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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 64785 times)
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #820 on: January 30, 2018, 11:51:47 am »

Finally, Im glad you said its too simple. Thats the problem!

It’s accurate though. I didn’t say it was too simple, however, maybe it’s the people who are too simple.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2018, 11:53:23 am by Cobbler78 » Report Spam   Logged
WasRambo
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« Reply #821 on: January 30, 2018, 18:28:37 pm »

We did

Nope. Gillingham are now a hard game. Even though they were easy when we played them. We've now magically gained 3 "hard" points from a game that was originally declared "easy"

And I'm the thick one around here apparently Roll Eyes
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #822 on: January 31, 2018, 09:29:10 am »


And I'm the thick one around here apparently Roll Eyes

Hard to disagree with this.
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« Reply #823 on: January 31, 2018, 09:39:04 am »

Signs and symptoms of narcissistic personality disorder


- Grandiose sense of self-importance. ...
- Lives in a fantasy world that supports their delusions of grandeur. ...
- Needs constant praise and admiration. ...
- Sense of entitlement. ...
- Exploits others without guilt or shame. ...
- Frequently demeans, intimidates, bullies, or belittles others.
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« Reply #824 on: January 31, 2018, 09:55:30 am »

Signs and symptoms of narcissistic personality disorder


- Grandiose sense of self-importance. ...
- Lives in a fantasy world that supports their delusions of grandeur. ...
- Needs constant praise and admiration. ...
- Sense of entitlement. ...
- Exploits others without guilt or shame. ...
- Frequently demeans, intimidates, bullies, or belittles others.

Leave Feely out of this!
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Wolvo
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« Reply #825 on: January 31, 2018, 10:29:51 am »

Nope. Gillingham are now a hard game. Even though they were easy when we played them. We've now magically gained 3 "hard" points from a game that was originally declared "easy"

And I'm the thick one around here apparently Roll Eyes

Of course, it is updated as the league table becomes more true. The final league table is the only table that counts/doesn't lie.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #826 on: January 31, 2018, 10:57:40 am »

Of course, it is updated as the league table becomes more true. The final league table is the only table that counts/doesn't lie.

Still missing the point that a game can't change from being hard to easy or vice versa after it has been played. The whole premise of C78's theory is that we'll get more points against bottom half teams than we will against top ones (which is a fairly safe assumption - and yes, he is making assumptions even though he castigates anyone else for doing so).

So, to get an accurate indication of how we are fairing against teams from either half, you have to record the points gained at the time we played them. You can't say we beat a top half team one day and then change it 6 weeks later if they've dropped in the bottom half.

Not sure how many times this needs explaining.
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Wolvo
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« Reply #827 on: January 31, 2018, 11:10:26 am »

So, to get an accurate indication of how we are fairing against teams from either half, you have to record the points gained at the time we played them. You can't say we beat a top half team one day and then change it 6 weeks later if they've dropped in the bottom half.

Of course you can. An easy team could have just faced 4 easier teams and have pushed themselves into a false position.

As the weeks go on, you'll see the movements becoming less frequent as the true table nears.

It's honestly not that hard.
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« Reply #828 on: January 31, 2018, 11:24:07 am »

Still missing the point that a game can't change from being hard to easy or vice versa after it has been played. The whole premise of C78's theory is that we'll get more points against bottom half teams than we will against top ones (which is a fairly safe assumption - and yes, he is making assumptions even though he castigates anyone else for doing so).

So, to get an accurate indication of how we are fairing against teams from either half, you have to record the points gained at the time we played them. You can't say we beat a top half team one day and then change it 6 weeks later if they've dropped in the bottom half.

Not sure how many times this needs explaining.

cobbler78 has said from the off how his system was going to work - no point still arguing against it.

it is based on the system that after all the games have been played, we will have gained more points from teams finishing in the bottom half than in the top half.

he is therefore updating us with the position as if the league finished on the day after each game.

no one is saying it is a flawless system - but this is his system and he has never changed from how it is worked out.

continually arguing the same point about form against it is verging on insanity as he said from the off he isn't basing it on form.
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« Reply #829 on: January 31, 2018, 11:25:00 am »

In all the many seasons I have been watching football it goes like this - there are one or two teams at the top that are clearly better than the pack and if you are in the pack or below unlikely to beat, similarly there are one or two teams at the bottom who are complete s***e and you are likely to beat - in both cases there are occasional surprise results - as for the other 80% any team can beat any other team and if form was a true accurate predictor fixed odds betting would yield the punter following a system of marginal form advantage a handsome living - it doesn't..........
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Joes Sweet Left Foot
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« Reply #830 on: January 31, 2018, 11:33:17 am »

Pretty much agree with this. Form is a much better indicator than league position, but all winning/losing streaks eventually come to an end. This weekend however many teams will be parading new signings so even form may be a dubious indicator.
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« Reply #831 on: January 31, 2018, 11:38:10 am »

Good last point - I have no doubt the squad now assembled will go on to better things this season and hopefully much better things the season afterwards but just to manage expectations it may not all gel together on Saturday and the Rochdale drubbing I suspect some are predicting may not happen.
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« Reply #832 on: January 31, 2018, 12:34:07 pm »

cobbler78 has said from the off how his system was going to work - no point still arguing against it.

it is based on the system that after all the games have been played, we will have gained more points from teams finishing in the bottom half than in the top half.

he is therefore updating us with the position as if the league finished on the day after each game.

no one is saying it is a flawless system - but this is his system and he has never changed from how it is worked out.

continually arguing the same point about form against it is verging on insanity as he said from the off he isn't basing it on form.


I'm absolutely fine with the overarching principle, in particular your first sentence. I've never disagreed with that and have frequently actively agreed with it. What I have repeatedly called out is the projection element or more to the point, the inconsistency in it.

I agree - we are more likely to take points from lower placed teams. This is not inherently flawed in its logic. The flaw is in how C78 changes a games difficulty rating after it has been played and projects using these changes. If he had just left it at the initial statement, ie. At season end we'll have taken more points from the bottom half than top then that would be fine. Noone would disagree as it's a flairly bland and obvious statement. But he hasn't, he's made a projection using unstable factors. Now that is entirely his right of course. The issue is how he insists these are facts and everyone else is stupid not to see it. He refuses to answer any question or challenge and only replies with smug insults. He does actually believe his projections are flawless, dismissing all the factors that people have put forward such as form, signings, injury, etc.

I have tried to illustrate this through challenging his theory, I've given every opportunity for him to respond but he can't / won't because he's dug his hole and is too proud to climb out. It's the classic "I think I'm right so everyone else must be wrong" just embellished with nasty insults and using every chance to deflect from the actual challenge and even resorting to critique of grammar and spelling to make himself look better.

Anyway, I'm past caring about the theoretical element of this now as you're right, it's madness to keep trying to reason with someone who is unwilling or incapable of entering into a reasoned debate
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« Reply #833 on: January 31, 2018, 12:43:46 pm »

Anyway, I'm past caring about the theoretical element of this now as you're right, it's madness to keep trying to reason with someone who is unwilling or incapable of entering into a reasoned debate

correct - he is completely bonkers
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« Reply #834 on: January 31, 2018, 13:11:00 pm »

I'm absolutely fine with the overarching principle, in particular your first sentence. I've never disagreed with that and have frequently actively agreed with it. What I have repeatedly called out is the projection element or more to the point, the inconsistency in it.

I agree - we are more likely to take points from lower placed teams. This is not inherently flawed in its logic. The flaw is in how C78 changes a games difficulty rating after it has been played and projects using these changes. If he had just left it at the initial statement, ie. At season end we'll have taken more points from the bottom half than top then that would be fine. Noone would disagree as it's a flairly bland and obvious statement. But he hasn't, he's made a projection using unstable factors. Now that is entirely his right of course. The issue is how he insists these are facts and everyone else is stupid not to see it. He refuses to answer any question or challenge and only replies with smug insults. He does actually believe his projections are flawless, dismissing all the factors that people have put forward such as form, signings, injury, etc.



I have tried to illustrate this through challenging his theory, I've given every opportunity for him to respond but he can't / won't because he's dug his hole and is too proud to climb out. It's the classic "I think I'm right so everyone else must be wrong" just embellished with nasty insults and using every chance to deflect from the actual challenge and even resorting to critique of grammar and spelling to make himself look better.

Anyway, I'm past caring about the theoretical element of this now as you're right, it's madness to keep trying to reason with someone who is unwilling or incapable of entering into a reasoned debate

He would just study your post, search for some incorrect grammar or spelling and then just quote that. There wouldn't be a rational reply to your valid points.
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« Reply #835 on: January 31, 2018, 13:26:55 pm »

Pretty much agree with this. Form is a much better indicator than league position, but all winning/losing streaks eventually come to an end. This weekend however many teams will be parading new signings so even form may be a dubious indicator.

This method is based on form... just over a longer term set of results.
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« Reply #836 on: January 31, 2018, 13:58:42 pm »

correct - he is completely bonkers

He'll be out howling at the Blue Blood Moon tonight?
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #837 on: January 31, 2018, 17:23:06 pm »

Just to clear up any lingering confusion (to be fair, it’s only really ThreeInABed and Bimbo who are struggling)

I have only ever posted facts.

1) Our current points per game against top half teams compared to bottom half team
2) If the tread continued it creates the projection
3) My prediction (different to projection) has always been 12th and 60points, I have never wavered from this (my reasoning has always been we have Easier games to come)

Read back over the thread, look at all of the doom and gloom merchants who had us relegated in September.
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« Reply #838 on: January 31, 2018, 20:04:59 pm »

Just to clear up any lingering confusion (to be fair, it’s only really ThreeInABed and Bimbo who are struggling)

I have only ever posted facts.

1) Our current points per game against top half teams compared to bottom half team
2) If the tread continued it creates the projection
3) My prediction (different to projection) has always been 12th and 60points, I have never wavered from this (my reasoning has always been we have Easier games to come)

Read back over the thread, look at all of the doom and gloom merchants who had us relegated in September.

In fairness your projection had us getting 31 points not so long back. Not sure then how you can never waver from 60 pts when your theory is so factual.

Re point 1. I accept how you work this out, flaws and all. It's basically just a bit of a guess at the final league table. Don't worry, after matchday 45 you'll have a one in three chance of getting the final points right.

Re point 2. Not sure what you mean by tread and wouldn't dare to assume you actually mean trend.

Re point 3. Why waste everyones time with your ill-calculated projections if you're so sure where we'll end up?

Ahhh. Keeps the attention cravings at bay...
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #839 on: February 01, 2018, 13:31:03 pm »

In fairness your projection had us getting 31 points not so long back. Not sure then how you can never waver from 60 pts when your theory is so factual.

Re point 1. I accept how you work this out, flaws and all. It's basically just a bit of a guess at the final league table. Don't worry, after matchday 45 you'll have a one in three chance of getting the final points right.

Re point 2. Not sure what you mean by tread and wouldn't dare to assume you actually mean trend.

Re point 3. Why waste everyones time with your ill-calculated projections if you're so sure where we'll end up?

Ahhh. Keeps the attention cravings at bay...


I couldn’t bring myself to read all of this. I’ll just point you (again) to the facts. We get the majority of our points against the weaker teams. In 2 weeks time I expect us to be mid table.
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