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Relegation Watch

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Author Topic: Relegation Watch  (Read 60181 times)
Melbourne Cobbler
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« Reply #540 on: January 28, 2018, 20:45:23 pm »

Sorry, should have mentioned this was as of 2016
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« Reply #541 on: January 28, 2018, 22:02:30 pm »

I think you have misinterpreted the graph. All it shows is the teams that have finished 20th at the end of the season had between 27 and 39 pts after 30 games. A corollary of this is that no team with 40 or more pts after 30 games has been relegated. There would have been many teams with less than 40 pts at this stage of the season that would have found themselves in the bottom 4 come the end of the season.
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« Reply #542 on: January 28, 2018, 22:22:55 pm »

Ignore the above I'm talking bollocks. The only sensible conclusion is the average number of points gained by teams that eventually finished 20th in league 1, after 30 games, is 33pts. This puts us right on track to achieve safety all other factors being equal.
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« Reply #543 on: January 29, 2018, 18:59:58 pm »

Points scored after 30 games in each of the last 4 seasons for the teams that were eventually relegated. Final points tally after 46 games in brackets.

2016/17
Port Vale      33  (49)
Swindon       29  (44)
Chesterfield  26  (37)
Coventry      21  (39)

2015/16
Doncaster   36  (46)
Blackpool    33  (46)
Crewe         26  (34)
Colchester   22  (40)

2014/15
Notts County  38  (50)
Leyton Orient  29  (49)
Yeovil             28  (40)
Crawley          27  (50)

2013/14
Tranmere      33   (47)
Carlisle         33   (45)
Shrewsbury   27   (42)
Stevenage     25   (42)

In each of the last 4 seasons the team that eventually finished 21st and therefore were relegated had at least 33 pts after 30 games, our current points tally. In the case of Notts County they were comfortably better on 38 points but were still relegated after taking just 12 points from the last 16 games.

We probably need 18 from 16 for safety but you never know.
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Melbourne Cobbler
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« Reply #544 on: January 29, 2018, 20:48:33 pm »


We probably need 18 from 16 for safety but you never know.
Great post, co-incidentally a lot more interesting than the bollocks I talk on here.
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« Reply #545 on: January 30, 2018, 21:47:20 pm »

Walsall lost tonight and join the party..Updated

15. Fleetwood 36*
16. Wombles 34 **
17. Southend 34*
18. Walsall 33 **
19. Blackpool 33*
20. Cobbs 33
21. Dongs 30**
22. Oldham 29
23. Rochdale 22****
24. Bury 20**


* Played 1 game less
** Played 2 games less
**** Played 4 games less
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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down  Grin   you heard it here 1st  Wink

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« Reply #546 on: February 05, 2018, 13:18:31 pm »

14. Doncaster 38
15. Southend 37*
16. Walsall 36 **
17. Fleetwood 36*
18. Wombles 34 **
19. Blackpool 34*
20. Cobbs 33
---------------------
21. Oldham 32
22. Dongs 30**
23. Rochdale 25****
24. Bury 21**

Back in the mire after Saturdays results.....wins for Walsall, Southend, Oldham and of course Rochdale.

Only one midweek game affecting teams at the bottom...a 6 pointer as Bury entertain Wimbledon.

Saturday sees Wimbledon entertaining the Cobblers, Oldham travelling to Blackburn, Blackpool and Walsall meeting each other. Bury travelling to stuttering Bradford, MK hosting Pompey, plus Rochdale entertaining Fleetwood. Southend and Donny are both at home playing Wigan and Charlton respectively.
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« Reply #547 on: February 05, 2018, 14:12:25 pm »

The last game of the season V Oldham will be the saviour ......Probably need to win by 10 clear goals though... Wink
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« Reply #548 on: February 05, 2018, 17:23:18 pm »

If the Dongs, Bury and Dale win their games in hand we're fooked..
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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down  Grin   you heard it here 1st  Wink

(I damn well hope that does not come back to haunt me)
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« Reply #549 on: February 05, 2018, 17:41:36 pm »

If the Dongs, Bury and Dale win their games in hand we're fooked..

Bury may have two games in hand, but they’re still 11 points behind us. If we conspire to finish below them then it’ll be a deserved relegation.

I still think we’ll be OK - just. Important games to win this month, though.
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« Reply #550 on: February 05, 2018, 17:58:23 pm »

With the players we have now we should be at the very least mid table, in terms of budget probably top 10.
There's no excuses for Jimmy any more after Saturday's debacle I'm not so sure Wimbledon game is massive.
Have they ever beaten us? Don't we always get a result against them?
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Rule Britannia
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« Reply #551 on: February 05, 2018, 18:03:23 pm »


Have they ever beaten us? Don't we always get a result against them?


Yes and no. They won 1-0 earlier in the season.
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« Reply #552 on: February 05, 2018, 18:15:17 pm »

Yes and no. They won 1-0 earlier in the season.
Yep that was their first ever win against us

AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton Town h2h

Games won:   1
Games drawn:   6
Games lost:      6
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« Reply #553 on: February 14, 2018, 13:15:38 pm »

So, just when you get an away win and relegation fears are eased...along comes a home game to throw a spanner in the works!!

Bury have hauled themselves off the bottom of the table, at the expense of neighbours Rochdale. The Dale have 18 games to play, 11 of them at home thanks to postponements because of the state of their pitch.

16. Doncaster    P33   Pts39
17. Blackpool     P32   Pts38
18. Fleetwood    P31   Pts36
19, Oldham       P33   Pts36
20. Cobblers      P33   Pts36
-------------------------------
21. Real Dons    P32   Pts34
22. Fake Dons   P31   Pts30
23. Bury           P32   Pts26
24. Rochdale     P28   Pts25

Games for the next couple of weeks......
SAT:
WIMBLEDON v Bristol Rovers
DONCASTER v FLEETWOOD
MK DONS v Charlton
Scunny v NORTHAMPTON

SUN:
BLACKPOOL v Boro

MON:
Blackburn v BURY

TUE:
FLEETWOOD v Portsmouth

WED:
ROCHDALE v MK DONS

SAT 24th
BURY v Gillingham
FLEETWOOD v MK DONS
OLDHAM v Southend
Boro v AFC WIMBLEDON
Portsmouth v BLACKPOOL
Rotherham v DONCASTER
Wigan v ROCHDALE

TUES 27th
AFC WIMBLEDON v Blackburn




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The Hotel End GTA Champion 2006/7, 2007/8, 2011/12 and 2012/13

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clarkeysntfc
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« Reply #554 on: February 14, 2018, 14:05:19 pm »

Somehow we need to win 5 games and grab a couple of draws. 52/53 points will surely be enough.
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« Reply #555 on: February 14, 2018, 17:02:02 pm »

I'm usually optimistic but I fear the worse. Dale and Bury are even creeping up. We have the players but Hass just doesn't have a clue when it comes to tactics.
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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down  Grin   you heard it here 1st  Wink

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« Reply #556 on: February 14, 2018, 21:10:54 pm »

If the Dongs, Bury and Dale win their games in hand we're fooked..

Bury and Dale won't win them all ...as for MK touch and go.
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« Reply #557 on: February 15, 2018, 07:19:30 am »

I can’t believe we are still talking about potential relegation after the money and resources we’ve had this season.
Just shows that having good players doesn’t count for a lot without a good manager.
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« Reply #558 on: February 15, 2018, 07:51:14 am »

I can’t believe we are still talking about potential relegation after the money and resources we’ve had this season.
Just shows that having good players doesn’t count for a lot without a good manager.

We recruited well last month getting the side more balanced in order to survive relegation and having won 4 in 7 shows we have what it takes.
Some of the decision making has been questionable  as I remember Wilder also getting slaughtered for the very same thing when trying to find the right balance.
Lets leave the axe in the wood shed and get those 5 wins and 2 draws needed and allow this group  a fresh start in August.
It worked out well for wilder.
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« Reply #559 on: February 15, 2018, 09:53:29 am »

Sbeds in positive post shocker. Thank you. You've brightened my day
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I think someone should just take this city of Peterborough and just... just flush it down the f***in' toilet
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