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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 64726 times)
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WasRambo
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« Reply #800 on: January 29, 2018, 08:46:13 am »

he doesn't.
i think you need to check how you do simple sums.
.875 x 24 = 21
1.357 x 22 = 30


Fair comment, I can see that now. Maybe coincidence but they both work out the same

0.87500 x   24.00000 =   21.00000
1.35700 x   22.00000 =   29.85400
      
0.87500 x   23.00000 =   20.12500
1.35700 x   23.00000 =   31.21100

Either way, both are flawed. You don't know where we will finish so using 24 / 22 cannot be accurate until final game and I explained previously why 23 / 23 can't be used.

You're backing the wrong horse...
« Last Edit: January 29, 2018, 08:50:57 am by WasRambo » Report Spam   Logged
WasRambo
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« Reply #801 on: January 29, 2018, 08:48:32 am »

The next three fixtures we have against teams towards the bottom may be extremely tough because we are expected to create chances and win against sides that are in good form .
It will be another type of test after doing well in recent weeks .

Exactly this. Top half / bottom half is is no way a reliable indicator of the probability of a result.

Take Bradford, quoted by C78 as being "one of the toughest of the season". Beaten by us and stuffed 4 nowt by a Wimbledon side who'd only scored 9 goals away all season!
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threeinabed
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« Reply #802 on: January 29, 2018, 09:06:04 am »

Exactly this. Top half / bottom half is is no way a reliable indicator of the probability of a result.

Take Bradford, quoted by C78 as being "one of the toughest of the season". Beaten by us and stuffed 4 nowt by a Wimbledon side who'd only scored 9 goals away all season!

it probably isn't - but currently using this system it is.

i hate defending him as well - this is ruining my morning!!!!!  Grin

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memyhead
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« Reply #803 on: January 29, 2018, 09:48:28 am »

There are no easier games to come imo

L1 is the toughest it has been for many a season & after our awful start we still have it all to do to stay up...if we continue improving though we've got a decent chance.

Saturday is massive as I think Rochdale are in a false position & will improve as the season progresses....

Hopefully, Wigan can beat them tomorrow....
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Wolvo
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« Reply #804 on: January 29, 2018, 09:53:32 am »

There are no easier games to come imo

No easier games than Blackburn away? Mental.
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Irchy cob
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« Reply #805 on: January 29, 2018, 10:02:15 am »

There are no easier games to come imo

L1 is the toughest it has been for many a season & after our awful start we still have it all to do to stay up...if we continue improving though we've got a decent chance.

Saturday is massive as I think Rochdale are in a false position & will improve as the season progresses....

Hopefully, Wigan can beat them tomorrow....

Exactly - I hate the term but Saturday’s match is a real 6 pointer.  They haven’t won away all season which is what worries me especially with our past record against teams going through similar runs. It sounds like they played well on Saturday against Millwall and were unlucky not to win, as the previous poster says hopefully Wigan will beat them tomorrow and that will be one of their games in hand out of the way.
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« Reply #806 on: January 29, 2018, 12:07:40 pm »

Exactly - I hate the term but Saturday’s match is a real 6 pointer.  They haven’t won away all season which is what worries me especially with our past record against teams going through similar runs. It sounds like they played well on Saturday against Millwall and were unlucky not to win, as the previous poster says hopefully Wigan will beat them tomorrow and that will be one of their games in hand out of the way.

Postponed, waterlogged pitch...
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #807 on: January 29, 2018, 12:15:06 pm »

Argument....

Just about sums you up.

So, another question around your theory...

Given there are 24 teams in the division each half consists of 12 teams (simple maths even you can follow...) I believe you base your projection on 23 times each of your points per game (calculation of which already proven to be flawed).

You do realise that we will occupy one of the 24 spots and therefore take up one of the 12 spots from one half. Therefore that is the first reason you can't just multiply by 23 and expect a decent projection.

Secondly, 23 is an odd number so stands to reason it's not usable as a factor in any calculation as if you factor it would mean you've played a team that is in both halves of the table.

And finally, for the umpteenth time, to do any of this you need to know which half of the table we will finish in to be able to even start getting a decent projection.

I know all of this will exceed the capacity of your tiny brain And even if it didn't, your limitless ego would not allow you to admit but if you really want talk about losing an argument, as Michael Jackson said, start with the man in the mirror.

Take a look at yourself
Make the change

Rambo, you’ve assumed again haven’t you. I thought I’d taught you about this?

Try doing the Maths and see how it’s calculated.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #808 on: January 29, 2018, 12:16:37 pm »

I think you assume too much. Pretty sure he uses a simple 23x not 24/22. I could be wrong but if you break his maths down the projections divide by 23.

And to be fair, his goalposts move every week as teams switch between top and bottom halves.

In any case, it should be fairly clear by now that the theory is not the issue. The issue is his attitude, how he believes he's giving everyone an "education" even though it's an education we already received at primary school

Rambo, mate, stop it. You’re coming across really thick!
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Irchy cob
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« Reply #809 on: January 29, 2018, 13:43:01 pm »

Postponed, waterlogged pitch...

Just noticed that, I wonder how hard they tried to get the match on with Wigan in such good form and the transfer window closing the next day!
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Joes Sweet Left Foot
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« Reply #810 on: January 29, 2018, 18:28:17 pm »

Of our next 3 games, Rochdale (H), Wimbledon (A) and Gillingham (H), the latter two are in the top half of the form table (last 6 games) and therefore should be considered harder games just now.

Gillingham are now 10th. What a difference a couple of weeks can make, if only we had played them when they were easy meat.
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« Reply #811 on: January 29, 2018, 18:31:58 pm »

Gillingham are now 10th. What a difference a couple of weeks can make, if only we had played them when they were easy meat.

They could well be in three games time.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #812 on: January 29, 2018, 19:13:40 pm »

Of our next 3 games, Rochdale (H), Wimbledon (A) and Gillingham (H), the latter two are in the top half of the form table (last 6 games) and therefore should be considered harder games just now.

Gillingham are now 10th. What a difference a couple of weeks can make, if only we had played them when they were easy meat.

Should be, however, we could easily get 9 points from these 3 games, I’d be happy with 5 as a minimum though.
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Joes Sweet Left Foot
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« Reply #813 on: January 29, 2018, 19:29:44 pm »

If you consider that perhaps only the top 8 teams can be considered difficult opponents and the rest are pretty much on a par, then perhaps the following table displays the true sentiment of Cobbler78 theory and does show a correlation between league position and points haul.

 
Opponent Home Away
Wigan L L
Shrewsbury L
Blackburn  D D
Sc***horpe  L  
Bradford L W
Rotherham L
Charlton
Peterborough L
 
Portsmouth    W L
Gillingham            W
Bristol Rovers 
Oxford                    W
Plymouth               L
Doncaster        W L
Fleetwood          
Wimbledon      L    
Southend        W D
Walsall           W   
Blackpool        W   
MK Dons          W    D
Oldham                L
Rochdale          D
Bury                  D      

Of the 11 games against the top 8 opponents we have gained just 5 pts , averaging just under half a point a game.
Of the 19 games against the rest we have secured 28 pts at just over 1.5 pts a game.

Now no one can confidently predict what the final places will be, but it is just possible that the top 8 will finish top 8 although I suspect Portsmouth might leapfrog the posh and Bradford appear to be in freefall.

Using the same calculation basis of points per game for the remaining matches (5 games against the top sides yielding another 2/3 pts, and 11 games against the rest yielding 16/17 pts), then the final tally could be anywhere between 51 and 53 pts. 

But hey its only a guess.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2018, 19:34:34 pm by Joes Sweet Left Foot » Report Spam   Logged
Cobbler78
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« Reply #814 on: January 29, 2018, 19:46:07 pm »

If you consider that perhaps only the top 8 teams can be considered difficult opponents and the rest are pretty much on a par, then perhaps the following table displays the true sentiment of Cobbler78 theory and does show a correlation between league position and points haul.

 
Opponent Home Away
Wigan L L
Shrewsbury L
Blackburn  D D
Sc***horpe  L  
Bradford L W
Rotherham L
Charlton
Peterborough L
 
Portsmouth    W L
Gillingham            W
Bristol Rovers 
Oxford                    W
Plymouth               L
Doncaster        W L
Fleetwood          
Wimbledon      L    
Southend        W D
Walsall           W   
Blackpool        W   
MK Dons          W    D
Oldham                L
Rochdale          D
Bury                  D      

Of the 11 games against the top 8 opponents we have gained just 5 pts , averaging just under half a point a game.
Of the 19 games against the rest we have secured 28 pts at just over 1.5 pts a game.

Now no one can confidently predict what the final places will be, but it is just possible that the top 8 will finish top 8 although I suspect Portsmouth might leapfrog the posh and Bradford appear to be in freefall.

Using the same calculation basis of points per game for the remaining matches (5 games against the top sides yielding another 2/3 pts, and 11 games against the rest yielding 16/17 pts), then the final tally could be anywhere between 51 and 53 pts. 

But hey its only a guess.


Who’d have thought it?
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bri77
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« Reply #815 on: January 30, 2018, 07:33:34 am »

So our three away wins this season have come against the top half of the table, no away wins against the easier half of the league. Thank god the easier games to come is so straightforward.

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WasRambo
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« Reply #816 on: January 30, 2018, 07:51:39 am »

C78, I'm not going to rise to your baiting as I know I'm not thick. It's quite ironic you make such a statement given nothing you are saying suggests any great intelligence or insight. You're just needy and crave attention, whether it be positive or negative and you don't seem to care how rude you are in pursuit of it.

Any value this thread ever had (such as it was) is now lost among your over-inflated ego.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #817 on: January 30, 2018, 10:20:17 am »

C78, I'm not going to rise to your baiting as I know I'm not thick. It's quite ironic you make such a statement given nothing you are saying suggests any great intelligence or insight. You're just needy and crave attention, whether it be positive or negative and you don't seem to care how rude you are in pursuit of it.

Any value this thread ever had (such as it was) is now lost among your over-inflated ego.

I’m not saying you are thick, I’m saying your posts and comments make you sound thick.

You do make one valid point though. This really is a very simple and logical theory, however, look at all of the posters who fail to grasp common sense.
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Saint Cobbler
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« Reply #818 on: January 30, 2018, 10:30:07 am »



Gillingham are now 10th. What a difference a couple of weeks can make, if only we had played them when they were easy meat.
We did
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« Reply #819 on: January 30, 2018, 10:55:08 am »

I’m not saying you are thick, I’m saying your posts and comments make you sound thick.

You do make one valid point though. This really is a very simple and logical theory, however, look at all of the posters who fail to grasp common sense.

Finally, Im glad you said its too simple. Thats the problem!
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