Bums on seats (mark 2)

[MCHammer]

Overall I tend to agree with most of what Drilling and Dav have posted.

I personally have always believed that with the right, substantial financial backing this club could achieve Championship level football.  I genuinely believe that if the product on the pitch is good enough, the facilities are big enough and of good standard and the opposition well supported this club could double it's average attendance.  I base this on my own experience of knowing many people that go to big games when the team is doing well and the atmosphere is good but don't bother when it's not.

Our location is good and we have a large relatively exclusive catchment area.  We also have a ground with plenty of room for expansion.

The problem is obvious and that's finance.  If it was simple do people really not think anyone in our entire history would have done it already? People can talk about investment banks, fan led bonds etc. but the reality is none of that would touch the sides unless the people running the club were seriously minted.  As someone else pointed out it also gets harder each year when your competition isn't standing still and other clubs suddenly become seriously minted.

I don't want a fan led, community owned club unless the overall structure of football becomes fairer, which it won't.  Under current rules it would just make permanent  the glass ceiling we currently have.  Sure certain things would be "better" but imagine trying to run at break even every year and the challenges that would bring!

Where I agree with Drilling completely is I just want the land deal to get done and the owners exit plan, if they have one, to happen.  Where I have a little bit more trepedation than a lot of people is I'm not convinced there is some massively wealthy benefactor waiting in the wings.  History shows we are more likely to end up with someone who can only match what the current owners did or even worse someone that cnb't even do that after the initial excitement dies down.

In my opinion I also think people need to move away from comparisons with what other clubs have achieved.  Pretty much without fail every example people give of other clubs success or ground expansion has it's own story of complexity, difficulty, overspend and has always been backed by enabling development, significant borrowing or massive owner investment.  It's ok to aspire to want more but you have to be honest and acknowledge how difficult that is to achieve.

I've said before, to be honest if there is a rich benefactor out there surely this is an ideal time to buy and develop the club.  Pretty stable financially, loads of land you can develop, league one club with good manager, coaching, decent improving training facilities and brilliant community work.  

[Terryfenwickatemyhamster]

Why would I do that? Shouldn’t that be the leaseholders?
I have done more stadium deals all over the world than you’ve had hot dinners FACT.

    The gift that keeps giving..

[Terryfenwickatemyhamster]

Maths is obviously not one of your strong points is it Nigel ?

 

[MCHammer]

OK, Tottenham, Atlanta Falcons, LA RAMs..
Because the leaseholders are not interested in medium term investment, so it would be a waste of time.

Nice.  Come on then mate what was your personal role and what did you deliver as part of those developments then?  What is your area of expertise?  Not trying to out your identity here but you've got to give us more than that.

I mean this without malice but if stadium developments really are your area you have literally never posted anything on here over all these years to demonstrate that level of expertise.

Bit of a cop out on the club by the way to not even try.  Surely would have been worth an attempt even if it came to nothing.  What about the Trust etc.  They'd be crying out for your level of insight.

Also at this level you must deal with high net worth individuals in the states as potential investors?  

[MCHammer]

OK everyone knows that not all, but most, would bring the extra 1,000 fans. So we take off £24,000 for each team that doesn't bring those numbers, it still brings in a lot more than £180K . Also if we have extra capacity not being used by away fans we can do some deals to try to attract more home fans

Did everyone know that.  I know one person that clearly didn't and failed to include it in their calculations   

ANyway why not make it easier and use the figure KT himself shared a few months ago.  Can't remember the term for it but there is an actual figure that tells you what each individual additional seat would earn the club NET.  Think from memory is was something like £16 but I really can't remember for sure.

Having said that all a bit pointless guessing at figures and as Melly rightly pointed out all you proved is that at your best GUESS you would halve the average loss the club make annually and not for several years.  Hardly a difference maker in the overall scheme of things when another £1m on the playing budget would only put us mid table at best.

In a nutshell that's why it isn't as easy a solution as some make out and again as Melly points out, and gets loads of stick for, you have to find someone that is willing to put up that kind of money in the first place.

[Welly Cobb]

I think the term is blended figure.

The one thing that I always thought was wrong with the assumptions is that there's a belief that the extra capacity would be fully utilised on day's we're at max capacity. On the rare occasion that we do sell out (and we have a few times this year), why would you assume that if you had build another 1000 seats, you'd get 1000 more spectators for that match, and not just 200 or 400 more on the day instead?

[MCHammer]

Do you know what an investment bank is? Clue, there’s quite a famous one near you beginning with M, they financed Wembley.

How much do you reckon an investment bank would be willing to lend the club in it's current position.  What assets would they secure that investment against?  Lastly what sort of terms generally do you think they would be offering, ballpark?

[Terryfenwickatemyhamster]

In a nutshell that's why it isn't as easy a solution as some make out and again as Melly points out, and gets loads of stick for, you have to find someone that is willing to put up that kind of money in the first place.

iMelly is right. No matter how much noise and fuss they make, insulting him, then miraculously becoming captains of industry overnight   He’s only telling the truth. Throw that in with my point. That they simply won’t do it, and you have the perfect answer.

[Terryfenwickatemyhamster]

Do you know what an investment bank is? Clue, there’s quite a famous one near you beginning with M, they financed Wembley.

Well, let’s give them a quick ring. See if they will trade what we own. A few items in the club shop, and some concourse TV's, for a few million quid. They'd be mad to refuse.

[Dan]

Few things from me. And I don’t want to derail the thread because it’s about fan numbers, not about the owners.

1) We still are set to host Portsmouth, Oxford, Bolton, Derby, and Charlton. All of these would bring 3,000 to us with ease if they could. Say an average ticket price of approx £18 maybe. Approximately 1,550 extra tickets for each of those. Fag packet figure of £139,500 from five sets of away fans.

2) Wigan, Bristol Rovers, Cambridge, Port Vale, Exeter all could bring 2,000 plus. Approx 550 extra tickets for each of these. Fag packet figure of £49,500.

3) If we could have fit in more home fans for Posh and Barnsley, we would have. It’s fact. If groups of floating fans want tickets for high interest games and can only get individual seats, they’re not buying tickets. Fact. This is applicable to the above games too.

4) Irrespective of anything else, get the boxes in and that’s 6 figures plus generated each year.

[Coolcat]

Few things from me. And I don’t want to derail the thread because it’s about fan numbers, not about the owners.

1) We still are set to host Portsmouth, Oxford, Bolton, Derby, and Charlton. All of these would bring 3,000 to us with ease if they could. Say an average ticket price of approx £18 maybe. Approximately 1,550 extra tickets for each of those. Fag packet figure of £139,500 from five sets of away fans.

2) Wigan, Bristol Rovers, Cambridge, Port Vale, Exeter all could bring 2,000 plus. Approx 550 extra tickets for each of these. Fag packet figure of £49,500.

3) If we could have fit in more home fans for Posh and Barnsley, we would have. It’s fact. If groups of floating fans want tickets for high interest games and can only get individual seats, they’re not buying tickets. Fact. This is applicable to the above games too.

4) Irrespective of anything else, get the boxes in and that’s 6 figures plus generated each year.

1. Indeed ✅
2. Well, over 1,250 certainly! ✅
3. Of course - and as Marvo said, we can't wait until a successful season comes along, then realise, oh we need to increase capacity! Hardly forward thinking business planning! ✅
4. Minimum! ✅

[Melbourne Cobbler]

A couple of pages a go on this exciting new redev thread I put up a financial scenario and asked people where they would get the money from. For those interested I can tell you right now as fact (and it’s a real fact) that scenario wouldn’t get you the money from a bank. If you believe raising finance is relatively simple read it again, I wrote it and I still can’t believe it myself even though I know it to be true.

[DavCobb]

A couple of pages a go on this exciting new redev thread I put up a financial scenario and asked people where they would get the money from. For those interested I can tell you right now as fact (and it’s a real fact) that scenario wouldn’t get you the money from a bank. If you believe raising finance is relatively simple read it again, I wrote it and I still can’t believe it myself even though I know it to be true.

Grossman? He’s good at raising ‘free’ capital.

[Melbourne Cobbler]

Few things from me. And I don’t want to derail the thread because it’s about fan numbers, not about the owners.

1) We still are set to host Portsmouth, Oxford, Bolton, Derby, and Charlton. All of these would bring 3,000 to us with ease if they could. Say an average ticket price of approx £18 maybe. Approximately 1,550 extra tickets for each of those. Fag packet figure of £139,500 from five sets of away fans.

2) Wigan, Bristol Rovers, Cambridge, Port Vale, Exeter all could bring 2,000 plus. Approx 550 extra tickets for each of these. Fag packet figure of £49,500.

3) If we could have fit in more home fans for Posh and Barnsley, we would have. It’s fact. If groups of floating fans want tickets for high interest games and can only get individual seats, they’re not buying tickets. Fact. This is applicable to the above games too.

4) Irrespective of anything else, get the boxes in and that’s 6 figures plus generated each year.

We lose 7. Look I’m not making this stuff up, unless you have someone prepared to put up collateral to offset the risk you won’t get the funding. And even then you may not get it. You can put up all the exciting figures about attendances, away support and catchment areas you like, it doesn’t make any difference.

[DavCobb]

We lose 7. Look I’m not making this stuff up, unless you have someone prepared to put up collateral to offset the risk you won’t get the funding. And even then you may not get it. You can put up all the exciting figures about attendances, away support and catchment areas you like, it doesn’t make any difference.

Not forgetting we’ve apparently got the money for point 4. Plus it’s an assumption they haven’t got the money for the rest. Regardless, it’s pretty apparent they don’t want to, which makes you wonder why they bothered coming here if it was nothing to do with the land. To lose £1m a year or for the love of NTFC. 

[Dan]

We lose 7. Look I’m not making this stuff up, unless you have someone prepared to put up collateral to offset the risk you won’t get the funding. And even then you may not get it. You can put up all the exciting figures about attendances, away support and catchment areas you like, it doesn’t make any difference.

Melbourne, I absolutely understand your repeated point of view on this topic.

Dav Cobbler has hit the nail on the head. Our owners do not want to spend money on this.

This topic is the biggest reason why I put my head on the chopping block and went for Supporters Representative. It is now time for Tom to start applying pressure to make some of these things happen.

This club cannot keep missing out on revenue any longer. I’m thrilled at how well the crowds have held up this year, and now is absolutely the time to increase capacity.

5 figures minimum and sooner than later.

Up to you David, Kelvin, James and Tom. Failure to act and this club will literally never progress beyond yo-yo status.

[Melbourne Cobbler]

Not forgetting we’ve apparently got the money for point 4. Plus it’s an assumption they haven’t got the money for the rest. Regardless, it’s pretty apparent they don’t want to, which makes you wonder why they bothered coming here if it was nothing to do with the land. To lose £1m a year or for the love of NTFC. 

Right, but they’re using the land as collateral. Maybe that’s why they couldn’t unconditionally complete the stand prior to acquiring the land, couldn’t raise the finance. The possibilities are endless. We had a golden opportunity with a local authority willing and able to help the club circumnavigate this whole financial brick wall, and that was taken away from us. Be it mismanagement or something more sinister if people want to vent their frustration I would be looking there. Although given Sixfields was totally inadequate from the get go the local authority route doesn’t seem to be without its own risks.

[Melbourne Cobbler]

Melbourne, I absolutely understand your repeated point of view on this topic.

Dav Cobbler has hit the nail on the head. Our owners do not want to spend money on this.

This topic is the biggest reason why I put my head on the chopping block and went for Supporters Representative. It is now time for Tom to start applying pressure to make some of these things happen.

This club cannot keep missing out on revenue any longer. I’m thrilled at how well the crowds have held up this year, and now is absolutely the time to increase capacity.

5 figures minimum and sooner than later.

Up to you David, Kelvin, James and Tom. Failure to act and this club will literally never progress beyond yo-yo status.

Pressure how though Dan, if they feel they won’t get their money back you are trying to pressure people into a gift. The income from the land pays for the stand, that’s the only way this will get done. The fact the guarantee was removed from the bidding process is irrelevant. All the council need to do is ensure the guarantees are there before the final contracts are signed off on and both parties, the council and the owners, have publicly stated this will happen. Instead of the support base, myself included, going round in circles arguing about whether they will or not assume they are and start thinking about what constitutes completed. Because as stated, I suspect many might be underwhelmed with the final result.

[Tabasco Kid]

Up to you David, Kelvin, James and Tom. Failure to act and this club will literally never progress beyond yo-yo status.

My biggest concern, is that the natural level of a yo-yo is at the bottom.

[Manwork04]

Nice.  Come on then mate what was your personal role and what did you deliver as part of those developments then?  What is your area of expertise?  Not trying to out your identity here but you've got to give us more than that.

I mean this without malice but if stadium developments really are your area you have literally never posted anything on here over all these years to demonstrate that level of expertise.

Bit of a cop out on the club by the way to not even try.  Surely would have been worth an attempt even if it came to nothing.  What about the Trust etc.  They'd be crying out for your level of insight.

Also at this level you must deal with high net worth individuals in the states as potential investors?  

My personal role was to advise on technology, business case and finance.
I’ve been to Arthur Blanks house if that counts.