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Relegation Watch

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Dr Feelgood
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« Reply #40 on: March 04, 2017, 18:34:16 pm »

A much healthier looking table:

14.   MK Dons             35   11   10   14   45:45   43   
15.   Northampton   36   12   7   17   53:60   43   
16.   Charlton      35   9   15   11   44:41   42   
17.   Gillingham FC   36   10   12   14   47:57   42   
18.   Shrewsbury   36   11   9   16   39:50   42   
19.   Bury              36   11   7   18   54:64   40   
20.   Oldham      36   9   12   15   23:36   39   
21.   Swindon      36   9   9   18   35:50   36   
22.   Port Vale      33   8   11   14   35:52   35   
23.   Chesterfield        35   8   7   20   32:56   31   
24.   Coventry      35   5   11   19   30:54   26
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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down  Grin   you heard it here 1st  Wink

(I damn well hope that does not come back to haunt me)
singcobb
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« Reply #41 on: March 05, 2017, 10:14:27 am »

I'll be a lot happier if Charlton and the Dongs lose their game in hand.
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clarkeysntfc
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« Reply #42 on: March 05, 2017, 10:53:23 am »

I'll be a lot happier if Charlton and the Dongs lose their game in hand.

Two teams will lose their games in hand on Tuesday night:
Charlton v Scunny
Walsall v Chesterfield

After Tuesday the only teams in the mix with games in hand will be Milton Keynes, Port Vale & Coventry (I don't count Wimbledon upwards as 'in the mix').

Milton Keynes' game in hand is on 28th March, when they travel to Port Vale.

Coventry's game in hand is also v Port Vale.

Vale have 3 games in hand on us as below:
Coventry (a) (21/03)
Milton Keynes (h) (28/03)
Rochdale (a) - no date for this one yet.

So in short - Port Vales' form over those 3 games in hand will go a long way to deciding what happens around us in the table!
« Last Edit: March 05, 2017, 11:02:36 am by clarkeysntfc » Report Spam   Logged
Cobbler78
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« Reply #43 on: March 05, 2017, 14:17:39 pm »

Makes the game Vs Port Vale a week on Tuesday huge, win that and it will take a complete collapse for us to go down.
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« Reply #44 on: March 05, 2017, 17:35:06 pm »

But we're still really only 4 points above the relegation zone if you accept that PV may get 4 points from their games in hand. In other words, there is no room for results like last Tuesday.
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« Reply #45 on: March 05, 2017, 18:50:44 pm »

Port Vale will be fine, after all, some of their fans will be looking at their fixtures and saying that they have "a lot of easier games to come"............. Wink

With Swindon, us, Shrewsbury, Coventry and Chesterfield coming up they need to pick up some points.....I don't envy them their last 4 games!!

H v Sheffield United
A v Oxford United
H v Bolton Wanderers
A v Fleetwood Town
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« Reply #46 on: March 05, 2017, 18:54:09 pm »

Ooof they'll be lucky to get a point from all of those. Didn't realise just how far Coventry are from safety either until just now
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singcobb
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« Reply #47 on: March 05, 2017, 19:15:20 pm »

I think we can say goodbye to Coventry and Chesterfield, Vale will survive and Swindon and Oldham will join them.
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« Reply #48 on: March 05, 2017, 19:52:27 pm »

If we lose on Saturday and then beat Port Vale, we should by law of averages be 5-7 points clear of 4th bottom, with 8 games left. Even taking Vale out of the equation if that makes sense…

2 wins would then be needed from the last 8 games.

The way I see it, if we were to win the next 2 games (probably about a 1 in 6 chance) the season for us is as good as over.

If we were to lose the next 2 games or take a point on Saturday and lose to Port Vale, we are then right back in the sh1t!



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« Reply #49 on: March 05, 2017, 22:04:12 pm »

I would take 3 points from next 2 games, preferably against Vale. I think we'll get 4
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« Reply #50 on: March 06, 2017, 14:03:24 pm »

So having looked at the fixtures I have come to the following conclusion:

Cov and Chesterfield are down - even if they aren't down, I can't see them catching us.

Therefore we need 2 other teams to also finish below us... step forward Port Vale and Swindon. Assuming we avoid defeat against Vale next week, I believe that a total as low as 48 points will be enough to stay up this season (I believe 47 was enough last year).

Swindon have a horrible run of games coming up, after they play Vale at the weekend they have Sheff U, Bradford, Millwall & Fleetwood to play - they will do well to pick up any points in those games - therefore I'd like to think we will have moved further than the current 7 points clear of them. At that point we will be down to 5 games left to play - I'm confident they will be left with far too many points to overturn in such few games.

Port Vale may have games in hand, but they are in a horrible run of form (even we drew at Southend!). Even if they do manage to heroically turn their season around and claw back the current 8 points between us... they finish the season against Sheff U, Oxford away, Bolton at home and Fleetwood away.

That's ignoring the other 5 teams between us and the drop zone who also need to out-perform us over the run-in.

(The key games feels like Vale next Tuesday - if we can beat them the job will be all but done with plenty of games still to play).
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« Reply #51 on: March 06, 2017, 14:14:59 pm »

I keep trying to be positive, we're only 7 points behind P*sh!
Also would be good to finish top of the promoted sides and 8 behind Bristol, 6 behind Oxford, 4 behind Wimbledon

Hopefully we can have a good week or 2 and start to look up the table instead of down!
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« Reply #52 on: March 06, 2017, 17:04:53 pm »

Next two games if we git six loints season woukd be done
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Dr Feelgood
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« Reply #53 on: March 07, 2017, 20:40:49 pm »

Charlton 1 up against Scunny and Walsall/Chesterfield 0-0
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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down  Grin   you heard it here 1st  Wink

(I damn well hope that does not come back to haunt me)
Dr Feelgood
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« Reply #54 on: March 07, 2017, 21:59:12 pm »

Tonights Results:

Charlton 2 Scunny 1
Oxford 2 Sheff Utd 3
Walsall 1 Chesterfield 0

Charlton are probably safe and Chesterfield are screwed..
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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down  Grin   you heard it here 1st  Wink

(I damn well hope that does not come back to haunt me)
clarkeysntfc
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« Reply #55 on: March 08, 2017, 09:25:40 am »

After Saturday I'd have said that Charlton were in trouble of being dragged in to the mire. Now they've just beaten the 3rd best team in the division. Funny old game!
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« Reply #56 on: March 08, 2017, 09:46:45 am »

After Saturday I'd have said that Charlton were in trouble of being dragged in to the mire. Now they've just beaten the 3rd best team in the division. Funny old game!
The thing is, Sc***horpe aren't the 3rd best team in the division, on current form they and Charlton were the two worst teams !  I saw both our matches against Scunny and if you took Josh Morris out of the team they would be mid table at the best.
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« Reply #57 on: March 08, 2017, 10:15:16 am »


We can score ok, but our defending at times is diabolical, WE MUST SORT THIS SIDE OF OUR GAME OUT ASAP.
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« Reply #58 on: March 08, 2017, 10:34:11 am »

The thing is, Sc***horpe aren't the 3rd best team in the division on current form, they and Charlton were the two worst teams !  I saw both our matches against Scunny and if you took Josh Morris out of the team they would be mid table at the best.

And this is where Cobbler78's theory falls down totally as recent form is a lot better indication to "easier" games than overall league position.
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#Frank
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« Reply #59 on: March 08, 2017, 12:53:10 pm »

And this is where Cobbler78's theory falls down totally as recent form is a lot better indication to "easier" games than overall league position.

At least he has a theory. All you have is your inane repetitive babble.
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