? 

[guest47]

Le waif d' Banbury? 

or Le coeur de Cogenhoe?

[HertsCobbler]

I would like to see us try a 4-2-3-1 style formation..

You would have Ravenhill, Byrom holding.   Play Rico up top, with O'Toole behind assisted by 2 from Hackett/Toney/Mohamed/D'ath

I think it would be great to be in a position if things are not working to throw on Hackett or Mohamed etc as this will keep the opposition on their toes.

[j20cobbler]

As Drilling suggests, Wilder 'selected his best' yesterday and ended up showing his hand too early. According to the BBC we had 44% possession and four shots on target against a side with ten men. Ivan Toney might be a 'better' footballer from a technical standpoint than Ricky Ravenhill, but IMO RR would have contributed a lot more over the 90 minutes in terms of improving those statistics. Neither Toney, Richards or O'Toole are going to score goals if they are forced to feed off scraps from an overrun midfield.

I've said before that the way Wilder handles O'Toole would define our season. For me it boils down to this: either O'Toole starts producing in a 4-4-1-1 or we drop him and start playing 4-4-2. At the moment, CW is trying to have his cake and eat it; he needs to decide on his system and stick with it. 

Tactics and formations are an entirely different issue.
My point was, If Richards and Toney are considered by CW as strikers with similar roles who lead the line and only one is required, then you don't rotate, you play your best, and its the managers job to decide who that is.
I don't think anyone would argue for goalkeeper rotation because of the merits of the opposition.