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Dean Austin

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Melbourne Cobbler
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« Reply #160 on: April 16, 2018, 15:55:17 pm »

Three FA Cups in last four years - 2017, 2015, 2014
Charity Shields Winners - 2017, 2015, 2014
PL Runners Up - 2016
League Cup Runners Up - 2018
Europa League Semi's (so far) - 2018

There's a few clubs who wouldn't mind that record in the last four years (Spurs, Liverpool, Man Utd) although I agree with your 'Slightly under Achieving' summary.

Klopps about to fall into the 3 year category. Under, over or bang on the money? Also wonder if Newcastle & Norwich regret not keeping Chris Hughton?
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« Reply #161 on: April 16, 2018, 15:59:12 pm »

I read it as 10 over achieving, 4 as expected, 1 under achieving.

This is true. But the ones slightly over achieving…theres dozens of those around the divisions that have had managers in place for just a short period of time.

For the argument to stick that sticking with the same guy for a number of years is beneficial, Id like to see a number of examples used to show this.

Crucially as well, and I re-enforce this point…most of these managers started off really well and gained momentum from a lower than natural starting point.

Its no confidence that every manager who has managed us in the 3rd tier during the last 30 years has been sacked! (Gorman aside who left for reasons we all know but most likely would have been fired). Thats because historically they 'have been up against it'.

In recent times, Page, JE and JFH have not had the usual disadvantage versus rival clubs that the likes of Broadhurst, Gray etc had. Page took on a fantastic team and momentum, JE had a very decent budget and JFH even more so. None of those 3 deserved being kept on and all 3 should have gone sooner than they did in my opinion!

At the end of the day, there isn't a single football club out of the 92 that has kept on a grossly under performing manager for any longer than 12 months. Apart from arguably the Blackburn owners when they wouldn't sack the guy who took them down (can't remember his name). Its football. You only stay in a job if your successful. Which is right. The 15 longest serving managers in the game have all done a decent job at times but those suggesting that its the answer to our problems (keeping someone on for 3 plus years) - it just isn't!
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« Reply #162 on: April 16, 2018, 16:13:51 pm »

This is true. But the ones slightly over achieving…theres dozens of those around the divisions that have had managers in place for just a short period of time.

For the argument to stick that sticking with the same guy for a number of years is beneficial, Id like to see a number of examples used to show this.

Crucially as well, and I re-enforce this point…most of these managers started off really well and gained momentum from a lower than natural starting point.

Its no confidence that every manager who has managed us in the 3rd tier during the last 30 years has been sacked! (Gorman aside who left for reasons we all know but most likely would have been fired). Thats because historically they 'have been up against it'.

In recent times, Page, JE and JFH have not had the usual disadvantage versus rival clubs that the likes of Broadhurst, Gray etc had. Page took on a fantastic team and momentum, JE had a very decent budget and JFH even more so. None of those 3 deserved being kept on and all 3 should have gone sooner than they did in my opinion!

At the end of the day, there isn't a single football club out of the 92 that has kept on a grossly under performing manager for any longer than 12 months. Apart from arguably the Blackburn owners when they wouldn't sack the guy who took them down (can't remember his name). Its football. You only stay in a job if your successful. Which is right. The 15 longest serving managers in the game have all done a decent job at times but those suggesting that its the answer to our problems (keeping someone on for 3 plus years) - it just isn't!
Sean Dyche was relegated as Burnley manager from the Premiership. Some supporters on 606 claimed the job had become too big and they should have got rid when he struggled in the Prem first time around? Bet they’re glad they didn’t now? If you look hard enough you can find exceptions for everything? Even more controversially Keith Berkenshaw took Tottenham down following his first season in charge, brought them back up and went on to be successful, so it does happen. Not sure it makes a convincing argument for doing likewise though?
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« Reply #163 on: April 16, 2018, 16:27:55 pm »

Sean Dyche was relegated as Burnley manager from the Premiership.

Dyche was given a bit of leeway by the board as they were investing most of the money they received from being in the premiership on facilities around the club rather than directly on players to keep them up that first season. Dyche was on board with this, so they couldn't really sack him based on their lack of investment - it seems to have worked out okay for them.
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« Reply #164 on: April 16, 2018, 17:01:47 pm »

Sean Dyche was relegated as Burnley manager from the Premiership. Some supporters on 606 claimed the job had become too big and they should have got rid when he struggled in the Prem first time around? Bet they’re glad they didn’t now? If you look hard enough you can find exceptions for everything? Even more controversially Keith Berkenshaw took Tottenham down following his first season in charge, brought them back up and went on to be successful, so it does happen. Not sure it makes a convincing argument for doing likewise though?

Dyche won Burnley the league in his first season and was promoted to the Prem…second season they went down…he then took them back up, helped no doubt by the parachute payments. Not knocking that, he's done a brilliant job…but he started off really well.

It didn't take the Leicester manager at the time long to win the premiership with his new club…first season, literally…either!

The way I see football and this whole managers debate is simple. Its all about timing. Its about balancing the financial outlay it will cost to replace a manager versus every other financial element that having an under performing team effects. Does sticking with a manager and instead giving him more money to spend v sacking said manager make you better or worse overall? Subjective most of the time.

Swansea went up the leagues with various different managers and have stayed in the prem again under various different managers. The latest had just been fired by Sheffield Wednesday! Watford continue to over perform and they sack a manager every few months.

Some will be a success elsewhere, some may have been a success prior to coming to us and then bomb out. I think its all about dynamics, whether they just hit it off in said environment so to speak. Once the rot has set in, any sports team will struggle…and its VERY RARE when a manager will turn things around. But like I say, that manager will almost certainly have built up some good will previously if he's allowed to get through a really bad spell.

Its ironic that those people citing Wilder as an example of how a manager will perform well if given a good amount of time (3 years) fail to remember Ian Atkins or Graham Carr, who both spent several seasons as our manager and both ended up where they started back in the 4th tier and playing absolutely awful football!



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« Reply #165 on: April 16, 2018, 19:06:06 pm »


Its ironic that those people citing Wilder as an example of how a manager will perform well if given a good amount of time (3 years) fail to remember Ian Atkins or Graham Carr, who both spent several seasons as our manager and both ended up where they started back in the 4th tier and playing absolutely awful football!


And that second part is key. No one knows what would have happened if Wilder or Calderwood had stayed with us in League One... we can only speculate. I completely agree that a lot must fall into place. Timing, opportunity and luck. Imagine if we sacked Wilder in his second season? He'd have been regarded as a failure and next move probably would have been back in non-league. A historical (but classic one), what if United sacked Fergie all them years ago?

I guess the best ones always 'create their own luck' as such.
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