Relegation Watch

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CobblerTilIDie

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Re: Relegation Watch

« Reply #40 on: March 06, 2017, 13:03:24 pm »

So having looked at the fixtures I have come to the following conclusion:

Cov and Chesterfield are down - even if they aren't down, I can't see them catching us.

Therefore we need 2 other teams to also finish below us... step forward Port Vale and Swindon. Assuming we avoid defeat against Vale next week, I believe that a total as low as 48 points will be enough to stay up this season (I believe 47 was enough last year).

Swindon have a horrible run of games coming up, after they play Vale at the weekend they have Sheff U, Bradford, Millwall & Fleetwood to play - they will do well to pick up any points in those games - therefore I'd like to think we will have moved further than the current 7 points clear of them. At that point we will be down to 5 games left to play - I'm confident they will be left with far too many points to overturn in such few games.

Port Vale may have games in hand, but they are in a horrible run of form (even we drew at Southend!). Even if they do manage to heroically turn their season around and claw back the current 8 points between us... they finish the season against Sheff U, Oxford away, Bolton at home and Fleetwood away.

That's ignoring the other 5 teams between us and the drop zone who also need to out-perform us over the run-in.

(The key games feels like Vale next Tuesday - if we can beat them the job will be all but done with plenty of games still to play).


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