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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 64756 times)
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #780 on: January 16, 2018, 19:43:03 pm »

Like you, but I do have one question. Was Bradford an easier game?

Harder game, one of the hardest of the season I’d say.
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guest3114
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« Reply #781 on: January 16, 2018, 20:13:49 pm »

Don’t get it chaps, if you don’t like the thread don’t read it. If you don’t like C78 or if he is annoying you don’t interact with him? Mums right, I did eventually turn into me dad!
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #782 on: January 16, 2018, 20:21:04 pm »

Don’t get it chaps, if you don’t like the thread don’t read it. If you don’t like C78 or if he is annoying you don’t interact with him? Mums right, I did eventually turn into me dad!

Exactly, it’s very simple isn’t it, yet even this is still too complicated for some to understand.
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Terryfenwickatemyhamster
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« Reply #783 on: January 16, 2018, 20:36:10 pm »

Don’t get it chaps, if you don’t like the thread don’t read it.

That is a concept wasted on most. I'm more than happy with it in this section if it stays about the Cobblers. Unfortunately it was/is becoming about comparing c*cks. Albeit micro c*cks.  Grin Tongue

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Cobbler78
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« Reply #784 on: January 16, 2018, 20:40:23 pm »

That is a concept wasted on most. I'm more than happy with it in this section if it stays about the Cobblers. Unfortunately it was/is becoming about comparing c*cks. Albeit micro c*cks.  Grin Tongue



Or even harder c0cks
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guest3114
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« Reply #785 on: January 16, 2018, 20:50:59 pm »

That is a concept wasted on most. I'm more than happy with it in this section if it stays about the Cobblers. Unfortunately it was/is becoming about comparing c*cks. Albeit micro c*cks.  Grin Tongue


Hope not, I’d lose that argument as well!
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singcobb
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« Reply #786 on: January 16, 2018, 20:51:37 pm »

Or even harder c0cks

You mean harder cócks to come?
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tcobb
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« Reply #787 on: January 16, 2018, 21:43:19 pm »

Just applied this theory to Bury. Bottom of the League with 17 points, 6 points from teams in the bottom (easier) half of the table, 11 points from teams in the top ( harder) half of the table.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #788 on: January 16, 2018, 22:22:50 pm »

Just applied this theory to Bury. Bottom of the League with 17 points, 6 points from teams in the bottom (easier) half of the table, 11 points from teams in the top ( harder) half of the table.

Interesting. Can you do it for all of the teams or is this the only one that bucks the trend.........so far.
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tcobb
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« Reply #789 on: January 16, 2018, 22:36:44 pm »

Just thought I would start with Bury at the bottom. If time might work up the League.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #790 on: January 20, 2018, 17:21:51 pm »

So, today’s result vs MK Dons, never in doubt was it? Stats to follow fact fans.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #791 on: January 20, 2018, 18:05:13 pm »

Vs top. Played 16, 16pts, points per game 1, projection 24
Vs bottom. Played 13, 16pts, points per game 1.231, projection 27
Total projection 51

Of course, this is if we finish bottom half.....

I think my 12th place and 60pts prediction could still be hit.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #792 on: January 28, 2018, 09:31:42 am »

Great point yesterday in one of the hardest games of the season.

Updated stats
Vs top Played 16, 14pts, 0.875ppg, projection 21pts
Vs bottom Played 14, 19pts, 1.357ppg, projection 30pts
Total projection 51pts

February should bring a bucket load of points, I expect us to be comfortably mid table come the start of March.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #793 on: January 29, 2018, 07:17:19 am »

This will flag up the people who realise they’ve lost the arguement.

Argument....

Just about sums you up.

So, another question around your theory...

Given there are 24 teams in the division each half consists of 12 teams (simple maths even you can follow...) I believe you base your projection on 23 times each of your points per game (calculation of which already proven to be flawed).

You do realise that we will occupy one of the 24 spots and therefore take up one of the 12 spots from one half. Therefore that is the first reason you can't just multiply by 23 and expect a decent projection.

Secondly, 23 is an odd number so stands to reason it's not usable as a factor in any calculation as if you factor it would mean you've played a team that is in both halves of the table.

And finally, for the umpteenth time, to do any of this you need to know which half of the table we will finish in to be able to even start getting a decent projection.

I know all of this will exceed the capacity of your tiny brain And even if it didn't, your limitless ego would not allow you to admit but if you really want talk about losing an argument, as Michael Jackson said, start with the man in the mirror.

Take a look at yourself
Make the change
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threeinabed
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« Reply #794 on: January 29, 2018, 07:29:39 am »

Argument....

Just about sums you up.

So, another question around your theory...

Given there are 24 teams in the division each half consists of 12 teams (simple maths even you can follow...) I believe you base your projection on 23 times each of your points per game (calculation of which already proven to be flawed).

You do realise that we will occupy one of the 24 spots and therefore take up one of the 12 spots from one half. Therefore that is the first reason you can't just multiply by 23 and expect a decent projection.


Once again, i will defend 78 on this - he doesn't do this. Never has done. He has explained his theory and how it works and has stuck to it. There are flaws, he has admitted as much, but we all know what his theory is based on, he hasn't moved from this. You don't have to agree with it, most don't, but he hasn't moved his goalposts from the start until now.
From what i gather, he is basing it on us finishing in the bottom half (as we are currently in the bottom half) and so we play 24 against the top half and 22 against the bottom half.
that hasn't changed.
The next 2 games form wise are 2 of the harder games, but this isn't based on form, so will still be easier games based on this statistical model.
Even i can't understand why people are still arguing with him over this.

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southofthecounty
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« Reply #795 on: January 29, 2018, 07:39:01 am »

Perhaps someone can explain this to me. Our team, and probably others, is composed of more than half new players. How do you allow for that?
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Wolvo
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« Reply #796 on: January 29, 2018, 07:51:09 am »

Perhaps someone can explain this to me. Our team, and probably others, is composed of more than half new players. How do you allow for that?

Read the post above yours. It is based purely on league positions.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #797 on: January 29, 2018, 07:59:57 am »

Once again, i will defend 78 on this - he doesn't do this. Never has done. He has explained his theory and how it works and has stuck to it. There are flaws, he has admitted as much, but we all know what his theory is based on, he hasn't moved from this. You don't have to agree with it, most don't, but he hasn't moved his goalposts from the start until now.
From what i gather, he is basing it on us finishing in the bottom half (as we are currently in the bottom half) and so we play 24 against the top half and 22 against the bottom half.
that hasn't changed.
The next 2 games form wise are 2 of the harder games, but this isn't based on form, so will still be easier games based on this statistical model.
Even i can't understand why people are still arguing with him over this.



I think you assume too much. Pretty sure he uses a simple 23x not 24/22. I could be wrong but if you break his maths down the projections divide by 23.

And to be fair, his goalposts move every week as teams switch between top and bottom halves.

In any case, it should be fairly clear by now that the theory is not the issue. The issue is his attitude, how he believes he's giving everyone an "education" even though it's an education we already received at primary school
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threeinabed
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« Reply #798 on: January 29, 2018, 08:26:07 am »

I think you assume too much. Pretty sure he uses a simple 23x not 24/22. I could be wrong but if you break his maths down the projections divide by 23.


he doesn't.
i think you need to check how you do simple sums.
.875 x 24 = 21
1.357 x 22 = 30
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« Reply #799 on: January 29, 2018, 08:40:58 am »

The next three fixtures we have against teams towards the bottom may be extremely tough because we are expected to create chances and win against sides that are in good form .
It will be another type of test after doing well in recent weeks .
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