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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 6159 times)
bri77
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« Reply #240 on: October 10, 2017, 13:13:43 pm »

Why are we all still feeding this?

Stop replying (which I will do after this) and there will no reason for 78 to keep spouting on.

Let him argue with himself about who makes an easier game and when.

The FACT of the matter is we are just actually **** and are every team's easiest game.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #241 on: October 10, 2017, 13:20:08 pm »

Why are we all still feeding this?

Stop replying (which I will do after this) and there will no reason for 78 to keep spouting on.

Let him argue with himself about who makes an easier game and when.

The FACT of the matter is we are just actually **** and are every team's easiest game.

1) I won't argue with myself as I'm correct
2) We can't play ourselves
3) The facts won't change, we have easier games coming up
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threeinabed
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« Reply #242 on: October 10, 2017, 13:20:13 pm »

Another who struggles with walking and talking.

So at the moment if a random mid table Premiership side (Stoke for example) we to play Man City and Crystal Palace on consecutive weekend, both games would be considered the same chance of getting as result as you will only know which game is harder at the end of the season? Give me strength 😂😂

they were your rules - you wont know which was harder or which was easier until the table is final at the end of the season - according to your system.

you are the one who changes the system after every game, as opposed to where teams were in the league when we played them.
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threeinabed
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« Reply #243 on: October 10, 2017, 13:21:29 pm »

1) I won't argue with myself as I'm correct
2) We can't play ourselves
3) The facts won't change, we have easier games coming up

3) they aren't facts, they are your opinions, and they do change, depending on the amendments you make after every set of fixtures.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #244 on: October 10, 2017, 13:22:16 pm »

they were your rules - you wont know which was harder or which was easier until the table is final at the end of the season - according to your system.

you are the one who changes the system after every game, as opposed to where teams were in the league when we played them.

System has never changed, after each game I work out the results against top half teams compared to bottom half. The result is ALWAYS the same, this unfortunately for you is a fact.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #245 on: October 10, 2017, 13:23:49 pm »

Simple question, how many points have we got against teams currently in the top half of L1. By the way, this will be a FACT.

Finally, you walk into your own trap....

The simple FACT you keep choosing to ignore is that if we gain points against a team that were in the top half when we played them, we cannot lose them if that team slips into the bottom half later in the season. They were a "hard" game when we played them. They can't become and "easy" game after the event! That is a FACT

Out of interest, first game of the season, which half of the table were Shrewsbury?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #246 on: October 10, 2017, 13:29:36 pm »

Finally, you walk into your own trap....

The simple FACT you keep choosing to ignore is that if we gain points against a team that were in the top half when we played them, we cannot lose them if that team slips into the bottom half later in the season. They were a "hard" game when we played them. They can't become and "easy" game after the event! That is a FACT

Out of interest, first game of the season, which half of the table were Shrewsbury?

Alphabetical order? Really? So Albania are better than England who are better than Spain? Sometimes there is no point arguing with idiots, they'll just drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.
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threeinabed
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« Reply #247 on: October 10, 2017, 13:29:59 pm »

Finally, you walk into your own trap....

The simple FACT you keep choosing to ignore is that if we gain points against a team that were in the top half when we played them, we cannot lose them if that team slips into the bottom half later in the season. They were a "hard" game when we played them. They can't become and "easy" game after the event! That is a FACT

Out of interest, first game of the season, which half of the table were Shrewsbury?

leave him alone WasRambo........it's too easy to pick holes in his allegedly infallible system - that he has made up to suit himself.

i say made up, it's definitely FACT.
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threeinabed
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« Reply #248 on: October 10, 2017, 13:36:15 pm »

System has never changed, after each game I work out the results against top half teams compared to bottom half. The result is ALWAYS the same, this unfortunately for you is a fact.

when we played doncaster - they were 12th - so a harder game, then we beat them, and they dropped to 13th, which, if we played them again the following game would make them an easier game - the FACT is that when we played them they were a harder game.

if you take the table after the game, then it is essentially irrelevant.

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WasRambo
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« Reply #249 on: October 10, 2017, 13:38:48 pm »

To clear this up once and for all and to give C78 the gram of credit his "theory" deserves...

When he looks at the table he makes a judgement using the most simple form of information available to him (no comment on ability to process more complex data). A team in the bottom half is easier to get a result against than a team in the top half. At face value and ignoring form, injuries, suspensions and all the other variables that can affect a game, this is a normal expectation.

However, C78s PROJECTIONS are 100% inaccurate and a total NON-FACT because he does not use a true basis for that projection and that last statement is the only FACT in the whole of this thread. Despite having it made clear a thousand times over, you can't change the status of a fixture from easy to hard or vice versa, once it has taken place.

C78, you've become the David Icke of this message board over this single "theory". I admire doggedness up to a point but this is verging on insanity now.

I'm retiring from this now as I'll start meeting the definition of mad if I keep using the same explanation and expecting a different outcome.....
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DrillingCobbler
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« Reply #250 on: October 10, 2017, 13:46:10 pm »

The early signs (table is only 12 games old) are that we are likely to move up the table in the coming weeks based on this model. This is because we have taken points off of each of the 4 'bottom half teams' that we have played so far, and we have a number of games coming up where we play teams in the bottom half.

He's not using it as a model to bet on, its not even worth arguing about!  Grin

More a case that whilst we are currently in the bottom4, that probably isn't a fair reflection of our true standing in the division. That part I agree with, and that is based purely on results from the games we have played factoring in the quality of opposition. Of course it doesn't factor in change of managers, injuries, form, all sorts of things. But as an overall average its hard to disagree with him based on understanding it in the first place!

I didn't agree with his Page V JE comparison last season for reasons I explained at the time. But to be fair, and given hindsight, its hard to argue using stats as your main form of defence! I just think the honeymoon period we enjoyed under JE (which ironically was when we played a few of the sh1t teams) was enough to shove us towards the line. We now are in a similar situation with JFH where by we got off to a good start (2 wins and a draw) but a few weeks down the line and a little more stats to analyses from, there is no statistical evidence to suggest we have actually overall improved since sacking JE because we've only scored points when we've played bad sides, something JE didn't benefit from in his 4 games in charge at the start of the season!


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Cobbler78
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« Reply #251 on: October 10, 2017, 13:46:56 pm »

To clear this up once and for all and to give C78 the gram of credit his "theory" deserves...

When he looks at the table he makes a judgement using the most simple form of information available to him (no comment on ability to process more complex data). A team in the bottom half is easier to get a result against than a team in the top half. At face value and ignoring form, injuries, suspensions and all the other variables that can affect a game, this is a normal expectation.

However, C78s PROJECTIONS are 100% inaccurate and a total NON-FACT because he does not use a true basis for that projection and that last statement is the only FACT in the whole of this thread. Despite having it made clear a thousand times over, you can't change the status of a fixture from easy to hard or vice versa, once it has taken place.

C78, you've become the David Icke of this message board over this single "theory". I admire doggedness up to a point but this is verging on insanity now.

I'm retiring from this now as I'll start meeting the definition of mad if I keep using the same explanation and expecting a different outcome.....

Correct, it really is a very simplistic, basic, non scientific theory, anything more than that would confuse most on here (no offense to you)

The fact it's still proving accurate must clearly just be a coincidence.
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threeinabed
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« Reply #252 on: October 10, 2017, 13:47:45 pm »

i'm betting on it every game!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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unicobbler
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« Reply #253 on: October 10, 2017, 14:01:41 pm »

Correct, it really is a very simplistic, basic, non scientific theory, anything more than that would confuse most on here (no offense to you)

The fact it's still proving accurate must clearly just be a coincidence.
Was Bristol an easy game?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #254 on: October 10, 2017, 14:09:34 pm »

Was Bristol an easy game?

Easier than Charlton, Bradford or Wigan away. I was hopeful of a positive result, shame really.
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threeinabed
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« Reply #255 on: October 10, 2017, 14:23:39 pm »

Was Bristol an easy game?

they were when we kicked off, but under this system, that doesn't matter, at full time they had moved into the top half with a win so became a harder game, but not at the time we actually played then, if only we had known they were going to be a harder game before we kicked off then we could've planned accordingly - maybe this is why JFH chose to pick the team he did?!
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cobblertone
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« Reply #256 on: October 10, 2017, 14:42:52 pm »

they were when we kicked off, but under this system, that doesn't matter, at full time they had moved into the top half with a win so became a harder game, but not at the time we actually played then, if only we had known they were going to be a harder game before we kicked off then we could've planned accordingly - maybe this is why JFH chose to pick the team he did?!


At the moment there is a fair chance that anyone we play just below mid table could find themselves above mid table after the final whistle. Doesn't mean we were unlucky to have suddenly played more teams when they were in the top half of the table, it just means that we are pretty ****.

God forbid we get stuffed again or that it ends up 5 v 5 on Saturday as there'd be some kind of global statistical meltdown.
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Mr. 6fields Owl
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« Reply #257 on: October 10, 2017, 21:34:11 pm »

Correct, it really is a very simplistic, basic, non scientific theory, anything more than that would confuse most on here (no offense to you)

The fact it's still proving accurate must clearly just be a coincidence.
You accuse some cobblers supporters of being unable to walk and talk, I suggest you check your spelling, it could make you appear thick (no offence)
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #258 on: October 10, 2017, 23:54:35 pm »

You accuse some cobblers supporters of being unable to walk and talk, I suggest you check your spelling, it could make you appear thick (no offence)

Fair point 🙈
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Saint Cobbler
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« Reply #259 on: October 11, 2017, 12:24:21 pm »

i'm betting on it every game!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

How much have you won or lost so far? Also, could we use this theory for every other team? In which case happy days!
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