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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 23461 times)
Melbourne Cobbler
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« Reply #120 on: September 20, 2017, 12:41:58 pm »

Correct, what's your point?
I admire your persistence 78, but you have to admit this is not the most popular of performance based statistical measures on offer? I am detecting a note of scepticism and dare I say incredulity from many of your peers on here? Just an observation you understand, rather than a criticism.
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« Reply #121 on: September 21, 2017, 11:26:34 am »

I admire your persistence 78, but you have to admit this is not the most popular of performance based statistical measures on offer? I am detecting a note of scepticism and dare I say incredulity from many of your peers on here? Just an observation you understand, rather than a criticism.

I agree, it's not popular, but I am going to keep on posting it as I can't take the majority of posters seriously on here.
My prediction is, once we have played 14 games, the projected final points total will be accurate to within a 5 point range either way come the end of the season.
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« Reply #122 on: September 21, 2017, 12:10:18 pm »

Strangely enough, I do agree with most of what you say 78 (howls of derision from others). However, I do think your 14 game theory is a bit far fetched and would like to see the conclusion at end of season. It seems a long time ago, but I think this whole thread started because JED had a relatively good early start at the Cobblers and most people therefore thought he was a big step up from Page, whereas in reality he just had a few easy games before the rot set in. I certainly agreed with your early assessment. I never believed this thread would have such longevity but keep stoking the fires 78 and enjoy the ride!
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« Reply #123 on: September 21, 2017, 14:24:55 pm »

I agree, it's not popular, but I am going to keep on posting it as I can't take the majority of posters seriously on here.
My prediction is, once we have played 14 games, the projected final points total will be accurate to within a 5 point range either way come the end of the season.
Should you consider opening a  Hotelend spread betting enterprise then 78?
If you do, Millwall 95/96, just saying.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #124 on: September 21, 2017, 17:43:33 pm »

Strangely enough, I do agree with most of what you say 78 (howls of derision from others). However, I do think your 14 game theory is a bit far fetched and would like to see the conclusion at end of season. It seems a long time ago, but I think this whole thread started because JED had a relatively good early start at the Cobblers and most people therefore thought he was a big step up from Page, whereas in reality he just had a few easy games before the rot set in. I certainly agreed with your early assessment. I never believed this thread would have such longevity but keep stoking the fires 78 and enjoy the ride!

Time will tell, but I'm confident it will prove accurate again. If we can get a higher league finish than last season and an increase in home attendances I'd happily take that as it will be improvement for the 4th consecutive season.
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Dr Feelgood
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« Reply #125 on: September 21, 2017, 17:52:45 pm »

Cobb78 should start an online betting site.
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« Reply #126 on: September 21, 2017, 19:47:23 pm »

Time will tell, but I'm confident it will prove accurate again. If we can get a higher league finish than last season and an increase in home attendances I'd happily take that as it will be improvement for the 4th consecutive season.
I'd be happy with that outcome, were you accurate before then 78?

Back to your prediction.
Would your methodology would be something like this.. the amount of points we've achieved after 14 games as your starting point, then somewhere between promotion form of two points a game 64, and relegation form of one point per game 32.
Difference of 32 points...pitch somewhere in the middle, let's say 32+7/17 and arrive at predicted points?

If so...with our current total of 7points plus 44 +/-5 from the final 32 fixtures plus whatever we pick up from games 9-14, let's say 8, that'll put us on 59 +/-5 for the season. That's not likely to be too far out is it?
It'll be more accurate once we know how many we pick up from the next six games of course.

I'm going for a total of 59 points right now then, although actually I don't pretend to have a fcuking clue how the rest of the season will go, but barring a shock surge or collapse in form, that'll be pretty close I reckon Smiley
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« Reply #127 on: September 22, 2017, 13:06:00 pm »

I think most people would be able to predict the points within the 11 point spread your theory offers without a ball even being kicked.

Still I like how you cling on to this being some super exercise in mathematics, statistics and probability that shows you to be some super brain and better than most - if it actually lands, which in all probability it will given its actual simplicity.

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« Reply #128 on: September 22, 2017, 15:11:44 pm »

It isn't a super exercise in maths, stats and probability and he knows it.
He probably sits behind his keyboard chuckling to himself (whilst he adds fuel to the embers after each match) that this is causing people to be so argumentative and seriously dismissive over.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #129 on: September 22, 2017, 22:20:29 pm »

I think most people would be able to predict the points within the 11 point spread your theory offers without a ball even being kicked.

Still I like how you cling on to this being some super exercise in mathematics, statistics and probability that shows you to be some super brain and better than most - if it actually lands, which in all probability it will given its actual simplicity.



It's too simplistic for some.
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« Reply #130 on: September 23, 2017, 17:13:13 pm »

Now we have a run of much easier games coming and we are getting our players back fit, I'm expecting a large haul of point in the next month

Vs top half P6 0pts Ave 0PPG
Vs bottom half P3 7pts 2.33PPG
(But you know, no such thing as easier games 🐸 ☕️)
Projection 51pts.....will change when we nick the odd point against a top half team, I'm still hopefull of a top half finish.
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« Reply #131 on: September 23, 2017, 20:42:51 pm »

Jesus, this is the crappiest and most pointless wasre of bytes ever.

Two weeks ago we supposedly averaged 0.5 points per game against top teams. How can it now be zero?

Don't waste your time explaining, I know the reason why and its thats very reason why its all total bullshat.

It relies on the goalposts moving week by week. You effectively lose points gained if teams move from one half to the other. Zero credibility. Lock it for me, total waste of time
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« Reply #132 on: September 23, 2017, 22:54:39 pm »

Jesus, this is the crappiest and most pointless wasre of bytes ever.

Two weeks ago we supposedly averaged 0.5 points per game against top teams. How can it now be zero?

Don't waste your time explaining, I know the reason why and its thats very reason why its all total bullshat.

It relies on the goalposts moving week by week. You effectively lose points gained if teams move from one half to the other. Zero credibility. Lock it for me, total waste of time

Wasre of bytes?

Anyway, look at the facts. We have played some tough games so when we play the easier ones (next month) our points will rocket, it's not complicated X
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Melbourne Cobbler
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« Reply #133 on: September 24, 2017, 08:22:32 am »

Jesus, this is the crappiest and most pointless wasre of bytes ever.

Two weeks ago we supposedly averaged 0.5 points per game against top teams. How can it now be zero?

Don't waste your time explaining, I know the reason why and its thats very reason why its all total bullshat.

It relies on the goalposts moving week by week. You effectively lose points gained if teams move from one half to the other. Zero credibility. Lock it for me, total waste of time
Dunno what you're on about, great fun this thread, I've enjoyed every minute of it. Top class entertainment.
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« Reply #134 on: September 24, 2017, 17:52:18 pm »

A seven page thread just to say we'll get more points against good teams than bad teams  Huh?
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« Reply #135 on: September 24, 2017, 17:53:59 pm »

Or the other way round, of course Tongue
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #136 on: September 25, 2017, 06:51:23 am »

A seven page thread just to say we'll get more points against good teams than bad teams  Huh?

Really? I thought the teams lower down were easier to get points against, however, if you read this thread others are still disagreeing with this fact, you need all sorts in society I suppose.
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« Reply #137 on: September 25, 2017, 08:39:39 am »

Really? I thought the teams lower down were easier to get points against, however, if you read this thread others are still disagreeing with this fact, you need all sorts in society I suppose.

Indeed, including pedantic people who can't let things go, it seems.  Roll Eyes
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« Reply #138 on: September 25, 2017, 09:46:38 am »

I don't think anyone at all disagrees that (logically anyway) teams at the lower end of the table (on paper) represent easier opposition than those at the top.

The problem with your meanderings is that they're not based in real time. In your scenario, if we played the top team now, they'd be a hard game in your book but if we beat them we gain points against a top team. Move on eight weeks, if that side has bombed into the bottom half, under your theory, the points we gained are now from a lower team, even though they were a top team when we beat them.

So your theory is basically rubbish and tears itself apart. Noone needs to devalue it, it devalues itself.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #139 on: September 25, 2017, 11:11:33 am »

I don't think anyone at all disagrees that (logically anyway) teams at the lower end of the table (on paper) represent easier opposition than those at the top.

The problem with your meanderings is that they're not based in real time. In your scenario, if we played the top team now, they'd be a hard game in your book but if we beat them we gain points against a top team. Move on eight weeks, if that side has bombed into the bottom half, under your theory, the points we gained are now from a lower team, even though they were a top team when we beat them.

So your theory is basically rubbish and tears itself apart. Noone needs to devalue it, it devalues itself.

And yet the facts say otherwise.
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