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Relegation Watch

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unicobbler
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« Reply #520 on: January 17, 2018, 12:10:14 pm »

Really fascinated to understand what the stadium has to do with a thread tracking the developing relegation picture in L1?
We're going to get relegated because our ground is rubbish
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« Reply #521 on: January 17, 2018, 12:13:27 pm »

We're going to get relegated because our ground is rubbish
Hardly....
I dont think we will get relegated
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BedsCobb
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« Reply #522 on: January 17, 2018, 13:09:45 pm »

Not to be too nitpicky but didn't we get 7798 against Man Utd. Making the 17% even lower  Wink

Not that it matters to Beds he has it all worked out on a post, he doesn't need facts.

I'm surprised Sc***horpe don't fill their ground as thrrey have the capacity so I don't know why it's not used. Their average attendances over the last 3 years have been, 3670, 3907, 4536. Whilst ours have been 4599, 5279, 5965. Guess Sc***hopre's atmospheric ground doesn't appeal to the locals.


Apologies for digressions of topic but I need to reply😂
3 clubs are situated in lincolnshire, Sc***horpe has a population of 65,000 which is less than a third of Northampton so lets put things into perspective
For Sc***horpe to achieve an average gate of 4000 we would need to over 12 to 14000 average to match it!
But I would settle for 8 or 9000 in a 12000 capacity stadium.
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« Reply #523 on: January 17, 2018, 13:47:18 pm »

Apologies for digressions of topic but I need to reply😂
3 clubs are situated in lincolnshire, Sc***horpe has a population of 65,000 which is less than a third of Northampton so lets put things into perspective
For Sc***horpe to achieve an average gate of 4000 we would need to over 12 to 14000 average to match it!
But I would settle for 8 or 9000 in a 12000 capacity stadium.

Flippin' hell that makes sense?
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bri77
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« Reply #524 on: January 17, 2018, 13:50:29 pm »

Apologies for digressions of topic but I need to reply😂
3 clubs are situated in lincolnshire, Sc***horpe has a population of 65,000 which is less than a third of Northampton so lets put things into perspective
For Sc***horpe to achieve an average gate of 4000 we would need to over 12 to 14000 average to match it!
But I would settle for 8 or 9000 in a 12000 capacity stadium.

Whilst not a football club we have the Saints on our doorstep getting between 10 - 15K each home game.

Burnley has a population of 70k but get an average of 20K in their ground, and guess why, It's because they have had a winning team and not because they have an amazing ground.

The population of Coventry is over 300k and despite a nice ground their gates have been on a decline for years, guess why, it's because on the pitch they have been on a decline.

Besides 12 K wouldn't cut it in the Championship so I don't know why this is your magic number.
You do realise that having a big population doesn't automatically mean everyone will be interested in going to football don't you? Nothing is ever as Black and white as you paint it which is why your arguments never stack up.


I do hope we can get three points saturday although seeing as MK have a better ground than us it doesn't look likely does it.




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« Reply #525 on: January 17, 2018, 15:20:46 pm »

Rumours that Sarfend have sacked Brown which could improve their chances in the Relly battle.  Chris Powell to replace him?
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« Reply #526 on: January 17, 2018, 15:31:38 pm »

Rumours that Sarfend have sacked Brown which could improve their chances in the Relly battle.  Chris Powell to replace him?

I hope not, Chris Powell is a good manager and people quite like him so he might be able to attract a few new players.
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« Reply #527 on: January 17, 2018, 15:32:30 pm »

Whilst not a football club we have the Saints on our doorstep getting between 10 - 15K each home game.

Burnley has a population of 70k but get an average of 20K in their ground, and guess why, It's because they have had a winning team and not because they have an amazing ground.

The population of Coventry is over 300k and despite a nice ground their gates have been on a decline for years, guess why, it's because on the pitch they have been on a decline.

Besides 12 K wouldn't cut it in the Championship so I don't know why this is your magic number.
You do realise that having a big population doesn't automatically mean everyone will be interested in going to football don't you? Nothing is ever as Black and white as you paint it which is why your arguments never stack up.


I do hope we can get three points saturday although seeing as MK have a better ground than us it doesn't look likely does it.






Unfortunately Northampton is a rugby town, even when the saints got relegated they were still getting 10K crowds.
I agree tho, that when we become more sucessful it will bring in bigger crowds
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« Reply #528 on: January 17, 2018, 15:33:18 pm »

Rumours that Sarfend have sacked Brown which could improve their chances in the Relly battle.  Chris Powell to replace him?

I hear there's a manager going well up the road from them at Leyton Orient. Might be the guy to save their season.
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« Reply #529 on: January 17, 2018, 15:38:32 pm »

I hear there's a manager going well up the road from them at Leyton Orient. Might be the guy to save their season.

Shame Barnet have taken in Westley. He would have done.
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« Reply #530 on: January 17, 2018, 16:23:34 pm »

Unfortunately Northampton is a rugby town, even when the saints got relegated they were still getting 10K crowds.
The Saints have a vast catchment area, they get lots of support from East Anglia and they have an academy in Bury St Edmunds !!
But the still only took 19000 to a European Cup Final when we have took 43000, 32000 and 23000 to lower league play off finals, Rugby town  Huh?
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« Reply #531 on: January 17, 2018, 16:29:04 pm »

The Saints have a vast catchment area, they get lots of support from East Anglia and they have an academy in Bury St Edmunds !!
But the still only took 19000 to a European Cup Final when we have took 43000, 32000 and 23000 to lower league play off finals, Rugby town  Huh?

I like these guys who supply facts in support of their argument  Wink
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« Reply #532 on: January 17, 2018, 17:11:32 pm »

I like these guys who supply facts in support of their argument  Wink

It is a fact that the still got 10k plus crowds when they got relegated, still getting them now even tho they are playing badly.
Not disagreeing that Cobblers took lots of fans to the play off finals, but where are they week in week out.........
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« Reply #533 on: January 17, 2018, 18:04:27 pm »

Saints are one of the top rugby sides in the country. They play in the top league and in European competitions. At the moment we can’t compete with that. The marketing that was done at the saints in the 90’s was then sport was growing is now paying dividends. They have a core support of approx 12k from a much wider catchment area. Before the redevelopment of FG though what was the average attendance? I remember saints crowds being about the same as ours as one point, they grew and more importantly jumped on the ship of the popularity of the sport (especially after winning the World Cup in 2003) had money to develop the stadium and then again marketed the club in the right way.
That being said, as previous post they barely took (compared to us) any fans coot ultimately the best cup final in Europe.
They had the money, the insight, the marketing team and the fact they own their ground
Playing in the premier league of there respective sport also helps.

If we were to go up just one level I believe we would challenge attendances! ( obviously need a ground big enough) 🙄
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« Reply #534 on: January 20, 2018, 23:17:21 pm »

Out of the relegation zone!

Blackpool 33
Cobblers 32
**Wimbledon 31
*Southend 31
---------------
*MK Dons 30
Oldham 29
***Rochdale 22
*Bury 20


* indicates games in hand

Theoretically it's still possible for us to drop back down to 21st once other teams play their games in hand on us, so we need to try to keep this this momentum. Looking a lot better though!

We remain 6/5 (third favourites) to be relegated (Bet 365).
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« Reply #535 on: January 20, 2018, 23:54:50 pm »

Out of the relegation zone!

Blackpool 33
Cobblers 32
**Wimbledon 31
*Southend 31
---------------
*MK Dons 30
Oldham 29
***Rochdale 22
*Bury 20


* indicates games in hand

Theoretically it's still possible for us to drop back down to 21st once other teams play their games in hand on us, so we need to try to keep this this momentum. Looking a lot better though!

We remain 6/5 (third favourites) to be relegated (Bet 365).

This is sky bets current stab at relegation odds!
https://m.skybet.com/football/sky-bet-league-one/event/20605643?DCMP=bet_responsivesiteredirect&expire_site_stick=1
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« Reply #536 on: January 21, 2018, 10:07:53 am »

6 more wins and a couple of draws should seal the deal.
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« Reply #537 on: January 21, 2018, 16:13:39 pm »

Ben Mayhew has just updated the analysis on his Experimental 361 site and has NTFC at 50:50 for relegation.

Link is https://experimental361.com/2018/01/21/return-of-the-e-ratings-league-1-21-jan-2018/, scroll down to the bottom of the page.

A few more wins in coming weeks will make a huge difference!
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« Reply #538 on: January 22, 2018, 15:58:25 pm »

Dale has some tough games coming up. However Bury not so much plus they beat Poxford away so that was big result.

Southend and Blackpool are both in free-fall. There will be some more twists and turns but we're finally heading in the right direction.

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« Reply #539 on: January 28, 2018, 20:39:38 pm »

Came across this. Using the data here the most points a side has had in league one after 30 games and been relegated is 27. However both the Wimbledon Travellers Association and Oldham have exceeded their targets as well. In any event if we go down with 33 points after 30 games it will be a record by a considerable margin, at least with the data supplied. https://experimental361.com/2016/01/07/league-1-in-gifs-promotion-and-relegation/
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