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Average crowds relative to population

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Knockingonabit
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« on: May 28, 2024, 08:54:52 am »

The way a recent discussion was going I was anticipating Beds to pop up with something about catchment areas which got me wondering...

Taking The Championship and Leagues 1 & 2, but eliminating clubs located in cities with more than one team, I took the average crowds for the season and calculated them as a percentage of the city or towns population.

Championship average was 12.7%, League 1 was  7.1% and slightly higher thanks to the Wrexham effect for League 2 at 7.2%.

Bottom of the pile come Cheltenham, MK, Harrogate, Newport and Colchester at all under 4%, but at absolute rock bottom with a population of 229,815 and an average crowd of 6,842, the only club at marginally under 3% is Northampton Town!

We have the poorest crowds relative to the towns population in the whole of the football league. (FACT Grin)
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Terryfenwickatemyhamster
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2024, 09:11:36 am »

The way a recent discussion was going I was anticipating Beds to pop up with something about catchment areas which got me wondering...

Taking The Championship and Leagues 1 & 2, but eliminating clubs located in cities with more than one team, I took the average crowds for the season and calculated them as a percentage of the city or towns population.

Championship average was 12.7%, League 1 was  7.1% and slightly higher thanks to the Wrexham effect for League 2 at 7.2%.

Bottom of the pile come Cheltenham, MK, Harrogate, Newport and Colchester at all under 4%, but at absolute rock bottom with a population of 229,815 and an average crowd of 6,842, the only club at marginally under 3% is Northampton Town!

We have the poorest crowds relative to the towns population in the whole of the football league. (FACT Grin)

It might be worse. I'm sure Northampton is bigger that that 😊 And MK is bigger than us I think. But in no way is it an accurate guide to anticipated attendances. Location, demographic and many more factors determine outcomes. You would have to firmly include us into the two teams towns. Unless you are bizarrely ruling out the Saints. Unfortunately. So does the size of the ground. A bigger ground would definitively attract more support. So whilst its not the preserve of Beds, we all know that. We're just not repeating it ad infinitum.
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2024, 09:28:09 am »

A bigger ground would definitively attract more support. So whilst its not the preserve of Beds, we all know that. We're just not repeating it ad infinitum.
Just quoting you TFAH but not directed at you necessarily.

Milton Keynes Capacity 2007 - 2014 - 22,0000
Milton Keynes Attendance  2007 - 2014 - 9,327

Milton Keynes Capacity 2015 - Current - 30,000
Milton Keynes Attendance 2015 - Current - 9,234

So more seats = less fans!

They also have scope / space to extend to 45,000.
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« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2024, 09:31:11 am »

Having said all that, we need to do more to get more of the population in to the stadium, and the answer to that (IMO) is going to be on the Transfer Rumours thread.
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2024, 09:47:31 am »

Maybe itís because Northampton is the centre of the fun time universe and there is so much to do in Teyn that people cannot find the time for football as well?
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I think someone should just take this city of Peterborough and just... just flush it down the f***in' toilet

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Welly Cobb
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2024, 09:59:29 am »

Northamptons population as of the last census is 243,511, and Milton Keynes is now 287,100. I don't know how that affects the figures. And cities do make it complicated (is Dagenham smaller or bigger than us? What affect does having Westham and Millwall up the road do to that).

The issue is though, it is physically beyond our limitation to not be the worst supported town in the league though. To be next to the second worst supported teams we'd need average attendances of 9,600... to be an average supported team we'd need attendances of 17,000. When your stadium holds 7,000, thats a little hard to do.

Do I think that increasing our capacity to 10k would give us 9.5k crowds? Doesnt look like it based on how late it takes us to get to sell out, on the games we have we might scrape another 500-1000 on buy on the day, maybe.

The obvious elephant in the room, is how many of those teams in League one have not been above the 3rd step in the pyramid in 60 years? You have to be 70 years old or older to be someone who remembers anything other than League 1 or League 2 football, how many under 60s in Northampton are going to be attracted to that?

I bet the average age of a cobbler supporter skews way older than the norm as well.

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DavCobb
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2024, 10:05:51 am »

Just quoting you TFAH but not directed at you necessarily.

Milton Keynes Capacity 2007 - 2014 - 22,0000
Milton Keynes Attendance  2007 - 2014 - 9,327

Milton Keynes Capacity 2015 - Current - 30,000
Milton Keynes Attendance 2015 - Current - 9,234

So more seats = less fans!

They also have scope / space to extend to 45,000.

Milton Keynes averaged 14 more fans per game than us in the season just finished. I'd hazard a guess that their average number of away fans surpassed our numbers, i.e. we had more home fans. I think their attendances dropped something like 25% last season.

In summary, I don't think they'll ever need a 30,000 capacity stadium, unless they want LOTS of legroom.  Tongue
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Knockingonabit
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2024, 11:07:21 am »

I agree with TFAH individual factors are at play in every instance and that it is not in itself a guide to attendances but it does give some perspective.
Population figures vary depending on what list you happen to alight on and figures are often shown for administrative areas but I'm not sure about those figures for Milton Keynes Welly, would be interested to know where they came from.
MK has always had a tendency to exaggerate and I would guess they include Olney, Woburn etc. as the admin area is now massive. Certainly using those figures it would relegate them to bottom spot!
There are some trends that emerge, for instance a fair few northern clubs whose glory days are well past retain above average support such as Barnsley, Preston and Huddersfield.
Anyway, I would have thought that NTFC would represent a far better investment than Wrexham...
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Welly Cobb
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2024, 11:11:53 am »

Code:
         Pop      Avg Att  % of Town a Stadium  % used b
Barnsley          71,422 12,730 17.82% 94.4% 23,287 54.67% 80%
Blackpool 141,000 10,667 7.57% 89.0% 16,616 64.20% 72%
Bolton W          298,903 23,193 7.76% 94.0% 28,723 80.75% 76%
Burton Albion 76,270 3,419 4.48% 89.0% 6,912 49.46% 8%
Cambridge UTD 181,137 6,679 3.69% 64.8% 8,127 82.18% 12%
Crawley Town 119,509 4,829 4.04% 0.0% 5,996 80.54% 0%
Exeter City 134,939 6,800 5.04% 0.0% 8,720 77.98% 0%
Huddersfield City 141,692 19,418 13.70% 94.4% 24,121 80.50% 64%
Lincoln City 189,000 8,424 4.46% 64.8% 10,669 78.96% 4%
Mansfield Town 110,500 7,426 6.72% 71.3% 9,186 80.84% 4%
Northampton Town 249,093 6,842 2.75% 18.4% 7,798 87.74% 0%
Peterborough 215,673 9,186 4.26% 89.0% 13,511 67.99% 32%
Reading         337,108 13,159 3.90% 94.0% 24,161 54.46% 96%
Rotherham UTd 268,354 10,674 3.98% 94.0% 12,021 88.79% 44%
Shrewsbury 76,782 6,361 8.28% 57.8% 9,875 64.42% 0%
Stevenage 89,737 4,835 5.39% 0.0% 7,800 61.99% 0%
Stockport County 137,130 9,331 6.80% 71.3% 10,852 85.98% 24%
Wigan         107,732 10,442 9.69% 94.4% 25,138 41.54% 80%
Wrexham          44,785 11,210 25.03% 71.3% 12,600 88.97% 16%
Wycombe W 75,814 4,980 6.57% 89.0% 10,137 49.13% 24%
Bristol Rovers* 472,500 8,190 1.73% 64.8% 9,832 83.30% 8%
Charlton Ath* 14,385 13,481 93.72% 89.0% 27,111 49.73% 72%
Leyton Orient* 14,184 8,172 57.61% 57.8% 9,271 88.15% 0%
Birmingham City* 1,157,603 21,180 1.83% 94.4% 29,409 72.02% 100%

Average 1 Team Town 7.60% 67.0% Average All team 71.05%
Average All          12.78% 68.6% Average All 71.43%
Average 1 Team ex Wrexham  6.06%

*teams from places where there are more than one local team

a - % of people in town would would have seen 2nd Tier or above football
b- % of years in 2nd year or above in last 25
« Last Edit: May 28, 2024, 11:20:54 am by Welly Cobb » Report Spam   Logged
Welly Cobb
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2024, 11:17:17 am »

I agree with TFAH individual factors are at play in every instance and that it is not in itself a guide to attendances but it does give some perspective.
Population figures vary depending on what list you happen to alight on and figures are often shown for administrative areas but I'm not sure about those figures for Milton Keynes Welly, would be interested to know where they came from.
MK has always had a tendency to exaggerate and I would guess they include Olney, Woburn etc. as the admin area is now massive. Certainly using those figures it would relegate them to bottom spot!
There are some trends that emerge, for instance a fair few northern clubs whose glory days are well past retain above average support such as Barnsley, Preston and Huddersfield.
Anyway, I would have thought that NTFC would represent a far better investment than Wrexham...
I just googled it, it's from the 2021 census.

Interestingly, there is obviously a correlation between % of people who would be alive to see Championship football, and % of town turning up, but there are multiple instances where it isn't the answer - for instance, Crawley, Exeter, Stevenage have never seen Championship football, but are getting nearer 5% of their town turn out, against our 2.75%. We're at less than half the mean for League 1 (excluding Wrexham and teams from towns with more than one local team).

However, we have both the smallest percentage of the town turning up (2.75%) apart from Birmingham (which is complicated because of how huge it is and have another team in Aston Villa in there), and less than one in five Northamptonians would have been alive to see Championship football (based on mean demographics of the UK, I'm not going to work out age demographics per town) compared to the next second lowest which would be just slightly more than 1 in 2 for Leyton Orient. A massive gap in population's experience of tier 2 and above football. ]

The second lowest % of the town turning up is Camrbidge, and they are 4th or 5th lowest for the amount of people who would have been alive for tier 2 football of above.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2024, 11:23:03 am by Welly Cobb » Report Spam   Logged
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2024, 12:14:58 pm »

We donít get more fans because 1400 of our 7800 capacity is handed over to the opposition leaving us 6400 for home fans, we have circa 4000 season ticket holders, that leaves 2000 empty seats mostly in the half finished east stand or single seats in the north or west.
Even then our average attendance is 6900, with the west and north selling out for most games.
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2024, 12:24:40 pm »

I don't think we can rule out County Cricket and most certainly the Saints.

I've lost count of the amount of my mates that used to stand on the Hotel End with me, but now go down the road. Out of the group of 8 of us that used to go home and away, three of them are now season ticket holders at the Saints. That's without trying to count how many from the wider group that I knew around me in the old days. Cricket probably has less of an impact, due to it being a summer sport. But there is plenty who make the choice in favour of it. We are definitely a two team town. Plus an influence thrown in from Cricket. In addition to that, being equidistant from Birmingham and London doesn't help. Silverstone, Rockingham, Santa pod, and Brafield.. Aren.t we spoilt 😁

 
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Another Pedj
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2024, 12:36:29 pm »

Code:
         Pop      Avg Att  % of Town a Stadium  % used b
Barnsley          71,422 12,730 17.82% 94.4% 23,287 54.67% 80%
Blackpool 141,000 10,667 7.57% 89.0% 16,616 64.20% 72%
Bolton W          298,903 23,193 7.76% 94.0% 28,723 80.75% 76%
Burton Albion 76,270 3,419 4.48% 89.0% 6,912 49.46% 8%
Cambridge UTD 181,137 6,679 3.69% 64.8% 8,127 82.18% 12%
Crawley Town 119,509 4,829 4.04% 0.0% 5,996 80.54% 0%
Exeter City 134,939 6,800 5.04% 0.0% 8,720 77.98% 0%
Huddersfield City 141,692 19,418 13.70% 94.4% 24,121 80.50% 64%
Lincoln City 189,000 8,424 4.46% 64.8% 10,669 78.96% 4%
Mansfield Town 110,500 7,426 6.72% 71.3% 9,186 80.84% 4%
Northampton Town 249,093 6,842 2.75% 18.4% 7,798 87.74% 0%
Peterborough 215,673 9,186 4.26% 89.0% 13,511 67.99% 32%
Reading         337,108 13,159 3.90% 94.0% 24,161 54.46% 96%
Rotherham UTd 268,354 10,674 3.98% 94.0% 12,021 88.79% 44%
Shrewsbury 76,782 6,361 8.28% 57.8% 9,875 64.42% 0%
Stevenage 89,737 4,835 5.39% 0.0% 7,800 61.99% 0%
Stockport County 137,130 9,331 6.80% 71.3% 10,852 85.98% 24%
Wigan         107,732 10,442 9.69% 94.4% 25,138 41.54% 80%
Wrexham          44,785 11,210 25.03% 71.3% 12,600 88.97% 16%
Wycombe W 75,814 4,980 6.57% 89.0% 10,137 49.13% 24%
Bristol Rovers* 472,500 8,190 1.73% 64.8% 9,832 83.30% 8%
Charlton Ath* 14,385 13,481 93.72% 89.0% 27,111 49.73% 72%
Leyton Orient* 14,184 8,172 57.61% 57.8% 9,271 88.15% 0%
Birmingham City* 1,157,603 21,180 1.83% 94.4% 29,409 72.02% 100%

Average 1 Team Town 7.60% 67.0% Average All team 71.05%
Average All          12.78% 68.6% Average All 71.43%
Average 1 Team ex Wrexham  6.06%

*teams from places where there are more than one local team

a - % of people in town would would have seen 2nd Tier or above football
b- % of years in 2nd year or above in last 25

The funny one there is Stockport. We were the 2nd largest town in England to "Stockport"
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2024, 13:43:22 pm »

The way a recent discussion was going I was anticipating Beds to pop up with something about catchment areas which got me wondering...

Taking The Championship and Leagues 1 & 2, but eliminating clubs located in cities with more than one team, I took the average crowds for the season and calculated them as a percentage of the city or towns population.

Championship average was 12.7%, League 1 was  7.1% and slightly higher thanks to the Wrexham effect for League 2 at 7.2%.

Bottom of the pile come Cheltenham, MK, Harrogate, Newport and Colchester at all under 4%, but at absolute rock bottom with a population of 229,815 and an average crowd of 6,842, the only club at marginally under 3% is Northampton Town!

We have the poorest crowds relative to the towns population in the whole of the football league. (FACT Grin)

I'm guessing it rained a lot around your way over the bank holiday weekend.
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Knockingonabit
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« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2024, 13:59:36 pm »

Boredom, Bingers, pure unadulterated boredom plus I just love an Excel spread sheet.

Sad I know but to continue, it seems that MK's typical underhanded jump from 197,354 to 264,349 is due to the inclusion of Bletchley! If only they did "I Hate MK" T shirts.
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2024, 22:23:50 pm »

The one thing that is going to help a jump in crowds is promotion to the Championship.

You can harp on about 20,000 capacity, fan zones, lorry parks all you want.

If the product on the pitch is good enough, people will come. Amount of times Iíve had people sat near me who clearly rarely come and are hammering everything about the performance.
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« Reply #16 on: May 29, 2024, 11:32:38 am »

The one thing that is going to help a jump in crowds is promotion to the Championship.

You can harp on about 20,000 capacity, fan zones, lorry parks all you want.

If the product on the pitch is good enough, people will come. Amount of times Iíve had people sat near me who clearly rarely come and are hammering everything about the performance.

Not unless we increase the capacity to Championship level; 12-15000 for starters. We're already getting somewhere near capacity so promotion to the Championship ain't going to make a lot of difference to attendances.
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« Reply #17 on: May 29, 2024, 17:35:03 pm »

Looks like we have huge potential
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« Reply #18 on: May 29, 2024, 18:22:26 pm »

If we had a ground that held 20,000 our average attendance would easily jump to 8-9k overnight.

Simply because you'd benefit from a handful of big attendances that would swell it. Brum would bring 7-8000 easily next season for starters. So there's a crowd of circa 15-16000. Which would increase our average by about 400-500 straight away.

That's why we are so down the list. We have such a small ground so are never able to maximise the opportunities that a big match brings. However, its not all bad news. With a lovely big ground like MK have, comes much higher maintenance costs. Think of it like a house. If you have a 7 bedroom house, that's a lot more windows that need replacing every so often, a lot more rooms to dec out and a lot more cleaning.

I've no idea where the sweet spot would be for us, but I reckon somewhere around 10-12000 so we've got a realistic chance to grow our fanbase.

I hope that once this East Stand has been sorted, serious discussions can start to see how expansion could be funded. Whether that's through a bond scheme, sponsorship, whatever. I don't expect owners to pay for it out of their own pockets, there is no ROI attached to it unless you think 20-30 years. But realistically the only way you'd fill the new capacity would be to invest the extra revenue generated in new players. So you go round and round in circles.

But we are a football club, and we do need to start to look at ways of how we can increase our crowds and become a 'bigger club' because otherwise, what's the point?!
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« Reply #19 on: May 29, 2024, 21:33:00 pm »

Historically the population of the town that supported the team when we flirted with the big time was pretty much local and most of todays supporters were taken to their first games by their dads to the cobblers added to which there was pretty much fúck all else to do on a Saturday afternoon. However the modern population is a vast number of incomers who come from darn sarf or brummigem. The children of which continue to support the teams of their fathers. I have friends who would never think of going to a cobblers game(apart from my Birmingham supporting friends who will have no choice next season), they have been raised on a diet of Arsenal, Spurs, West Ham and for the poor unfortunates Chelsea. Added to this the plethora of games available on Sky etc. is it any wonder why the crowds are so low? A bigger ground is not the solution. Do we sell out the home seats every game? Do we fúck. It is not just about the product on the pitch it is about a feeling of belonging, something that was lost in the 70s and 80s as the "town" expanded.
I truly believe that there is a future for the club and room to grow, but it must be managed in such a way that it is sustainable. Yes we have seen the rapture of play off wins and the despondency of failure and the crowds it brings, but this is fleeting. A serious marketing effort is called for to bring the local youngsters to the ground, not just for main games, but all games. The women's team should be playing all their games at Sixfields and freebies thrown at any organisation that can promote this. Reserves games free to enter. Game day tours of the ground followed by nosh and bevvies for paying guests and sponsors. Yes lets extend the capacity, but make sure we can use it to cover the costs.
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