Oh....Sky said this game was taking place last week!!
Anyway....a defeat tonight and we are definitely out, a defeat on penalties after a draw will mean we are almost definitely out, a win on penalties after a draw would mean we had half a chance of going through, and a win in normal time does indeed give us a decent chance, as it would mean Cambridge had to beat both Posh and Arsenal (or beat Posh comfortably and beat Arsenal on penalties, or beat Arsenal comfortably and beat Posh on penalties) to stop us progressing.