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Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations

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Author Topic: Substitutions, Squad Depth and Late Capitulations  (Read 1928 times)
Boot and shoe
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« Reply #20 on: September 30, 2019, 13:14:35 pm »

I think in league 2 it pays to keep things fairly simple, the players don't cope with system changes very well. Therefore it makes sense to make mainly like for like changes. Sometimes more pace may be needed , sometimes better passing and technique may be required. I understand Curly's theory of putting a forward on to get us playing in Morecambe's half but this only succeeded in getting us playing hoofball. One way to see out a game is to keep the ball, unfortunately we are very short of technical players who can keep us in possession. Pollock has shown us he can pass, perhaps he needs more time on the pitch with Chris Lines to learn how to manage a game?
I agree with everything you are saying here , but if we canít keep the ball against teams like Morecambe and Stevenage there is something very wrong . Curle instructs the players to get rid of the ball early .
Who can forget forget his quote after the Stevenage game complaining that too many players came short looking for the ball rather than chasing after it being lumped down the pitch . Thatís why I think itís hard to criticise the players .
At the end of the day ,we are in mid table mediocrity which is about where we deserve to be .
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« Reply #21 on: September 30, 2019, 13:24:27 pm »

I agree with everything you are saying here , but if we canít keep the ball against teams like Morecambe and Stevenage there is something very wrong . Curle instructs the players to get rid of the ball early .
Who can forget forget his quote after the Stevenage game complaining that too many players came short looking for the ball rather than chasing after it being lumped down the pitch . Thatís why I think itís hard to criticise the players .
At the end of the day ,we are in mid table mediocrity which is about where we deserve to be .

i don't think that was his quote - although he did reference players coming short - i think it was more to do with players taking more touches than they needed to, instead of moving the ball quicker.
Crooks used to do it a lot for us - come and stand on the centre backs toes and take the ball from them and pass it to a full back - pointless!! he should have been doing his work further up the pitch where he could hurt the opposition!!
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« Reply #22 on: September 30, 2019, 17:48:42 pm »

Is some of this just that we analyse all the things that go wrong when the end result is negative and yet don't as much if we win.  The times he's made subs/changes this season and we held on and won...worked???

To me we conceded in both games at a horrible time around the 20 mins to go mark.  At 2-0 especially away from home you slow the game down make subs and see it out.

If we had defended properly in both games and not conceded with 20 to go we come out comfortable winners irrespective of changes.  Both Crawley and Morecambe got a massive lift at an opportune time for them, rode that wave and equalised with some good fortune added in.

Still learning and missing a little bit of experience at the right times.
 
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« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2019, 19:50:51 pm »

Is some of this just that we analyse all the things that go wrong when the end result is negative and yet don't as much if we win.  The times he's made subs/changes this season and we held on and won...worked???

To me we conceded in both games at a horrible time around the 20 mins to go mark.  At 2-0 especially away from home you slow the game down make subs and see it out.

If we had defended properly in both games and not conceded with 20 to go we come out comfortable winners irrespective of changes.  Both Crawley and Morecambe got a massive lift at an opportune time for them, rode that wave and equalised with some good fortune added in.

Still learning and missing a little bit of experience at the right times.
 

Walsall.....lost 0-1.....went behind in the 15th minute......substitutions changed nothing........0 points
Port Vale.....drew 1-1....1-1 at half time.....three subs in 2nd half changed nothing.......0 points
Macclesfield...lost 1-2....losing 0-1 and made three subs.....changed nothing apart from the scoreline.....0 points
Swindon...won 1-0....were winning 1-0 before any subs were made.....score stayed the same.....0 points
Colchester....lost 0-1...were losing 0-1 when he made the second and third subs....changed nothing....0 points
Plymouth..won 3-1...3-1 up at half time....three subs made in the second half....score stayed the same....0 points
Bradford...lost 1-2....were winning before he made any subs.......conceded twice after all three subs had been made.....-3 points
Newport...won 2-0...were winnnig 1-0 before any subs...made 1 and went 2-0 up, made two more....stayed 2-0....0 points
Stevenage..won 1-0...0-0 at half time.....brought Smith on who went and scored the winner.....stayed 1-0.....+2 points
Crawley...drew 2-2....were winning 2-0 before he brought on any subs, brought one on and went to 2-1...brought two more on and conceded in the 90th....-2 points
Morecambe...drew 2-2..were winning 2-0 before he brought on any subs, brought two subs on before conceding the first, another sub before conceded in the 90th....-2 points


A crude analysis I know, but you could argue that only in the Stevenage game has a substitution proved to be effective, whereas they cost points in three games and had no effect in the other 7 league games.
Of our wins, apart from Stevenage I don't believe the subs made any difference to the outcomes of Plymouth and Newport as we never looked in any danger, the other game where we won at Swindon he actually took off a defender and attacker (Wharton and Williams) and put two forwards on (Oliver and Waters) so far from shutting up shop in that one.
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« Reply #24 on: September 30, 2019, 20:30:18 pm »

Very crude analysis  Smiley

I can see the point you are trying to make but it's different to the one I was making.  I was suggesting that in games where we were leading or maybe even drawing, made subs and saw out the game for a positive result you will find little comment about the subs made.  You would probably also see little mention of being negative or sitting back.

When we have dropped points for obvious reasons it gets analysed to the extreme.  A scoreline surely doesn't HAVE to improve to suggest substitutions were effective?  Obviously effective in all cases is subjective as it can't be proved either way what would have happened if they hadn't been made.
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« Reply #25 on: September 30, 2019, 21:29:30 pm »

Very crude analysis  Smiley

I can see the point you are trying to make but it's different to the one I was making.  I was suggesting that in games where we were leading or maybe even drawing, made subs and saw out the game for a positive result you will find little comment about the subs made.  You would probably also see little mention of being negative or sitting back.

When we have dropped points for obvious reasons it gets analysed to the extreme.  A scoreline surely doesn't HAVE to improve to suggest substitutions were effective?  Obviously effective in all cases is subjective as it can't be proved either way what would have happened if they hadn't been made.

Similarly we canít prove that the substitutions did actually cost us points, as this totally ignoring anything the opposition may have done with regards to subs or tactics. The only facts are the results, and I guess it probably seems worse than usual as we have given up three leads in the last 20 minutes in the past few games to end up with two points rather than nine.
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« Reply #26 on: September 30, 2019, 22:29:33 pm »

The big game changer on Saturday was when they brought Adam Buxton on. Primarily a full back but all of a sudden everything went through him on their left, he upped their tempo playing simple football.
Fortunate with his deflected goal but the game changed when he came on in the 53rd, which was recognised by KC who put on H-J to counter him.
Buxton was given MotM by Morecambe.
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« Reply #27 on: September 30, 2019, 22:33:28 pm »

A crude analysis maybe, but would be considerably more relevant if compared to other managers? Particularly those who manage teams around us in the table so are presumably at this point of similar ability? (Yes GPC this is my underhand way of asking if you have the time to do a comparison. I hadnít the balls to ask you outright. Please feel free to tell me to fck off obviously)
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« Reply #28 on: September 30, 2019, 23:25:46 pm »

A crude analysis maybe, but would be considerably more relevant if compared to other managers? Particularly those who manage teams around us in the table so are presumably at this point of similar ability? (Yes GPC this is my underhand way of asking if you have the time to do a comparison. I hadnít the balls to ask you outright. Please feel free to tell me to fck off obviously)

Lol, Iíll see what I can do....tomorrow!!
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« Reply #29 on: October 01, 2019, 01:08:31 am »

Lol, Iíll see what I can do....tomorrow!!
🎶 And then a hero comes along, with the strength to carry on 🎶
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« Reply #30 on: October 01, 2019, 06:05:19 am »

The big game changer on Saturday was when they brought Adam Buxton on. Primarily a full back but all of a sudden everything went through him on their left, he upped their tempo playing simple football.
Fortunate with his deflected goal but the game changed when he came on in the 53rd, which was recognised by KC who put on H-J to counter him.
Buxton was given MotM by Morecambe.

Maybe the query needs to be about the effectiveness of the substitutions the opposition make, and how our onfield XI counter their threat?

It's obvious that KC gives them detailed plans before the game on how the opposition will likely set up etc, but I just wonder if that then extends to "in-game" tactical knowledge being passed on.

Alternatively, as mental fatigue sets in, are the players able to grasp the change made by the opposition, and should be able to adapt their defensive tactics to suit?

I personally think bringing on Warburton for McWilliams in both recent matches has exposed his lack of FL experience.
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« Reply #31 on: October 01, 2019, 12:04:37 pm »

There are some concerning statistics in the chron
1. We have the 4th lowest possession % in the division
2. We are 2nd lowest on passes completed
3. No team in the division have had more shots against them
4. Along with Oldham we have the most yellow cards. The number of stupid and avoidable yellow cards has       been a concern for some time.
   It would be unfair not to mention the statistics at the higher level
5. Only 2 sides have scored more goals from set pieces
6. Charlie Goode has more blocks and clearances than any other player in the division
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« Reply #32 on: October 01, 2019, 12:39:58 pm »

There are some concerning statistics in the chron
1. We have the 4th lowest possession % in the division
2. We are 2nd lowest on passes completed
3. No team in the division have had more shots against them
4. Along with Oldham we have the most yellow cards. The number of stupid and avoidable yellow cards has       been a concern for some time.
   It would be unfair not to mention the statistics at the higher level
5. Only 2 sides have scored more goals from set pieces
6. Charlie Goode has more blocks and clearances than any other player in the division
Not sure 6 should be taken as a positive?
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« Reply #33 on: October 01, 2019, 12:44:36 pm »

There are some concerning statistics in the chron
1. We have the 4th lowest possession % in the division
2. We are 2nd lowest on passes completed
3. No team in the division have had more shots against them
4. Along with Oldham we have the most yellow cards. The number of stupid and avoidable yellow cards has       been a concern for some time.
   It would be unfair not to mention the statistics at the higher level
5. Only 2 sides have scored more goals from set pieces
6. Charlie Goode has more blocks and clearances than any other player in the division
I think point 6 is the result of point 3.
These Statistical facts point out Curles dreadful tactics and the fact we let the opposition have the ball for long periods where we chase after it, become tired, commit fouls and inevitably concede.
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« Reply #34 on: October 01, 2019, 13:05:40 pm »

87% of statistics are bulls***e.
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« Reply #35 on: October 01, 2019, 13:08:33 pm »

91% of observations regarding statistics are distorted.
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« Reply #36 on: October 01, 2019, 13:11:01 pm »

There are some concerning statistics in the chron
1. We have the 4th lowest possession % in the division
2. We are 2nd lowest on passes completed
3. No team in the division have had more shots against them
4. Along with Oldham we have the most yellow cards. The number of stupid and avoidable yellow cards has       been a concern for some time.
   It would be unfair not to mention the statistics at the higher level
5. Only 2 sides have scored more goals from set pieces
6. Charlie Goode has more blocks and clearances than any other player in the division
Perhaps point 3 is contributing towards the apparent interest in Dai?
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« Reply #37 on: October 01, 2019, 13:12:54 pm »

As I have said on another thread , this just about underlines the type of side we are :
Direct , uncomplicated and strong armed .
Not sure itís the best for youth development and not likely to encourage attendances to increase beyond where they are currently.
But then we all know that already and to balance it off , performances at home have recently been more entertaining .
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« Reply #38 on: October 01, 2019, 13:23:56 pm »

I've got no problems with gaining yellow cards if it helps the greater cause. Think Lincoln under the Cowley brothers.

I've got no issue with having less possession. Leicester won the prem with an average of 40% - ours is still higher than that. Its what you do without the ball as much as what you do with the ball that counts, its a pointless stat in my opinion.

Likewise, shots on target, off target etc. A team can have a policy of taking pot shots from all over the place, their stats will look good, conversions less so. Etc.

The stat I saw that is relevant was the one where the chron says we've been in the lead during matches, considerably more than any other team in the division. Swindon were 2nd in that table, and literally miles behind.

The issue we have is clearly towards the end of matches.

Forget sacking Curle to rectify it. What we need is a new manager to take over after 70 minutes. His title could be 'Director of Substitutions and Game Management'. Curle can bugger off and sit in the stand at that point each game.
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« Reply #39 on: October 01, 2019, 13:35:20 pm »

There are some concerning statistics in the chron
1. We have the 4th lowest possession % in the division
2. We are 2nd lowest on passes completed
3. No team in the division have had more shots against them
4. Along with Oldham we have the most yellow cards. The number of stupid and avoidable yellow cards has       been a concern for some time.
   It would be unfair not to mention the statistics at the higher level
5. Only 2 sides have scored more goals from set pieces
6. Charlie Goode has more blocks and clearances than any other player in the division

Re point 3, just debating at what point Evers comes on with a triumphant fanfare to counter the argument that was posed about last season stats re shots versus conversion against Cornell?

 Grin
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