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Penalties

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Author Topic: Penalties  (Read 4571 times)
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everbrite
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« Reply #20 on: February 08, 2015, 20:15:58 pm »

Guess if penalties were just such an easy nailed on thing...we wouldn't have penalty shootouts as deciders at all...Worcester v Scunny scenarios would certainly be pretty common place!
Still, I don't know, whenever the Cobbs get a pen, superstition gets the better of me and I look away! No idea what direction they're placed!  Grin

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« Reply #21 on: February 08, 2015, 21:30:19 pm »

I knew he was going to miss it when I saw the two people either side of me videoing the peno on their phones.

Why do people do that? I've always been interested to know why people feel the need to do this at football matches. If you are one of them, please tell me  Tongue

Why does anybody ever video anything? Presumably so they have something they can look at when they want, same as photos I guess.
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« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2015, 00:09:54 am »

Had you said most, even 95% I might have agreed. But 100% is factually incorrect.

I hope Jolly Cobbler isn't reading this - I've already had his considered expertise on the difference between "most" and "majority" - introducing 3 options here will have him over excited and quite possibly tears before bedtime..........
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« Reply #23 on: February 09, 2015, 08:25:28 am »

That pretty much backs up what I read, the graph of the goal shows all but one of the penalties in the top third counted.

100% Huh?
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« Reply #24 on: February 09, 2015, 08:36:03 am »

Hit it hard and make the keeper save it...
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« Reply #25 on: February 09, 2015, 09:52:59 am »

I don't know why people can't grasp the concept of 100%.

In the study I read where a professor looked at all the penalties from one division throughout an entire season ALL the penalties that were placed in the top third of the goal were converted. THAT is 100%!

Somebody else has now posted the results of a DIFFERENT study where on one occasion a penalty struck into the top third of the goal was saved, all others were scored. That's why I wrote "that pretty much backs up what I read" rather than say that entirely backs up what I read.

Seriously, this isn't difficult to understand.
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« Reply #26 on: February 09, 2015, 10:10:53 am »

I read a book called Why do England always lose at penalties which covered all this kind of stuff along with other things like How much does it matter just who the manager is ( not much it turns out)
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« Reply #27 on: February 09, 2015, 10:28:26 am »

I don't know why people can't grasp the concept of 100%.

In the study I read where a professor looked at all the penalties from one division throughout an entire season ALL the penalties that were placed in the top third of the goal were converted. THAT is 100%!

Somebody else has now posted the results of a DIFFERENT study where on one occasion a penalty struck into the top third of the goal was saved, all others were scored. That's why I wrote "that pretty much backs up what I read" rather than say that entirely backs up what I read.

Seriously, this isn't difficult to understand.
That is because for a very short period of time, the ball can resist gravity more easily than a 120 kg keeper. Of course gravity will pull us all down eventually. It may be a weak force, but it is very, very persistent
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« Reply #28 on: February 09, 2015, 10:36:23 am »

120kg  Shocked Shocked
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« Reply #29 on: February 09, 2015, 10:40:26 am »

Would a 120 kilo keeper be able to dive in the first place?  Grin
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« Reply #30 on: February 09, 2015, 11:08:06 am »

I don't know why people can't grasp the concept of 100%.

In the study I read where a professor looked at all the penalties from one division throughout an entire season ALL the penalties that were placed in the top third of the goal were converted. THAT is 100%!

Somebody else has now posted the results of a DIFFERENT study where on one occasion a penalty struck into the top third of the goal was saved, all others were scored. That's why I wrote "that pretty much backs up what I read" rather than say that entirely backs up what I read.

Seriously, this isn't difficult to understand.

But what use is it if it's unobtainable??
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« Reply #31 on: February 09, 2015, 11:39:49 am »

What is unobtainable?
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« Reply #32 on: February 09, 2015, 12:03:40 pm »

I think Marvo's absolutely right - if you can put the ball in the top 1/3 then you would expect to score. But what I haven't seen yet are the percentages missed (i.e hit the bar or went over) when going high - I'd assume that those that 'Hacketted' the ball over the bar were going for the top 1/3 too. If you miss the target when going for the top 1/3 10% of the time then you may still have the same success rate as going for the 'safer' bottom 2/3. I've plucked these figures out of thin air, of course, but we need to see the bigger picture to get the full story of whether it is statistically better to aim for the top 1/3 than not.
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« Reply #33 on: February 09, 2015, 13:08:43 pm »

Apparently generally 80% of penalty kicks are scored. There is one interesting factor -  players under 23 score 85% and those over over 29 just 79%. You would have thought it was the other way round.

Please don't call them penalty kicks. It is football, we all know it's a kick. This only came into being for the dumb septics when they hosted the World cup along with corner kicks.
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« Reply #34 on: February 09, 2015, 13:17:57 pm »

Obviously you have to take into account how good the keeper is.
Paul Cooper of Ipswich in the late seventies early eighties had an 80% save rate. I saw him years later on the TV and he said he used to stand slightly to one side of the goal and the majority of the time the penalty taker would subconsciously shoot at the larger open target, so Cooper had a good chance of diving the correct way.
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« Reply #35 on: February 09, 2015, 13:33:47 pm »

Maybe show the percentage of people who tried to find the top third of the net and those who actually hit it.

It could be that 3000 people have tried, 2990 have missed the target but the 10 that hit the top third scored. Meaning 100% who hit the top third scored.

The theory is its harder for a goalkeeper to get down, if you missed the top third and are hitting the middle of the net then thats the best area for it to hit some part of the keeper.
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« Reply #36 on: February 09, 2015, 16:44:20 pm »

Obviously you have to take into account how good the keeper is.
Paul Cooper of Ipswich in the late seventies early eighties had an 80% save rate. I saw him years later on the TV and he said he used to stand slightly to one side of the goal and the majority of the time the penalty taker would subconsciously shoot at the larger open target, so Cooper had a good chance of diving the correct way.
What about Harvey's penalty save ratio for the Cobblers when we went up from the old division 2 in 1965?
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« Reply #37 on: February 09, 2015, 20:34:28 pm »

I read a book called Why do England always lose at penalties which covered all this kind of stuff along with other things like How much does it matter just who the manager is ( not much it turns out)

Assuming you mean 'Why England Lose'  it's a great book and rubbishes a lot of the myths that are regularly trotted out about football.
There's also 'Inverting the Pyramid' which is a bit more nerdy and goes into the history of tactics. Herbert Chapman gets plenty of credit.
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« Reply #38 on: February 09, 2015, 21:23:16 pm »

Baggio missed quite an important one. He was a professional footballer too.
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« Reply #39 on: February 09, 2015, 22:08:52 pm »

Please don't call them penalty kicks. It is football, we all know it's a kick. This only came into being for the dumb septics when they hosted the World cup along with corner kicks.

Good point and I won't let it happen again.

My favourite bugbear is when a manager or player says something like "I want to what's best for xxxx football club" and says the full name of his club. Just to make sure we don't get confused into thinking he wants to do what's best for some other club.
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