Jon Brady

[Gustavo Palcrice]

Changing a manager during a crisis in the season certainly provides a 'bounce' in results but no-one will ever know what would have happened had the original manager remained. He may well have enjoyed a 'run'. It is probably therefore a matter of timing to ensure the bounce has a significant effect. For instance as the side flirts with relegation. In the lower leagues as a rule you are not going to attract the best managers so you could gamble on an up and coming but there are obvious risks.

Generally clubs get rid of managers when either the players or fans or both take against the incumbent, this usually coincides with results. Most managers are similar in their ability (disregarding Fenwick and Guardiola in an attempt to be mean!). They are all trained on the same syllabus (UEFA badges) which is why the same 'pool' swirls around the clubs so it is more experience that differentiates them. When a lower league side seeks a new manager they aren't in a position to just pay for the best so maybe they should try and establish who wants it most or has a connection. This is probably why Brady is popular but sooner or later entropy will set in as it does with everything else in the life cycle.

[Peter Frost]

The keeper cost us Tuesday night, and nearly always when a team get relegated they have a poor keeper, look at the last time it happened to us, Mitch was between then sticks, JB if anything is loyal to his players, overly so in the case of the Imp.
JB has always been weak in terms of substitutes especially the timing of them.
What does everyone think about bringing in a director of football to help JB?

Correct - If you convert Mitchell's mistakes to points that's what got us relegated - there really isn't any defence for his performances which displayed more errors than any average goalkeeper in a season.

I like Burge and he had a great first season with us but since his injury he has definitely been a poorer keeper - I think it's a bit strong to say he lost it for us Tuesday night - I would put much more blame on Fosu for the first and overall the first half performance as a team lost us the game.  

[Deepcut Cobbler]

Correct - If you convert Mitchell's mistakes to point that's what got us relegated - there really isn't any defence for his performances which displayed more errors than any average goalkeeper in a season.

I like Burge and he had a great first season with us but since his injury he has definitely been a poorer keeper - I think it's a bit strong to say he lost it for us Tuesday night - I would put much more blame on Fosu for the first and overall the first half performance as a team lost us the game.  

And Jon Guthrie at fault for the second.
Jon Guthrie did not have his best game for us on Tuesday, with a couple of other chances given because of him.
However, in light of the 'speed dating' style of his centre back partnerships, and that he has been the one positive constant amongst a squad of mainly disappointments, he has been due an off day and can be excused.

[DavCobb]

Ever's comment made me spit me tea out.  a tad sensationalist, although I probably would stick with Brady if we get relegated....out of L1 and not the EFL! I guess that though depends how bad things got. We still seem to be able to put some points together and no sign of a rot setting in, although we could do with a win or two.

As for Burge. A bit harsh regarding Tuesday. Sure he got a big hand on it and probably disappointed he didn't keep it out. Not sure so much on the second, unless he was on his line it was a good finish. Not forgetting the recent spell of cleans sheets. He certainly should never be mentioned in the same sentence as calamity Mitchell!

[GrangeParkCobbler]

Reading your summary whilst it is your opinion, it does for me read like an obituary in anticipation for relegation. I would suggest that your penultimate paragraph barely disguises you disappointment at our current league standing. Most on here appeared to accept it would be a hard season! Not so long we seemed to hit a decent back three but at least two of those players are now injured and if Magloire is included thats three out! Injuries have effected us, as it has to Man City form. If only you could consider an opinion which proposes a way out of the current situation. Changing the manager has never really worked for us; it really depends on the quality of the incoming Manager; as Managers like Bowen and Wilder* are rare to come by! Whether we like it or not Jon Brady is the only recent Manager who can possibly follow in their* footstops!

We should stick with him, as at the moment he is our only hope of survival as a EFL Club!

Your response is your opinion too. Your last paragraph is though, as other have said, a bit OTT!

I like to consider myself as more of a realist.... we are 18th in the table, three points above the drop zone having played a game more than most around us. We have won four of seventeen games this season in the league. We have won one of our last eight games in all competitions, we have won away from home in the league three times this calendar year.

Most accepted it would be a hard season because of all the hype about Birmingham spending this, Wrexham and their owners doing that.....happy with a bottom six/eight finish. Why cant we aspire to be more like Lincoln, Mansfield or Wycombe...all in the top 10 now. Even Reading with their issues/embargo now sitting 7th.
That is really my disappointment...the acceptance that this (18th) is us!

[Observing]

I think Evers has an agenda.

[Risdene]

You say we should compare ourselves with Lincoln, Mansfield and Wycombe, which I would normally agree with, BUT money talks so the comparison is tainted by the budget of the 3 clubs which I suggest is nearly double what JB has to work with!

I still believe if we ever get a nearly full first team to choose from we are a mid league side, which would be an achievement.

My belief is JB is a very good manager but he needs the tools to work with.

[Melbourne Cobbler]

Your response is your opinion too. Your last paragraph is though, as other have said, a bit OTT!

I like to consider myself as more of a realist.... we are 18th in the table, three points above the drop zone having played a game more than most around us. We have won four of seventeen games this season in the league. We have won one of our last eight games in all competitions, we have won away from home in the league three times this calendar year.

Most accepted it would be a hard season because of all the hype about Birmingham spending this, Wrexham and their owners doing that.....happy with a bottom six/eight finish. Why cant we aspire to be more like Lincoln, Mansfield or Wycombe...all in the top 10 now. Even Reading with their issues/embargo now sitting 7th.
That is really my disappointment...the acceptance that this (18th) is us!

The bottom line is though Simon that’s about where a budget is, and everyone knows finance is the biggest differentiator. It’s not like you’d have to add a little bit extra either. To make a discernible difference it would take millions, even then it’s not a guarantee. People also seem to be forgetting about the impending legislation. If it goes through as intended it’s going to stir things up a bit.

[GrangeParkCobbler]

The bottom line is though Simon that’s about where a budget is, and everyone knows finance is the biggest differentiator. It’s not like you’d have to add a little bit extra either. To make a discernible difference it would take millions, even then it’s not a guarantee. People also seem to be forgetting about the impending legislation. If it goes through as intended it’s going to stir things up a bit.

Well then is it all about the budget and questions need to be asked why our budget is less than others of comparable size (I did pick those three clubs with that in mind!)?

Yes Dale, the legislation is just around the corner however there is already a cap on spending based on percentage of income... fair play or whatever it is called this year!

Why do Wycombe have "double our budget" on lower gates? It is supposedly not possible for any owner just to pump loads of money in with no comeback.

[Melbourne Cobbler]

Well then is it all about the budget and questions need to be asked why our budget is less than others of comparable size (I did pick those three clubs with that in mind!)?

Yes Dale, the legislation is just around the corner however there is already a cap on spending based on percentage of income... fair play or whatever it is called this year!

Why do Wycombe have "double our budget" on lower gates? It is supposedly not possible for any owner just to pump loads of money in with no comeback.

it’s not complicated mate.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/crgy1k89zgko

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/51587783

[GrangeParkCobbler]

Yeah I get that, but rules already in place should mean that despite having all that money they can’t just up a clubs wage budget to £10m if their clubs income is only £5m!

[Tabasco Kid]

I think Evers has an agenda.

Evers has a problem. He cannot cope with criticism towards him, or anything that he associates himself with. Especially towards those who were not present at the time of the event.
Personally, I branch out in the opposite direction, and couldnt give a toss what anybody thinks about me. 

[Melbourne Cobbler]

Yeah I get that, but rules already in place should mean that despite having all that money they can’t just up a clubs wage budget to £10m if their clubs income is only £5m!

I don’t think the current rules are strong enough. If you look at some of the debt they are clearly spending way beyond income. Peterborough were at over 20 million last time I looked, with the players they’ve sold that’s incredible. I know I trot it out most years but this is straight out of this years Deloitte report. When you look at the comparatives it can’t go on, average losses have more than doubled in 2 seasons, that’s insane. The trading conditions have changed immeasurably since the current owners took over the club. Really, who would have foreseen average losses of 5 million a season in L1 back then, and this season Birmingham will take it off the scale. Like I said, the current rules are completely ineffective.

“League One clubs’ pre-tax losses worsened to an average of £5.0m (2021/22: £2.2m), with Derby County responsible for £30m (25%) of the total (c.£121m). League Two clubs’ pre-tax losses averaged £1.5m per club.”

https://www.deloitte.com/uk/en/services/financial-advisory/research/annual-review-of-football-finance-football-league-clubs.html

[CobblerForever]

The only explanation for this overspend I can think of is that the owners of these clubs believe they are sitting on a huge potential windfall which boils down to television revenue in total or player sales. I don't believe there is that potential from revenue generated by sales in the UK and can only think that they are bargaining on huge markets opening up in places like USA, China, the Far East generally, India and so forth. 

[SC Cobbler]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64318181#:~:text=Wages%20at%20the%20League%20One,arbitration%20panel%20in%20February%202021.

This suggests to me clubs can spend what they like on wages. Has something been introduced this season?

[GrangeParkCobbler]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64318181#:~:text=Wages%20at%20the%20League%20One,arbitration%20panel%20in%20February%202021.

This suggests to me clubs can spend what they like on wages. Has something been introduced this season?

Yes, there is SCMP (salary cost management protocol) in place now.
Supposedly 60% of turnover for League 1 and 50% for League 2.

https://www.efl.com/supporters/faqs/rules-and-governance/

[Bingers]

And that had to be taken twice. 

Which made it all the sweeter.

[MCHammer]

I like to consider myself as more of a realist.... we are 18th in the table, three points above the drop zone having played a game more than most around us. We have won four of seventeen games this season in the league. We have won one of our last eight games in all competitions, we have won away from home in the league three times this calendar year.

Most accepted it would be a hard season because of all the hype about Birmingham spending this, Wrexham and their owners doing that.....happy with a bottom six/eight finish. Why cant we aspire to be more like Lincoln, Mansfield or Wycombe...all in the top 10 now. Even Reading with their issues/embargo now sitting 7th.
That is really my disappointment...the acceptance that this (18th) is us!

Football, specifically supporting the Cobblers, was spoiled to a large degree for me the moment I started learning about how football finances work and how owners fund the club.  Long gone are the days when I can simply ask owners to "show some more ambition" or to "aspire to be more like Lincoln, Mansfield or Wycombe" because I understand why we can't.  When people make these kind of statements I'm not convinced they really understand what they are asking.  Essentially people are asking the owners to spend even more of their own money than they currently do, with no liklehood of ever getting it back so we can achieve a top half finish.  

I find comparisons with other sides such a pointless argument as without fail a small amount of investigation always tells you the full story.  As Melly pointed out Wycombe have new billionaire owners.  Lincoln have been making £2m-£3m losses for the last few years.  Mansfield are funded significantly through the owners various business interests and the complexities of various sponsorship deals.  It would be a massive loss making club without the owner and his various funding methods.

Regarding financial regulation at league one and league two level, unless its changed, it's SCMP.  Super complex to understand the full ins and outs but in summary last time I read up about it, each club in league one can spend max 60% of the clubs TURNOVER on players wages.  Turnover essentially being match day income, corporate (sponsorships) and TV/EFL payments.  Owners however can also include in turnover any amount of gifted funds or equity based investment i.e. buying shares.  Directors Loans can't be included.  Clubs can spend whatever they like on transfer fees and there is no limit on losses at this and league two level.

So in reality there are many simple ways to stay within the rules and put in whatever amount an owner is willing to lose.  That doesn't though take away from the fact that nearly all the clubs at league one level are making significant losses every year, some massively more than others.  It really is a case of how much loss is palatable to each owner.

Of course there is a football element to all of this i.e. Brady outperforming his budget but ultimately the gaps are getting wider, the challenge harder and the financial losses greater.  We know this season the budget had to go up significantly once again just to stand a chance of standing still!

As a football fan I of course wish we were more competitive higher up the table but I really am a realist and understand completely what would be needed to achieve that and why 18th would be a success (albeit a very boring one).

Unless the new regulation really does have an impact, which I don't believe it will to any great level, then our only hope is we get lucky and get one of the GOOD billionaires to take the club over who is willing to pumps tens of millions into the club.

[MCHammer]

On the original topic of this thread, Jon Brady.

I find it difficult to judge him at present.  I'm not enjoying the actual football as much this season but that feels very much down to the injuries, the enforced changes and the lack of ability to rotate players when needed.

I thought the Huddersfield match was a perfect blueprint of how to play this season so it's a shame we've gone more basic in our approach in recent weeks though I accept there are reasons for that.  Brady needs to find a way to get players like Roberts and Fosu in the team and on the ball in attacking areas.

I'd just love to see if Brady is as good as I think he might be with a near fully fit squad.  I realise though that will probably never happen and some of that may be his fault.   

[west stand oap]

You don’t always get a “new manager bounce” by sacking the manager. Cambridge are similar to us but Monk only won 2 of his first 20 games. Didn’t see Birmingham get a bounce last season after installing Rooney.