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Relegation Watch

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Author Topic: Relegation Watch  (Read 18613 times)
WasRambo
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« Reply #320 on: March 10, 2025, 21:47:04 pm »

Tbh, there's three key "areas" in this division.

Auto promotion, playoffs and relegation. If you're not in any of those when all is said and done then it doesn't really matter if you're 8th or 20th.

Progress this year would be flirting with the playoffs as clearly auto promotion is currently well beyond us and probably always will be, barring a rich buyer or a Wilderesque magic melting pot of talent.

Survival was always the main goal this year given recent historical flirtations with this division. I'd like to see us cement our place in this division, even if that entails the next five seasons of mid tableness. If we can do that, I'm sure we'll probably flirt with both relegation and the play offs along the way. We'll probably have a cup run somewhere too, fuknose we're due one.

The key is getting through this year and seeing what KN can assemble and mould in his image. If we stay up, close season will arguably be the most exciting one for a few years....
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Winslow Lee
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« Reply #321 on: March 11, 2025, 07:42:18 am »

I think the problem is people look a football club too much like a business when they talk about stability and progression. Shrewsbury have been in league 1 for 10 years, enough by some of the metrics I’ve been hearing to call them established. Fat lot pf good it’s done them as they are going down. There’s other clubs like Luton who seem to defy logic and are flying up and down the leagues.

I could understand talk of progression more if you start the following season with all the major assets of the previous one, but you rarely do. We lost Leonard, Bowie, Sherring, McWilliams, Appere. Hoskins had massively tailed off towards the end of the season and Sowerby was pretty much done through injuries.it feels much more like starting again than building on foundations.

Holistically looking at seasons and comparing one to the next can be misleading. If Man U finish 10th next season that might be progression but so what? it’s still massively underachieving and they can and should be finishing much higher.
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Manwork04
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« Reply #322 on: March 11, 2025, 08:32:21 am »

I think the problem is people look a football club too much like a business when they talk about stability and progression. Shrewsbury have been in league 1 for 10 years, enough by some of the metrics I’ve been hearing to call them established. Fat lot pf good it’s done them as they are going down. There’s other clubs like Luton who seem to defy logic and are flying up and down the leagues.

I could understand talk of progression more if you start the following season with all the major assets of the previous one, but you rarely do. We lost Leonard, Bowie, Sherring, McWilliams, Appere. Hoskins had massively tailed off towards the end of the season and Sowerby was pretty much done through injuries.it feels much more like starting again than building on foundations.

Holistically looking at seasons and comparing one to the next can be misleading. If Man U finish 10th next season that might be progression but so what? it’s still massively underachieving and they can and should be finishing much higher.
That’s because we don’t have a sustainable business model, the East Stand will help, but not being sustainable means you have to rely on the loans market and therefore the turnover every season.
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« Reply #323 on: March 11, 2025, 10:46:17 am »

Is one season ever comparable to another though?



No.Never

Especially when you are comparing replacements for injuries. And more importantly, a completely different manager.
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DrillingCobbler
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« Reply #324 on: March 11, 2025, 12:19:26 pm »

That’s because we don’t have a sustainable business model, the East Stand will help, but not being sustainable means you have to rely on the loans market and therefore the turnover every season.

Id argue that only a handful of clubs (max) have been 'sustainable' over a lengthy period of time.

A few on here often put forward Exeter's case but if/when they go through a spell of not cashing in big time on home grown players, they will have to cut their budget and probably end up being back in league2 or potentially lower than that. It will happen at some point...

As soon as you increase your capacity/hospitality offerings/general infrastructure your set cost base goes up proportionately but also your variable cost base (players wages in the main) goes up even more in order to make sure you fill the extra seats/boxes. Look at the debt levels of many premier league clubs.

The way football is set up in this country at the moment will ensure that sustainability is right down the list of priorities because rich owners will just chuck more and more £ at their play things in order to be successful.

The Financial fair play league is an absolute load of b0llox because its now shafted any promoted teams (Into the prem) who simply cannot bring in the players needed to be competitive.

I've said since the start of the KT/DB tenure that our best hope is that they improve Sixfield's, write the debt off and sell us for a peynd to someone/consortium with far deeper pockets to take us to the next level. They leave with a modest profit (probably) and a legacy that overall would be deemed as positive. The whole land issue has held us back for years, take that all out of the equation and future owners will only be here for the football club itself.

We are playing at the upper reaches of our natural level (basing it on the last 50 plus years of our history) and our debts/losses are miniscule compared to most other football clubs within the 4 top divisions.
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Winslow Lee
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« Reply #325 on: March 11, 2025, 13:00:26 pm »

Id argue that only a handful of clubs (max) have been 'sustainable' over a lengthy period of time.

A few on here often put forward Exeter's case but if/when they go through a spell of not cashing in big time on home grown players, they will have to cut their budget and probably end up being back in league2 or potentially lower than that. It will happen at some point...

As soon as you increase your capacity/hospitality offerings/general infrastructure your set cost base goes up proportionately but also your variable cost base (players wages in the main) goes up even more in order to make sure you fill the extra seats/boxes. Look at the debt levels of many premier league clubs.

The way football is set up in this country at the moment will ensure that sustainability is right down the list of priorities because rich owners will just chuck more and more £ at their play things in order to be successful.

The Financial fair play league is an absolute load of b0llox because its now shafted any promoted teams (Into the prem) who simply cannot bring in the players needed to be competitive.

I've said since the start of the KT/DB tenure that our best hope is that they improve Sixfield's, write the debt off and sell us for a peynd to someone/consortium with far deeper pockets to take us to the next level. They leave with a modest profit (probably) and a legacy that overall would be deemed as positive. The whole land issue has held us back for years, take that all out of the equation and future owners will only be here for the football club itself.

We are playing at the upper reaches of our natural level (basing it on the last 50 plus years of our history) and our debts/losses are miniscule compared to most other football clubs within the 4 top divisions.

Spot on.

EVERY club could has the ability to be sustainable and it’s SIMPLE, don’t spend more on your costs than the money you bring in, though you will probably be hounded out of the club by its fans!. Personally I think it’s a shame that owners are willing to risk the existence of a club just to increase the chance of success, though fans will phrase running beyond your means differently! ‘Investing in the club’ and will be shocked when things suddenly go pear shaped.
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DavCobb
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« Reply #326 on: March 11, 2025, 13:12:18 pm »


I've said since the start of the KT/DB tenure that our best hope is that they improve Sixfield's, write the debt off and sell us for a peynd to someone/consortium with far deeper pockets to take us to the next level. They leave with a modest profit (probably) and a legacy that overall would be deemed as positive. The whole land issue has held us back for years, take that all out of the equation and future owners will only be here for the football club itself.

We are playing at the upper reaches of our natural level (basing it on the last 50 plus years of our history) and our debts/losses are miniscule compared to most other football clubs within the 4 top divisions.

The more time goes on, the more I think some have been harsh on KT and co. Assuming we stay up this season, we will at least match the achievements of the club in my lifetime.
Maybe it is an age thing but I don't have the desperate yearning for anyone to take us to 'the next level', whatever that means.
I don't see the ground being able to sustain anything above L1, so unless they have REALLY deep pockets it'll make little difference. What you do see, is that clubs with more money often pay more for mediocrity.  
Prices go up, ticket availability goes down and we'll see the likes of Oxford and Portsmouth, instead of the likes of....Oxford and Portsmouth, before another likely relegation.

They have kept our debt down (in relative terms) and finally finished that stand. If they wanna hang around that's fine by me. It wasn't long before 'you know what' that the majority would have said Dozy was doing an OK job too. If they do it would be good to see some future plans on extending the ends.

Money doesn't guarantee success but it guarantee's larger debt. I guess people are jealous when they see the likes of Wrexham, so there must be something in it....I mean, it is a lot of fun when we are really, really good and tear a league up.
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Terryfenwickatemyhamster
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« Reply #327 on: March 11, 2025, 14:18:19 pm »

The more time goes on, the more I think some have been harsh on KT and co.
There are no guarantees. They could sell us down the swanny. But based on the years they have been here, it has been one of the more settled periods we have undergone during my considerable time supporting the club. The trouble is, in all walks of life there is a tendency for some to believe they could do better no matter what. For some, that has become vindictive. And almost a fulltime job.
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« Reply #328 on: March 11, 2025, 19:55:26 pm »

Bristol Rovers go 1-0 up at home to Bolton with a 6th minute penalty. They will go above us if they win as will Exeter unless they lose at home to Mansfield.
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Winslow Lee
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« Reply #329 on: March 11, 2025, 19:56:39 pm »

Cambridge and Exeter both winning too!!
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #330 on: March 11, 2025, 20:02:32 pm »

Not the greatest start to the night but plenty of time yet.
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Managers like Bowen and Wilder* are rare to come by! Whether we like it or not Jon Brady is the only recent Manager who can possibly follow in their* footstops!

We should stick with him, as at the moment he is our only hope of survival as a EFL Club!
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« Reply #331 on: March 11, 2025, 20:06:14 pm »

Cambridge now all square
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west stand oap
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« Reply #332 on: March 11, 2025, 20:24:03 pm »

Charlton in front at Crawley.
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Winslow Lee
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« Reply #333 on: March 11, 2025, 20:32:14 pm »

Bristol Rovers level too, things looking better
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Winslow Lee
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« Reply #334 on: March 11, 2025, 20:34:57 pm »

On a side note, looking like at least one of Carlisle and Tranmere will be heading to the conference.
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west stand oap
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« Reply #335 on: March 11, 2025, 21:05:11 pm »

Exeter 2 up against Mansfield. Cambridge losing at Blackpool.
If Mansfield lose they will have 4 points from their last 13 games.
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west stand oap
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« Reply #336 on: March 11, 2025, 21:07:49 pm »

Bristol Rovers back in front 2-1
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« Reply #337 on: March 11, 2025, 21:15:09 pm »

Bolton equalise again.
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« Reply #338 on: March 11, 2025, 21:32:26 pm »

Bristol Rovers back in front 3-2
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TPFKA Marvo
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« Reply #339 on: March 11, 2025, 21:38:48 pm »

Although it's nice to have a buffer, we need to concentrate on the bottom four. Crawley & Cambridge losing make it a good night.
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Managers like Bowen and Wilder* are rare to come by! Whether we like it or not Jon Brady is the only recent Manager who can possibly follow in their* footstops!

We should stick with him, as at the moment he is our only hope of survival as a EFL Club!
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