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Play-off watch

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Author Topic: Play-off watch  (Read 11760 times)
west stand oap
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« Reply #20 on: December 27, 2023, 07:39:18 am »

There is zero chance of us competing for a place in the play offs, we have already lost 12 games in the first half of the season.

But with 30 points in the bag already and no team being relegated in the last 10 years with 51 points we only need another 21 points to be safe from relegation. In fact the average number of points required over the 10 tear period was 48.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2023, 20:45:49 pm »

Its back on! All we need to do is get us a goal scorer.
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Bingers
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« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2023, 20:48:40 pm »

We were nearly top of our sub section tonight. Only a late Rovers goal between us and 9th place.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #23 on: December 29, 2023, 21:18:00 pm »

Portsmouth, Bolton, Peterborough & Derby are probably a class apart and will almost surely fill the top 4 places. But that leaves two spots. Are we really saying we can't compete with Stevenage, Oxford, Barnsley, Blackpool & Bristol Rovers? Really?

The chairman has got to back Brady in this transfer window and bring in some goals for us. It's got to be worth the gamble, these opportunities don't come around that often.
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west stand oap
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« Reply #24 on: December 29, 2023, 21:26:20 pm »

Well we didn't compete with Stevenage on Boxing Day.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #25 on: December 29, 2023, 21:36:35 pm »

Well we didn't compete with Stevenage on Boxing Day.

But we beat Oxford, Peterborough and Blackpool. What's your point? Youi can't win every game, you should be more supportive of your team.

Also remember what Everbrite said in the first week of the season. Stevenage are a flash in the pan and he wouldn't be in the slightest surprised if we finish above them.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #26 on: December 29, 2023, 22:07:14 pm »

I'd say each of those wins were blue moon moments. If we finish top ten I'll be chuffed. Playoffs ecstatic. 14th or 15th is realistic
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #27 on: December 29, 2023, 22:30:59 pm »

I'd say each of those wins were blue moon moments. If we finish top ten I'll be chuffed. Playoffs ecstatic. 14th or 15th is realistic

Surely that's with what we have now? What if Brady is allowed to bring in two or three players that prove successful?

If you don't dream then you can't have a dream come true.
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bringbackbroadhurst
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« Reply #28 on: December 30, 2023, 07:34:45 am »

I'm just enjoying where we are and how we're playing.

It would be amazing to reach the play-offs, but it would probably be the worst thing for us in the bigger picture. Think 1998-99.

If the stand saga comes to an end next year and we can attract some investment, then that's the time to look at things differently, perhaps.

A few years of stable League One finishes and more nights like last night is all I want.
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west stand oap
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« Reply #29 on: December 30, 2023, 07:40:55 am »

Of the teams above us we have beaten Peterborough, Blackpool and Oxford and lost all of the other 7 games taking 9 points from a possible 30.

You don't have to be a "mastermind" to think this thread is "pointless" but the "countdown" is on, let "the chase" begin.
"Opportunity knocks" but only 4 teams have a worse defensive record, will this be "the weakest link"?
Perhaps the "tipping point" will be the transfer window, will JB get a "deal or no deal" and will "the price be right"?
At the end of the day it is just a "question of sport".

Sorry, I have too much spare time.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #30 on: December 30, 2023, 08:03:56 am »

1st. Portsmouth.
Lost 0-3 at home to Blackpool and haven't win for 3 games, including draws with two team in the bottom 5.

2nd. Bolton.
Lost 0-4 at home to Wigan.

3rd. Peterborough.
Also lost to Wigan and of course us.

4th. Derby
Lost their first three home games.

It's easy to find chinks in any armour, even in the top four teams in this division. There are a couple of play-offs spots up for grabs, why not us? Over the last 10 games we've the 6th best record in the division. This may be our moment because history tells us we don't fare to well in our second season in the third tier.
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tcobb
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« Reply #31 on: December 30, 2023, 13:09:23 pm »

With 22 games to play we need another 45 points or there abouts, W12 D9 L1 i dont think we have that form in this team to reach the play-offs.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #32 on: December 30, 2023, 13:36:23 pm »

With 22 games to play we need another 45 points or there abouts, W12 D9 L1 i dont think we have that form in this team to reach the play-offs.

How about 15 wins, 7 defeats?

Anyway, I don't think anyone believes this squad as it is will do it BUT like I and others have said before, 3 astute signings could make all the difference. Its unlikely but not totally out of the realms of possibility.
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tcobb
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« Reply #33 on: December 30, 2023, 14:49:23 pm »

 We could get 3 excellent signings, but they are likely just going to be replacements for Bowie, Hoskins and Leonard. Even if we kept this squad i cant see us getting 15 more wins.
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west stand oap
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« Reply #34 on: December 31, 2023, 12:03:31 pm »

The average number of points to achieve a 6th place finish over the last 10 completed seasons is 73 with the highest being 81 (2 seasons ago) and under 70 on 3 occasions.
So to get to 73 points we would need another 40 points from our remaining 22 games, almost 2 points a game which is a tall order.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #35 on: December 31, 2023, 12:14:35 pm »

If we beat Cheltenham Monday and keep on gaining points at the same rate as we have this season, we'd end up with 66pts. That's not far short you know. This transfer window is crucial.
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DrillingCobbler
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« Reply #36 on: December 31, 2023, 12:25:46 pm »

The team in 7th, is currently shooting towards 84 points.

I think that's our biggest issue. We would need to perform top3, for 22 games whilst others would have too slip up a fair bit.

Of course everything can change quickly. Win tomorrow and a couple of the teams lose around 5th/6th, and we could be 7 points off...which makes things look much more doable.

Statistically we've probably got about a 2% chance, but I wont be booking any holidays around the play off dates yet, just in case!!  Grin
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Terryfenwickatemyhamster
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« Reply #37 on: December 31, 2023, 12:46:21 pm »

I'd love us to push on. But we are not going to make the play offs. We are still quite inconsistent, as recent performances have shown. Plus I very much doubt there will be any significant increase in the playing budget any time soon.
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west stand oap
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« Reply #38 on: December 31, 2023, 12:51:34 pm »

We are not keeping enough clean sheets and are conceding too many goals, only Shrewsbury and 3 of the bottom 4 have conceded more. We have conceded 15 in our last 7 away games and wont win many conceding over 2 goals per game.
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« Reply #39 on: December 31, 2023, 13:00:48 pm »

I'd love us to push on. But we are not going to make the play offs. We are still quite inconsistent, as recent performances have shown. Plus I very much doubt there will be any significant increase in the playing budget any time soon.

If we can retain current squad it is possible to have a decent season. If we are on a Dave Bowen type of season then next season maybe the one to watch.
Otherwise Terrys comments smack of common sense
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