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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 64705 times)
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #660 on: December 31, 2017, 11:12:16 am »

Oh dear. We seem to have lost points from one half but gained them in the other again.



The rules haven’t changed.
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« Reply #661 on: December 31, 2017, 17:57:16 pm »

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GrangeParkCobbler
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« Reply #662 on: December 31, 2017, 18:04:36 pm »

How many go down from that league??!!
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The Hotel End GTA Champion 2006/7, 2007/8, 2011/12, 2012/13 and 2018/19
GrangeParkCobbler
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« Reply #663 on: December 31, 2017, 18:15:17 pm »

Top top top top top of the league!!

Most league goals conceded!!!
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Tabasco Kid
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« Reply #664 on: December 31, 2017, 18:45:42 pm »

Top top top top top of the league!!

Most league goals conceded!!!
You missed our old friends from Chesterfield...
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Were in the pipe 5 by 5.
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« Reply #665 on: December 31, 2017, 19:02:11 pm »

You missed our old friends from Chesterfield...
Think we just squeeze them out by 3.
And Ash Taylor is running away with the Pots. Our attack must be truly awful!
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« Reply #666 on: December 31, 2017, 19:32:04 pm »

Think we just squeeze them out by 3.
My apologies. I was looking at the goal difference.
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Were in the pipe 5 by 5.
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« Reply #667 on: December 31, 2017, 19:45:00 pm »

My apologies. I was looking at the goal difference.


Curse the prolific Chesterfield strikers! We could have got a double there.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #668 on: January 01, 2018, 20:47:10 pm »

Vs Top Half 10pts in 15 games, 0.667PPG, projection 16
Vs Bottom Half 13pts in 11 games, 1.181PPG, projection 22
Total projection 38pts

20 games to go, we need 30 points, luckily the majority of our remaining games are against weaker teams. I think we’ll be fine, but I’m not as confident.
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Glastonbury Cobbler
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« Reply #669 on: January 01, 2018, 20:55:16 pm »

Vs Top Half 10pts in 15 games, 0.667PPG, projection 16
Vs Bottom Half 13pts in 11 games, 1.181PPG, projection 22
Total projection 38pts

20 games to go, we need 30 points, luckily the majority of our remaining games are against weaker teams. I think we’ll be fine, but I’m not as confident.

f*** off
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #670 on: January 01, 2018, 21:02:54 pm »

**** off

No.
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guest2677
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« Reply #671 on: January 01, 2018, 21:21:06 pm »

Vs Top Half 10pts in 15 games, 0.667PPG, projection 16
Vs Bottom Half 13pts in 11 games, 1.181PPG, projection 22
Total projection 38pts

20 games to go, we need 30 points, luckily the majority of our remaining games are against weaker teams. I think we’ll be fine, but I’m not as confident.
Your jigsaw has more pieces fitted than empty spaces now C78.

Yet you conclude again 'that we'll be fine'.
An admission then that your own stats and projections are absolute sh#te, and that you don't believe there's any validity in them.
 Grin

It's all your own work C78.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #672 on: January 01, 2018, 21:33:10 pm »

Your jigsaw has more pieces fitted than empty spaces now C78.

Yet you conclude again 'that we'll be fine'.
An admission then that your own stats and projections are absolute sh#te, and that you don't believe there's any validity in them.
 Grin

It's all your own work C78.

No idea what you’re talking about, what’s this jigsaw you keep banging on about? Did you ask for one but not get it from Santa?
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Dr Feelgood
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« Reply #673 on: January 02, 2018, 16:51:39 pm »

No idea what you’re talking about, what’s this jigsaw you keep banging on about? Did you ask for one but not get it from Santa?
This one

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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down  Grin   you heard it here 1st  Wink

(I damn well hope that does not come back to haunt me)
Cobbler78
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« Reply #674 on: January 07, 2018, 14:05:34 pm »

Yet another win in an easier game yesterday

10 points in 15 games vs top half, projection 16 points
16 points in 12 games vs bottom half teams, projection 29 points
Total Projection 45 points

I'm still very confident we'll beat the drop, always have been.
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« Reply #675 on: January 07, 2018, 14:53:43 pm »

Yet another win in an easier game yesterday

10 points in 15 games vs top half, projection 16 points
16 points in 12 games vs bottom half teams, projection 29 points
Total Projection 45 points

I'm still very confident we'll beat the drop, always have been.
Really conclusive C78.

For 'yet another win' read 4  Grin
For parity, that equals our record of losses in the easier games (4). Although non of our wins have been by 0-6 or 5-1.
Just another angle matey.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #676 on: January 07, 2018, 21:26:06 pm »

Really conclusive C78.

For 'yet another win' read 4  Grin
For parity, that equals our record of losses in the easier games (4). Although non of our wins have been by 0-6 or 5-1.
Just another angle matey.

The only angle that matters is the points per game, we get twice as many points per game vs bottom half teams compared to those currently in the top half, conclusive proof.
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Glastonbury Cobbler
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« Reply #677 on: January 07, 2018, 21:39:26 pm »

The only angle that matters is the points per game, we get twice as many points per game vs bottom half teams compared to those currently in the top half, conclusive proof.



Hahahahahahaha
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WasRambo
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« Reply #678 on: January 08, 2018, 09:24:35 am »

The theory hasn't exactly fared to well over the past month or so has it so C78 must be ecstatic we finally got some points from one of his easier games.

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WasRambo
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« Reply #679 on: January 08, 2018, 10:43:20 am »

Apologies in advance for crazy formatting......


C78, your results are incorrect, though admittedly not by much.

Seeing as you couldn't be ar$ed (or you knew the outcome) here is the job done properly.

League positions stated are immediately prior to kick off, so whether a team is top half or not is accurate at the time of playing and consequently, the points gained are based on that position - they don't "drift" like in your weird method:

                                                                                 Position prior to game   Cumulative points   v Top   v Bottom
                                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                            11         15

06 Jan 2018   Northampton Town v Southend United           3-1   W            17                            26                                    3
01 Jan 2018   Northampton Town v Wigan Athletic           0-1   L             1                            23                      0   
30 Dec 2017   Portsmouth v Northampton Town           3-1   L             7                            23                      0   
26 Dec 2017   Doncaster Rovers v Northampton Town   3-0   L            14                            23                                    0
23 Dec 2017   Northampton Town v Blackburn Rovers   1-1   D             3                            23                                         1   
16 Dec 2017   Northampton Town v Walsall                   2-1   W           11                            22                      3   
09 Dec 2017   Oldham Athletic v Northampton Town           5-1   L           18                            19                                    0
25 Nov 2017   Northampton Town v Bury                           0-0   D           24                            19                                    1
21 Nov 2017   Plymouth Argyle v Northampton Town           2-0   L           23                            18                                    0
18 Nov 2017   Northampton Town v Sc***horpe United   0-3   L             5                            18                      0   
11 Nov 2017   Oxford United v Northampton Town           1-2   W           10                            18                 3
28 Oct 2017   Northampton Town v Blackpool                   1-0   W             9                            15                 3
21 Oct 2017   Gillingham v Northampton Town                   1-2   W           22                            12                                    3
17 Oct 2017   Rochdale v Northampton Town                   2-2   D           20                              9                                    1
14 Oct 2017   Northampton Town v AFC Wimbledon           0-1   L           21                              8                                    0
07 Oct 2017   Northampton Town v Bristol Rovers           0-6   L           14                              8                                    0
30 Sep 2017   Rotherham United v Northampton Town   1-0   L           10                              8                      0   
26 Sep 2017   Milton Keynes Dons v Northampton Town   0-0   D           11                              8                      1   
23 Sep 2017   Northampton Town v Bradford City           0-1   L             4                              7                      0   
19 Sep 2017   Wigan Athletic v Northampton Town           1-0   L             5                              7                      0   
16 Sep 2017   Southend United v Northampton Town           2-2   D           19                              7                                    1
12 Sep 2017   Northampton Town v Portsmouth           3-1   W           14                              6                                    3
09 Sep 2017   Northampton Town v Doncaster Rovers   1-0   W           13                              3                                    3
26 Aug 2017   Northampton Town v Peterborough United   1-4   L             2                              0                      0   
19 Aug 2017   Charlton Athletic v Northampton Town           4-1   L           13                              0                                    0
12 Aug 2017   Northampton Town v Fleetwood Town           0-1   L             1                              0                      0   
05 Aug 2017   Shrewsbury Town v Northampton Town   1-0   L             0                              0                              N/A   
                     
                     
https://www.11v11.com/league-tables/league-one/05-january-2018/

It will be interesting to see if you are big enough to own up and accept that the above is a more accurate method of calculating points gained relative to league position. I doubt you will though.

And although this method shows very similar results to your flawed method,    the thing is does point out most obviously is this - you cannot project even nearly accurately how many points we might gain in the future - at least not using the above results. You simply do not know with any certainty where a team will be positioned in the league by the time we play them, so it's impossible to project we'll get x number of points from top sides because you don't know who will be top.

Incidentally, this took 30 mins to knock up using the website linked above. Pity, if you'd paid similar due diligence your views may have gotten the credibility you crave. Sadly, everyone bar none on this thread thinks you're just a stubborn sad loser.

Glad to be of service Smiley                  
« Last Edit: January 08, 2018, 10:47:00 am by WasRambo » Report Spam   Logged
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