Interesting analysis here about teams attendances and their relative success.
http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/colchesterunited/fb_news.php?storyid=12953&title=punching_above_our_weightThe Article is written from Colchester United perspective, regarding their constant overacheivement in League 1 (and the expecations that have risen from their supporters because of it.
Interesting bit is this bit below - a table that relates final position within the football league structure with attendances within the football league structure.
As you may imagine after last year, on a table with an attendance-to-success ratio, we are currently not doing very well. In fact, you could argue that our underacheivement is very similar to Leeds United and Sheffield United's current underachievement.
Club Ave. Att. Att. Rank Lg. Pos. Pos v Att PaW Rank
Rochdale 3,537 78 53 25 1
Hartlepool United 2,933 83 60 23 2
Dagenham 2,770 85 65 20 3
Colchester United 4,247 73 54 19 4
Accrington Stanley 1,868 91 73 18 5
Leyton Orient 4,582 69 51 18 5
Sc***horpe United 5,548 60 44 16 7
Millwall 12,439 44 29 15 8
Swansea City 15,507 38 23 15 8
QPR 15,635 36 21 15 8
Blackpool 15,775 34 19 15 8
Wigan Athletic 16,812 31 16 15 8
Yeovil Town 4,291 72 58 14 13
Torquay United 2,631 87 75 12 14
Walsall 3,846 76 64 12 14
Brentford 5,172 67 55 12 14
Burnley 14,931 40 28 12 14
Exeter City 5,393 63 52 11 18
Stevenage 2,899 84 74 10 19
Bury 3,313 80 70 10 19
Oldham 4,392 71 61 10 19
Carlisle United 5,207 66 56 10 19
Bolton 22,870 24 14 10 19
Fulham 25,043 18 8 10 19
Macclesfield Town 1,816 92 83 9 25
Peterborough 6,450 57 48 9 25
Watford 13,152 43 34 9 25
West Brom 24,683 20 11 9 25
Barnsley 11,855 45 37 8 29
Aldershot Town 2,488 89 82 7 30
Brighton 7,352 52 45 7 30
Doncaster Rovers 10,258 48 41 7 30
Bristol City 14,605 41 35 6 33
Reading 17,682 30 25 5 34
Tottenham Hotspur 35,704 10 5 5 34
AFC Bournemouth 7,103 54 50 4 36
Preston North End 11,768 46 42 4 36
Blackburn Rovers 25,000 19 15 4 36
Chelsea 41,435 6 2 4 36
Everton 36,039 9 7 2 40
MK Mongs 8,512 50 49 1 41
Middlesbrough 16,269 33 32 1 41
Stoke City 26,858 14 13 1 41
Man City 45,905 4 3 1 41
Barnet 2,250 90 90 0 45
Rotherham 3,667 77 77 0 45
Tranmere Rovers 5,467 62 62 0 45
Man Utd 75,109 1 1 0 45
Hereford United 2,516 88 89 -1 49
Wycombe 4,495 70 71 -1 49
Crystal Palace 15,351 39 40 -1 49
Portsmouth 15,707 35 36 -1 49
Cardiff 23,194 23 24 -1 49
Aston Villa 37,194 8 9 -1 49
Liverpool 42,820 5 6 -1 49
Morecambe 2,648 86 88 -2 56
Birmingham 25,462 16 18 -2 56
Arsenal 60,025 2 4 -2 56
Crewe 4,119 75 78 -3 59
Sunderland 40,011 7 10 -3 59
Cheltenham Town 2,980 81 85 -4 61
Nottingham Forest 23,275 22 26 -4 61
Burton Albion 2,948 82 87 -5 63
Huddersfield Town 13,733 42 47 -5 63
Ipswich Town 19,615 28 33 -5 63
Hull City 21,169 26 31 -5 63
Norwich City 25,386 17 22 -5 63
Wolves 27,925 12 17 -5 63
Coventry City 16,310 32 38 -6 69
Notts County 6,585 56 63 -7 70
Bristol Rovers 6,253 58 66 -8 71
Leicester City 23,666 21 30 -9 72
West Ham 33,492 11 20 -9 72
Newcastle United 47,718 3 12 -9 72
Gillingham 5,231 65 76 -11 75
Lincoln 3,508 79 91 -12 76
Shrewsbury Town 5,876 59 72 -13 77
Chesterfield 6,972 55 69 -14 78
Leeds 27,299 13 27 -14 78
Northampton Town 4,605 68 84 -16 80Sheff United 20,632 27 43 -16 80
Southend United 5,274 64 81 -17 82
Swindon 8,458 51 68 -17 82
Stockport County 4,163 74 92 -18 84
Port Vale 5,533 61 79 -18 84
Plymouth Argyle 8,613 49 67 -18 84
Charlton Athletic 15,582 37 57 -20 87
Southampton 22,161 25 46 -21 88
Derby 26,023 15 39 -24 89
Oxford 7,277 53 80 -27 90
Sheff Wed 17,821 29 59 -30 91
Bradford City 11,128 47 86 -39 92
This isn't factoring in, of course, that the teams who are punching below their weight are likely to gain supporters if the current plight is reversed, while the teams that are punching above their weight are likely to lose some if the succes dries up.
Incidentally, if we were to punch at our weight we should be the right on the boundaries of League 2 and League 1. We finished 16th in League 2, and we have should potentially be aiming to be at least 16 places higher. So absoultely no reason why NTFC's target should not be Automatic promotion from League 2 next year. We have the resources, so let's hope we stop punching below our weight.