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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 22282 times)
threeinabed
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« Reply #860 on: February 02, 2018, 08:48:24 am »

24 matches after your assertion we now have 33points/30games compared to the 6points/6games we had back then.

So I'll ask you to explain again.
What happened to those easier games?

think you might have dug yourself into the hole here.......................
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cj
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« Reply #861 on: February 02, 2018, 08:49:30 am »

think you might have dug yourself into the hole here.......................

Stepped off the curb?
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WasRambo
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« Reply #862 on: February 02, 2018, 09:02:18 am »

This thread is a classic example of someone trying to embellish an obvious statement to make themselves out to be the most clever in the room, only to find that actually the opposite is true. Ironically, I do believe that C78 has the intellect to delve deeper into the reality of the issue if he so wanted. It's the will that's lacking, or more the need to be right in everything he says.

You've over polished your turd C78 - you should have just said "we'll get more points from teams that finish in the bottom half". We'd all have nodded agreement and moved on. But you felt (and still feel) the need to come back each week and give us some "truth" in the form of statistics, which would be fine if you knew how to use them but despite being told by people with academic and professional expertise in that area that your workings out are a bit off, you rubbish them all as idiots and proclaim yourself a genius and your method / results to be fact.

It's a non-argument now anyway. Once you've shut yourself down and started calling everyone else thick and fail to even attempt any reasoned debate - you've lost it.

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Cobbler78
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« Reply #863 on: February 02, 2018, 09:03:04 am »

'Bucked trend', what's that got to do with anything?
Your over complicating things  Wink

Your opening post reads,
'Easier games to come'
Yet the simplest fact is,
24 matches after your assertion we now have 33points/30games compared to the 6points/6games we had back then.

So I'll ask you to explain again.
What happened to those easier games?

Erm we got 27 points in 24 games, which is better than 6 points in 6 games. That simple enough for you?
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cj
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« Reply #864 on: February 02, 2018, 09:19:30 am »

Erm we got 27 points in 24 games, which is better than 6 points in 6 games. That simple enough for you?
Nope.
With that ratio, less than 52 points for a season, those games still seem pretty * to me  Wink

I'll ask again, where did those easier games go?

* difficult.
« Last Edit: February 02, 2018, 09:23:38 am by cj » Report Spam   Logged
Joes Sweet Left Foot
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« Reply #865 on: February 02, 2018, 10:15:14 am »

The results for bottom of the league Bury for the current season

 
Opponent Home Away
Wigan         L
Shrewsbury W   
Blackburn     L   
Sc***horpe   LL
Bradford         W     
Rotherham     LL
Charlton          LD
Peterborough    L
Portsmouth      L
Gillingham         D
Bristol Rovers  L   
Oxford              WW
Plymouth         DL
Doncaster        L     
Fleetwood       LL
Wimbledon         
Southend          L
Walsall            W 
Blackpool        L
Northampton D
MK Dons          L
Oldham               L
Rochdale             D

Note they have yet to play Wimbledon.

Of the 16 games against the top 12 opponents they have gained 14 (6 of them against Oxford), averaging 0.9 pts / game.

Of the 12 games against the rest they have secured 6 pts at 0.5 pts a game.

No evidence there then that games against the top half teams (as the league table currently stands) are proving any more difficult for them.
Are we to deduce that Bury will take 7 pts from the remaining 8 games against the top sides and just 5pts from the remaining 10 games against the supposed easier sides, making a prediction of 32pts at the end of the season ?

Of course if Oxford were to lose their next game away at Charlton, highly likely on their current form, and slip into the bottom half of the table and Bury were to beat Blackpool at home on Saturday then suddenly it will all change with possibly 8 from 15 from the top half and 15 from 14 from the bottom half (assuming Doncaster replace Oxford in the top half)
« Last Edit: February 02, 2018, 10:20:22 am by Joes Sweet Left Foot » Report Spam   Logged
WasRambo
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« Reply #866 on: February 02, 2018, 10:24:18 am »

Erm we got 27 points in 24 games, which is better than 6 points in 6 games. That simple enough for you?

OK then C78 - let's use your own numbers to quantify this "easier" statement.

6 points in 6 games, nice and easy, 1 point per game = 46 points for the season - probable relegation (historically - I know you like your historical "facts")

27 points in 24 games is 1.125 points per game = 51.75 points for the season - marginal survival.

Neither are near your 60 point projection so not sure how you get to that. All your facts only get us to around 52 points, even using the top half / bottom half, 24 x 0.875 + 22 x 1.375 theory, its still 52 points (well 51.75 to be precise).  It's only 51 points if you consider we only got 6 points from the first six games.

These are YOUR numbers, YOUR facts.

But.... with regard to the "easier" statement. We've improved by 0.125 points per game since after the first 6 games when you started that. If that persists, that's FIVE whole points across the remaining 40 games. Do you really think that constitutes "easier" games?

And by the way - I'm using your basic methodology for these calculations, where games change from hard to easy and vice versa. I'm not going to quibble over using the proper league positions at the time the game was played because we've already seen that although more correct, it doesn't actually make a huge difference.

For once, just answer the direct questions put to you instead of swerving, deflecting or resorting to name calling. People might actually find some respect for you then...
« Last Edit: February 02, 2018, 10:29:57 am by WasRambo » Report Spam   Logged
WasRambo
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« Reply #867 on: February 02, 2018, 10:36:56 am »

The results for bottom of the league Bury for the current season

 
Opponent Home Away
Wigan         L
Shrewsbury W   
Blackburn     L   
Sc***horpe   LL
Bradford         W     
Rotherham     LL
Charlton          LD
Peterborough    L
Portsmouth      L
Gillingham         D
Bristol Rovers  L   
Oxford              WW
Plymouth         DL
Doncaster        L     
Fleetwood       LL
Wimbledon         
Southend          L
Walsall            W 
Blackpool        L
Northampton D
MK Dons          L
Oldham               L
Rochdale             D

Note they have yet to play Wimbledon.

Of the 16 games against the top 12 opponents they have gained 14 (6 of them against Oxford), averaging 0.9 pts / game.

Of the 12 games against the rest they have secured 6 pts at 0.5 pts a game.

No evidence there then that games against the top half teams (as the league table currently stands) are proving any more difficult for them.
Are we to deduce that Bury will take 7 pts from the remaining 8 games against the top sides and just 5pts from the remaining 10 games against the supposed easier sides, making a prediction of 32pts at the end of the season ?

Of course if Oxford were to lose their next game away at Charlton, highly likely on their current form, and slip into the bottom half of the table and Bury were to beat Blackpool at home on Saturday then suddenly it will all change with possibly 8 from 15 from the top half and 15 from 14 from the bottom half (assuming Doncaster replace Oxford in the top half)


Joe, this is a great illustration of the flaw in using raw league position as the common denominator. If Oxford were top half when Bury took their six points from them then they were legitimately "harder" games. That can't change just because other teams beat Oxford and knock them down the league.

The issue here is that C78 has made a statement based on the end of the season positions, which is fair enough but then uses the same methodology during the season which means you get these weird swings where a team is good against top teams one week but rubbish the next. That's impossible but he just won't have it.
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« Reply #868 on: February 02, 2018, 10:39:54 am »

He won't have it as he is clearly not intelligent enough to understand the mechanics of a league table changing from week to week bless him.

Point proven when he has picked up on grammatical errors, spelling mistakes or resorted to calling people thick instead of trying to debate rationally.

I didn't want to keep this thread going as his ignorance was quite annoying at first. It's quite amusing now though.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #869 on: February 02, 2018, 12:02:48 pm »

He won't have it as he is clearly not intelligent enough to understand the mechanics of a league table changing from week to week bless him.

Point proven when he has picked up on grammatical errors, spelling mistakes or resorted to calling people thick instead of trying to debate rationally.

I didn't want to keep this thread going as his ignorance was quite annoying at first. It's quite amusing now though.

Yeah, I'm not offended or frustrated by it anymore. I can be just as stubborn I guess and though I have belief in my convictions I am willing to accept what is obvious - even in what he is saying - there's pieces of truth in there. It's just not the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth! Wink
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everbrite
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« Reply #870 on: February 02, 2018, 12:10:15 pm »

Yeah, I'm not offended or frustrated by it anymore. I can be just as stubborn I guess and though I have belief in my convictions I am willing to accept what is obvious - even in what he is saying - there's pieces of truth in there. It's just not the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth! Wink

boo
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WasRambo
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« Reply #871 on: February 02, 2018, 12:16:27 pm »

boo

hoo
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #872 on: February 02, 2018, 13:42:13 pm »

OK then C78 - let's use your own numbers to quantify this "easier" statement.

6 points in 6 games, nice and easy, 1 point per game = 46 points for the season - probable relegation (historically - I know you like your historical "facts")

27 points in 24 games is 1.125 points per game = 51.75 points for the season - marginal survival.

Neither are near your 60 point projection so not sure how you get to that. All your facts only get us to around 52 points, even using the top half / bottom half, 24 x 0.875 + 22 x 1.375 theory, its still 52 points (well 51.75 to be precise).  It's only 51 points if you consider we only got 6 points from the first six games.

These are YOUR numbers, YOUR facts.

But.... with regard to the "easier" statement. We've improved by 0.125 points per game since after the first 6 games when you started that. If that persists, that's FIVE whole points across the remaining 40 games. Do you really think that constitutes "easier" games?

And by the way - I'm using your basic methodology for these calculations, where games change from hard to easy and vice versa. I'm not going to quibble over using the proper league positions at the time the game was played because we've already seen that although more correct, it doesn't actually make a huge difference.

For once, just answer the direct questions put to you instead of swerving, deflecting or resorting to name calling. People might actually find some respect for you then...

Oh dear, prediction and projection are two different things.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #873 on: February 02, 2018, 13:44:55 pm »

The results for bottom of the league Bury for the current season

 
Opponent Home Away
Wigan         L
Shrewsbury W   
Blackburn     L   
Sc***horpe   LL
Bradford         W     
Rotherham     LL
Charlton          LD
Peterborough    L
Portsmouth      L
Gillingham         D
Bristol Rovers  L   
Oxford              WW
Plymouth         DL
Doncaster        L     
Fleetwood       LL
Wimbledon         
Southend          L
Walsall            W 
Blackpool        L
Northampton D
MK Dons          L
Oldham               L
Rochdale             D

Note they have yet to play Wimbledon.

Of the 16 games against the top 12 opponents they have gained 14 (6 of them against Oxford), averaging 0.9 pts / game.

Of the 12 games against the rest they have secured 6 pts at 0.5 pts a game.

No evidence there then that games against the top half teams (as the league table currently stands) are proving any more difficult for them.
Are we to deduce that Bury will take 7 pts from the remaining 8 games against the top sides and just 5pts from the remaining 10 games against the supposed easier sides, making a prediction of 32pts at the end of the season ?

Of course if Oxford were to lose their next game away at Charlton, highly likely on their current form, and slip into the bottom half of the table and Bury were to beat Blackpool at home on Saturday then suddenly it will all change with possibly 8 from 15 from the top half and 15 from 14 from the bottom half (assuming Doncaster replace Oxford in the top half)


Good stats, a very odd set of results.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #874 on: February 02, 2018, 13:52:15 pm »

What is the simple direct question Iím being accused of dodging?
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Melbourne Cobbler
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« Reply #875 on: February 02, 2018, 13:59:34 pm »

boo
Evers, you made me feel all wracked with guilt and then have the audacity to turn up on here yourself? Itís indecent and a jolly poor show indeed, please return to the Rochdale thread at once.
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cj
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« Reply #876 on: February 02, 2018, 14:05:10 pm »

Oh dear, prediction and projection are two different things.
Only in your world is there a difference between projection and prediction. Check your thesaurus.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #877 on: February 02, 2018, 14:06:42 pm »

Only in your world is there a difference between projection and prediction. Check your thesaurus.

Wow
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cj
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« Reply #878 on: February 02, 2018, 14:07:03 pm »

What is the simple direct question Iím being accused of dodging?
What happened to those easier games you promised 24 games ago?
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cj
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« Reply #879 on: February 02, 2018, 14:08:06 pm »

Wow
Mr Google then?
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