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west stand oap
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« on: December 06, 2022, 13:02:09 pm » |
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Ignoring the covid curtailed season and looking at the last 5 completed seasons the number of points required to secure a 3rd place finish were 80,79,77,81 and 78 (average 79 points).
We currently have 39 points from 20 games (1.95 points per game) so to achieve the highest number of points required from those 5 seasons of 81 points we require another 42 points from 26 games (1.62 points per game) which is quite a drop from what we have already achieved. This is well within our capability but I am sure we are looking to finish higher than 3rd.
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everbrite
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« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2022, 13:08:26 pm » |
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Ignoring the covid curtailed season and looking at the last 5 completed seasons the number of points required to secure a 3rd place finish were 80,79,77,81 and 78 (average 79 points).
We currently have 39 points from 20 games (1.95 points per game) so to achieve the highest number of points required from those 5 seasons of 81 points we require another 42 points from 26 games (1.62 points per game) which is quite a drop from what we have already achieved. This is well within our capability but I am sure we are looking to finish higher than 3rd.
Good research OAP; interesting to see if GPC and Marvo can add to the debate. |
2020 Grand National S/S 3rd Place
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Peter Frost
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« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2022, 14:28:21 pm » |
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Ignoring the covid curtailed season and looking at the last 5 completed seasons the number of points required to secure a 3rd place finish were 80,79,77,81 and 78 (average 79 points).
We currently have 39 points from 20 games (1.95 points per game) so to achieve the highest number of points required from those 5 seasons of 81 points we require another 42 points from 26 games (1.62 points per game) which is quite a drop from what we have already achieved. This is well within our capability but I am sure we are looking to finish higher than 3rd.
Good research - I looked at a bit simpler as achieving very close to two points per game on average always gets you promoted - there is usually a team that sets a first half form higher than this but nearly always falter in the second half - we are in a good place! |
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west stand oap
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« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2022, 11:24:43 am » |
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As I said in the opening post 81 points is the highest that has been required for a 3rd place finish in the last 5 completed seasons.
With half of the season gone we have 43 points (1.87 points per game) so to get to 81 points we need another 38 in the second half of the season (1.65 points per game).
Plus points so far :- Last season we were the lowest scoring team of the promotion chasing sides and now we are the divisions highest scorers (thanks to Sam). The squad is stronger with decent cover in all positions. We only gained 2 points last season from losing positions this season we have come from behind several times to win games but we should not be in that position as often as we have been.
On the debit side:- Last season we kept numerous clean sheets, this season only 5 which is well short of what it should be for a side in our position (Leyton Orient have 14 from 22 games). Our delivery of set pieces needs urgent improvement and we need to be more clinical in front of goal despite being the highest scorers.
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Fred_NTFC
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« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2022, 12:19:57 pm » |
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I think Stockport are going to be the biggest challengers to us & Stevenage, they're absolutely flying & no other sides in the play-offs seem to be consistent enough/will have their potential resources in January. Important game coming up at their place.
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Coolcat
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« Reply #5 on: December 30, 2022, 12:34:15 pm » |
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I think Stockport are going to be the biggest challengers to us & Stevenage, they're absolutely flying & no other sides in the play-offs seem to be consistent enough/will have their potential resources in January. Important game coming up at their place.
Agree! Similar to Mansfield last season, shocking, almost laughable then picked up hugely leading up to Christmas and into the new year. A lot of Stockport fans wanted shot of Dave Challinor a few months ago, some feeling like they were entitled to promotion being the moneybags club (like Wrexham) others blaming the club for over-hyping their ambitions and targets. Will be difficult there nonetheless! |
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west stand oap
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« Reply #6 on: December 30, 2022, 12:51:55 pm » |
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There are a few teams outside of the play off places that are on good runs including Stockport as already mention, AFC Wimbledon unbeaten in their last 10 games gaining 22 points and before loosing last night Walsall had taken 16 points from their previous 6 games.
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Shoemender
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« Reply #7 on: December 30, 2022, 13:50:47 pm » |
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There are a few teams outside of the play off places that are on good runs including Stockport as already mention, AFC Wimbledon unbeaten in their last 10 games gaining 22 points and before loosing last night Walsall had taken 16 points from their previous 6 games.
We'd better buck our ideas up then or someone's going to catch us. Starting with Orient on Monday. |
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Madrid Cobbler
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« Reply #8 on: December 30, 2022, 14:43:28 pm » |
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Good to see some words of caution here. No counting our chickens yet regarding promotion, please. We all know how wrong things can go. However, I will say that I think this team is significantly better than last year's and it would be a real shame if we don't make it. I really don't think this side would struggle in L1 as it is now.
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DavCobb
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« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2022, 16:27:12 pm » |
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Easy to lose your nerve after a disappointing result.
Our home form is concerning but we are still sitting pretty in the autos.
Getting something against the O’s would be a real boost and we can push on from there.
We clearly would have won last night on most other occasions based on the balance of play/chances.
Unless he goes totally off the rails or gets transferred/injured, we should see our first 20 a season scorer in many, many years.
We should know by now that it’s rarely straightforward for us. Please no more play off shenanigans.
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everbrite
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« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2023, 09:53:56 am » |
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I think Stockport are going to be the biggest challengers to us & Stevenage, they're absolutely flying & no other sides in the play-offs seem to be consistent enough/will have their potential resources in January. Important game coming up at their place.
 ....................and then promptly lose to lowly Grimsby who achieved their first win in 10!(according to the papers). No offence Fred as your predictions are generally well laced with common sense  |
2020 Grand National S/S 3rd Place
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everbrite
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« Reply #11 on: January 02, 2023, 09:58:17 am » |
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Good to see some words of caution here. No counting our chickens yet regarding promotion, please. We all know how wrong things can go. However, I will say that I think this team is significantly better than last year's and it would be a real shame if we don't make it. I really don't think this side would struggle in L1 as it is now.
Brave comments Madrid as some on here think the team contains players of League 2 vintage or worse |
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« Last Edit: January 02, 2023, 17:31:37 pm by everbrite »
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2020 Grand National S/S 3rd Place
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west stand oap
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« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2023, 19:37:38 pm » |
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I said when I started this thread that over the last 5 completed seasons the number of points needed to secure a third place finish ranged from 77 to 81 so we should target achieving 81 points for the season. So far we have 46 points and if you divide this by the 26 games so far played and multiply it by the 46 game season we end up on 81.38 points so we are bang on target.
With 20 games to go we need another 35 points which equates to 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats. Obviously recent results have taken a dip but before that we went 9 games unbeaten but we quickly need to return to winning ways.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #13 on: January 15, 2023, 22:06:48 pm » |
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If we average what we got the first 11 games of the season we'll end up with 95pts. Likely Champions?
If we average what we've done the last 15 games we'll end up with 72pts. Might just squeeze in the play-offs?
Will the real Northampton Town stand up and show themselves.
I'd feel a lot more confident if those games had come the other way round.
Still, two weeks of the transfer window left.
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It's all about balance.
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guest2995
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« Reply #14 on: January 16, 2023, 07:06:11 am » |
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With the injuries we have and those that look like they could be sidelined for a good few weeks or more , i would say we need some of our more unspectacular players performing above their ability to maintain our position.
The goal keeper is going to have to come good straight away and we are going to be exposed across the entire back line , especially centre half .
It’s going to be a case of scraping through the next month because i would doubt we will sign anyone of any consequence that will make a difference .
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #15 on: January 16, 2023, 12:03:50 pm » |
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« Last Edit: January 16, 2023, 13:39:30 pm by TPFKA Marvo »
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It's all about balance.
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WadeyCobbler
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« Reply #16 on: January 16, 2023, 12:15:09 pm » |
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Great data and lovely graph.
Current form is the worry though, we need to arrest the dip quickly.
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singcobb
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« Reply #17 on: January 16, 2023, 12:35:17 pm » |
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That graph does not show minimum points needed, it shows the final points tally for the champions, third place and 7th place.
For example in the 2002-3 season 75 points would have been enough for automatic promotion it just so happens that Wrexham finished in 3rd on 84 points, 10 points clear of Bournemouth on 74.
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Mysterious Curle
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« Reply #19 on: January 16, 2023, 13:46:06 pm » |
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That graph does not show minimum points needed, it shows the final points tally for the champions, third place and 7th place.
For example in the 2002-3 season 75 points would have been enough for automatic promotion it just so happens that Wrexham finished in 3rd on 84 points, 10 points clear of Bournemouth on 74.
Its also a bit misleading as it says 80 points would have got us promoted last season  |
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