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Stats - Easier Games to come

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threeinabed
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« Reply #220 on: October 10, 2017, 08:49:32 am »

The way we are going, at the end of the season every game should have been a hard one...

incorrect - when we finish bottom - we will have played 24 hard games against the top 12, but 22 easy games against the bottom half (excluding us).
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« Reply #221 on: October 10, 2017, 09:09:31 am »

And finally it's here on Saturday, not a moment too soon as people were starting to worry!
Based on the assumption that this will be our first 'easy' game that will be 1 in 13 so statistically we will play 3.54 easy games this season. Using a basic rounding rule (as cannot play 0.54 of a game) 'easy' games will provide 12 of the magically 52 points so we would need to get 40 points from hard games
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DrillingCobbler
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« Reply #222 on: October 10, 2017, 09:35:07 am »

 Grin Grin Grin

This really isn't hard guys.

Top half (1st-12th) = harder games.
Bottom half (13th-24th) = easier games.

Cobblers78 'model' is simply a rather simplistic theory that we will pick up considerably more points versus the bottom had teams than the top half teams. Whether that happens or not (it most likely will but its of course not guaranteed), we won't know until the final table after 46 games.

All he's doing in the meantime is a projection, based on current standings.

We've currently played 8 of the top half - zero points. (8 defeats)
We've currently played 4 from the bottom half - 8 points (2 wins and 2 draws)

All he's bloody doing is using the mid way point in the division as a cut off.

He's also not saying we will win on Saturday, just that its classified (as things stand) as an easier game so our chances statistically are higher. And that because of the way the fixture list has been so far this season, he's not surprised we are low down because of the harder run of games we've had.

i've had a fair few disagreements with him but its laughable that you's lot don't get this!  Grin
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #223 on: October 10, 2017, 09:35:28 am »

incorrect - when we finish bottom - we will have played 24 hard games against the top 12, but 22 easy games against the bottom half (excluding us).

You bloody idiot, the team top is still harder than the team in 23rd, also it's impossible for 24 teams to finish above us.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #224 on: October 10, 2017, 09:39:38 am »

Grin Grin Grin

This really isn't hard guys.

Top half (1st-12th) = harder games.
Bottom half (13th-24th) = easier games.

Cobblers78 'model' is simply a rather simplistic theory that we will pick up considerably more points versus the bottom had teams than the top half teams. Whether that happens or not (it most likely will but its of course not guaranteed), we won't know until the final table after 46 games.

All he's doing in the meantime is a projection, based on current standings.

We've currently played 8 of the top half - zero points. (8 defeats)
We've currently played 4 from the bottom half - 8 points (2 wins and 2 draws)

All he's bloody doing is using the mid way point in the division as a cut off.

He's also not saying we will win on Saturday, just that its classified (as things stand) as an easier game so our chances statistically are higher. And that because of the way the fixture list has been so far this season, he's not surprised we are low down because of the harder run of games we've had.

i've had a fair few disagreements with him but its laughable that you's lot don't get this!  Grin

Haha, cheers. However, I assume you have met "the average Cobblers fan" at most games, if so, this explains why the numpties are still struggling, most struggle to figure out how to walk and talk at the same time!
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threeinabed
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« Reply #225 on: October 10, 2017, 09:48:20 am »

You bloody idiot, the team top is still harder than the team in 23rd, also it's impossible for 24 teams to finish above us.

12 teams in the top half - 24 games
11 teams in the bottom half - 22 games

23 teams above us, 46 games - at what point am i the bloody idiot?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #226 on: October 10, 2017, 10:10:53 am »

Based on the assumption that this will be our first 'easy' game that will be 1 in 13 so statistically we will play 3.54 easy games this season. Using a basic rounding rule (as cannot play 0.54 of a game) 'easy' games will provide 12 of the magically 52 points so we would need to get 40 points from hard games

See above as proof of the walking and talking analogy 😂😂
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #227 on: October 10, 2017, 10:13:41 am »

12 teams in the top half - 24 games
11 teams in the bottom half - 22 games

23 teams above us, 46 games - at what point am i the bloody idiot?


Applogies, you didn't say 24 teams above us, my mistake. In my defence, the first point you made led me to believe you were slightly slower than you actually are.
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« Reply #228 on: October 10, 2017, 10:19:48 am »

See above as proof of the walking and talking analogy
What part of what I said is statistically incorrect?

Drilling....
No one disputes that at the end of the season we are more likely to have secured more points against the bottom half than the top, that makes sense.
No one disputes that teams towards the bottom on match day are potentially easier than those towards the top
What is being ridiculed is looking back at the end of the season to determine if a game was easy or hard possibly 9 months after the game
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #229 on: October 10, 2017, 10:42:46 am »


What is being ridiculed is looking back at the end of the season to determine if a game was easy or hard possibly 9 months after the game

So stop doing that then!

Are Bradford more likely to finish top or bottom half?

Are Wimbledon more likely to finish top or bottom half?

Which of these two teams are we more likely to get more points from? And why do you suppose this is the case?

« Last Edit: October 10, 2017, 10:44:52 am by Cobbler78 » Report Spam   Logged
Deepcut Cobbler
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« Reply #230 on: October 10, 2017, 10:53:07 am »

And yet, the facts say otherwise, just like they did last season. I'll bet anyone on here that come the end of the season, we pick up more points per game against the teams below us than those above us. You know why, because they are easier.

You keep changing the goalposts, top half/bottom half or those above or below us?
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« Reply #231 on: October 10, 2017, 10:58:43 am »

It's not that people don't understand the mechanics of what C78 is saying. That is obvious.

What people are questioning is the value of it. I mean, it's pretty much stating the obvious that on paper, player the team in 23rd should be easier than playing the team in 2nd. Noone disputes that at face value and at with just the static table to look at, C78s "grand theory" is not really open to debate.

Where it all falls apart though is on the fringes, where are team can be climbing from 24th to 13th on the back of an unbeaten run, or vice versa. In either case, those teams are actually probably the opposite category than which this fools guide suggests.

Also, the theory fails to take account that as teams move from hard to easy, or vice versa, C78 is moving the points tally. So where a few weeks ago we had collected a point from the team in the top half and therefore had a positive average against hard teams, that team must have now slipped into the bottom half as now we appear to have no points against a top half team? This is where his theory really falls down because he is constantly moving the goalposts to suit his own design. The strength of his theory relies on proving its harder to take points off teams in the top half. Well it's impossible when he takes the point(s) we did achieve away!

With this type of statistic (or any for that matter) you have to take the outcome of an event at the point it occurs. He isn't and therefore, the theory holds no water and in the eyes of anyone who knows anything about statistical analysis, has no credibility.

All he is really saying is, look at the table - if we're playing a team in the bottom half it should be easier to get a result because they're not as good as the teams in the top half. Well thanks buddy....

But in terms of projections, his are rubbish because he isn't applying the basic laws of statistical analysis

This thread should really end here in terms of being of any analytical use but i'm sure he'll try and come up with something. Probably using the word FACT
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threeinabed
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« Reply #232 on: October 10, 2017, 11:11:20 am »

All he is really saying is, look at the table - if we're playing a team in the bottom half it should be easier to get a result because they're not as good as the teams in the top half. Well thanks buddy....

incorrect - you have to wait until the end of season, when the table is finalised and then and only then can you determine if a game was an easy game or a hard game - as you mentioned yourself, i think, if a team starts the day in the bottom half, then beats us and moves into the top half they would have started the game as an easy game but finished it as a harder game

so, wait until the end of the season, when we can look back and say that the 3-1 win at home v pompey was a really tough game, but the 6-0 loss to bristol rovers was a piece of piss.
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threeinabed
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« Reply #233 on: October 10, 2017, 11:12:03 am »

Applogies, you didn't say 24 teams above us, my mistake. In my defence, the first point you made led me to believe you were slightly slower than you actually are.

having to slow myself down for you to be honest.

its like a 5 year old coming up with a theory for how the season will pan out.
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« Reply #234 on: October 10, 2017, 11:21:01 am »

incorrect - you have to wait until the end of season, when the table is finalised and then and only then can you determine if a game was an easy game or a hard game - as you mentioned yourself, i think, if a team starts the day in the bottom half, then beats us and moves into the top half they would have started the game as an easy game but finished it as a harder game

so, wait until the end of the season, when we can look back and say that the 3-1 win at home v pompey was a really tough game, but the 6-0 loss to bristol rovers was a piece of ****.

I'm not defending him but I think he is reassessing using the table as it stands at the time. What you say is true from the perspective that you wouldn't get a final view using his theory until the final game was played (another reason why it is guff).

But so he can keep his circus in town, he reassesses after each game. He must be to do his projections - unless he has a crystal ball..... I'm guessing doing the maths of using a more realistic moving average is just a bit too hard for him. I still don't even think he understands it at a conceptual level let alone in practice.

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DrillingCobbler
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« Reply #235 on: October 10, 2017, 11:28:18 am »

What part of what I said is statistically incorrect?

Drilling....
No one disputes that at the end of the season we are more likely to have secured more points against the bottom half than the top, that makes sense.
No one disputes that teams towards the bottom on match day are potentially easier than those towards the top
What is being ridiculed is looking back at the end of the season to determine if a game was easy or hard possibly 9 months after the game

Its just a projection, thats all. People are complicating something really simple!

If Lewis Hamilton is leading the grand prix after 10 laps, it doesn't mean he's going to win the race. However, statistically theres a better chance than if he was in 15th place!

The problem with this thread (to continue the F1 analogy) is that people are going on about pit stops, what tyres he's started on, the possibility of a pace car coming out etc!  Grin

Ultimately, his model did show up well last season so he's just seeing if it does this season!
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WasRambo
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« Reply #236 on: October 10, 2017, 11:42:15 am »

Its just a projection, thats all. People are complicating something really simple!

If Lewis Hamilton is leading the grand prix after 10 laps, it doesn't mean he's going to win the race. However, statistically theres a better chance than if he was in 15th place!

The problem with this thread (to continue the F1 analogy) is that people are going on about pit stops, what tyres he's started on, the possibility of a pace car coming out etc!  Grin

Ultimately, his model did show up well last season so he's just seeing if it does this season!

I think my main annoyance is him purporting everything he says as FACT and that therefore he and only he can be right. Like saying the sky is blue. Which it is.

Apart from when it's cloudy.

Or at night.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #237 on: October 10, 2017, 12:07:54 pm »

incorrect - you have to wait until the end of season, when the table is finalised and then and only then can you determine if a game was an easy game or a hard game - as you mentioned yourself, i think, if a team starts the day in the bottom half, then beats us and moves into the top half they would have started the game as an easy game but finished it as a harder game


Another who struggles with walking and talking.

So at the moment if a random mid table Premiership side (Stoke for example) we to play Man City and Crystal Palace on consecutive weekend, both games would be considered the same chance of getting as result as you will only know which game is harder at the end of the season? Give me strength 😂😂
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #238 on: October 10, 2017, 12:09:09 pm »

having to slow myself down for you to be honest.

its like a 5 year old coming up with a theory for how the season will pan out.

And yet you're still struggling, says it all really.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #239 on: October 10, 2017, 12:11:39 pm »

I think my main annoyance is him purporting everything he says as FACT and that therefore he and only he can be right. Like saying the sky is blue. Which it is.

Apart from when it's cloudy.

Or at night.

Simple question, how many points have we got against teams currently in the top half of L1. By the way, this will be a FACT.
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