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Relegation Watch

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Melbourne Cobbler
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« Reply #180 on: February 27, 2024, 19:57:24 pm »

Well that's it then. As soon as the government get involved it is the death knell of football. They'll be coming up with rules like your team must contain at least two women, one trans person and three Idon'tf***ingknows.
Thatís section 8 subsection 4
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Tabasco Kid
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« Reply #181 on: February 27, 2024, 21:08:37 pm »

Thatís section 8 subsection 4
Grin
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Were in the pipe 5 by 5.
singcobb
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« Reply #182 on: February 28, 2024, 14:38:44 pm »

That’s section 8 subsection 4

Paragraph 3.
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west stand oap
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« Reply #183 on: March 01, 2024, 09:52:26 am »

According to the latest computer end of season forecast we are already safe with 48 points and that will probably prove to be correct. It has Cambridge once again finishing just above the line in 20th position with 46 points. We are forecast to finish 10th on 66 points, another 18 points from our remaining 12 games and that would be more than acceptable.
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1971cobbler
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« Reply #184 on: March 01, 2024, 11:23:15 am »

According to the latest computer end of season forecast we are already safe with 48 points and that will probably prove to be correct. It has Cambridge once again finishing just above the line in 20th position with 46 points. We are forecast to finish 10th on 66 points, another 18 points from our remaining 12 games and that would be more than acceptable.

Also has Exeter occupying the last relegation place, forecasting that they will only gain two more points between now and the seasons end!
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #185 on: March 16, 2024, 15:53:56 pm »

At half-time the bottom 6 have hot just 1 point between them. This could be the season where you get a team survive on a very low total. I reckon we've already got enough points.
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singcobb
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« Reply #186 on: March 16, 2024, 17:54:43 pm »

At half-time the bottom 6 have hot just 1 point between them. This could be the season where you get a team survive on a very low total. I reckon we've already got enough points.

We are safe by a country mile. The bottom three are pretty much certs to go down and the last spot is between Chelts, Cambridge and Burton. I'd like to Burton gone for a.
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« Reply #187 on: March 16, 2024, 18:06:20 pm »

We are safe by a country mile. The bottom three are pretty much certs to go down and the last spot is between Chelts, Cambridge and Burton. I'd like to Burton gone for a.
Cheltenham and Burton, are both decent days out. Cambridge isnt. I know which I prefer.
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the grumpy old man
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« Reply #188 on: March 16, 2024, 18:30:42 pm »

Carlisle can't catch us, just need another three. The way we are playing at the moment I won't believe we are safe until it's mathematical.
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Bingers
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« Reply #189 on: March 16, 2024, 19:01:07 pm »

Carlisle can't catch us, just need another three.

Hurrah! First milestone passed, we can't finish bottom.
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GrangeParkCobbler
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« Reply #190 on: March 16, 2024, 20:26:28 pm »

Its highly unlikely we will get overhauled by so many teams that we end up 4th bottom, that said when you look at the teams down there and see they have a game or two in hand and if they win those it might make me a little more nervous!!

However, Port Vale are 14 games without a win so I don't believe they will win 6 or 7 of their last nine to overtake us. Fleetwood have one win in nine but need six wins from their last seven to overtake us. Cheltenham after a small uptick are now without a win in six and would need to win six of their last 9 to overtake us. Cambridge have no wins in seven and Burton none in 6.

As it stands the magic points total to be sure of avoiding relegation, taking into account the maximum any team below us can get and the fact some of them have to play each other is currently 57.
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« Reply #191 on: March 16, 2024, 20:51:42 pm »

Its highly unlikely we will get overhauled by so many teams that we end up 4th bottom, that said when you look at the teams down there and see they have a game or two in hand and if they win those it might make me a little more nervous!!

However, Port Vale are 14 games without a win so I don't believe they will win 6 or 7 of their last nine to overtake us. Fleetwood have one win in nine but need six wins from their last seven to overtake us. Cheltenham after a small uptick are now without a win in six and would need to win six of their last 9 to overtake us. Cambridge have no wins in seven and Burton none in 6.

As it stands the magic points total to be sure of avoiding relegation, taking into account the maximum any team below us can get and the fact some of them have to play each other is currently 57.

All of those teams you mention won't even get to 48 points, maybe even 45 points. Two more points at least would be nice though. We have Carlisle and Port Vale at home and Fleetwood away so we will be THAT mid-table team everybody wants at this stage of the season.
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« Reply #192 on: March 29, 2024, 18:49:57 pm »

Hurrah! First milestone passed, we can't finish bottom.

Bit by bit we're getting there - we can't finish in the bottom two now!
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #193 on: April 01, 2024, 14:45:06 pm »

Table as it stands, Carlisle relegated.
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It's all about balance.
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« Reply #194 on: April 01, 2024, 15:57:14 pm »

Bit by bit we're getting there - we can't finish in the bottom two now!

Another one falls by the wayside. Burton can't catch us now.
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« Reply #195 on: April 01, 2024, 16:17:47 pm »

Thought someone would have used a super computer to tell us we are now mathematically safe when taking the remaining fixtures into consideration.
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DavCobb
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« Reply #196 on: April 02, 2024, 08:37:06 am »

I think we probably are mathematically safe, unless someone can prove otherwise, 10 teams needing to overhaul us with only 5,6 or 7 games remaining who will be playing one another...good luck working that one out!

No reason we can't aim for 65 points with the remaining fixtures, which would be a solid season. I don't think the 18th that some were quite recently predicting is likely.
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« Reply #197 on: April 02, 2024, 09:27:21 am »

Someone had a prediction thread going near the start of the season. Can anyone link it I'd like to see how well its turned out. I know I was wrong on 2 things (probably). I didnt think Sammy Hoskins would be top scorer and I thought we'd finish above Stevenage. 65 points is what we'd need to do that. Plus they lost their remaining games. And noone is getting close to Sam.
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TVOR
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« Reply #198 on: April 02, 2024, 09:35:28 am »

Someone had a prediction thread going near the start of the season. Can anyone link it I'd like to see how well its turned out. I know I was wrong on 2 things (probably). I didnt think Sammy Hoskins would be top scorer and I thought we'd finish above Stevenage. 65 points is what we'd need to do that. Plus they lost their remaining games. And noone is getting close to Sam.
https://www.smfserver.com/forums/thehotelend/index.php/topic,22415.0.html

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Will the builders have returned to work on the East Stand?
Technically yes. Removed a few weeds and had a photo taken!  Grin
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DavCobb
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« Reply #199 on: April 02, 2024, 10:14:01 am »

Looks as though we are on course to surpass the position that just about everyone predicted who commented. I probably would have said 13th to 16th and Orient should be our target to overhaul into 10th. It should add a little optimism for a good second season, although the team may be pretty unrecognisable.
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