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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 23712 times)
threeinabed
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« Reply #100 on: September 15, 2017, 08:28:35 am »

It's not rocket science mate, think of it like a list of teams, a "League Table" if you will. The better teams who you have a lower chance of winning against tend to be higher up the table. The further you move down the list (league table) the worse the teams get, this therefore means you are more likely to gain more points.

yet we play one of the worse teams this coming saturday, and should be happy with a point
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threeinabed
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« Reply #101 on: September 15, 2017, 08:32:31 am »

I convinced myself I wouldn't get involved in this again but here it goes. First of all its like debating / discussing with a marshmallow, I've no idea why, just the first thing that comes into my head, now I will try to be a bit more serious.

Ignore the title of the thread, there are little to no stats in here (google what a stat is, how it differs from a fact etc).

There are essentially two points that should be separated but are being combined and confusing everyone as they don't fully complement each other...

First... The league table at the end of the season.... yes we are more likely to have taken more points from the teams in the bottom half than the top (ignore where we finish, just split the league in 2). Its stating the obvious and hardly a mathematical insight.

Second... using where teams finish at the end of the season is an extremely poor way of judging how hard or easy the next game is, more so at this point of the season. It doesn't factor in form at the time of the game, injuries or even if a club had a new manager, has made a signing or sold a player.
The easiest example of this is one I have used before. When we played P*sh I don't think many will disagree that we were poor and an 'easy' game for them. IF we continue to play how we hope an even just scrape into the top half on goal difference, according to Cobbler78, and he confirmed this on a previous post, we would automatically become a 'hard' game based on the finish position and not at the time of the game.
As the season develops, especially post January you can use this idea more as there will be less movement of manager, no more player movements and the top 10 and bottom 10 will be fairly fixed with just some movement between the top and bottom half of the league.

Given all of that it doesn't allow for the bottom teams fighting for their lives at the back of the season, how many points did we take from top teams when we just survived under Wilder when he first came in?

on the 'facts' used by cobbler78 we should all be able to retrospectively go back and bet on all the games, safe in the knowledge at the end of the season we will know which the tough games were, and which the easy ones were.
unless, in the example above, which points a flaw in the whole ludicrous imaginary system used by cobbler 78, boro finish in the bottom half of the table, and therefore constitute an easy game, despite the fact at the time, we were by far and away the worst team in the league and were absolute fodder for them.
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Buster
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« Reply #102 on: September 15, 2017, 09:36:32 am »

And yet, the facts say otherwise, just like they did last season. I'll bet anyone on here that come the end of the season, we pick up more points per game against the teams below us than those above us. You know why, because they are easier.

Well if it's facts that count then read 'em from the last four seasons and weep.  Oh, and enjoy the humble pie...

2016/17
From teams above: 25 from 20 games = 1.25 per game
From teams below: 28 from 16 games = 1.75 per game

2015/16
No team finished above us


2014/15
From teams above: 51 from 40 games = 1.275 per game
From teams below: 2 points from 6 games = 0.333 per game

2013/14
From teams above: 34 from 22 games = 1.545 per game
From teams below: 27 from 24 games = 1.125 per game

This last one is particularly humbling isn't it - we finished 12th and picked up 7 more points from the 2 fewer games of the teams that finished above us...
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threeinabed
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« Reply #103 on: September 15, 2017, 09:39:29 am »

Well if it's facts that count then read 'em from the last four seasons and weep.  Oh, and enjoy the humble pie...

2016/17
From teams above: 25 from 20 games = 1.25 per game
From teams below: 28 from 16 games = 1.75 per game

2015/16
No team finished above us


2014/15
From teams above: 51 from 40 games = 1.275 per game
From teams below: 2 points from 6 games = 0.333 per game

2013/14
From teams above: 34 from 22 games = 1.545 per game
From teams below: 27 from 24 games = 1.125 per game

This last one is particularly humbling isn't it - we finished 12th and picked up 7 more points from the 2 fewer games of the teams that finished above us...

can't have happened mate, have you not listened to everything that cobbler78 has said.............he is right, based on his made up facts, and you are wrong.
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Gen.Disorda
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« Reply #104 on: September 15, 2017, 09:43:51 am »

This really isn't that hard to understand, where a team is now or when we play them is irrelevant.

If you look at the table at the end of the year we will be more likely to have beaten the teams that finished bellow us than those who finished above us.

He is not claiming to be mystic Meg, he is just pointing out that on average that will be the case. All this talk of betting came after everyone challenged this point.
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« Reply #105 on: September 15, 2017, 09:51:36 am »

This is all bollocks! You don't play football on paper its a game of two halves played over 90 minutes. You do your talking on the pitch, give it 110%, take one game at a time and once you cross that white line its 11 v 11 on a level playing field. It's not rocket science!
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« Reply #106 on: September 15, 2017, 09:58:22 am »

can't have happened mate, have you not listened to everything that cobbler78 has said.............he is right, based on his made up facts, and you are wrong.

 Smiley Well he would have won his bet for one of the past four seasons at least
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Melbourne Cobbler
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« Reply #107 on: September 15, 2017, 11:16:10 am »

I make that 6 explanations since I asked my question and I found myself agreeing with the lot? What does that make me?
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« Reply #108 on: September 15, 2017, 11:23:23 am »

This is all bollocks! You don't play football on paper its a game of two halves played over 90 minutes. You do your talking on the pitch, give it 110%, take one game at a time and once you cross that white line its 11 v 11 on a level playing field. It's not rocket science!
Exactly this!
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« Reply #109 on: September 15, 2017, 12:12:42 pm »

2013/14
From teams above: 34 from 22 games = 1.545 per game
From teams below: 27 from 24 games = 1.125 per game
This last one is particularly humbling isn't it - we finished 12th and picked up 7 more points from the 2 fewer games of the teams that finished above us...

That's a really interesting one (although it was season 2012/3). We must have bucked the trend for statistically Cobblers78 is correct. Teams will generally gain more points from those below than above simply because there's more points to pick up.
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« Reply #110 on: September 15, 2017, 12:31:43 pm »

This really isn't that hard to understand, where a team is now or when we play them is irrelevant.

If you look at the table at the end of the year we will be more likely to have beaten the teams that finished bellow us than those who finished above us.

He is not claiming to be mystic Meg, he is just pointing out that on average that will be the case. All this talk of betting came after everyone challenged this point.

That's fine, but he shouldn't be saying 0 points from 4 teams in the top half of the table then because what matters is the table at the end of the season. and not the table on 15.09.17.
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threeinabed
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« Reply #111 on: September 15, 2017, 12:32:15 pm »

That's a really interesting one (although it was season 2012/3). We must have bucked the trend for statistically Cobblers78 is correct. Teams will generally gain more points from those below than above simply because there's more points to pick up.

depends where you finish in the league - which is why its calculated on points per game.................in which the above stats (if correct) show him to be wrong in 3 out of the last 4 seasons based on points per game.

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Cobbler78
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« Reply #112 on: September 15, 2017, 12:57:39 pm »

Well if it's facts that count then read 'em from the last four seasons and weep.  Oh, and enjoy the humble pie...

2016/17
From teams above: 25 from 20 games = 1.25 per game
From teams below: 28 from 16 games = 1.75 per game

2015/16
No team finished above us


2014/15
From teams above: 51 from 40 games = 1.275 per game
From teams below: 2 points from 6 games = 0.333 per game

2013/14
From teams above: 34 from 22 games = 1.545 per game
From teams below: 27 from 24 games = 1.125 per game

This last one is particularly humbling isn't it - we finished 12th and picked up 7 more points from the 2 fewer games of the teams that finished above us...

Good stats, if correct (not doubting they aren't) this is very surprising. Maybe we just have a team of flat track bullies for the last 2 years.
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« Reply #113 on: September 15, 2017, 13:20:51 pm »

There is such a thing as playing a team at the right time and league position "on paper" becomes irrelevant.
We are a prime example of this recently. With 0 points and 23rd in the table we were looking like easy pickings, but it doesnt account for the new manager factor and player mentalities. Form, injuries/suspensions and various other external factors will all contribute too.

There have been seasons where we seemed to always be playing teams at the "wrong" time, either after a lift in form, or the introduction of a new manager etc. The promotion season was the opposite and we seemingly got lucky playing teams who had a number of their best players injured or they were simply in a bit of a slump.



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« Reply #114 on: September 15, 2017, 13:26:56 pm »

Unfortunately, this thread is similar to a number of threads on this board:  Someone puts up a hypothetical theory and everyone 'assaults' it or quotes it as if it is the truth, initiating an argument with a hypothetical theory. 
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« Reply #115 on: September 15, 2017, 14:02:16 pm »

Unfortunately, this thread is similar to a number of threads on this board:  Someone puts up a hypothetical theory and everyone 'assaults' it or quotes it as if it is the truth, initiating an argument with a hypothetical theory. 


Quite - talk about feeding the "trundler".
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #116 on: September 15, 2017, 21:23:58 pm »

This really isn't that hard to understand, where a team is now or when we play them is irrelevant.

If you look at the table at the end of the year we will be more likely to have beaten the teams that finished bellow us than those who finished above us.

He is not claiming to be mystic Meg, he is just pointing out that on average that will be the case. All this talk of betting came after everyone challenged this point.

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #117 on: September 20, 2017, 05:57:21 am »

But I'm not wrong am I? And you can't fathom out how this could be possible. I'll keep posting the facts after every game, these will speak for themselves. B1tch and moan about it all you like, some games ARE easier than others. Last season proved that, this season proves that, every season going forward will prove that.

As promised, an update for you lovely lot.
Vs top half 3pts in 6 games (0.5PPG)
Vs bottom half 4 points in 2games (2PPG)

Projection 11+48=59Pts (mid table)
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threeinabed
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« Reply #118 on: September 20, 2017, 08:36:53 am »

but if Wigan finish bottom half, then that will be 3 points lost from an easier game???
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #119 on: September 20, 2017, 08:57:37 am »

but if Wigan finish bottom half, then that will be 3 points lost from an easier game???


Correct, what's your point?
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