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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Cobbler78
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« Reply #320 on: October 21, 2017, 16:46:03 pm »

Vs top half 3 from 8 (proj 9)
Vs bottom half 9 from 7 (proj 28)
Projection 37pts = Relegation

The concern is we have now played a fair spread of easier and tougher games, things have improved with the easier games, however, have they improved enough? Time will tell. I'm still hopeful of a better final league position than last season.
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« Reply #321 on: October 21, 2017, 16:46:27 pm »

I remember a thread like this a couple of years back. Basics are that each week a new prediction is made, each week the final league placing changes. By the end of the season nearly all the finishing positions in the league have been covered. Hence Cobbler 78 is proved correct  Grin Grin
 
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« Reply #322 on: October 21, 2017, 16:50:20 pm »

Cheers Nostradamus, all down to you.

Nostradumbárse
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« Reply #323 on: October 21, 2017, 16:50:24 pm »

I remember a thread like this a couple of years back. Basics are that each week a new prediction is made, each week the final league placing changes. By the end of the season nearly all the finishing positions in the league have been covered. Hence Cobbler 78 is proved correct  Grin Grin
 

But his not correct as we are just as likely to lose at home to Plymouth as we are to win away at Shrewsbury, it's all nonsense
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« Reply #324 on: October 21, 2017, 16:57:51 pm »

Of course it is, but by changing the prediction each week it will have to be correct at least once.  Grin
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« Reply #325 on: October 21, 2017, 16:59:57 pm »

I can’t believe this thread is still going it’s comedy gold!!
Any system such as this is doomed to failure as it is unable to account for imponderable situations.
Ie) we are about to play Shrewsbury a supposed hard game.
Three days before they enter administration and the players are free to leave and a fair few do.
Is this still a hard game.

We are due to play Plymouth but a week before they are taken over by a group of Dubai businessmen and sign Messi,Ronaldo,neymar and Leon Constantine.
Is this still an easy game??

Things change weekly even daily in football terms and any real system would have to recognise this on a near day to day basis in the way bookmakers price up football bets.
They cannot rely on overall form
Ie) some results a dozen games ago.
They are betting on things as they are now.
The system that bookmakers rely on is the one which shows current form.
They look at the last three matches,no more,no less and evaluate prices by doing this.
That is why a current form table is readily available to use as a statistical guide,the reason being it is based on recent factual occurances.
No one in the betting industry odds compilers uses a harder/easier game rational.
Maybe an easier games system based on the last three matches is the holy grail you are looking for.
Far more accurate but not infallible take Huddersfield v Man Utd for example.
I bet Man Utd thought that was an easier game!!
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« Reply #326 on: October 21, 2017, 17:06:34 pm »

Vs top half 3 from 8 (proj 9)
Vs bottom half 9 from 7 (proj 28)
Projection 37pts = Relegation

The concern is we have now played a fair spread of easier and tougher games, things have improved with the easier games, however, have they improved enough? Time will tell.
Talk about sitting on the fence. What a sack of sh!t that you talk. At what point did things improve with easier games? We fukcing lost to Wimbledon you clueless tw@t.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #327 on: October 21, 2017, 17:29:18 pm »

But his not correct as we are just as likely to lose at home to Plymouth as we are to win away at Shrewsbury, it's all nonsense

I assume you've not heard of bookmakers and the odds they set on the outcome of matches.
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« Reply #328 on: October 21, 2017, 17:31:21 pm »

Talk about sitting on the fence. What a sack of sh!t that you talk. At what point did things improve with easier games? We fukcing lost to Wimbledon you clueless tw@t.

Speaking of clueless twats, I take it you've not seen or understood our points per game during October (easier games) compared to before this.
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« Reply #329 on: October 21, 2017, 17:35:00 pm »

I assume you've not heard of bookmakers and the odds they set on the outcome of matches.

What's that got to do with the price of fish?Huh?


Forest green for example today
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« Reply #330 on: October 21, 2017, 17:45:47 pm »

Speaking of clueless twats, I take is you've not seen our points per game during October (easier games) compared to before this.
Your definition of easier games. Not mine. There are no easy games. Unless you pipe up afterwards, saying "I told you so".  You truly are a clueless twat.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #331 on: October 21, 2017, 17:48:41 pm »

Your definition of easier games. Not mine. There are no easy games. Unless you pipe up afterwards, saying "I told you so".  You truly are a clueless twat.

Never said any game was easy.
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« Reply #332 on: October 21, 2017, 17:50:24 pm »

What's that got to do with the price of fish?Huh?


Forest green for example today

I can't be bothered, can someone else dumb this down for him.
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« Reply #333 on: October 21, 2017, 18:09:13 pm »

Never said any game was easy.
You sure?
Isn't that what I've always said? Easier.
Richard, you strike me as the sort of person that gets excited, every time that someone responds to your bullsh!t. Its time to rein it in mate, before you make yourself look like a complete, clueless twat.
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« Reply #334 on: October 21, 2017, 18:48:15 pm »

You sure? Richard, you strike me as the sort of person that gets excited, every time that someone responds to your bullsh!t. Its time to rein it in mate, before you make yourself look like a complete, clueless twat.


Not so much excited, more baffled how a small minority find my point so hard to comprehend. I've given up trying to explain now, some people will never understand, that's life and everyone's different. I'll just let the facts speak for themselves.
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« Reply #335 on: October 21, 2017, 18:50:42 pm »

I can’t believe this thread is still going it’s comedy gold!!
Any system such as this is doomed to failure as it is unable to account for imponderable situations.
Ie) we are about to play Shrewsbury a supposed hard game.
Three days before they enter administration and the players are free to leave and a fair few do.
Is this still a hard game.

We are due to play Plymouth but a week before they are taken over by a group of Dubai businessmen and sign Messi,Ronaldo,neymar and Leon Constantine.
Is this still an easy game??

Things change weekly even daily in football terms and any real system would have to recognise this on a near day to day basis in the way bookmakers price up football bets.
They cannot rely on overall form
Ie) some results a dozen games ago.
They are betting on things as they are now.
The system that bookmakers rely on is the one which shows current form.
They look at the last three matches,no more,no less and evaluate prices by doing this.
That is why a current form table is readily available to use as a statistical guide,the reason being it is based on recent factual occurances.
No one in the betting industry odds compilers uses a harder/easier game rational.
Maybe an easier games system based on the last three matches is the holy grail you are looking for.
Far more accurate but not infallible take Huddersfield v Man Utd for example.
I bet Man Utd thought that was an easier game!!
The points you make are valid ones but you've entered this discussion a little late old boy. This game kicked off at midday, lasts for twelve hours, and I'm guessing we have about five mins plus injury time left...
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« Reply #336 on: October 21, 2017, 19:04:49 pm »

4 points in 4 games is better than 8 points in 11 last time I checked, and October is not yet over.

Unsure of your JFK reference.


Really? So 4/4 from your easier games is considered by you to be a better return than 8/11 from your harder games. How do you allow for the variables within whatever mathematical formula you use to determine that conclusion?
Jfk has now been changed to Jfh in my autospell  Smiley
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« Reply #337 on: October 21, 2017, 19:07:29 pm »

I've given up trying to explain now.
Thank fcuk for that. You truly are a boring twat.
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« Reply #338 on: October 21, 2017, 19:20:13 pm »

I can see where 78 is coming from, but there is madness in his method. The basis of easier games purely on leaue position is flawed. Eg. a game against a team in the upper half of the league would be harder, but this does not take into account that that team may have five of it's top players suspended or injured at the time we play them. Conversly playing the side that is bottom(assuming this is not us) with five of our best out of the team results in the same flawed logic.
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« Reply #339 on: October 21, 2017, 19:26:46 pm »

I can see where 78 is coming from, but there is madness in his method. The basis of easier games purely on leaue position is flawed. Eg. a game against a team in the upper half of the league would be harder, but this does not take into account that that team may have five of it's top players suspended or injured at the time we play them. Conversly playing the side that is bottom(assuming this is not us) with five of our best out of the team results in the same flawed logic.

Come on. Anyone with a working brain would think playing a team higher in the league is harder than one that is lower.
Why complicate it?
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