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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 26194 times)
guest47
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« Reply #980 on: February 10, 2018, 23:43:56 pm »

So in that last instance, what you're saying is the average lower league punter remains a fool?!
Yes I did understand that bookies react to patterns and adjust the odds so as to weight the outcome in their favour as the market develops, but those initial odds set by them will have an effect on a gamblťrs psyche won't they, in a kind of confirmatory way, positively or otherwise?
The relationship between bookies and punters, and particularly types of punter, must be a seriously complex field of study.
In the meantime, DC saddle me up please squire.


I'm not suggesting any punter is a fool. I'm just saying that when people look to the lower leagues to spice up a bet they can often go for the bigger clubs. I've been guilty of that, for example I would find it difficult to bet against clubs like Coventry assuming they are bound to turn it around any moment.

Bookies not only react to patterns, they are completely governed by them, changing the odds purely on whats been laid. These days, especially now the betting tax is removed, it's much more like the good old fashioned Tote. The initial odds given out are often so poor it's laughable but people still go for them and it gets it all going. The wdl formulas you see for football games are quick to change as the money goes in. It's only the extreme odds on and against that seem to be manually set and they rarely apply to football. Mind you, it's still possible to bet on Man City winning the Premiership but I suspect you would get a better return from the interest in a saving account up until payout.

Bringing it closer to home I must admit I lost a lot on the Rochdale game assuming that was practically a cert. Mind you it must have helped the odds for today's game and the third goal meant I wasn't tempted to cash out early.

What's the thoughts on Tuesday? Cobs are 7/5 the win which isn't exactly great and the loss to Rochdale seems to be regarded as a blip in the recent resurgence. The best bet of the night to me looks like Walsall at 2/1 to beat Doncaster


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guest2677
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« Reply #981 on: February 11, 2018, 08:55:17 am »

I'm not suggesting any punter is a fool. I'm just saying that when people look to the lower leagues to spice up a bet they can often go for the bigger clubs. I've been guilty of that, for example I would find it difficult to bet against clubs like Coventry assuming they are bound to turn it around any moment.

Bookies not only react to patterns, they are completely governed by them, changing the odds purely on whats been laid. These days, especially now the betting tax is removed, it's much more like the good old fashioned Tote. The initial odds given out are often so poor it's laughable but people still go for them and it gets it all going. The wdl formulas you see for football games are quick to change as the money goes in. It's only the extreme odds on and against that seem to be manually set and they rarely apply to football. Mind you, it's still possible to bet on Man City winning the Premiership but I suspect you would get a better return from the interest in a saving account up until payout.

Bringing it closer to home I must admit I lost a lot on the Rochdale game assuming that was practically a cert. Mind you it must have helped the odds for today's game and the third goal meant I wasn't tempted to cash out early.

What's the thoughts on Tuesday? Cobs are 7/5 the win which isn't exactly great and the loss to Rochdale seems to be regarded as a blip in the recent resurgence. The best bet of the night to me looks like Walsall at 2/1 to beat Doncaster



Well I for one hope Coventry continue to languish well below their natural position, if that's the received wisdom.
I think it must be my idea of the average punter that's little dated then, but perhaps I can be excused given the only way I know how to 'cash out' is to get myself down to HSBC.
I still struggle to see why our game against Rochdale was considered by some as 'easy' (for betting purposes I mean), or that any league game for us so far this season could be considered a cert or a banker tbh.
I hope you win more than you lose Alton, if that's the important bit for you of course.
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« Reply #982 on: February 11, 2018, 10:41:45 am »

Facts and figures.

Great news for all of those struggling with the points per game (mentioning no names) we have played an equal amount of top half and bottom half teams. However, should we finish bottom half we now have more harder games to come with only 6 easier games remaining. Hopefully we can push into the top half which will give us a couple more Easier games and obviously improve the projection.

Vs top half Played 16, 11pts, 0.6875ppg, projection 16.5pts
Vs bottom half Played 16, 25pts, 1.5625ppg, projection 34.37pts
Projection 51pts, (if we finish bottom half)
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« Reply #983 on: February 11, 2018, 11:18:51 am »

This morning I have seen my first daffodils in full bloom.

Have any other cobbs fans seen any other signs of Spring? Feel free to share your observations on this thread.
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« Reply #984 on: February 11, 2018, 12:58:06 pm »

This morning I have seen my first daffodils in full bloom.

Have any other cobbs fans seen any other signs of Spring? Feel free to share your observations on this thread.

Hmm! but are they bottom half daffs or top half Grin
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« Reply #985 on: February 11, 2018, 13:03:15 pm »

Itís interesting what people have to resort to when they are shown up to be idiots.

I suppose 11pts in 16 games Vs 25pts in 16 games itís hard for them to put forward a coherent argument, the usual suspect must be spitting feathers.

Iíll make it easy for you, apology accepted, no hard feelings.
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« Reply #986 on: February 11, 2018, 14:29:51 pm »

Just spent a couple of days in the Cotswolds, there really are some hidden gems there. We stayed in moreton in marsh, despite the weather we had a nice walk through bourton on the water, followed by a drive through the very picturesque Broadway. Next weekend , I'm off to Adelburgh in Suffolk from Thursday to sunday Ill keep you updated if you like !
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« Reply #987 on: February 11, 2018, 14:39:32 pm »

Itís interesting what people have to resort to when they are shown up to be idiots.

I suppose 11pts in 16 games Vs 25pts in 16 games itís hard for them to put forward a coherent argument, the usual suspect must be spitting feathers.

Iíll make it easy for you, apology accepted, no hard feelings.

You do know its not about whether you get it right or not ...right?
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anybody that knows the slightest inclination about the game of football knows that O'Toole should be in the team. We really do have some idiotic fans.
guest47
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« Reply #988 on: February 11, 2018, 14:55:33 pm »

Well I for one hope Coventry continue to languish well below their natural position, if that's the received wisdom.
I think it must be my idea of the average punter that's little dated then, but perhaps I can be excused given the only way I know how to 'cash out' is to get myself down to HSBC.
I still struggle to see why our game against Rochdale was considered by some as 'easy' (for betting purposes I mean), or that any league game for us so far this season could be considered a cert or a banker tbh.
I hope you win more than you lose Alton, if that's the important bit for you of course.

The Rochdale game wasn't a cert by any means but at 3/2 the odds seemed attractive. It's all relative and no single game in football can be regarded as a cert as can be shown by the frequent cup upsets.
My measly stakes are one up from matchsticks and I certainly don't make any meaningful money from it but by the same token I don't lose much either. My satisfaction is the occasional times I get it right - a recent favourite that sticks in my mind was Ash Taylor as first goalscorer at Oxford. I also try to forget the many times I get it wrong - Arsenal winning at Spurs was the latest. 
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« Reply #989 on: February 11, 2018, 14:57:59 pm »

This morning I have seen my first daffodils in full bloom.

Have any other cobbs fans seen any other signs of Spring? Feel free to share your observations on this thread.

Yes, a Cobblers supporter in shorts yesterday ; does that count?
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« Reply #990 on: February 11, 2018, 15:06:37 pm »

Just spent a couple of days in the Cotswolds, there really are some hidden gems there. We stayed in moreton in marsh, despite the weather we had a nice walk through bourton on the water, followed by a drive through the very picturesque Broadway. Next weekend , I'm off to Adelburgh in Suffolk from Thursday to sunday Ill keep you updated if you like !

The Cotswolds ? Bit genteel for you? Aldeburgh bit classical?
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« Reply #991 on: February 11, 2018, 15:25:01 pm »

The Cotswolds ? Bit genteel for you? Aldeburgh bit classical?

You see, you don't know me at all,just judge me on my musings on here, you remind me of Ted and Cricketside
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« Reply #992 on: February 11, 2018, 15:39:39 pm »

Do the bookies take a bit of a flyer with the first few games of the season? Realistically the form book has been wiped clean by transfers, new managers and teams playing in different divisions.
Just for fun, if you had backed the Cobblers a tenner to win in every game last season you would have need there to be average odds on the win of 5/2 to have come out 30 quid on top.
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« Reply #993 on: February 11, 2018, 15:44:27 pm »

Just spent a couple of days in the Cotswolds, there really are some hidden gems there. We stayed in moreton in marsh, despite the weather we had a nice walk through bourton on the water, followed by a drive through the very picturesque Broadway. Next weekend , I'm off to Adelburgh in Suffolk from Thursday to sunday Ill keep you updated if you like !

Our usual Cotswolds stay is in Chipping Campden. It's lovely but a bit quieter and less touristy than Broadway. There's a cracking little pub crawl along the main road too, The Volunteer, The Red Lion, The Noel Arms, The Lygon Arms and then The Eight Bells. Happy days...
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« Reply #994 on: February 11, 2018, 15:50:58 pm »

Our usual Cotswolds stay is in Chipping Campden. It's lovely but a bit quieter and less touristy than Broadway. There's a cracking little pub crawl along the main road too, The Volunteer, The Red Lion, The Noel Arms, The Lygon Arms and then The Eight Bells. Happy days...

Weve done Stow on the Wold, and Chipping Norton too, each have their own charm.
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« Reply #995 on: February 11, 2018, 16:04:53 pm »

Yeah, been to all of those. We generally base ourselves in Chipping Campden, do a walk out in the countryside in the first morning, pub crawl in the afternoon, nice meal in the evening and then head further afield in the next day or two. I think we've been to all the other places of any size over our various trips. A lovely, charming part of the country.
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« Reply #996 on: February 11, 2018, 16:12:26 pm »

Recommend any nice hotels Ian? Got a big anniversary coming up and donít think a Travelodge will go down too well. I like that neck of the woods.
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« Reply #997 on: February 11, 2018, 16:26:12 pm »

[que author=cobblertone link=topic=16512.msg347362#msg347362 date=1518365546]
Recommend any nice hotels Ian? Got a big anniversary coming up and donít think a Travelodge will go down too well. I like that neck of the woods.
[/quote]

We stopped at the Redesdale Hotel in Moreton , google it, great accommodation and the food was superb, as was the Fox in Chipping Norton . Not a great deal to do mind apart from walking and sightseeing, although , anniversary eh, don't need much entertainment  Wink
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« Reply #998 on: February 11, 2018, 16:33:33 pm »

Recommend any nice hotels Ian? Got a big anniversary coming up and donít think a Travelodge will go down too well. I like that neck of the woods.


I can thoroughly recommend this place: http://www.eightbellsinn.co.uk. Nice rooms, good food in the evening, a great breakfast and best of all for an anniversary break, they don't allow kids!
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« Reply #999 on: February 11, 2018, 17:33:09 pm »

Talking of bets, I saw one earlier (PaddyPower) that if I was into big money betting Id pile cash on.

Rochdale are 4/6 to go down. 600quid stake, a grand back. Easy money!  Grin
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