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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 64664 times)
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Shoemaker
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« Reply #380 on: October 26, 2017, 15:27:12 pm »

What do you think?
I’m beyond caring.
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lodgeadam
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« Reply #381 on: October 26, 2017, 15:34:27 pm »

Tough games, why not talk about them?

Ok, you are clearly trying to be a wind up merchant Richard.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #382 on: October 26, 2017, 15:55:39 pm »

I’m beyond caring.


Then why ask?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #383 on: October 26, 2017, 16:02:01 pm »

Ok, you are clearly trying to be a wind up merchant Richard.

Not at all, just stating facts. Since the first month of the season we have always had a better points per game ratio against teams in the bottom half (easier games) compared to those in the top (harder games)

At the time this thread started, we had played the majority of our games from the tougher end of the spectrum (ie easier games to come). The ratio of harder Vs easier games played has now evened out, but sadly our league position has not improved (bad results at home vs Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers cost us). However, I’m an optimist, I still think we’ll finish higher than last season.
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« Reply #384 on: October 26, 2017, 18:40:15 pm »

Not at all, just stating facts. Since the first month of the season we have always had a better points per game ratio against teams in the bottom half (easier games) compared to those in the top (harder games)

At the time this thread started, we had played the majority of our games from the tougher end of the spectrum (ie easier games to come). The ratio of harder Vs easier games played has now evened out, but sadly our league position has not improved (bad results at home vs Wimbledon and Bristol Rovers cost us). However, I’m an optimist, I still think we’ll finish higher than last season.
You also said your end of season final points projection of 31, predicted after game fourteen, would be accurate to within 5 either side. 
Hmmmm. I'm fairly certain the only poster on this site who thinks we'll finish in a higher position than last season with a spread of 26-36 points is you.

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Shoemaker
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« Reply #385 on: October 26, 2017, 20:06:48 pm »

Then why ask?
Because I find it inconceivable that anyone could really be so naive to believe that this flawed system has any merit whatsoever.
I actually don’t believe you are that thick as you come across as a decent poster,therefore I’m of the opinion it’s now just a wind up.
Funny to see the threads still running and will be even more interesting to see who is the last poster to not realise this and continue to argue regards it Roll Eyes
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« Reply #386 on: October 26, 2017, 21:26:43 pm »

Because I find it inconceivable that anyone could really be so naive to believe that this flawed system has any merit whatsoever.
I actually don’t believe you are that thick as you come across as a decent poster,therefore I’m of the opinion it’s now just a wind up.
Funny to see the threads still running and will be even more interesting to see who is the last poster to not realise this and continue to argue regards it Roll Eyes

Please indulge me and in a sentence if possible, what is Cobbler78’s system?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #387 on: October 26, 2017, 21:48:00 pm »

Please indulge me and in a sentence if possible, what is Cobbler78’s system?

There is no system, just basic common sense!
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« Reply #388 on: October 26, 2017, 21:51:07 pm »

There is no system, just basic common sense!

Thanks for your input but I was asking Shoemaker.
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Glastonbury Cobbler
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« Reply #389 on: October 26, 2017, 21:59:11 pm »

There is no system, just basic common sense!

That's just it, in football anything can happen, there is no logic. Tomorrow bottom of the table Plymouth are likely to go and beat top of the table Shrewsbury. That's football 😉
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« Reply #390 on: October 26, 2017, 22:41:10 pm »

That's just it, in football anything can happen, there is no logic. Tomorrow bottom of the table Plymouth are likely to go and beat top of the table Shrewsbury. That's football 😉

Plymouth aren't bottom of the table but if they were to play Shrewsbury tomorrow it's unlikely (around one in three) they would win. It could happen but to suggest it's likely leaves too much to no logic and other lesser factors such as injuries and recent form. I agree that in individual games chance plays a significant part, after all what other sport could you win by scoring just one point? Generally however the better footballing teams will win through.
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Glastonbury Cobbler
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« Reply #391 on: October 26, 2017, 23:11:09 pm »

Plymouth aren't bottom of the table but if they were to play Shrewsbury tomorrow it's unlikely (around one in three) they would win. It could happen but to suggest it's likely leaves too much to no logic and other lesser factors such as injuries and recent form. I agree that in individual games chance plays a significant part, after all what other sport could you win by scoring just one point? Generally however the better footballing teams will win through.

Cuz Huddersfield are better than man united?Huh??

Or west ham are better than spurs?Huh??


As you say so many variables, you cannot make an assumption on league position alone!!!
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #392 on: October 26, 2017, 23:30:16 pm »

That's just it, in football anything can happen, there is no logic. Tomorrow bottom of the table Plymouth are likely to go and beat top of the table Shrewsbury. That's football 😉

When you say likely........more likely than Shrewsbury winning? If not, why not.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #393 on: October 27, 2017, 09:45:44 am »

I think we’ll get more points vs Oldham than we will against Sc***horpe. If you disagree, fancy a tenner on it?

Is that based on your theory or just gut feeling?

You're deflecting from the actual question. Let's make this simple....

Which is the tougher game - one against a team in say 8th place in the table, who have taken 1pt from their last 6 games, or one against a team in say 17th who have taken 14pts from their last 6 games?
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« Reply #394 on: October 27, 2017, 09:54:17 am »

Cuz Huddersfield are better than man united?Huh??

Or west ham are better than spurs?Huh??


As you say so many variables, you cannot make an assumption on league position alone!!!

Obviously not, but for most people, including the bookies, it’s by far the most important factor and as the season progresses it becomes more important. Things like form, injuries etc. tend to cancel each other out.
If you disagree dont waste time arguing on here, get to a bookie site and fill you boots, you’ll notice the odds mostly follow league positions with home/away being the only other significant factor.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #395 on: October 27, 2017, 09:54:54 am »

The flaw with your argument is that you've picked an arbitrary number of games for form and used that. If you had chosen 2 or 12 games rather than 5 then their forms are identical.


Last five or six is the most widely used format for "recent form". The clue is in the word "form". It's used across all sports. It's widely recognised as a more reliable means of predicting outcomes as it it based on recent events.

C78s formula totally ignores it and uses a static view of a table. Using his formula a team could win 10 on the trot to attain a "hard" rating but then be on a 6 match losing slump and still be a hard game when in reality, they could have no manager and be fielding a youth team due to injuries. His formula also fails to fix the points gained at a point in time, so you can win a "hard" game but then lose those points if three weeks later the team you beat drops into the bottom half and become an "easy" game.

Sorry, but if those two factors alone aren't enough to devalue his formula then I don't know what is...

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Cobbler78
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« Reply #396 on: October 27, 2017, 10:09:57 am »

Is that based on your theory or just gut feeling?

You're deflecting from the actual question. Let's make this simple....

Which is the tougher game - one against a team in say 8th place in the table, who have taken 1pt from their last 6 games, or one against a team in say 17th who have taken 14pts from their last 6 games?

A - Based on gut feeling and common sense
B - Would depend on who those 6 games were against, but as a rule of thumb the higher placed team are generally better therefore the harder option.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #397 on: October 27, 2017, 10:12:58 am »

Last five or six is the most widely used format for "recent form". The clue is in the word "form". It's used across all sports. It's widely recognised as a more reliable means of predicting outcomes as it it based on recent events.

C78s formula totally ignores it and uses a static view of a table. Using his formula a team could win 10 on the trot to attain a "hard" rating but then be on a 6 match losing slump and still be a hard game when in reality, they could have no manager and be fielding a youth team due to injuries. His formula also fails to fix the points gained at a point in time, so you can win a "hard" game but then lose those points if three weeks later the team you beat drops into the bottom half and become an "easy" game.

Sorry, but if those two factors alone aren't enough to devalue his formula then I don't know what is...



A basic league table baffles most on here, there is no need to over complicate this further.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #398 on: October 27, 2017, 10:39:11 am »

TBF, the only thing baffling people is your denial and asinine obstinance in the face of anyone who dares to challenge your thinking...
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #399 on: October 27, 2017, 11:41:12 am »

TBF, the only thing baffling people is your denial and asinine obstinance in the face of anyone who dares to challenge your thinking...

Not at all, challenge away, I’ll just point you in the direction of the facts.

We have gained 0.375 points per game (3 points in 8 games) against teams in the top half, compared to 1.286 points per game (9 points in 7 games) vs teams in the bottom half.

Statistically we gain more points against the lower placed teams (easier games) this has been the case all season and will be the case for the rest of the season. I struggle to see your argument that this is incorrect.
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