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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 64911 times)
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just.reading
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« Reply #580 on: December 22, 2017, 07:54:33 am »

Oh, so you did put money on us making the playoffs then when that was the projection based on stats? My mistake...
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Shoemaker
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« Reply #581 on: December 22, 2017, 07:55:44 am »

No takers I see. I can only assume that you all agree with me now. Shame it took so long for the penny to drop.
Il take the bet on Wigan (H) and Peterborough (A)
On the proviso that you put £50 on with me on Wimbledon (H) and Oldham (A) which you would have definitely backed anyway under the failsafe system you have concocted.

As I cannot actually lose I think it’s only fair to donate any winnings to the trust.
If you could see your way to doing that then it would be great and a very kind gesture that would add some interest to this boring thread.

Your unswerving dedication to your system which has proved so accurate will probably not cost you a payout but it’s good to see you offer the bets and it’s all in a good cause.

Fair play to you for risking your own cash
That shows great faith in your system.
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Glastonbury Cobbler
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« Reply #582 on: December 22, 2017, 08:16:10 am »

This has nothing to do with Maths, it’s about common sense, so I understand why you’re struggling. Just read the other, simpler, threads and ignore this one if it’s confusing you or causing you stress.

That's clearly why you are struggling to grasp anything! The lack of common sense!
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threeinabed
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« Reply #583 on: December 22, 2017, 08:17:59 am »

Il take the bet on Wigan (H) and Peterborough (A)
On the proviso that you put £50 on with me on Wimbledon (H) and Oldham (A) which you would have definitely backed anyway under the failsafe system you have concocted.

As I cannot actually lose I think it’s only fair to donate any winnings to the trust.
If you could see your way to doing that then it would be great and a very kind gesture that would add some interest to this boring thread.

Your unswerving dedication to your system which has proved so accurate will probably not cost you a payout but it’s good to see you offer the bets and it’s all in a good cause.

Fair play to you for risking your own cash
That shows great faith in your system.

you are my new favourite cobblers fan
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The Rauldinho
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« Reply #584 on: December 22, 2017, 08:27:40 am »

Il take the bet on Wigan (H) and Peterborough (A)
On the proviso that you put £50 on with me on Wimbledon (H) and Oldham (A) which you would have definitely backed anyway under the failsafe system you have concocted.
As I cannot actually lose I think it’s only fair to donate any winnings to the trust.
If you could see your way to doing that then it would be great and a very kind gesture that would add some interest to this boring thread.
Your unswerving dedication to your system which has proved so accurate will probably not cost you a payout but it’s good to see you offer the bets and it’s all in a good cause.
Fair play to you for risking your own cash
That shows great faith in your system.

This seems very fair, and a nice gesture to donate any profit to the trust.

Will be interesting to see if the offer is accepted, cannot see any reason why it wouldn't be.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #585 on: December 22, 2017, 09:02:20 am »

Speaking of dodging the point, you’ll accept the following bet as there is no such thing as easier or harder ganes(no draws)

I bet you £50 per game we lose to Blackburn (h), Wigan (h) Blackburn (a) Charlton (h), Peterborough (a), Bradford (a), Sc***horpe (a) and the that we beat Gillingham (H), Plymouth (H), Rochdale (H), MK Dons (h) and Wimbledon (a)

Put your money where your mouth is if my theory is rubbish, that goes for anyone.

The problem here is that I don't disagree that the first seven games you list are likely to be tougher, or the latter 5 easier. that's because you are using the CURRENT league position. Noone on here disagrees with you on that point. Noone disagrees that playing a team in the top four should normally be tougher than playing one in the bottom four. We all get that, so you can drop that part of the argument, there's really no battle to win on that score.

The issue I've had and always had (without wavering in any way) is that when you do your "projections" you do not consistently use the results based on the table at the time was played. If we beat a top team in October and you recalculate in December and that team is now in the bottom, you change your assessment. You say we haven't beaten a top team, even though back in October you said we did! This is the issue. Please learn to separate the two.

You are RIGHT on the first issue although tbh, it's impossible to be wrong. You are most definitely WRONG on the second.

It would be great if you could just address the second issue rather than harping on about the first and totally avoiding the part where your theory falls flat on its face. I have explained this very clearly several times now, so won't be bothering again.

As for the bet, no thanks. I'm not the stupid one. And you shouldn't either as its backing against your own theory. Half those teams could be in the opposite half of the table in six games time Smiley
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bri77
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« Reply #586 on: December 22, 2017, 11:13:21 am »

It’s “our” two heaviest defeats.

Concentrating on a typo instead of responding to the points, classic sign of having lost the argument.

Unlucky, you kept your trolling / ignorance / arrogance (delete as appropriate) going for a while but unravelled yourself in the end.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #587 on: December 22, 2017, 11:44:34 am »

Il take the bet on Wigan (H) and Peterborough (A)
On the proviso that you put £50 on with me on Wimbledon (H) and Oldham (A) which you would have definitely backed anyway under the failsafe system you have concocted.

As I cannot actually lose I think it’s only fair to donate any winnings to the trust.
If you could see your way to doing that then it would be great and a very kind gesture that would add some interest to this boring thread.

Your unswerving dedication to your system which has proved so accurate will probably not cost you a payout but it’s good to see you offer the bets and it’s all in a good cause.

Fair play to you for risking your own cash
That shows great faith in your system.

Where did I say it was fail safe?

Fancy the bet, or not? If not, why not.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #588 on: December 22, 2017, 11:45:21 am »

Oh, so you did put money on us making the playoffs then when that was the projection based on stats? My mistake...

Where did I say we would definitely make the playoffs?

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Cobbler78
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« Reply #589 on: December 22, 2017, 11:46:41 am »

The problem here is that I don't disagree that the first seven games you list are likely to be tougher, or the latter 5 easier. that's because you are using the CURRENT league position. Noone on here disagrees with you on that point. Noone disagrees that playing a team in the top four should normally be tougher than playing one in the bottom four. We all get that, so you can drop that part of the argument, there's really no battle to win on that score.

The issue I've had and always had (without wavering in any way) is that when you do your "projections" you do not consistently use the results based on the table at the time was played. If we beat a top team in October and you recalculate in December and that team is now in the bottom, you change your assessment. You say we haven't beaten a top team, even though back in October you said we did! This is the issue. Please learn to separate the two.

You are RIGHT on the first issue although tbh, it's impossible to be wrong. You are most definitely WRONG on the second.

It would be great if you could just address the second issue rather than harping on about the first and totally avoiding the part where your theory falls flat on its face. I have explained this very clearly several times now, so won't be bothering again.

As for the bet, no thanks. I'm not the stupid one. And you shouldn't either as its backing against your own theory. Half those teams could be in the opposite half of the table in six games time Smiley

I stopped reading after your first sentence, sorry it took you this long to agree with my simple point.
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Dr Feelgood
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« Reply #590 on: December 22, 2017, 11:49:29 am »

Can't believe everyone's getting sucked into Cobb78's delusional little world.
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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down  Grin   you heard it here 1st  Wink

(I damn well hope that does not come back to haunt me)
just.reading
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« Reply #591 on: December 22, 2017, 12:05:43 pm »

Where did I say we would definitely make the playoffs?



Ah so you didn't make the bet. Thought so; hypocrite.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #592 on: December 22, 2017, 12:17:53 pm »

Ah so you didn't make the bet. Thought so; hypocrite.

Why would I? That’s not the point of this thread.

I assume you won’t be accepting my bet? And I assume you don’t fancy it because 7 of the games are significantly harder than the other 5. Which in itself proves that you agree with me.
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just.reading
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« Reply #593 on: December 22, 2017, 12:49:14 pm »

The projections are borne out of the stats you provide, so I'd say they are highly relevant to the thread. But because they didn't fit in with your argument you ignore it!
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Shoemaker
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« Reply #594 on: December 22, 2017, 13:19:07 pm »

Where did I say it was fail safe?

Fancy the bet, or not? If not, why not.
Touché
If YOU fancy the bet let me know
You are the one trying to justify a flawed system as witnessed by the Home beating by Wimbledon and the away gubbing by lowly Oldham(only conceded five)
I would imagine these were by your systems intricate workings so called easy games....
I did try explaining moons ago why constant variables within the game mean that each game must be judged on recent form only and not by occuracies from months earlier(how football odds compilers work),but you seem in blind denial of this.
Don’t take my word for it,send off your system to a couple of bookmakers and see if they change their betting strategies...
Under your system you’d have had us favourites to win at oldham Shocked ;
Don’t apply for any odds compilers job anytime soon!!

Anyway I’m happy to take the bet on the terms that you are two bets down via the Wimbledon and Oldham shocks and your distinct lack of any basic football odds compiling may result in a bonus for the trust.

Your self belief in this flawed system is in some ways admirable and I’m sure the trust would be more than happy for you to donate if necessary.

I hope this helps explain the realities of football odds compiling for you
Ie) Peterborough could end up in administration selling all their players before we play them thus being forced to play a youth team and thus getting walloped by the resurgent cobblers
VOILA £50 to the trust because your system takes into account factors from too far back to have a bearing on the here and now.

I’ve tried to tell you how football odds are actually compiled in the real world by people who earn a wage doing it and companies who employ them to do so knowing that vast sums of money are at risk if their strategies regards odds compiling fail.

This isn’t a personal dig at a fellow fan just an attempt to let you know what really goes on and why your system is flawed.


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Cobbler78
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« Reply #595 on: December 22, 2017, 13:48:45 pm »

Touché
If YOU fancy the bet let me know
You are the one trying to justify a flawed system as witnessed by the Home beating by Wimbledon and the away gubbing by lowly Oldham(only conceded five)
I would imagine these were by your systems intricate workings so called easy games....
I did try explaining moons ago why constant variables within the game mean that each game must be judged on recent form only and not by occuracies from months earlier(how football odds compilers work),but you seem in blind denial of this.
Don’t take my word for it,send off your system to a couple of bookmakers and see if they change their betting strategies...
Under your system you’d have had us favourites to win at oldham Shocked ;
Don’t apply for any odds compilers job anytime soon!!

Anyway I’m happy to take the bet on the terms that you are two bets down via the Wimbledon and Oldham shocks and your distinct lack of any basic football odds compiling may result in a bonus for the trust.

Your self belief in this flawed system is in some ways admirable and I’m sure the trust would be more than happy for you to donate if necessary.

I hope this helps explain the realities of football odds compiling for you
Ie) Peterborough could end up in administration selling all their players before we play them thus being forced to play a youth team and thus getting walloped by the resurgent cobblers
VOILA £50 to the trust because your system takes into account factors from too far back to have a bearing on the here and now.

I’ve tried to tell you how football odds are actually compiled in the real world by people who earn a wage doing it and companies who employ them to do so knowing that vast sums of money are at risk if their strategies regards odds compiling fail.

This isn’t a personal dig at a fellow fan just an attempt to let you know what really goes on and why your system is flawed.




Say no more. You won’t accept the bet on the up coming games. We both know the reason you won’t accept, you just can’t admit it to yourself. Let’s leave it at that.
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606 Parklands_Cobbler
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« Reply #596 on: December 22, 2017, 14:07:41 pm »

Did he not just say he'll bet with you if you want to?  Evil



'If YOU fancy the bet let me know'


(if you missed that bit)
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #597 on: December 22, 2017, 14:10:59 pm »

Did he not just say he'll bet with you if you want to?  Evil



'If YOU fancy the bet let me know'


(if you missed that bit)

Try reading it properly.
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606 Parklands_Cobbler
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« Reply #598 on: December 22, 2017, 14:16:12 pm »

What? his conditions...Well I think its only fair considering you missed out two easy games in B.Rovers (A) and Oldham (H).

I wonder why you missed them out?
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« Reply #599 on: December 22, 2017, 14:17:10 pm »

Say no more. You won’t accept the bet on the up coming games. We both know the reason you won’t accept, you just can’t admit it to yourself. Let’s leave it at that.
Please make any money owing payable to the trust and thanks for the generous Christmas gesture.
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