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Fan Ownership

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DrillingCobbler
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« Reply #60 on: January 26, 2019, 07:34:38 am »

I think that there are some very interesting posts on here and I would agree with The Vintage Cobbler that people need to approach this with an open mind.

The fundamental issue has to be money - if you read the recent Judges report you will see that the club has been operated at a significant loss for almost all of the last 15 years. In common with most football clubs, it has relied upon "external shareholder support". The Cardozas put in £6m to keep the club afloat over this period.

I haven't looked at the accounts since 2015 in detail but I would think that the present owners have had to support the club on similar lines.

If we take the average loss, £500,000 or so, this is an enormous amount of money to turn around from greater commercial income streams. What playing squad would you have left if you had to take this off the wages bill?

But more importantly, if the club was supporter owned, it would have to set prudent and risk averse budgets. Crudely, I think this would equate to a wages bill about 50% of what it is now before any extra income is factored in.

Money alone does not make a successful club - so it would be wrong for me to argue that because a stand alone supporter owned club would have a much lower playing budget we would be doomed. BUT, supporters would have to accept that the objectives of the club would be different from those currently. Now, apart from a few masochists, we all want promotion and success.

For example, a way to operate on lower budgets could be to prioritise youth and local players. It would truly be a community club..a miniature Athletic Bilbao, where nearly all the players are Basques..

To achieve any type of supporter owned/led club will need a very clearly defined strategic approach where the objectives are defined, supported widely and are realistic.






This echo's my outlook on it...unless the model includes someone with considerable funds to plug the gaps and help kick us on.

Im not going to profess to knowing anywhere near the exact numbers involved, but Id guess that we could run on a playing budget of around 1.2 million 'relatively risk free'. With that amount, you cant afford any hangers on, any expensive permanently injured players, or any 'Kasims'. It all has to click; like it did for Accrington last season. Like you've intimated, you'd also need 3 or 4 gems from the academy playing well for the first team on low wages to help boost up the quality that you cant buy in for peanuts.

From my understanding, theres a handful of clubs at this level that operate with wage budgets under a million quid a season. So I've no doubt that financially we could hold our own, BUT it wouldn't enable us to make any marquee signings.

That said; if the plan involved (gonna sound like Beds here) building the club up and infrastructure up over say a 5 year period to boost the overall income etc, if that meant long term we'd have a much better football club than we do now...surely thats worth looking into in some depth!

Lets face it. The current board have wasted at least 2 million quid in wages over the last 2 seasons that have got us no where, that money could have been spent elsewhere and we'd be no worse off in terms of league position! Hindsight of course.

It also worth noting that in the latter years, Big Dave ran the club pretty much on an even keel financially, and that was paying for 'personal stuff' as well so that proves it could be done. Whether that means additional stuff, like sorting out the East Stand, could be achieved is open to debate at this point.

What I believe the vast majority of us want though is a proper voice in the board room. Moving forward. A proper say, some decent influence into decisions made by the football club. So we have common ground amongst us. I do accept theres a large minority of fans who want to remain 90% plus privately owned at this point,  but that has got us absolutely no where and nearly made us go bust on three occasions during the last 30 years or so. And a decaying stadium/infrastructure that has had pretty much zero TLC during that entire time. Its hard to reason with the strongest of opposition to the idea, a bit like a Tory councillor knocking on doors in Moss Side Manchester looking to drum up votes! We will still try though!  Grin
« Last Edit: January 26, 2019, 07:36:34 am by DrillingCobbler » Report Spam   Logged
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« Reply #61 on: January 26, 2019, 08:11:18 am »

Just briefly about the finances, nobody outside the club knows the income and expenditure position. For the last published accounts (until June 2017) the loss is reported as £240,000. It's certainly true that under DC the club stemmed it's losses.

But I suppose my real point, lost in my waffle, is that a supporter owned club can never afford to get it wrong financially because they would have no where to go to raise the funds.

Now this isn't impossible to deal with in terms of budgeting: basically on day 1 the club would need 12 months cash flow in the bank and a budget set to make a small surplus which would be continually updated to take account of changes in forecast income and expenditure.

I think it can be done, I just think the capital required is higher than most people anticipate the budget is probably going to have to be smaller.

To ensure long-term survival, these basic "fiscal rules" can be written into the club's articles and memorandum of association.
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« Reply #62 on: January 26, 2019, 09:01:02 am »

This echo's my outlook on it...unless the model includes someone with considerable funds to plug the gaps and help kick us on.

Im not going to profess to knowing anywhere near the exact numbers involved, but Id guess that we could run on a playing budget of around 1.2 million 'relatively risk free'. With that amount, you cant afford any hangers on, any expensive permanently injured players, or any 'Kasims'. It all has to click; like it did for Accrington last season. Like you've intimated, you'd also need 3 or 4 gems from the academy playing well for the first team on low wages to help boost up the quality that you cant buy in for peanuts.

From my understanding, theres a handful of clubs at this level that operate with wage budgets under a million quid a season. So I've no doubt that financially we could hold our own, BUT it wouldn't enable us to make any marquee signings.

That said; if the plan involved (gonna sound like Beds here) building the club up and infrastructure up over say a 5 year period to boost the overall income etc, if that meant long term we'd have a much better football club than we do now...surely thats worth looking into in some depth!

Lets face it. The current board have wasted at least 2 million quid in wages over the last 2 seasons that have got us no where, that money could have been spent elsewhere and we'd be no worse off in terms of league position! Hindsight of course.

It also worth noting that in the latter years, Big Dave ran the club pretty much on an even keel financially, and that was paying for 'personal stuff' as well so that proves it could be done. Whether that means additional stuff, like sorting out the East Stand, could be achieved is open to debate at this point.

What I believe the vast majority of us want though is a proper voice in the board room. Moving forward. A proper say, some decent influence into decisions made by the football club. So we have common ground amongst us. I do accept theres a large minority of fans who want to remain 90% plus privately owned at this point,  but that has got us absolutely no where and nearly made us go bust on three occasions during the last 30 years or so. And a decaying stadium/infrastructure that has had pretty much zero TLC during that entire time. Its hard to reason with the strongest of opposition to the idea, a bit like a Tory councillor knocking on doors in Moss Side Manchester looking to drum up votes! We will still try though!  Grin
My blind estimate was that you would need to raise between 14 and 17 million for that very reason. Thatvestimation didnít go down as well as Iíd hoped if I am honest. I must admit though my evaluation was pretty much in line with yours. My guess is that amount would support the club for 5 - 7 years, fund a reasonable level of redevelopment and support the manager in the transfer market. After that period it would need to be self sustaining and that would immediately put it in a significant minority outside the top 2 divisions. Somewhat of a challenge to say the least. At this point in time I honestly believe we would get nowhere near that figure, but for me establishing what funding we could raise would be the very first stage in the process. Once that figure has been ascertained then the business plan and structure would follow to suit. I.e cut your cloth accordingly. However, no romance with no finance as the song goes. At least thatís my view.
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BedsCobb
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« Reply #63 on: January 26, 2019, 11:27:07 am »

Cardoza didn't put £6m into the club, even he knew that kind of  investment would be put to better use by improving the decrepit infrastructure to make the club more self sufficient.
Most of the figures bandied about are based on the very low current level of turnover of a poorly performing L2 side or one struggling in L1 unable to maximise its earning potential.
Both Thomas and Cardoza were not interested in the long term financial  health of a club they wouldn't be part of.
But saying that near on 20 years later we still find ourselves stuck in the starting blocks watching all others progress to some degree.
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« Reply #64 on: January 26, 2019, 14:29:27 pm »

Cardoza didn't put £6m into the club, even he knew that kind of  investment would be put to better use by improving the decrepit infrastructure to make the club more self sufficient.
Most of the figures bandied about are based on the very low current level of turnover of a poorly performing L2 side or one struggling in L1 unable to maximise its earning potential.
Both Thomas and Cardoza were not interested in the long term financial  health of a club they wouldn't be part of.
But saying that near on 20 years later we still find ourselves stuck in the starting blocks watching all others progress to some degree.
Beds, 2 things, it is my understanding that according to the summing up of HHJ Simon Barker QC 6 million is exactly what the Cardozas put into the club? In fact that was at the heart of the case as far as I could tell. Apparently thatís roughly what they lost over their tenure? Secondly itís all irrelevant because I have a feeling your predictions about what is feasible are about to come under the scrutiny of some individuals qualified to make an informed judgment on the subject. Perhaps everything you have claimed and stated as achievable will come to fruition and I will be eating a large slice of humble pie? Anyway our new bloke has just scored so I canít stop to chat.
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meccanostand
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« Reply #65 on: January 27, 2019, 09:45:57 am »

NTFC Trust community ownership mission statement and launch of Project Proud To Be here. Public meeting being organised. You can download the full statement via the link.

https://nenequirer.com/2019/01/24/cobblers-supporters-trust-launches-project-proud-to-be/
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BackOfTheNet
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« Reply #66 on: January 27, 2019, 11:01:21 am »



Viva la Cobblers!
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everbrite
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« Reply #67 on: January 27, 2019, 11:25:36 am »



Viva la Cobblers!

Love It!
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meccanostand
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« Reply #68 on: January 28, 2019, 07:11:55 am »

Notts County put up for sale yesterday. Going to need a shedload of Arab Sheikh's to turn up to take all the EFL clubs actively up for sale to the promised land of the Premier League.
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southofthecounty
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« Reply #69 on: January 28, 2019, 08:42:33 am »

Notts County put up for sale yesterday. Going to need a shedload of Arab Sheikh's to turn up to take all the EFL clubs actively up for sale to the promised land of the Premier League.
I'm surprised no cash rich ex Prem pros have ever purchased a league club as a vanity project.
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meccanostand
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« Reply #70 on: January 28, 2019, 09:32:09 am »

I'm surprised no cash rich ex Prem pros have ever purchased a league club as a vanity project.

Salford the nearest example.
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Terryfenwickatemyhamster
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« Reply #71 on: January 28, 2019, 16:57:26 pm »

This echo's my outlook on it...unless the model includes someone with considerable funds to plug the gaps and help kick us on.



So how is it fan owned then Shane?
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guest3230
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« Reply #72 on: January 28, 2019, 17:02:39 pm »

So how is it fan owned then Shane?

Its not!
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Terryfenwickatemyhamster
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« Reply #73 on: January 28, 2019, 17:04:32 pm »

Its not!

I know...  Grin

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guest3230
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« Reply #74 on: January 28, 2019, 17:32:47 pm »

I know...  Grin



I know you know  Grin
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ntfclad
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« Reply #75 on: January 28, 2019, 17:33:51 pm »

NTFC Trust community ownership mission statement and launch of Project Proud To Be here. Public meeting being organised. You can download the full statement via the link.

https://nenequirer.com/2019/01/24/cobblers-supporters-trust-launches-project-proud-to-be/

Good statement but means **** all in practise. Go and start the Phoenix club you were so desperate for 3 years ago.
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meccanostand
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« Reply #76 on: January 28, 2019, 17:58:41 pm »

Good statement but means **** all in practise. Go and start the Phoenix club you were so desperate for 3 years ago.

Haha nice try. There were loads of ideas knocking about at the time at the trust crisis meeting and i wasnt even the one pushing a phoenix club as random will tell you. Would a pheonix club have been a realistic option if the club was to be lumbered with a £10.25 ++ million debt plus an unfinished stand. Yeah probably and that was the crisis we were dealing with at the time.

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Vintage Cobbler
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« Reply #77 on: January 28, 2019, 18:34:05 pm »

Its not!

Perhaps from what is being said it might be described potentially as a Joint Venture Partnership?  But first let the Trust work on the business model and the possibilities and then you may comment sensibly.  Before that happens I think some of you are jumping the gun.

PS Doing well aren't we on and off the pitch under the present ownership structure?
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« Reply #78 on: January 28, 2019, 19:14:09 pm »

Perhaps from what is being said it might be described potentially as a Joint Venture Partnership?  But first let the Trust work on the business model and the possibilities and then you may comment sensibly.  Before that happens I think some of you are jumping the gun.

PS Doing well aren't we on and off the pitch under the present ownership structure?

On what basis should we trust the trust to do a good job? Playing devils advocate a bit here btw...

Doing fine off the pitch, aren't we?
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Vintage Cobbler
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« Reply #79 on: January 28, 2019, 19:27:19 pm »

As I keep commenting, don't get ahead of yourself. See what the Trust comes up with and then, by all means, comment. 
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