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Where are the goals going to come from?

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Author Topic: Where are the goals going to come from?  (Read 977 times)
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WadeyCobbler
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« on: September 23, 2018, 11:19:40 am »

I've just been doing some quick statistical analysis of our squad and the number of goals they have scored for us as it feels like we don't have enough goals in us. Looking at the League form so far and goals scored that probably sounds obvious anyway. Of the main 19 outfield players to have played at some stage this season their total goals scored for us is 75 in 842 appearances (including as a playing sub). I admit that this stat may be skewed by say Buchs who has 152 appearances and has only once troubled an opposing goalkeeper. But breaking it down, player by player it isn't great reading.
Some haven't scored (hence the formula issue) but by predicting the number of games each player will play and based on their goal history for us, I have created my own Expected Goals figure for each player and come up with a total of just 42. That won't get us far.

Player   NTFC    NTFC          Games                Season            Predicted No. Games                     Expected Goals
                APPS         Goals        per goal                 equivalent             played this season
FACEY   21           1                   21.0                   2                   23                                                   1
BUCHANAN152           1                   152.0           0                   40                                                   0
ODOFFIN   5           0                   #DIV/0!           0                   23                                                   #DIV/0!
BARNETT   22           1                   22.0                   2                   23                                                   1
A.TAYLOR   62           7                   8.9                   5                   46                                                   5
HOSKINS   112           14                   8.0                   6                   40                                                   5
FOLEY   37           3                   12.3                   4                   40                                                   3
A.WILLIAMS8           0                   #DIV/0!           0                   20                                                   #DIV/0!
VAN VEEN   18           4                   4.5                   10                    40                                                   9
POWELL   38           2                   19.0                   2                   23                                                   1
MORIAS   5           1                   5.0                   9                   23                                                   5
BOWDITCH32           2                   16.0                   3                   15                                                   1
PIERRE   30           0                   #DIV/0!           0                   23                                                  #DIV/0!
S.MCWILLIAMS   30   0                   #DIV/0!           0                   30                                                  #DIV/0!
TURNBULL   17           0                   #DIV/0!           0                   6                                                  #DIV/0!
BRIDGE   11           0                   #DIV/0!           0                  23                                                  #DIV/0!
WATERS   29           1                   29.0                   2                  23                                                  1
O'TOOLE   169           32                   5.3                   9                  23                                                  4
CROOKS   44           6                   7.3                   6                  40                                                  5
           842           75                                      61                                                                     42

I know you can do anything with statistics to support a certain argument and this can be criticised, but I was bored on a wet dreary Sunday morning.
Stats courtesy of the offical NTFC programme.


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Coolcat
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2018, 11:22:58 am »

Need Alan Turing to make sense of that!  Wink
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2018, 12:42:02 pm »

Said this before the season even started, predicred Williams looked like a dud signing and he’s done nothing to disprove this, we already know the likes of Bowditch, Powell & Hoskins don’t score.
But it’s been even worse than I thought as DA has not got the best out JJOT and Crooks and with real potential set piece threats like Taylor and Pierre this is another area there is no reason we couldn’t be better at.
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2018, 12:46:39 pm »

In answer to the thread title: the opposition.
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2018, 13:05:44 pm »

Glaringly obvious to anyone that we've not got enough quality in the final third, both up top and out wide.

Morais aside, the failure to sign players of sufficient quality to rectify this is either down to the manager's unwillingness or inability to attract them or the board's unwillingness to provide appropriate funds.
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2018, 13:53:55 pm »

Glaringly obvious to anyone that we've not got enough quality in the final third, both up top and out wide.

Morais aside, the failure to sign players of sufficient quality to rectify this is either down to the manager's unwillingness or inability to attract them or the board's unwillingness to provide appropriate funds.

I would say it was difficult to judge Morais as being any better on the very limited game time that he has managed. The one goal he scored I could have farted in.
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Ron Obvious
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2018, 14:29:19 pm »

Keeping Barnett in the side will make us more likely to score from corners for a start. Good effort yesterday from him yesterday. Should Austin drop him for Mansfield? I do hope not.
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WadeyCobbler
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2018, 14:34:36 pm »

Need Alan Turing to make sense of that!  Wink

The format was more structured before I posted it (honest)!
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2018, 14:36:55 pm »

Keeping Barnett in the side will make us more likely to score from corners for a start. Good effort yesterday from him yesterday. Should Austin drop him for Mansfield? I do hope not.

Have we scored from a corner since Grimes left?
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2018, 14:39:30 pm »

Have we scored from a corner since Grimes left?

It feels like years since we scored from a corner. Sampson and Razor, come on down. Cresswell too.
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2018, 14:44:11 pm »

It feels like years since we scored from a corner. Sampson and Razor, come on down. Cresswell too.

Taylor seemed to score loads last year.
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2018, 15:03:26 pm »

Taylor seemed to score loads last year.

I remember him flicking one in from a rebound and wiki says he has scored 6 since he arrived. Hasn't looked like scoring this season, at least not in the opponents net.
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2018, 16:00:20 pm »

The format was more structured before I posted it (honest)!

Thanks for the info Wadey but after 20 mins I began to lose concentration. May I suggest you present the info on a  spread sheet and then copy/paste on here. Typing stats like these on a Forum Web site more often than not lose their shape so to speak. I lost another tenner on van Veen to score 3 yesterday Cry
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2018, 16:02:57 pm »

I remember him flicking one in from a rebound and wiki says he has scored 6 since he arrived. Hasn't looked like scoring this season, at least not in the opponents net.

We have poor set piece takers now, sadly.
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2018, 20:22:42 pm »

Thanks for the info Wadey but after 20 mins I began to lose concentration. May I suggest you present the info on a  spread sheet and then copy/paste on here. Typing stats like these on a Forum Web site more often than not lose their shape so to speak. I lost another tenner on van Veen to score 3 yesterday Cry

Ive stopped doing the Van Veen hat trick. I have no other tips just yet you'll be pleased to kNow  Tongue
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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2018, 12:45:37 pm »

Said this before the season even started, predicred Williams looked like a dud signing and he’s done nothing to disprove this, we already know the likes of Bowditch, Powell & Hoskins don’t score.
But it’s been even worse than I thought as DA has not got the best out JJOT and Crooks and with real potential set piece threats like Taylor and Pierre this is another area there is no reason we couldn’t be better at.

Williams has played less than 400 minutes of league football so far this season, less than 4 and a half games in total. Seems a bit early to be writing him off as 'a dud' signing. Many had written off Foley (not by me I hasten to add), who has been outstanding this season. Same with Barnett, who was excellent on Saturday. I'm confident Williams is more than good enough. It's up to Austin to decide on a system where he can get a regular run of games and find his form.

Can't disagree about Hoskins, he has played every minute of this season in the league, scored no goals and provided what, 2 assists? Considering how much he sees of the ball it's surely time for others to be given a run in the side instead?
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