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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 23712 times)
WasRambo
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« Reply #880 on: February 02, 2018, 14:35:55 pm »

What is the simple direct question Iím being accused of dodging?

Ok... here's a few for you...

If we play a team in October and they are 6th you count this as a hard game, correct?

If they then drop to 16th, you change your previous assessment and make it an easy game, correct?

Do you agree with the statement that a game cannot be hard one week, then change to easy after it has been played?

If you answer yes to all three, can you see how rubbish your projections are?

Note: I am not disagreeing that we will probably have taken more points from the teams that FINISH in the bottom half come SEASON END.

So the big question...

When you make a statement that there are EASIER games to come you are basing that on the teams position in the table AS WE ARE ABOUT TO PLAY THEM. Do you not agree then that to judge how we will do in these games, your "previous history stats" HAVE to be based using the same condition, ie. BASED ON THE POSITION WHEN WE PLAYED?

Sorry to shout but thought a little extra emphasis may focus you
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WasRambo
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« Reply #881 on: February 02, 2018, 14:41:58 pm »

Oh dear, prediction and projection are two different things.

Similar, not different. You project with facts, you (should) predict with the same facts but add your own gut feeling. Hence why I questioned how you can get to 60 points (your prediction) when your projection only gets us to 51.



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bri77
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« Reply #882 on: February 02, 2018, 14:57:35 pm »

Yeah, I'm not offended or frustrated by it anymore. I can be just as stubborn I guess and though I have belief in my convictions I am willing to accept what is obvious - even in what he is saying - there's pieces of truth in there. It's just not the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth! Wink

A bit like Stats, more stats and damn stats. All of which can be manipulated to suit an agenda.
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cj
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« Reply #883 on: February 02, 2018, 14:59:22 pm »

Similar, not different. You project with facts, you (should) predict with the same facts but add your own gut feeling. Hence why I questioned how you can get to 60 points (your prediction) when your projection only gets us to 51.




That point has been covered before Was.
Simply, he has no faith in his own statistical methodology. That's why he makes the distinction between what his analysis is telling him and what he actually thinks, and calls one a projection and one a prediction.

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cobblertone
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« Reply #884 on: February 02, 2018, 15:51:52 pm »

TBF he's got 45 pages and counting out of this sh*t, so he's a prize wind up merchant. The conviction and stubbornness of those arguing is just as funny. Sometimes it is better to know you are right and walk away with some people.
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All he had to do was build a stand.
Cobbler78
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« Reply #885 on: February 02, 2018, 15:53:27 pm »

TBF he's got 45 pages and counting out of this sh*t, so he's a prize wind up merchant. The conviction and stubbornness of those arguing is just as funny. Sometimes it is better to know you are right and walk away with some people.

Agreed! But itís nice to spread a bit of knowledge also.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #886 on: February 02, 2018, 15:55:44 pm »

Ok... here's a few for you...

If we play a team in October and they are 6th you count this as a hard game, correct?

If they then drop to 16th, you change your previous assessment and make it an easy game, correct?

Do you agree with the statement that a game cannot be hard one week, then change to easy after it has been played?

If you answer yes to all three, can you see how rubbish your projections are?

Note: I am not disagreeing that we will probably have taken more points from the teams that FINISH in the bottom half come SEASON END.

So the big question...

When you make a statement that there are EASIER games to come you are basing that on the teams position in the table AS WE ARE ABOUT TO PLAY THEM. Do you not agree then that to judge how we will do in these games, your "previous history stats" HAVE to be based using the same condition, ie. BASED ON THE POSITION WHEN WE PLAYED?

Sorry to shout but thought a little extra emphasis may focus you

I do say yes to each question. Now what are you going to do? Especially as Iíve been proved to be correct.
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Dr Feelgood
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« Reply #887 on: February 02, 2018, 16:19:16 pm »

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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down  Grin   you heard it here 1st  Wink

(I damn well hope that does not come back to haunt me)
606 Parklands_Cobbler
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« Reply #888 on: February 02, 2018, 17:17:11 pm »

Oh man. Hulk Hogan's about...
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anybody that knows the slightest inclination about the game of football knows that O'Toole should be in the team. We really do have some idiotic fans.
#Frank
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« Reply #889 on: February 02, 2018, 17:21:36 pm »



Going to need a bigger box. 
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TownOwl
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« Reply #890 on: February 02, 2018, 20:35:53 pm »

I think everyone has missed the main fact.

Earlier in the season we were diabolical. Worse defence in the country and couldn't even muster a shot.

Now, we are The mighty Teyn and it really doesn't matter if the games are easy or hard, as we'll win them anyway.

Game over.

Town Owl over and out.
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Roll Eyes           Roll Eyes           Roll Eyes
606 Parklands_Cobbler
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« Reply #891 on: February 02, 2018, 20:51:06 pm »

Only one person has missed that point...
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anybody that knows the slightest inclination about the game of football knows that O'Toole should be in the team. We really do have some idiotic fans.
#Frank
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« Reply #892 on: February 02, 2018, 20:57:15 pm »

Only one person has missed that point...

Maybe two, naming no names  Grin
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southofthecounty
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« Reply #893 on: February 02, 2018, 21:23:54 pm »

I think everyone has missed the main fact.

Earlier in the season we were diabolical. Worse defence in the country and couldn't even muster a shot.

Now, we are The mighty Teyn and it really doesn't matter if the games are easy or hard, as we'll win them anyway.

Game over.

Town Owl over and out.
That's because it's a completely different team, just as most other teams will be very different. This team we have now is top half.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #894 on: February 03, 2018, 16:05:41 pm »

I do say yes to each question. Now what are you going to do? Especially as Iíve been proved to be correct.

If you answered yes to all then youve basically agreed the method you use to project is worthless.

Mission achieved.
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606 Parklands_Cobbler
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« Reply #895 on: February 03, 2018, 16:55:28 pm »

In all senses of the word, that was one of the hardest games we've played all season.
Got absolutely nothing out of it.
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anybody that knows the slightest inclination about the game of football knows that O'Toole should be in the team. We really do have some idiotic fans.
Grove
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« Reply #896 on: February 03, 2018, 17:44:37 pm »

Admin, time to lock this 45 pages of b0llocks, to save the originator more embarrasment
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Melbourne Cobbler
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« Reply #897 on: February 03, 2018, 19:48:35 pm »

78, during the difficult and challenging days ahead remember there are people on here that still love you and are thinking of you.
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Joes Sweet Left Foot
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« Reply #898 on: February 03, 2018, 20:16:50 pm »

Just goes to show there are no easier games in this league. Oh hang on, I must be in the wrong thread.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #899 on: February 03, 2018, 20:51:38 pm »

Just goes to show there are no easier games in this league. Oh hang on, I must be in the wrong thread.

Absolutely baffling. Iím away at the moment so unable to update the stats, however, I guarantee weíve still got more points against the easier teams than the harder teams.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2018, 21:04:23 pm by Cobbler78 » Report Spam   Logged
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