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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 23461 times)
cj
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« Reply #80 on: September 14, 2017, 19:47:26 pm »

I'm beginning to think Cobb78 might have a mental problem..
Wise words Doc.
If that's your diagnosis what's your prognosis and treatment plan?
Does someone need to agree with Cobb78's analysis of Page, that he was in fact a good manager wrongfully sacked?
(I think this is the root cause of his problem, it has much less to do with easier/harder games, he uses that as a poorly disguised veil).

To offer some further thoughts, maybe he should reduce the amount of ice hockey he watches and rid himself of the ideas he's gained about football through the reading of books?
Books about football never work.



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Cobbler78
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« Reply #81 on: September 14, 2017, 20:19:20 pm »

Season 2016/17
Vs Top Half 14pts in 24 games
0.583 pts per game
Vs Bottom Half 39pts in 22 games
1.773 pts per game.

We have played 4 top half teams this season (0 points) and 2 bottom half teams (6pts).

You can't argue with facts.
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Coolcat
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« Reply #82 on: September 14, 2017, 20:36:11 pm »

Season 2016/17
Vs Top Half 14pts in 24 games
0.583 pts per game
Vs Bottom Half 39pts in 22 games
1.773 pts per game.

We have played 4 top half teams this season (0 points) and 2 bottom half teams (6pts).

You can't argue with facts.
Shrewsbury weren't top when we played them, to continue your 'facts' theme!

You are as much of a twat as Hallam...multi?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #83 on: September 14, 2017, 20:40:21 pm »

Shrewsbury weren't top when we played them, to continue your 'facts' theme!

You are as much of a twat as Hallam...multi?

Where did I say they were? I'm just stating facts, it seems you're confusing yourself by over complicating things.
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cobblertone
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« Reply #84 on: September 14, 2017, 20:45:35 pm »

Oh, I get it now. Basically you are just stating the obvious that statistically you are more likely to pick up points in some games rather than others. E.g. Man City will more likely beat Palace at home than United away.
We'll beat teams above us and lose to teams below us. As do all teams, or else we'd all be millionaires.
There are distinct exceptions and teams clearly change places throughout the season, so restrospective 'facts' on the whole.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/02/12/proof-that-liverpool-are-actually-the-best-team-in-the-premier-league-6443206/

Apologies in taking until page 5 to grasp your point. I thought there were higher powers at work!
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #85 on: September 14, 2017, 20:52:43 pm »

Oh, I get it now. Basically you are just stating the obvious that statistically you are more likely to pick up points in some games rather than others. E.g. Man City will more likely beat Palace at home than United away.
We'll beat teams above us and lose to teams below us. As do all teams, or else we'd all be millionaires.
There are distinct exceptions and teams clearly change places throughout the season, so restrospective 'facts' on the whole.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/02/12/proof-that-liverpool-are-actually-the-best-team-in-the-premier-league-6443206/

Apologies in taking until page 5 to grasp your point. I thought there were higher powers at work!

Finally, someone isn't over complicating things.
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Benji
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« Reply #86 on: September 14, 2017, 21:40:41 pm »

I reckon this thread will beat the redevelopment thread to the 1000 page mark!
Most inane thread ever.
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« Reply #87 on: September 14, 2017, 22:04:37 pm »

To sum up 78 (I think!);
Southend is an easier game...but will be happy with a draw!

Now close thread!  Grin
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« Reply #88 on: September 14, 2017, 22:27:45 pm »

To sum up 78 (I think!);
Southend is an easier game...but will be happy with a draw!

Now close thread!  Grin

No.

If Southend finish above us at the end of the season, this will be a hard game. If they finish below us, it's a toughie. JFH needs to get a copy of the league table of May 2018 - and fast.

It might make team selection a lottery. But as any armchair physicist knows, JFH must somehow extrapolate back from this glimpse from the future because if he somehow engineers a different result, the space time continuum will be broken and years of pestilence, famine and forced bestiality will be wrung into the Eastern districts for the rest of time.

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« Reply #89 on: September 14, 2017, 22:31:06 pm »

Shrewsbury weren't top when we played them, to continue your 'facts' theme!

You are as much of a twat as Hallam...multi?

HA HA - your problem is that Hallam tore you apart on here. Get over it!
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wrigleys
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« Reply #90 on: September 14, 2017, 22:41:10 pm »

This also means (78 correct me if I'm wrong?) that if we beat anyone they are likely to finish below us. If we lose, they are likely to finish above us.

We can all make a fcking fortune here. If we are second from bottom on the morning of the last day of the season, we are almost certain that either Portsmouth or Doncaster will be bottom, irrespective of where they are at that stage. Even if they are 10 points clear at the top, facts tell us they will receive an 80 point deduction for fielding a North Korean spy or similar! The odds would be a billion to one.

Facts, stats and logic my friends.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #91 on: September 14, 2017, 22:45:10 pm »

Google the word "Average" .....then ask an adult to read the definition to you, then ask them to explain said definition slowly using words of one syllable.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #92 on: September 14, 2017, 22:48:12 pm »

This also means (78 correct me if I'm wrong?) that if we beat anyone they are likely to finish below us. If we lose, they are likely to finish above us.

We can all make a fcking fortune here. If we are second from bottom on the morning of the last day of the season, we are almost certain that either Portsmouth or Doncaster will be bottom, irrespective of where they are at that stage. Even if they are 10 points clear at the top, facts tell us they will receive an 80 point deduction for fielding a North Korean spy or similar! The odds would be a billion to one.

Facts, stats and logic my friends.

I know you are being sarcastic in your first paragraph, but you have actually hit the nail on the head. (But you need more emphasis on the word likely)
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« Reply #93 on: September 14, 2017, 22:58:41 pm »

I know I'm the village idiot but I genuinely can't work any of this out? They all sound really convincing to me, perhaps they're all right? Can somebody give me an idiots guide to what's going on? It must be important, so I feel I've got to know. Remember short words only and pictures if possible?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #94 on: September 14, 2017, 23:03:41 pm »

I know I'm the village idiot but I genuinely can't work any of this out? They all sound really convincing to me, perhaps they're all right? Can somebody give me an idiots guide to what's going on? It must be important, so I feel I've got to know. Remember short words only and pictures if possible?

It's not rocket science mate, think of it like a list of teams, a "League Table" if you will. The better teams who you have a lower chance of winning against tend to be higher up the table. The further you move down the list (league table) the worse the teams get, this therefore means you are more likely to gain more points.
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« Reply #95 on: September 14, 2017, 23:06:18 pm »

It's not rocket science mate, think of it like a list of teams, a "League Table" if you will. The better teams who you have a lower chance of winning against tend to be higher up the table. The further you move down the list (league table) the worse the teams get, this therefore means you are more likely to gain more points.
Thanks, sounds plausible?
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« Reply #96 on: September 14, 2017, 23:11:34 pm »

This also means (78 correct me if I'm wrong?) that if we beat anyone they are likely to finish below us. If we lose, they are likely to finish above us.

We can all make a fcking fortune here. If we are second from bottom on the morning of the last day of the season, we are almost certain that either Portsmouth or Doncaster will be bottom, irrespective of where they are at that stage. Even if they are 10 points clear at the top, facts tell us they will receive an 80 point deduction for fielding a North Korean spy or similar! The odds would be a billion to one.

Facts, stats and logic my friends.

Not sure if you or 78 are confusing things Grin
I much prefer this revised style of yours above , where you omit the "pseudo porno" stuff. Can you please do a match report when convenient; should be worth a chuckle or two. By the way what happened to the Bentley?
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« Reply #97 on: September 14, 2017, 23:17:41 pm »

Thanks, sounds plausible?

Actually it does...sometimes! At the moment to consider any game against a side below us as a "banker" goes against the grain just a little. As a matter of interest why insert the "?" ?
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Melbourne Cobbler
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« Reply #98 on: September 14, 2017, 23:52:52 pm »

Actually it does...sometimes! At the moment to consider any game against a side below us as a "banker" goes against the grain just a little. As a matter of interest why insert the "?" ?

also plausible, as for the ?, I was scared I might get shouted at if I didn't.
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Chairman, Paul Stratford Fanclub & proud member of the Steve Massey Appreciation Society (Though refuse to be in his fan club on account of his crap goal celebration in front of the Hotel End when playing for Wrexham)
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« Reply #99 on: September 15, 2017, 07:29:40 am »

I convinced myself I wouldn't get involved in this again but here it goes. First of all its like debating / discussing with a marshmallow, I've no idea why, just the first thing that comes into my head, now I will try to be a bit more serious.

Ignore the title of the thread, there are little to no stats in here (google what a stat is, how it differs from a fact etc).

There are essentially two points that should be separated but are being combined and confusing everyone as they don't fully complement each other...

First... The league table at the end of the season.... yes we are more likely to have taken more points from the teams in the bottom half than the top (ignore where we finish, just split the league in 2). Its stating the obvious and hardly a mathematical insight.

Second... using where teams finish at the end of the season is an extremely poor way of judging how hard or easy the next game is, more so at this point of the season. It doesn't factor in form at the time of the game, injuries or even if a club had a new manager, has made a signing or sold a player.
The easiest example of this is one I have used before. When we played P*sh I don't think many will disagree that we were poor and an 'easy' game for them. IF we continue to play how we hope an even just scrape into the top half on goal difference, according to Cobbler78, and he confirmed this on a previous post, we would automatically become a 'hard' game based on the finish position and not at the time of the game.
As the season develops, especially post January you can use this idea more as there will be less movement of manager, no more player movements and the top 10 and bottom 10 will be fairly fixed with just some movement between the top and bottom half of the league.

Given all of that it doesn't allow for the bottom teams fighting for their lives at the back of the season, how many points did we take from top teams when we just survived under Wilder when he first came in?
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