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Stats - Easier Games to come

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Author Topic: Stats - Easier Games to come  (Read 22284 times)
WasRambo
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« Reply #940 on: February 08, 2018, 07:59:39 am »

I’d nod politely and maybe move away from Rambo at the next stop.

Oh dear. Shows just how deluded you are if you think I'm the one being referred to regarding the moon / cheese.

You need help, seriously you do...
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #941 on: February 08, 2018, 14:57:01 pm »

Latest update before the easier game at Wimbledon.

Vs Top: Played 16, 14pts, 0.875 points per game, projection 21pts
Vs Bottom: Played 15, 19pts, 1.267 points per game, projection 28pts

Total projection 49pts

Still hoping for 60points, will be tough though as we’ve dropped 8 points in home bankers vs Bury, Wimbledon and Rochdale and only had 1 miracle result away at Bradford, hopefully a few more miracle results will even this up.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2018, 18:08:26 pm by Cobbler78 » Report Spam   Logged
cj
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« Reply #942 on: February 08, 2018, 15:58:51 pm »

Latest update before the easier game at Wimbledon.

Vs Top: Played 16, 14pts, 0.875 points per game, projection 21pts
Vs Bottom: Played 15, 19pts, 1.267 points per game, projection 28pts

Total projection 49pts

Still hoping for 60points, will be tough though as we’ve dropped 7 points in home bankers vs Bury, Wimbledon and Rochdale and only had 1 miracle result away at Bradford, hopefully a few more miracle results will even this up.
Grin Grin
Blimey C78, four days before you worked out where that last piece went. Must have been a toughie.

Home 'bankers' Wimbledon Rochdale and Bury.  Grin
I think it's fair to say I'd have been massively impressed had we picked up an additional seven points from those three games on top of the solitary one we got against Bury.  Grin









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Dr Feelgood
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« Reply #943 on: February 08, 2018, 16:25:10 pm »

This is more like it. This could go on all season

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For goodness sake Doc we are NOT going down  Grin   you heard it here 1st  Wink

(I damn well hope that does not come back to haunt me)
Cobbler78
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« Reply #944 on: February 08, 2018, 16:26:48 pm »

Grin Grin
Blimey C78, four days before you worked out where that last piece went. Must have been a toughie.

Home 'bankers' Wimbledon Rochdale and Bury.  Grin
I think it's fair to say I'd have been massively impressed had we picked up an additional seven points from those three games on top of the solitary one we got against Bury.  Grin











Really? 3 of the most winnable games of the season, I don’t understand your thinking, maybe you’re just easily impressed.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2018, 16:28:19 pm by Cobbler78 » Report Spam   Logged
Cobbler78
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« Reply #945 on: February 08, 2018, 16:28:54 pm »

This is more like it. This could go on all season



Don’t worry, it will.
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threeinabed
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« Reply #946 on: February 08, 2018, 16:59:21 pm »

Really? 3 of the most winnable games of the season, I don’t understand your thinking, maybe you’re just easily impressed.

i think its more to do with us getting 1 point from those 3 games, and you thinking we could have got 7 more - which is 8?!

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alton
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« Reply #947 on: February 08, 2018, 17:23:37 pm »

Ok then.
In terms of upward improving trends.
We have had 2 winning league runs of 3 victories, one against Gills(a) Blackpool(h) and oxford(a), and then one against Southend(h) Bradford(a) and Donkeys(h).
Chuck a draw with Rochdale(a) and Blackburn(a) on those runs respectively, and you get our two longest leage runs of four without deafeat.
Five of those games were played away and three were played at home
Four games(3wins) were against C78s current so called harder opponents, and four games(3wins) against his easier opponents.
If you can find a pattern in those figures alone, I applaud you.

Regarding injuries, suspensions, transfer windows etc that's surely for another thread because the OP has constantly expressed a desire to keep this as simple as possible, unless it suits his argument otherwise of course.
So since his first post suggested easier games were coming, the simplest analysis shows we currently average 1.08ppm from league matches played since then, compared to 1ppm from league matches up to then.


I don't think there is a patten to be unearthed. People forget there is a massive element of luck in an individual game which makes it all the more entertaining. After all how many other games can you win by just scoring one point?
My point is whether it's better to back a team higher in the league that's gone off the boil (think Chelsea) or a lower team that hit a run of recent form (Swansea springs to mind).
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #948 on: February 08, 2018, 18:07:50 pm »

i think its more to do with us getting 1 point from those 3 games, and you thinking we could have got 7 more - which is 8?!



Ah, yes. You are of course correct.
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cj
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« Reply #949 on: February 08, 2018, 18:37:47 pm »

I don't think there is a patten to be unearthed. People forget there is a massive element of luck in an individual game which makes it all the more entertaining. After all how many other games can you win by just scoring one point?
My point is whether it's better to back a team higher in the league that's gone off the boil (think Chelsea) or a lower team that hit a run of recent form (Swansea springs to mind).

I'd say there can be a massive element of luck in a game, but it's not mandatory. You raised the point some time back about certain analysts disregarding 1-0 wins I think, and I certainly see the validity in that.

Backing a higher team without form or lower with form?.. If you were a certain type then you'd say class was permanent and back that way regardless I suppose. I'm not a betting person of any degree, but I'd guess the bookies in your example will still shorten the odds of Chelsea over Swansea, after all other factors have been taken in consideration.
What happened to Leicester's matchday odds in their title winning season? Did the bookies follow the then recent evidence and make them favorites as the season progressed, or were they still classed as underdogs when playing the likes of Man Utd?
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Grove
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« Reply #950 on: February 08, 2018, 18:52:59 pm »

Oh dear. Shows just how deluded you are if you think I'm the one being referred to regarding the moon / cheese.

You need help, seriously you do...

He wouldn't notice you on the bus, too busy licking the window
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cobblertone
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« Reply #951 on: February 08, 2018, 19:25:32 pm »

Mystic Meg has it down to 49-60 points. I reckon he’ll get it down to within 3 points on match day 46.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #952 on: February 08, 2018, 20:05:51 pm »

He wouldn't notice you on the bus, too busy licking the window

Hey, I disagree with a lot of what Rambo says, he might be a little slow on the uptake but you shouldn’t stoop to that level of insulting him. Poor show.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #953 on: February 08, 2018, 20:26:58 pm »

Hey, I disagree with a lot of what Rambo says, he might be a little slow on the uptake but you shouldn’t stoop to that level of insulting him. Poor show.

Nice try but your jibes are as cheap as your theories. However, seeing as you seem to want to make this personal, I think the overwhelming majority who have participated in this thread know which of the two of us have put together the most convincing case.

 Not that I take it as any great accolade...
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Deepcut Cobbler
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« Reply #954 on: February 08, 2018, 21:09:45 pm »

IMO, Was, you are the one who has 'lost'. You've been dragged into being the greatest contributor of a thread that you have at various times disputed and I believe requested that it be closed a number of times.
You have ensured that it has continued by adding the fuel to the flame to maintain it's brightness sufficiently enough to keep the originator in the spotlight.
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Cobbler78
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« Reply #955 on: February 08, 2018, 21:11:20 pm »

Nice try but your jibes are as cheap as your theories. However, seeing as you seem to want to make this personal, I think the overwhelming majority who have participated in this thread know which of the two of us have put together the most convincing case.

 Not that I take it as any great accolade...

The majority understand, therefore have no reason to post. One or two are struggling and continue to post their theories as to why it’s wrong. That’s the long and the short of it.
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alton
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« Reply #956 on: February 08, 2018, 22:26:28 pm »

I'd say there can be a massive element of luck in a game, but it's not mandatory. You raised the point some time back about certain analysts disregarding 1-0 wins I think, and I certainly see the validity in that.

Backing a higher team without form or lower with form?.. If you were a certain type then you'd say class was permanent and back that way regardless I suppose. I'm not a betting person of any degree, but I'd guess the bookies in your example will still shorten the odds of Chelsea over Swansea, after all other factors have been taken in consideration.
What happened to Leicester's matchday odds in their title winning season? Did the bookies follow the then recent evidence and make them favorites as the season progressed, or were they still classed as underdogs when playing the likes of Man Utd?


Whilst the bookies put out initial odds it's the punters that decide them by the money they bet. It's a misconception that bookies have a view on whether a team will win, draw or lose - they simply gauge what the punters think in order to make a market where they are guaranteed a win whatever the result.
The comparison with Leicester is interesting but there's one much closer to home. When the Cobblers were on their winning run in the promotion year you could always get way better odds than the more fancied teams such as Oxford and the like. Punters assumed the bubble would burst much as they did with Leicester and there must have been quite a few Cobblers fans than won silly money over that time.
I think people can be lazy when looking at lower league teams and simply go for the names. For example Portsmouth were always skinny odds no matter how badly they were doing.
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everbrite
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« Reply #957 on: February 08, 2018, 23:00:00 pm »

........................................... and I believe requested that it be closed a number of times.


Is this true Rambo ? if so it does make one chuckle.

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Melbourne Cobbler
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« Reply #958 on: February 09, 2018, 01:52:11 am »

Extraordinarily whilst it appears some are keen not to be labelled the man who thinks the moon is made of cheese, they seemingly have no problem with potentially being labelled the manic obsessive waving pictures of Neil Armstrong about? My fascination with this thread continues, as does the journey on the number 78 bus.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #959 on: February 09, 2018, 09:02:39 am »

Is this true Rambo ? if so it does make one chuckle.



I've questioned the value of it countless times, mainly because the OP is too numb to address questions directed at him. I've not begged for it to be closed, certainly not a number of times.

I have however said several times that i won't post any more as it's pointless but like many others, it only takes another daft statement from the OP to start the cycle again.

I'm not seeing this as a win lose situation tbh. I've agreed with the simplistic logic of getting more points from lower teams, I've disagreed on several levels and with just cause with how that logic is extended to create the OP's projections.

I've not seen anyone agree with the OP's logic but I've seen plenty of agreement with the alternatives offered and instead he has substituted debate with insult. If that makes me a loser or the loser, I can live with it

So Deepcut, you're entitled to your opinion, reading back would suggest you're in a minority.

And Nevers, who threw you a biscuit? Your only contribution to the thread seems to have been pi$$ poor attempts at a wind up. You're better off back on threads where you can criticise people for not going to every game surely?
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