guest3114
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Sorry, should have mentioned this was as of 2016
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Joes Sweet Left Foot
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I think you have misinterpreted the graph. All it shows is the teams that have finished 20th at the end of the season had between 27 and 39 pts after 30 games. A corollary of this is that no team with 40 or more pts after 30 games has been relegated. There would have been many teams with less than 40 pts at this stage of the season that would have found themselves in the bottom 4 come the end of the season.
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Joes Sweet Left Foot
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Ignore the above I'm talking bollocks. The only sensible conclusion is the average number of points gained by teams that eventually finished 20th in league 1, after 30 games, is 33pts. This puts us right on track to achieve safety all other factors being equal.
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Joes Sweet Left Foot
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Points scored after 30 games in each of the last 4 seasons for the teams that were eventually relegated. Final points tally after 46 games in brackets.
2016/17 Port Vale 33 (49) Swindon 29 (44) Chesterfield 26 (37) Coventry 21 (39)
2015/16 Doncaster 36 (46) Blackpool 33 (46) Crewe 26 (34) Colchester 22 (40)
2014/15 Notts County 38 (50) Leyton Orient 29 (49) Yeovil 28 (40) Crawley 27 (50)
2013/14 Tranmere 33 (47) Carlisle 33 (45) Shrewsbury 27 (42) Stevenage 25 (42)
In each of the last 4 seasons the team that eventually finished 21st and therefore were relegated had at least 33 pts after 30 games, our current points tally. In the case of Notts County they were comfortably better on 38 points but were still relegated after taking just 12 points from the last 16 games.
We probably need 18 from 16 for safety but you never know.
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guest3114
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We probably need 18 from 16 for safety but you never know.
Great post, co-incidentally a lot more interesting than the bollocks I talk on here.
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Dr Feelgood
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Walsall lost tonight and join the party..Updated
15. Fleetwood 36* 16. Wombles 34 ** 17. Southend 34* 18. Walsall 33 ** 19. Blackpool 33* 20. Cobbs 33 21. Dongs 30** 22. Oldham 29 23. Rochdale 22**** 24. Bury 20**
* Played 1 game less ** Played 2 games less **** Played 4 games less
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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down you heard it here 1st (I damn well hope that does not come back to haunt me)
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GrangeParkCobbler
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14. Doncaster 38 15. Southend 37* 16. Walsall 36 ** 17. Fleetwood 36* 18. Wombles 34 ** 19. Blackpool 34* 20. Cobbs 33 --------------------- 21. Oldham 32 22. Dongs 30** 23. Rochdale 25**** 24. Bury 21**
Back in the mire after Saturdays results.....wins for Walsall, Southend, Oldham and of course Rochdale.
Only one midweek game affecting teams at the bottom...a 6 pointer as Bury entertain Wimbledon.
Saturday sees Wimbledon entertaining the Cobblers, Oldham travelling to Blackburn, Blackpool and Walsall meeting each other. Bury travelling to stuttering Bradford, MK hosting Pompey, plus Rochdale entertaining Fleetwood. Southend and Donny are both at home playing Wigan and Charlton respectively.
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The Hotel End GTA Champion 2006/07, 2007/08, 2011/12, 2012/13, 2018/19 and 2023/24
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Travelaway
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The last game of the season V Oldham will be the saviour ......Probably need to win by 10 clear goals though...
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Dr Feelgood
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If the Dongs, Bury and Dale win their games in hand we're fooked..
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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down you heard it here 1st (I damn well hope that does not come back to haunt me)
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bringbackbroadhurst
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If the Dongs, Bury and Dale win their games in hand we're fooked..
Bury may have two games in hand, but they’re still 11 points behind us. If we conspire to finish below them then it’ll be a deserved relegation. I still think we’ll be OK - just. Important games to win this month, though.
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Manwork04
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With the players we have now we should be at the very least mid table, in terms of budget probably top 10. There's no excuses for Jimmy any more after Saturday's debacle I'm not so sure Wimbledon game is massive. Have they ever beaten us? Don't we always get a result against them?
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Rule Britannia
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guest3063
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Have they ever beaten us? Don't we always get a result against them?
Yes and no. They won 1-0 earlier in the season.
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Manwork04
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Yes and no. They won 1-0 earlier in the season.
Yep that was their first ever win against us AFC Wimbledon vs Northampton Town h2h Games won: 1 Games drawn: 6 Games lost: 6
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Rule Britannia
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GrangeParkCobbler
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So, just when you get an away win and relegation fears are eased...along comes a home game to throw a spanner in the works!!
Bury have hauled themselves off the bottom of the table, at the expense of neighbours Rochdale. The Dale have 18 games to play, 11 of them at home thanks to postponements because of the state of their pitch.
16. Doncaster P33 Pts39 17. Blackpool P32 Pts38 18. Fleetwood P31 Pts36 19, Oldham P33 Pts36 20. Cobblers P33 Pts36 ------------------------------- 21. Real Dons P32 Pts34 22. Fake Dons P31 Pts30 23. Bury P32 Pts26 24. Rochdale P28 Pts25
Games for the next couple of weeks...... SAT: WIMBLEDON v Bristol Rovers DONCASTER v FLEETWOOD MK DONS v Charlton Scunny v NORTHAMPTON
SUN: BLACKPOOL v Boro
MON: Blackburn v BURY
TUE: FLEETWOOD v Portsmouth
WED: ROCHDALE v MK DONS
SAT 24th BURY v Gillingham FLEETWOOD v MK DONS OLDHAM v Southend Boro v AFC WIMBLEDON Portsmouth v BLACKPOOL Rotherham v DONCASTER Wigan v ROCHDALE
TUES 27th AFC WIMBLEDON v Blackburn
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The Hotel End GTA Champion 2006/07, 2007/08, 2011/12, 2012/13, 2018/19 and 2023/24
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clarkeysntfc
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Somehow we need to win 5 games and grab a couple of draws. 52/53 points will surely be enough.
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Dr Feelgood
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I'm usually optimistic but I fear the worse. Dale and Bury are even creeping up. We have the players but Hass just doesn't have a clue when it comes to tactics.
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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down you heard it here 1st (I damn well hope that does not come back to haunt me)
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everbrite
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If the Dongs, Bury and Dale win their games in hand we're fooked..
Bury and Dale won't win them all ...as for MK touch and go.
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2020 Grand National S/S 3rd Place
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guest49
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I can’t believe we are still talking about potential relegation after the money and resources we’ve had this season. Just shows that having good players doesn’t count for a lot without a good manager.
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BedsCobb
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I can’t believe we are still talking about potential relegation after the money and resources we’ve had this season. Just shows that having good players doesn’t count for a lot without a good manager.
We recruited well last month getting the side more balanced in order to survive relegation and having won 4 in 7 shows we have what it takes. Some of the decision making has been questionable as I remember Wilder also getting slaughtered for the very same thing when trying to find the right balance. Lets leave the axe in the wood shed and get those 5 wins and 2 draws needed and allow this group a fresh start in August. It worked out well for wilder.
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Zen Master
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Sbeds in positive post shocker. Thank you. You've brightened my day
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I think someone should just take this city of Peterborough and just... just flush it down the f***in' toilet
The Hotelend Grand National Sweepstake Champion 2022
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