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Relegation Watch

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Author Topic: Relegation Watch  (Read 61118 times)
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« Reply #1220 on: April 14, 2018, 21:09:20 pm »

Lee Nicholls out for the season - MK Dons

Ian Henderson to serve 4 match ban (2nd sending off) - Rochdale

Miombe sent off (3 match ban?) - Oldham

Still a few twists and turns to come, but the pressure is still on us to win all our remaining games.




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« Reply #1221 on: April 14, 2018, 23:04:09 pm »

Skybet are offering 9/1 for us to stay up. This is basically a rip off considering we are generally 1/33 to be relegated.
Punters have assumed it's us, Bury and MK for the drop and take your pick from Rochdale, Oldham, Wombles, Poxford and Walsall for the fourth spot. It looks like musical chairs for that one.
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« Reply #1222 on: April 15, 2018, 14:03:04 pm »

Still a few twists and turns to come, but the pressure is still on us to win all our remaining games.

It's a exponentially huge ask, but history would suggest that 52 points would be enough to stay up. It would rely on two of Rochdale, Wombles, Oxford, Oldham and Walsall grinding to a halt (and for MK to mess up their game in hand), but stranger things have happened and the fact that we get to play the latter two gives us a bit more control of things.

Basically, as the cliche goes, we now have three cup finals. All any of us want I think is for the team to throw the kitchen sink at every team we face in the manner of the Bury game.
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« Reply #1223 on: April 16, 2018, 00:40:29 am »

Thing is there are quite a few 6 pointers to come so they can't all grind to a halt!!

Wombles have 49 points already, and you'd expect them to beat Bury at home on the last day...so thats 52 for them regardless of their other three games.

If Oldham beat Rochdale and Wimbledon that gives them 52 points regardless of their other 3 games too.

Walsall could be the ones to drop into the bottom 4.....its difficult to see where their points are coming from.....(of course we have to beat them to stand any chance anyway).

I can see Rochdale nicking a draw at Oxford and beating struggling Bradford on their own patch....so that gives them 49...

Therefore.....by the powers of my guesswork we need 50 points to stay up..... 2 wins and a draw!! No defeats allowed!!

Draw with Plymouth, win at Walsall and beat Oldham.....job done!!  Wink
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« Reply #1224 on: April 16, 2018, 16:04:52 pm »

Thing is there are quite a few 6 pointers to come so they can't all grind to a halt!!

Wombles have 49 points already, and you'd expect them to beat Bury at home on the last day...so thats 52 for them regardless of their other three games.

If Oldham beat Rochdale and Wimbledon that gives them 52 points regardless of their other 3 games too.

Walsall could be the ones to drop into the bottom 4.....its difficult to see where their points are coming from.....(of course we have to beat them to stand any chance anyway).

I can see Rochdale nicking a draw at Oxford and beating struggling Bradford on their own patch....so that gives them 49...

Therefore.....by the powers of my guesswork we need 50 points to stay up..... 2 wins and a draw!! No defeats allowed!!

Draw with Plymouth, win at Walsall and beat Oldham.....job done!!  Wink

We won't be able to catch Wimbledon and I think now we've got to hope they beat Oldham at the weekend.

Tomorrow's match is a tricky one for us but all three options can favour us and probably not worth making predictions until after this.

9 points will only be enough if other results go our way. Our last two games are possible but this Plymouth match is going to be very tricky and really can't see us beating them.

I wonder when the analysis comes, the games where we lost points in. JJOT's penalty miss at Rochdale looking very costly now.
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« Reply #1225 on: April 16, 2018, 16:20:01 pm »

We won't be able to catch Wimbledon and I think now we've got to hope they beat Oldham at the weekend.

Tomorrow's match is a tricky one for us but all three options can favour us and probably not worth making predictions until after this.

9 points will only be enough if other results go our way. Our last two games are possible but this Plymouth match is going to be very tricky and really can't see us beating them.

I wonder when the analysis comes, the games where we lost points in. JJOT's penalty miss at Rochdale looking very costly now.
I personally think his sending off against Shrewsbury was the noose around the neck for us. Not that I am blaming him or anything. If you were to take away that element of his game he wouldn’t be the same player, so catch 22?
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« Reply #1226 on: April 16, 2018, 17:41:42 pm »

I personally think his sending off against Shrewsbury was the noose around the neck for us. Not that I am blaming him or anything. If you were to take away that element of his game he wouldn’t be the same player, so catch 22?
Plymouth have won just 7 games more than us this season, so mustn't be given too much respect and must be seen as winnable as opposed to scraping a draw.
Also Ive booked up for Walsall so I want it to be a massive meaningful game.
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« Reply #1227 on: April 16, 2018, 18:36:39 pm »

I think we are going to do this. Us and Rochdale to be replaced by Oldham and Walsall in the bottom four.
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« Reply #1228 on: April 16, 2018, 21:47:29 pm »

Plymouth have won just 7 games more than us this season, so mustn't be given too much respect and must be seen as winnable as opposed to scraping a draw.
Also Ive booked up for Walsall so I want it to be a massive meaningful game.
I still firmly believe on our day we are more than capable of beating anyone in this division. The problem has always been a lack of belief, not turning up or both? Perhaps as lowly as they are Bury may be the catalyst for the kick start, this and DA? Leicester are often cited as an example on here, but I think a startling statistic about them was the season before they won the title under Nigel Pearson. On form they were firmly bottom during the first half of the season, in the second half they were just about top and won 7 of their last 9 games to beat the drop with pretty much the same squad. In the first half of the season, when you look at the fixtures, Leicester winning 7 of their last 9 would have been viewed as the equivalent of swimming the Atlantic. Comparatively our task looks an absolute breeze, so no-one should write us off, this is do-able, difficult, but do-able.
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« Reply #1229 on: April 17, 2018, 10:37:53 am »

Anything short of three wins and it's curtains. Hoping for a draw from this evening's festivities along with three red cards apiece!
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« Reply #1230 on: April 17, 2018, 11:14:03 am »

Am I right in thinking an Oldham win tonight will effectively mean any loss will relegate us?
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« Reply #1231 on: April 17, 2018, 11:32:24 am »

Am I right in thinking an Oldham win tonight will effectively mean any loss will relegate us?

Should we lose to Plymouth on Saturday:

We will be all but relegated by virtue of our goal difference if: Oldham win at Rochdale tonight OR at AFC Wimbledon on Saturday AND Walsall collect a point at Sc***horpe.

We will be officially relegated if: Oldham beat Rochdale and draw at AFC Wimbledon AND Walsall win at Sc***horpe.
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« Reply #1232 on: April 17, 2018, 11:37:30 am »

We will be officially relegated if: Oldham beat Rochdale and draw at AFC Wimbledon AND Walsall win at Sc***horpe.

And, actually, if we DRAW with Plymouth and these other results play out we will be all but relegated.

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« Reply #1233 on: April 17, 2018, 16:46:40 pm »

WE ARE FCUKING RELEGATED
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« Reply #1234 on: April 17, 2018, 17:01:17 pm »

WE ARE FCUKING RELEGATED

You will get some stick if a miracle happens and we stay up.
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« Reply #1235 on: April 17, 2018, 17:08:20 pm »

Should we lose to Plymouth on Saturday:

We will be all but relegated by virtue of our goal difference if: Oldham win at Rochdale tonight OR at AFC Wimbledon on Saturday AND Walsall collect a point at Sc***horpe.

We will be officially relegated if: Oldham beat Rochdale and draw at AFC Wimbledon AND Walsall win at Sc***horpe.

Cheers. So we're all supporting Rochdale tonight right?!
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« Reply #1236 on: April 17, 2018, 17:48:05 pm »

Cheers. So we're all supporting Rochdale tonight right?!

Or a draw, surely? Keep them both in the mix.
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« Reply #1237 on: April 17, 2018, 19:09:08 pm »

You will get some stick if a miracle happens and we stay up.

Happily take it mate TBH it ain't going to happen.
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« Reply #1238 on: April 17, 2018, 20:24:02 pm »

Rochdale just missed a penalty.
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« Reply #1239 on: April 17, 2018, 20:31:40 pm »

Im trying to work out whether a 0-0 draw or a Dale win would be better for us.
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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down  Grin   you heard it here 1st  Wink

(I damn well hope that does not come back to haunt me)
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