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Welcome Kevin Nolan

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Author Topic: Welcome Kevin Nolan  (Read 20648 times)
Manwork04
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« Reply #420 on: February 02, 2025, 10:30:53 am »

That's more like it Big Kev, win rate up to 28.57% which is just about enough to avoid relegation as it equates to 13 wins (39 points) so together with about 10 draws would be enough.
I see maths is another string to your bow  Grin Grin
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WasRambo
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« Reply #421 on: February 03, 2025, 11:56:15 am »

Not really as we only have 17 games left!

On the stated scenario we need 6 wins and 1 draw, so the required win rate is 37.5%. Not sure where Nolan would place in Marvos table to achieve that
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west stand oap
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« Reply #422 on: February 03, 2025, 12:02:09 pm »

Or 5 wins and 4 draws making 29.41% win ratio. Alternatively 4 wins and 7 draws when only 23.53% would be required.
However, the instance I quoted was the requirement over a full season.
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west stand oap
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« Reply #423 on: February 03, 2025, 12:03:30 pm »

Also 6 wins from the remaining 17 games is 35.29% and not 37.5% as you state.
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WasRambo
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« Reply #424 on: February 03, 2025, 12:27:31 pm »

Also 6 wins from the remaining 17 games is 35.29% and not 37.5% as you state.

Not if you take a game out for the draw you said was need.

Jeez, I'm only messing bud, no need to get salty. You quoted the numbers, I just did the math
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« Reply #425 on: February 03, 2025, 12:30:14 pm »

Wonder if last weekends tactical change will be our longer term strategy for the rest of the season?
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west stand oap
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« Reply #426 on: February 03, 2025, 12:49:59 pm »

Yes Was you did do the maths and I am not getting salty. What you seem to fail to understand is that when working out a win percentage from remaining games you use the total of those remaining games and don't subtract the number of drawn games. If you are subtracting the number of drawn games why not subtract the number of games we would lose then you would need to win 100% of the remaining games.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #427 on: February 03, 2025, 13:10:53 pm »

Not really as we only have 17 games left!

On the stated scenario we need 6 wins and 1 draw, so the required win rate is 37.5%. Not sure where Nolan would place in Marvos table to achieve that

I did add win ratio to the managers stats page, even though I think success rate is a far more valuable measure. Anyway, 37.5% would put him level with Jon Brady. How's that for a appropriate coincidence?
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Managers like Bowen and Wilder* are rare to come by! Whether we like it or not Jon Brady is the only recent Manager who can possibly follow in their* footstops!

We should stick with him, as at the moment he is our only hope of survival as a EFL Club!
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« Reply #428 on: February 03, 2025, 13:57:39 pm »

Yes Was you did do the maths and I am not getting salty. What you seem to fail to understand is that when working out a win percentage from remaining games you use the total of those remaining games and don't subtract the number of drawn games. If you are subtracting the number of drawn games why not subtract the number of games we would lose then you would need to win 100% of the remaining games.

I get your point but you specifically stated 13 wins and 10 draws which means 6 wins and 1 draw from 17 games which in turn means 6 wins from 16 games which is... 37.5%.

I can concede 1.1% if it really bothers you. Either way, both figures are a bit above the 28% or whatever you originally quoted.

Whatever the number you want to settle on, we need 6 or 7 wins to be sure, IMHO. Brizzle, Exeter, Blackpool, Cambridge, Shrewsbury and Crawley all feel like must wins

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west stand oap
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« Reply #429 on: February 03, 2025, 14:34:26 pm »

Was, my original post that 13 wins for the season (28.57%) together with 10 draws giving 49 points for the season would usually be enough most recent seasons to avoid relegation. But if I took out the 10 draws then 13 wins from the remaining 36 games would give almost 36% win rate to avoid relegation but 36% win rate with a number of draws would see a comfortable mid table finish.
To reach 49 this season 5 wins will be enough with 4 draws allowing us to lose 8 (almost half) of our remaining 17 games.
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« Reply #430 on: February 03, 2025, 15:14:37 pm »

Was, my original post that 13 wins for the season (28.57%) together with 10 draws giving 49 points for the season would usually be enough most recent seasons to avoid relegation. But if I took out the 10 draws then 13 wins from the remaining 36 games would give almost 36% win rate to avoid relegation but 36% win rate with a number of draws would see a comfortable mid table finish.
To reach 49 this season 5 wins will be enough with 4 draws allowing us to lose 8 (almost half) of our remaining 17 games.
I bet your fun at parties 😉
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« Reply #431 on: February 03, 2025, 19:51:29 pm »

I bet your fun at parties 😉

You'll always find him in the kitchen....
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west stand oap
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« Reply #432 on: February 03, 2025, 19:53:58 pm »

I only go to maths parties but on the condition calculators are not allowed.
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« Reply #433 on: February 03, 2025, 20:19:52 pm »

I only go to maths parties but on the condition calculators are not allowed.
Grin
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« Reply #434 on: February 05, 2025, 07:49:58 am »

Our Kev is due on Talk Sport soon. Chatting about the Newcastle v Arsenal  game. Wonder if we'll get a mention.
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When it comes to advice. I’m the only one to Trust
TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #435 on: February 07, 2025, 20:43:27 pm »

I think we might have got ourselves a good one.
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Managers like Bowen and Wilder* are rare to come by! Whether we like it or not Jon Brady is the only recent Manager who can possibly follow in their* footstops!

We should stick with him, as at the moment he is our only hope of survival as a EFL Club!
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« Reply #436 on: February 07, 2025, 20:45:51 pm »

Still early days yet
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #437 on: February 07, 2025, 21:05:54 pm »

3 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats.

I reckon even West Stand oap will be able to work out the win ratio of that.  Wink Grin Grin Grin
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Managers like Bowen and Wilder* are rare to come by! Whether we like it or not Jon Brady is the only recent Manager who can possibly follow in their* footstops!

We should stick with him, as at the moment he is our only hope of survival as a EFL Club!
west stand oap
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« Reply #438 on: February 08, 2025, 07:41:44 am »

Finally got there, KN now has a win ratio of 33.333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 ad infinitum% and we are now in mid table territory with a chance of further improvement with 3 home games to follow. Anybody feeling confident enough to go down the bookies and put a bet on us being unbeaten in February or winning all of our games?

A point a game from our remaining 16 games should be enough to ensure our safety but with 10 home games and only 6 away we have a good chance of moving further up the table. Also a good chance of more away wins with our remaining games being against Cambridge, Crawley, Peterborough, Exeter, Charlton and Leyton Orient.
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #439 on: February 08, 2025, 07:52:13 am »

Finally got there, KN now has a win ratio of 33.333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333333 ad infinitum% and we are now in mid table territory with a chance of further improvement with 3 home games to follow. Anybody feeling confident enough to go down the bookies and put a bet on us being unbeaten in February or winning all of our games?

A point a game from our remaining 16 games should be enough to ensure our safety but with 10 home games and only 6 away we have a good chance of moving further up the table. Also a good chance of more away wins with our remaining games being against Cambridge, Crawley, Peterborough, Exeter, Charlton and Leyton Orient.

This.
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Managers like Bowen and Wilder* are rare to come by! Whether we like it or not Jon Brady is the only recent Manager who can possibly follow in their* footstops!

We should stick with him, as at the moment he is our only hope of survival as a EFL Club!
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