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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 64774 times)
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DrillingCobbler
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« Reply #640 on: December 27, 2017, 12:10:39 pm »

I love this thread!  Grin

I make it:

11 points from 12 harder games.
12 points from 12 easier games.

At this point in time its not very conclusive!  Grin

Will our points from the harder games overhaul the ones from the easier games? It could happen this week folks, it could happen!  Grin
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BedsCobb
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« Reply #641 on: December 27, 2017, 13:25:30 pm »

Taken from a mathematical  study at Cambridge university into what makes some teams harder to beat.. proven to be 95% accurate over a 46 game league 1 season.
Hope this helps.

Hard games

w=big town club.
X=proper ground good infrastructure, averaging above 8000
y=money spent assembling squad.
Z=progressive owners/ civic pride in club.

Easier games.
a=small town or based near huge clubs.
b=decrepit  ground with basic facilities regular gates under 5000.
c=squad full of free journey men and loan players.
d=Owners skint or non committal, no investment in future. Little or no civic pride.

3 or more from w x y z hard game
3 or more from a b c d easy game.

Its very unusual for a club to have for example w+x+c+d or any other 2 from 2 combinations.

Cobblers are according to the study are w+b+c+d so therefore is an easy opponent.
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bri77
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« Reply #642 on: December 27, 2017, 13:40:53 pm »

Why? As I’ve said before, if you don’t like it, just don’t read or post on it.

Because locking it would be the 'online' smack in the face your constant selective posting and trolling warrants and would probably be a catastrophe for your ego.



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Cobbler78
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« Reply #643 on: December 27, 2017, 14:32:56 pm »

Because locking it would be the 'online' smack in the face your constant selective posting and trolling warrants and would probably be a catastrophe for your ego.





What selective posting? Used the same rules all season, do you know what “selective” actually means?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #644 on: December 27, 2017, 15:05:56 pm »

I love this thread!  Grin

I make it:

11 points from 12 harder games.
12 points from 12 easier games.

At this point in time its not very conclusive!  Grin

Will our points from the harder games overhaul the ones from the easier games? It could happen this week folks, it could happen!  Grin

Spot on, Projection is 22 from 24 vs top half and 22 from 22 from bottom half for a total of 44pts
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bri77
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« Reply #645 on: December 28, 2017, 07:29:11 am »

What selective posting? Used the same rules all season, do you know what “selective” actually means?

Ah bless you, have you written that much crap you can't even remember  Grin

Check back through all your drivel and you will see your SELECTIVE replies. If you are struggling with the concept of word definitions there are plenty on here that can help you out.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #646 on: December 28, 2017, 11:16:43 am »

Ah bless you, have you written that much crap you can't even remember  Grin

Check back through all your drivel and you will see your SELECTIVE replies. If you are struggling with the concept of word definitions there are plenty on here that can help you out.

Nope, you’ll have to show me what you mean.
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« Reply #647 on: December 30, 2017, 14:01:05 pm »

I stopped reading after your first sentence, sorry it took you this long to agree with my simple point.

Here you go.

Cast iron example of selective posting...

No need to thank me...
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WasRambo
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« Reply #648 on: December 30, 2017, 14:04:11 pm »

The problem here is that I don't disagree that the first seven games you list are likely to be tougher, or the latter 5 easier. that's because you are using the CURRENT league position. Noone on here disagrees with you on that point. Noone disagrees that playing a team in the top four should normally be tougher than playing one in the bottom four. We all get that, so you can drop that part of the argument, there's really no battle to win on that score.

The issue I've had and always had (without wavering in any way) is that when you do your "projections" you do not consistently use the results based on the table at the time was played. If we beat a top team in October and you recalculate in December and that team is now in the bottom, you change your assessment. You say we haven't beaten a top team, even though back in October you said we did! This is the issue. Please learn to separate the two.

You are RIGHT on the first issue although tbh, it's impossible to be wrong. You are most definitely WRONG on the second.

It would be great if you could just address the second issue rather than harping on about the first and totally avoiding the part where your theory falls flat on its face. I have explained this very clearly several times now, so won't be bothering again.

As for the bet, no thanks. I'm not the stupid one. And you shouldn't either as its backing against your own theory. Half those teams could be in the opposite half of the table in six games time Smiley

Apologies, missed the original post. You "stopped reading" as the remainder of the post destroys your theory.

Again...
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #649 on: December 30, 2017, 16:31:09 pm »

Vs Top Half 10pts in 14 games, PPG 0.714, Projection 17pts
Vs Bottom Half 13pts in 11 games, PPG 1.181, Projection 26pts
Total Projection 43pts

Thoughts, more games vs bottom half teams than top half team to come. Things will get better.
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« Reply #650 on: December 30, 2017, 17:39:32 pm »

Things won't get better though will they?

Clearly going down.
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« Reply #651 on: December 30, 2017, 18:02:57 pm »

You really believe that 78?!
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« Reply #652 on: December 30, 2017, 18:16:25 pm »

Spot on, Projection is 22 from 24 vs top half and 22 from 22 from bottom half for a total of 44pts
44 points and we are playing league 2 next season
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« Reply #653 on: December 30, 2017, 19:03:01 pm »

44 points and we are playing league 2 next season

True, let’s hope our form picks up and we can get to 55 points (at least). Hopefully two wingers and a striker in January will improve things.
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« Reply #654 on: December 30, 2017, 19:21:28 pm »

44 points and we are playing league 2 next season
Absolutely Owl, and it's a prediction of 43 points now.

Vs Top Half 10pts in 14 games, PPG 0.714, Projection 17pts
Vs Bottom Half 13pts in 11 games, PPG 1.181, Projection 26pts
Total Projection 43pts

Thoughts, more games vs bottom half teams than top half team to come. Things will get better.

Your 43 point projection from your own system seems to contrast with your concluding sentence.
Incapable of seeing your own juxtaposition C78?

Oh the irony.

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Cobbler78
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« Reply #655 on: December 30, 2017, 19:28:28 pm »

Absolutely Owl, and it's a prediction of 43 points now.

Your 43 point projection from your own system seems to contrast with your concluding sentence.
Incapable of seeing your own juxtaposition C78?

Oh the irony.



How? You’ll have to explain what you’re not understanding.
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« Reply #656 on: December 30, 2017, 19:35:08 pm »

How? You’ll have to explain what you’re not understanding.
Lol.
You really dont get it do you!
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #657 on: December 30, 2017, 19:40:27 pm »

Lol.
You really dont get it do you!

One of us doesn’t.
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« Reply #658 on: December 30, 2017, 19:46:13 pm »

One of us doesn’t.
That's right matey.
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« Reply #659 on: December 30, 2017, 22:56:47 pm »

Oh dear. We seem to have lost points from one half but gained them in the other again.

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