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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 24139 times)
Cobbler78
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« Reply #40 on: September 14, 2017, 11:04:32 am »

Everybody seems to have missed one of the main reasons why this bet is nonsense. If we finish 19th we'll almost ceretainly have got more points from the teams above us than the teams below and if we finish say 5th, then the opposite will be true.

Incredible, does someone else want to explain how points per game works?
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threeinabed
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« Reply #41 on: September 14, 2017, 11:51:26 am »

i thought it was based on games against the top half v bottom half?

if we finish bottom then we will have got more points per game against teams that finish above us - and the whole system will come crashing down.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #42 on: September 14, 2017, 12:22:22 pm »

Words fail me. These people can vote, drive and even reproduce......well, they can vote and drive.
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unicobbler
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« Reply #43 on: September 14, 2017, 12:49:10 pm »

Cobbler78... can you answer the below please...

According to your own projection in the original post, we will finish somewhere between 7-10. Lets expand that a bit to say we will finish in the top 12, which is the top half and by your logic would make us a 'difficult' game.

Should Shrewsbury, Fleetwood, Charlton on Peterborough then look back at the end of the season and say it was a good win against a good team?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #44 on: September 14, 2017, 12:55:17 pm »

Cobbler78... can you answer the below please...

According to your own projection in the original post, we will finish somewhere between 7-10. Lets expand that a bit to say we will finish in the top 12, which is the top half and by your logic would make us a 'difficult' game.

Should Shrewsbury, Fleetwood, Charlton on Peterborough then look back at the end of the season and say it was a good win against a good team?

Yes.
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unicobbler
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« Reply #45 on: September 14, 2017, 13:04:57 pm »

At the time of the game v Peterborough we were bottom of the league, lost all of our games, scored 2 and conceded 6.

And now you state that. Can you see why people think its crazy?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #46 on: September 14, 2017, 13:07:12 pm »

At the time of the game v Peterborough we were bottom of the league, lost all of our games, scored 2 and conceded 6.

And now you state that. Can you see why people think its crazy?

Three Questions UniCobbler:
1) Talk me through a bad win
2) Which Uni are you at?
3) How many years have you had to resit?
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unicobbler
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« Reply #47 on: September 14, 2017, 13:10:19 pm »

Three Questions UniCobbler:
1) Talk me through a bad win
Well done for ignoring the main point of the question
2) Which Uni are you at?
Graduated in 2006 but kept the name for nostalgic reasons
3) How many years have you had to resit?
None


See answers above.
Congratulations on making me bite again, good luck with your trolling, I'm out
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rebelspawn
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« Reply #48 on: September 14, 2017, 13:39:54 pm »

Three Questions UniCobbler:
1) Talk me through a bad win
2) Which Uni are you at?
3) How many years have you had to resit?

What qualifications do you have in the field of statistics?

Because I have witnessed before that you arbitrarily choose sample sizes to manipulate the stats to show what you already believe.

We have also demonstrated that none of your models for determining easier and harder games take any account of FORM or on the day factors like injuries to key players, suspensions or international call ups.

We were not a tough game for the Scum, regardless of where we finish this season.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #49 on: September 14, 2017, 13:42:30 pm »

What qualifications do you have in the field of statistics?

Because I have witnessed before that you arbitrarily choose sample sizes to manipulate the stats to show what you already believe.

We have also demonstrated that none of your models for determining easier and harder games take any account of FORM or on the day factors like injuries to key players, suspensions or international call ups.

We were not a tough game for the Scum, regardless of where we finish this season.

Didn't say we were a tough game did I?

Everyone is over complicating this and from reading this thread, that's the last thing many of you need to do.
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rebelspawn
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« Reply #50 on: September 14, 2017, 13:47:12 pm »

Didn't say we were a tough game did I?

Everyone is over complicating this and from reading this thread, that's the last thing many of you need to do.

So, no qualifications on your side then? I thought as much

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Cobbler78
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« Reply #51 on: September 14, 2017, 13:48:48 pm »

So, no qualifications on your side then? I thought as much



Was I wrong last season?

Am I wrong this season?
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rebelspawn
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« Reply #52 on: September 14, 2017, 13:52:40 pm »

Didn't say we were a tough game did I?

Thats exactly what you are saying. Using your model, if we finish 3rd at the end of the season, you are saying that posh should view the game against us as a good 3 points from a tough game against a strong team. AT THE TIME we played them, that couldn't have been further from the truth.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #53 on: September 14, 2017, 13:54:51 pm »

Thats exactly what you are saying. Using your model, if we finish 3rd at the end of the season, you are saying that posh should view the game against us as a good 3 points from a tough game against a strong team. AT THE TIME we played them, that couldn't have been further from the truth.

But we won't finish 3rd will we? In any case, pretty sure Posh classed their win away at our place as a great result.
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rebelspawn
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« Reply #54 on: September 14, 2017, 13:56:31 pm »

Was I wrong last season?

Am I wrong this season?

You were wrong about the fact that we were only heading in one direction under Page.
You were wrong about the fact that we had 'reversed the trend' with a single win (data point) because thats not possible
You were wrong to selct a 7 game sample without any justification other than it was best to fit your pre-determined view point.

I take no issue with the bet you propose. I won't be taking it. But when you talk down to people, as you just did with Uni, whilst at the same time misusing statistics in the way that do, then i will take issue
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Melbourne Cobbler
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« Reply #55 on: September 14, 2017, 13:57:07 pm »

I've just read this entire thread twice, do I win something?
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« Reply #56 on: September 14, 2017, 13:59:23 pm »

Three Questions UniCobbler:
1) Talk me through a bad win
2) Which Uni are you at?
3) How many years have you had to resit?

That's a poor response? That is 2 & 3 .
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #57 on: September 14, 2017, 14:01:18 pm »

You were wrong about the fact that we were only heading in one direction under Page.
You were wrong about the fact that we had 'reversed the trend' with a single win (data point) because thats not possible
You were wrong to selct a 7 game sample without any justification other than it was best to fit your pre-determined view point.

I take no issue with the bet you propose. I won't be taking it. But when you talk down to people, as you just did with Uni, whilst at the same time misusing statistics in the way that do, then i will take issue

Page points per game vs Jed?
Page goals scored per game vs Jed?
Page results vs higher placed teams vs JED?
Page results vs lower placed teams bs JED?

All of the above favour Page. Fact!
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Deepcut Cobbler
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« Reply #58 on: September 14, 2017, 14:01:58 pm »

I've just read this entire thread twice, do I win something?

Depends if you read it from above or below?
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“They shall grow not old as we that are left grow old:
Age shall not weary them, nor the years condemn.
At the going down of the sun and in the morning
We will remember them.” Laurence Binyon

The Hotelend Grand National Sweepstake Champion 2009
Cobbler78
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« Reply #59 on: September 14, 2017, 14:04:57 pm »



I take no issue with the bet you propose. I won't be taking it. But when you talk down to people, as you just did with Uni, whilst at the same time misusing statistics in the way that do, then i will take issue

If you (or anyone) thought I was wrong you'd take the bet. The fact nobody will take the bet speaks volumes.
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