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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 11912 times)
unicobbler
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« Reply #20 on: September 13, 2017, 09:57:53 am »

I think its best that you stay away then Uni, your absence has clearly given the team a much needed boost  Grin
I'm not going until we lose! If we keep up the 100% record I'm moving to Spain to watch the games on the internet!!
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #21 on: September 13, 2017, 10:52:22 am »

Nobody fancy the bet? Wonder why?
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clarkeysntfc
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« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2017, 10:53:26 am »

Probably because people have got better things to do in life.
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unicobbler
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« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2017, 11:04:31 am »

Nobody fancy the bet? Wonder why?

I said I will

I will take this bet on one condition.

You allow me to bet with you on who will win the league, after the final game has been played, at the odds from the start of the season!
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2017, 11:26:31 am »

I said I will


Will we or will we not get more points per game against the easier (below us) teams, compared to the harder (above us) teams. This really shouldn't be complicated.
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unicobbler
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« Reply #25 on: September 13, 2017, 11:32:10 am »

Will we or will we not get more points per game against the easier (below us) teams, compared to the harder (above us) teams. This really shouldn't be complicated.
Its not, you plan on using the league table at the end of the season to retrospectively  say who was an 'easy' or 'hard' game. I just want you to apply the same logic to my bet of who will win the league.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2017, 11:42:39 am »

Its not, you plan on using the league table at the end of the season to retrospectively  say who was an 'easy' or 'hard' game. I just want you to apply the same logic to my bet of who will win the league.


Can you not see, that the teams currently lower have less chance of winning the league or being top half than the teams currently higher. Obviously my initial post was slightly tongue in cheek, but after about 10 games we will have a fair indication of the easier (lower) and harder (higher) games.
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unicobbler
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« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2017, 11:42:46 am »

And yet, the facts say otherwise, just like they did last season. I'll bet anyone on here that come the end of the season, we pick up more points per game against the teams below us than those above us. You know why, because they are easier.

OK serious point now to try to explain why this is all rubbish...

According to your own projection in the original post, we will finish somewhere between 7-10. Lets expand that a bit to say we will finish in the top 12, which is the top half and by your logic would make us a 'difficult' game.

Should Shrewsbury, Fleetwood, Charlton on Peterborough then look back at the end of the season and say it was a good win against a good team?


My opinion is no, especially Charlton and Peterborough who we were shocking against and an 'easy' opposition as indicated by the fact that at the time of the game we sat bottom of the league.

I agree you can look at individual games on merit of 'easy' and 'hard' based on the league position at the start of the game and probably more important their form but to look at the table in May and judge two teams on games in August for example is just crazy

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unicobbler
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« Reply #28 on: September 13, 2017, 12:00:55 pm »

Last point on this (people who abuse stats annoy me, I know I'm a geek).
Next 5 games...

Southend - finished 7th last season, top half, currently below us in the league
Wigan - in the Championship last year, currently above us in the top half of the league
Bradford - finished 5th last year, currently above us in the top half of the league
MK Dons - finished 12th last year, currently above us in the bottom half of the league
Rotherham -  in the Championship last year, currently above us in the top half of the league

Which of those is easy?! Only team below us Southend but its at their place. You claim these are the 'easy games to come!

This surely shows that there are no easy games (admittedly you said easier and not easy through)


To add to that, the teams we have played so far... of the 4 games we lost, 2 finished top half, 2 finished bottom half last season
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #29 on: September 13, 2017, 12:08:08 pm »

Last point on this (people who abuse stats annoy me, I know I'm a geek).
Next 5 games...

Southend - finished 7th last season, top half, currently below us in the league
Wigan - in the Championship last year, currently above us in the top half of the league
Bradford - finished 5th last year, currently above us in the top half of the league
MK Dons - finished 12th last year, currently above us in the bottom half of the league
Rotherham -  in the Championship last year, currently above us in the top half of the league

Which of those is easy?! Only team below us Southend but its at their place. You claim these are the 'easy games to come!

This surely shows that there are no easy games (admittedly you said easier and not easy through)


To add to that, the teams we have played so far... of the 4 games we lost, 2 finished top half, 2 finished bottom half last season

Exactly, tough run of games, I'd be happy with 5 or 6 points from them.
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just.reading
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« Reply #30 on: September 13, 2017, 12:11:41 pm »

Where did last night's game fit into this then?  Portsmouth are bottom half of the table so it must be an easier game. But they are above us in the table so it must be a harder game  Huh?

Can you please clarify the above Cobbler78?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #31 on: September 13, 2017, 12:16:10 pm »

Can you please clarify the above Cobbler78?

Easier than most, the result backs this up.
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unicobbler
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« Reply #32 on: September 13, 2017, 12:39:35 pm »

Exactly, tough run of games, I'd be happy with 5 or 6 points from them.

are you a politician or a troll?

The title of this thread, created yesterday after the game, is 'easier games to come'

You are now saying the next 5 games is a tough run of games  Huh?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #33 on: September 13, 2017, 13:02:34 pm »

are you a politician or a troll?

The title of this thread, created yesterday after the game, is 'easier games to come'

You are now saying the next 5 games is a tough run of games  Huh?

Correct. There are 46 games in a season are there not? We have played 6, of which 3 currently occupy 1st, 2nd and 3rd in the league and another is just outside the playoffs. On average our remaining games are easier than these opening 6, however, I'm sure I don't need to explain how an average works.......or do I?
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Manwork04
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« Reply #34 on: September 13, 2017, 16:34:54 pm »

Bore off Marvo you cant
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lodgeadam
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« Reply #35 on: September 13, 2017, 17:31:36 pm »

What the fuk have I just read.
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Terryfenwickatemyhamster
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« Reply #36 on: September 13, 2017, 21:40:23 pm »

Nobody fancy the bet? Wonder why?

Because nobody except you would expect anybody to bet that the bleeding obvious will happen.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #37 on: September 13, 2017, 22:04:42 pm »

Because nobody except you would expect anybody to bet that the bleeding obvious will happen.

I know it's obvious, you know it's obvious, but if you listen to the bozos on here every game has the same level of difficulty and the same chance of points. I was hoping for some easy cash haha.
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Terryfenwickatemyhamster
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« Reply #38 on: September 13, 2017, 23:22:53 pm »

I know it's obvious, you know it's obvious, but if you listen to the bozos on here every game has the same level of difficulty and the same chance of points. I was hoping for some easy cash haha.

You'll get some fish 😃
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Madrid Cobbler
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« Reply #39 on: September 14, 2017, 08:38:03 am »

Everybody seems to have missed one of the main reasons why this bet is nonsense. If we finish 19th we'll almost ceretainly have got more points from the teams above us than the teams below and if we finish say 5th, then the opposite will be true.
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