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Play-off watch

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Author Topic: Play-off watch  (Read 11690 times)
TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #360 on: March 17, 2024, 08:19:57 am »

Apologies Marvo - I sometimes have an issue with your logic!

I know you do Everbrite, that's why I try and speak very, very slowly.

Your problem is, if you don't mind me saying, is that you only want to hear posts that agree with your point of view, rubbishing any that stray from the party line. For example, at the start of the campaign when others were worrying whether we'd be able to avoid relegation this season, I was reassuring, using history as a yardstick and saying that we can expect to be okay. You had no problem with that whatsoever. Now though when I use the same yardstick to say in all likelihood we face a relegation dogfight next season, one I feel personally we will lose, you're up in arms, I'm not a real supporter, history counts for nothing. You can't have it both ways.
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Winslow Lee
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« Reply #361 on: March 17, 2024, 09:40:48 am »

Yes, it was a gamble but if you don't buy a ticket, you can't win the jackpot.

Isn’t that the crux of it. While there is a mathematical chance then anything is possible to varying degrees of probability. What Lincoln are doing or our present form prove nothing about a potential future that never existed. It comes down to a philosophical choice, your lottery analogy is a good one. I would never say no to more money but choose not to do the lottery, even though someone is guaranteed to win the odds are too astronomical for me and I’d rather just use that money elsewhere. For you maybe that jackpot is worth buying tickets for. The whole debate has surely become tiresome now and whether Lincoln do or don’t make the playoffs is irrelevant and not worth talking about.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #362 on: March 17, 2024, 09:52:44 am »

Isn’t that the crux of it. While there is a mathematical chance then anything is possible to varying degrees of probability. What Lincoln are doing or our present form prove nothing about a potential future that never existed. It comes down to a philosophical choice, your lottery analogy is a good one. I would never say no to more money but choose not to do the lottery, even though someone is guaranteed to win the odds are too astronomical for me and I’d rather just use that money elsewhere. For you maybe that jackpot is worth buying tickets for. The whole debate has surely become tiresome now and whether Lincoln do or don’t make the playoffs is irrelevant and not worth talking about.

I agree. If we get relegated next season, we might look back and say "we might as well have had a go" (bought the ticket). The club decided not to, we'll never know what might have happened had they, so let that be the end to it.
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MCHammer
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« Reply #363 on: March 17, 2024, 11:31:24 am »

Always thought it's pointless making comparisons with how other clubs are doing.  Let's face it none of us have in depth knowledge about other clubs so how do we know we are even comparing like with like?

Our club is nowhere near ready for the Championship and in my view a promotion at the wrong time could actually be more damaging in the long run than beneficial. 

I think the right decision was made in January, all things cosidered.  It's always a window you overpay for your targets and I don't believe without significant "investment/more debt" we would improved enough to compete with clubs that have way bigger budgets anyway.
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« Reply #364 on: March 17, 2024, 12:45:14 pm »

It was good that we got promoted last season and not the season before as we came up with a much settled squad. In the less than 1% chance we gained promotion again this season we would have come back down with minimal points. After 30 games we had 41 points so if we gained 2 points a game from the last 16 games we would have finished on 73 points which may not be enough. There is no point being in the play offs if you are not going to get promoted and given our results against the other likely play off teams that would be extremely unlikely over the 3 games.

We now have people who were accusing us of having a lack of ambition doing exactly that by saying we are likely to go back down next season. History does not always repeat itself otherwise we would not have lost yesterday as we had not lost any of our previous 11 visits to Wycombe.

We have taken 7 points from 5 games against last seasons relegated Championship teams with Reading still to play away, it is probable that we wont get as many against the teams that come down from the Championship this season. But in 5 games against the 3 teams who came up with us we have only taken 2 points with Carlisle still to play at home so we could end up with 5 points from the 6 games if we win, I think we are capable of taking at least 5 points from 6 games against any 3 of the 4 teams who come up from Division 2 this season so what you lose on the swings you gain on the roundabouts.

How we do next season will largely depend on our transfer business in the summer which fortunately was not wasted in chasing the rainbow in January.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #365 on: March 17, 2024, 12:51:10 pm »

It was good that we got promoted last season and not the season before as we came up with a much settled squad. In the less than 1% chance we gained promotion again this season we would have come back down with minimal points. After 30 games we had 41 points so if we gained 2 points a game from the last 16 games we would have finished on 73 points which may not be enough. There is no point being in the play offs if you are not going to get promoted and given our results against the other likely play off teams that would be extremely unlikely over the 3 games.

We now have people who were accusing us of having a lack of ambition doing exactly that by saying we are likely to go back down next season. History does not always repeat itself otherwise we would not have lost yesterday as we had not lost any of our previous 11 visits to Wycombe.

We have taken 7 points from 5 games against last seasons relegated Championship teams with Reading still to play away, it is probable that we wont get as many against the teams that come down from the Championship this season. But in 5 games against the 3 teams who came up with us we have only taken 2 points with Carlisle still to play at home so we could end up with 5 points from the 6 games if we win, I think we are capable of taking at least 5 points from 6 games against any 3 of the 4 teams who come up from Division 2 this season so what you lose on the swings you gain on the roundabouts.

How we do next season will largely depend on our transfer business in the summer which fortunately was not wasted in chasing the rainbow in January.

If's, buts and maybes.

Of course nothing is certain but there's a reason the bookies make a lot of money. We'll be one of the favourites for the drop.
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« Reply #366 on: March 29, 2024, 19:49:54 pm »

I know everyone’s thinking it. And it had to go in the thread on the day that it happened.

Lincoln are in the play offs. They play Oxford too so it’s fully in their hands. Good luck to them.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #367 on: March 29, 2024, 21:53:06 pm »

I know everyone’s thinking it. And it had to go in the thread on the day that it happened.

Lincoln are in the play offs. They play Oxford too so it’s fully in their hands. Good luck to them.

Now, now then Dan, you can't expect us to compete with a city the size of Lincoln, with such a massive fan base and their history and tradition of being a top end football club. Don't forget, in 1901-2 they finished 5th in the second division! We need to know our place.  Wink Tongue
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« Reply #368 on: March 30, 2024, 13:07:16 pm »

 Wink of course not.that 1902 season really does set them apart from us.

That said, you and I will always look back at this season as a missed opportunity
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Larry
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« Reply #369 on: March 30, 2024, 13:26:57 pm »

Wink of course not.that 1902 season really does set them apart from us.

That said, you and I will always look back at this season as a missed opportunity

I'm not so sure. We've rarely had a positive WDL record so despite our apparent position it's generally top of bottom half. You can only tweak the squad with what's available in January and there's nothing around like the summer with players out of contract. This is real football not Football Manager 2024
We are having a great season, outperforming many of our peers in this division. The summer will be a good time to persuade decent quality players that they dont risk a relegation battle if they sign for us.
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« Reply #370 on: April 02, 2024, 08:06:54 am »

I know everyone’s thinking it. And it had to go in the thread on the day that it happened.

Lincoln are in the play offs. They play Oxford too so it’s fully in their hands. Good luck to them.
An Oxford team who did more business in January than Lincoln yet have gone backwards?
Blackpool also did more business but gone backwards, similar with Wigan.

Lincoln took a gamble and it paid off. Well done. Still stand by the club took the right path in January.
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Dan
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« Reply #371 on: April 02, 2024, 08:39:48 am »

  Thank you Larry and Tvor for your opinions  Smiley

I respect them both despite not agreeing. Regrettably we will never know what would have happened if we’d gone for it, but that is football.

Roll on next season 👍🏽
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« Reply #372 on: April 02, 2024, 08:55:49 am »

  Thank you Larry and Tvor for your opinions  Smiley

I respect them both despite not agreeing. Regrettably we will never know what would have happened if we’d gone for it, but that is football.

Roll on next season 👍🏽
Agree, summer will be interesting, especially as we will need to replace Leonard and Bowie, as well as strengthen elsewhere. Good news is we have more money in the pot from the January savings  Wink
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« Reply #373 on: April 02, 2024, 12:31:10 pm »

Whilst we do not know where we finished I think that injuries alone (let alone a lack of overall quality) would have put a stop to any playoff dreams. Lincoln are now 15 unbeaten which is a seriously impressive upturn in form.

Realistically where would we have wanted to strengthen at the time in January? Probably a striker, winger and midfielder at that point.

I certainly dont think we would have been looking at full backs considering how many we already had on the books which looking back retrospectively we would have needed, along with a better quality keeper. The injuries to all of our backline have been horrendous and whilst by now are no longer a surprise i dont believe it would have been possible to fill the gaps that have popped up since January whilst still adding real high quality up top.

Thats not be lacking ambition btw, do I want us to push for the playoffs? Absolutely I do. Just dont think it was on the cards this season based on the bodies we have consistently been missing.
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« Reply #374 on: April 02, 2024, 13:08:18 pm »

Whilst we do not know where we finished I think that injuries alone (let alone a lack of overall quality) would have put a stop to any playoff dreams. Lincoln are now 15 unbeaten which is a seriously impressive upturn in form.

Realistically where would we have wanted to strengthen at the time in January? Probably a striker, winger and midfielder at that point.

I certainly dont think we would have been looking at full backs considering how many we already had on the books which looking back retrospectively we would have needed, along with a better quality keeper. The injuries to all of our backline have been horrendous and whilst by now are no longer a surprise i dont believe it would have been possible to fill the gaps that have popped up since January whilst still adding real high quality up top.

Thats not be lacking ambition btw, do I want us to push for the playoffs? Absolutely I do. Just dont think it was on the cards this season based on the bodies we have consistently been missing.

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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #375 on: April 02, 2024, 13:28:39 pm »

Whilst we do not know where we finished I think that injuries alone (let alone a lack of overall quality) would have put a stop to any playoff dreams. Lincoln are now 15 unbeaten which is a seriously impressive upturn in form.

Realistically where would we have wanted to strengthen at the time in January? Probably a striker, winger and midfielder at that point.

I certainly dont think we would have been looking at full backs considering how many we already had on the books which looking back retrospectively we would have needed, along with a better quality keeper. The injuries to all of our backline have been horrendous and whilst by now are no longer a surprise i dont believe it would have been possible to fill the gaps that have popped up since January whilst still adding real high quality up top.

Thats not be lacking ambition btw, do I want us to push for the playoffs? Absolutely I do. Just dont think it was on the cards this season based on the bodies we have consistently been missing.

Yes that's all well and its nice for you to share your opinion is but like everybody else, that's all it is, an opinion. You, like everybody else have no idea where we would have finished had we gone for it (like Lincoln). None of us will ever know because we can't, because we didn't go for it. What we do know is that this was the table on January 1st when we were 4 points better off than Lincoln AND had a game in hand. That's NOT an opinion. It couldn't be done (our supporters said).

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« Reply #376 on: April 02, 2024, 14:02:24 pm »

Yes that's all well and its nice for you to share your opinion is but like everybody else, that's all it is, an opinion. You, like everybody else have no idea where we would have finished had we gone for it (like Lincoln). None of us will ever know because we can't, because we didn't go for it. What we do know is that this was the table on January 1st when we were 4 points better off than Lincoln AND had a game in hand. That's NOT an opinion. It couldn't be done (our supporters said).
Havent seen anyone say it couldnt be done. I have seen people (myself included) saying we didnt think it was worth the risk. Happy to be proven wrong.
What are your thoughts on Oxford and Blackpool who did more business than Lincoln but are now both now outside of the playoffs?
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« Reply #377 on: April 02, 2024, 14:13:12 pm »

Home draws against Wigan, Bolton and Charlton, defeats to Shrewsbury and Blackpool...last minute Orient defeat. Having our top scorer injured etc.

It's a tenuous link to suggest a couple of players would have made all the difference but true that we will never know. There again, if my Grandmother had wheels she'd be a bicycle....

I'd say we've done pretty well with the hand we've been dealt and with a fully fit and firing Hylton, plus the likes of Simpson turning up more often we may have had a shot.
No reason at all why next season needs to be doom and gloom when we have proven that we are a match for anyone in this league.

I think it has been pretty much proven that our fans are generally doom mongers, with very few predicting that we were going to finish as high as we ultimately will.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #378 on: April 02, 2024, 14:24:55 pm »

Home draws against Wigan, Bolton and Charlton, defeats to Shrewsbury and Blackpool...last minute Orient defeat. Having our top scorer injured etc.

It's a tenuous link to suggest a couple of players would have made all the difference but true that we will never know. There again, if my Grandmother had wheels she'd be a bicycle....

I'd say we've done pretty well with the hand we've been dealt and with a fully fit and firing Hylton, plus the likes of Simpson turning up more often we may have had a shot.
No reason at all why next season needs to be doom and gloom when we have proven that we are a match for anyone in this league.

I think it has been pretty much proven that our fans are generally doom mongers, with very few predicting that we were going to finish as high as we ultimately will.

And therein lies the rub. Everybody is happy to say they were wrong, they didn't think we could finish this high but yet they all (almost) to  a man say with real conviction that we couldn't have finished any higher. Talk about contradictory.

Your grandmother had wheels argument can just as equally be applied the other way. One player, a top notch goalkeeper would have made a massive difference.
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« Reply #379 on: April 02, 2024, 14:26:06 pm »

I’ll pose a question.

If we’d gone for Taylor from Luton at the same time that Lincoln had, and been successful. Would an in form poacher have won us some of those close games you mention?

My gut says yes, and I’d also imagine he’d have chosen us due to location. So possibly just 1 extra player could have made all the difference.
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