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Redevelopment Closer Than Ever?

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Author Topic: Redevelopment Closer Than Ever?  (Read 1183910 times)
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« Reply #30320 on: November 25, 2021, 12:32:46 pm »

There will always be exceptions, but to suggest that it is perfectly achievable for all clubs to break even or turn a profit over multiple seasons and attain success is proven to be nonsense, sorry.
I'm not suggesting that it's achievable for ALL clubs to break even, BUT, we are a big fish in a small pond and with our fan base we should be a lot better off that most of our League 2 compatriots. I will admit our lack of facilities does hold us back but I question if we use the facilities we do have to our full advantage.
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« Reply #30321 on: November 25, 2021, 12:48:00 pm »

I'm not suggesting that it's achievable for ALL clubs to break even, BUT, we are a big fish in a small pond and with our fan base we should be a lot better off that most of our League 2 compatriots. I will admit our lack of facilities does hold us back but I question if we use the facilities we do have to our full advantage.
The way I look at it is whatever the average is tends to be the benchmark for the trading conditions. The overwhelming majority of clubs in league 1 & 2 lose considerable sums. Morecambe as you point out are one of the better performers but their year on losses over the last 2 years on the published accounts are still around 400k per year. It’s a bit of an issue with me because I fear football will implode eventually in the lower divisions without a financial reset. Chances are if you operate within your means you rule out any sort of sustainable success and that can’t be right.
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« Reply #30322 on: November 25, 2021, 13:02:54 pm »


Can we just get the East Stand completed in whatever form? 
I've lost interest in the rest of it.

Will we be changing our name to Northampton City if the agenda item that we have been 'bumped' for is successful?
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« Reply #30323 on: November 25, 2021, 13:04:38 pm »

Exeter City;

Transfer Fees Received = £4,949,982

Operating Loss (which doesn't include the transfer fees figure above) = £1,415,479

Profit Before Tax = £3,589,174

Year Ended 30th June 2021



Thanks for digging that out. I posted something similar ages ago but couldn't find it the last time someone cited Exeter as a financial success story. I seem to remember they had been in the black for a few years but when you looked at the numbers they were still losing a good chunk of cash each year but it was being offset by dipping into the funds they received  from selling a player for some serious money.

I'm not knocking them, fair play to them, they've clearly done well in the transfer market but you can't base your operating model around selling a really good player every few years.  Yes, of course you can invest in upcoming players and tie them up to long term deals hoping they come good (a la Chesterfield with Tshimanga) and if it pays off everyone pats you on the back and applauds a superb bit of business, but if they do their ACL three games in and never play for you again you look an absolute mug and are financially screwed. There's a massive element of luck involved in that sort of thing,  especially at our sort of level.
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« Reply #30324 on: November 25, 2021, 13:05:40 pm »

Can we just get the East Stand completed in whatever form? 


I think most fans would take your hand off if they were offered that.
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« Reply #30325 on: November 25, 2021, 13:08:29 pm »

The way I look at it is whatever the average is tends to be the benchmark for the trading conditions. The overwhelming majority of clubs in league 1 & 2 lose considerable sums. Morecambe as you point out are one of the better performers but their year on losses over the last 2 years on the published accounts are still around 400k per year. It’s a bit of an issue with me because I fear football will implode eventually in the lower divisions without a financial reset. Chances are if you operate within your means you rule out any sort of sustainable success and that can’t be right.

The financial reset is always more funds from the Premier League (and should be) and given the increased revenues announced in the last week or so (increased television money from abroad) will be so again.

I agree that as a business model for lower league football clubs it must be terrifying (if you've invested your own money) but it's the way it is. County Cricket has an even greater problem (reliant on central funds from the ECB - test match revenues - limited overs and the 5 day game, especially the Ashes !) Who are you supporting ?
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« Reply #30326 on: November 25, 2021, 13:35:29 pm »

The way I look at it is whatever the average is tends to be the benchmark for the trading conditions. The overwhelming majority of clubs in league 1 & 2 lose considerable sums. Morecambe as you point out are one of the better performers but their year on losses over the last 2 years on the published accounts are still around 400k per year. It’s a bit of an issue with me because I fear football will implode eventually in the lower divisions without a financial reset. Chances are if you operate within your means you rule out any sort of sustainable success and that can’t be right.
Shock, horror football clubs run poorly, this isn’t a normal business and you cannot apply a binary logic to it.
I’ll give you an example, most of a clubs capital is tied up in the players, this value depends on form wether or not they are injured etc etc.
It’s just not like a s simple as you make out mate.
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« Reply #30327 on: November 25, 2021, 13:50:22 pm »

Ooooooh no. Don’t forget that KT and DB had to fight off a plethora of seriously minted contenders to get into the hot seat last time.
Now why would they have done that?
You’ve been corrected on a number of occasions with regards to other bidders.
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« Reply #30328 on: November 25, 2021, 13:55:26 pm »

In the case of Exeter, that have had an unbelievable run of selling players for big money. I am guessing, easily the most profitable out of all 'small clubs around our size'?

They have though, failed over time to increase their attendances - https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/exeter-city/besucherzahlenentwicklung/verein/6699

They have also been stuck in league2 for several years, whilst we have been promoted a couple of times (albeit gone back down again!)

They are (in my view) a well run financially, club. And are sustainable at this level. I think if they got promoted to league1 and were not able to flog a player for big money, they would probably come back down rather quickly, losing £ as they do.


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« Reply #30329 on: November 25, 2021, 14:12:19 pm »

In the case of Exeter, that have had an unbelievable run of selling players for big money. I am guessing, easily the most profitable out of all 'small clubs around our size'?

They have though, failed over time to increase their attendances - https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/exeter-city/besucherzahlenentwicklung/verein/6699

They have also been stuck in league2 for several years, whilst we have been promoted a couple of times (albeit gone back down again!)

They are (in my view) a well run financially, club. And are sustainable at this level. I think if they got promoted to league1 and were not able to flog a player for big money, they would probably come back down rather quickly, losing £ as they do.



Exeter has a population of 129,000 whereas Northampton has a population of nearly double that so has a far grater catchment area and therefore potential.
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« Reply #30330 on: November 25, 2021, 14:19:30 pm »

Not sure about that. Exeter has only one other league club within 80 miles.

Not sure how much an 80 mile radius from Northampton would extend but probably south Yorkshire to Cambridge to all of London and all of the West Midlands.
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« Reply #30331 on: November 25, 2021, 14:24:01 pm »

Not sure about that. Exeter has only one other league club within 80 miles.

Not sure how much an 80 mile radius from Northampton would extend but probably south Yorkshire to Cambridge to all of London and all of the West Midlands.

and what is the population within that area, let alone those that actively go to games?

Exeter have been making improvements to their ground over recent years and don't have big debt. So if they have a big land deal or sell another player for good money, they are in a good position. They are making slow, steady progress and building for the medium term.

Meanwhile at Sixfields, any income generally is used to pay off our previous managers, coaching staff and players.
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« Reply #30332 on: November 25, 2021, 14:30:48 pm »

Thanks for digging that out. I posted something similar ages ago but couldn't find it the last time someone cited Exeter as a financial success story. I seem to remember they had been in the black for a few years but when you looked at the numbers they were still losing a good chunk of cash each year but it was being offset by dipping into the funds they received  from selling a player for some serious money.

I'm not knocking them, fair play to them, they've clearly done well in the transfer market but you can't base your operating model around selling a really good player every few years.  Yes, of course you can invest in upcoming players and tie them up to long term deals hoping they come good (a la Chesterfield with Tshimanga) and if it pays off everyone pats you on the back and applauds a superb bit of business, but if they do their ACL three games in and never play for you again you look an absolute mug and are financially screwed. There's a massive element of luck involved in that sort of thing,  especially at our sort of level.

so is a model of loan players, sacking managers and their staff every year a better strategy then? 

Luck?  well it's a case of.. the harder you work, the luckier you become. Obviously player investment is a risk at every level. Personally I would be happy to see a massive investment into the youth / younger player set up and play them in games, even if it meant we would be not getting promoted immediately. I know that the player pathway thing (sorry forgot it's name) is a major headache in developing players at our level but something has to change if we are ever to be established in L1.



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« Reply #30333 on: November 25, 2021, 14:49:12 pm »

Probably because we all squeal like slit piglets if we have signed 22 Ronaldos  by July 1st every summer…..
I know some clubs get lucky with getting it right…. We have occasionally.
However, not spending and being successful on the pitch rarely go hand in hand do they?
Spend…. Why are we in debt?
Don’t spend…. Owners are milking the fans.
Success…. Why aren’t we spending our extra cash?
Failure….. we bought the wrong players, sack the manager….. more cost and so it goes on.

That's probably the most salient points in a nutshell.
You can imagine the absolute sh*t storm if say we sold a player for £5m and then reported a profit of £4m and weren't winning the league by 10 points.

There is a general expectation (I'm sure not exclusive to the Cobblers) that cash in the bank should be re-invested almost immediately into the playing budget...and TBH I understand that, which is why I never get excited around the transfer fees we receive, it makes little difference most of the time, apart from losing our best players.
I can remember being gutted losing Richard Hill for £250k (or whatever it was) because we'd lost someone who had just banged in 30 odd goals after one of the best seasons ever. I can't really remember benefitting from the £250k as a fan. Maybe we had a good year on paper, woopy doo.

The biggest kicker is that we have seen very little in terms of on/off the field improvement despite the millions we are in the red to the owners.

In terms of the surrounding population points, I agree with TFAMH. It will take years to create some kind of footballing hotbed. The Saints didn't attract 15,000 over night and even then we may have well been labelled more as a 'rugby town', although I don't recall that as a kid. Demographics and history play a huge part in an areas culture, hence why you don't get rugby league down south but it's huge up north. Northamptonshire is full of misfits from out of London, abroad and country folk. It's not born and bred potential Cobblers fanatics, no more so than down the road in MK.

We can cling onto the Wembley 90's but that was a different time, the daily Chron, first ever trips to Wembley, Sixfields was still in its relative infancy etc. We saw how that panned out and the difference with the Bradford game years later.

So much has got to change before I believe we can attract real interest and buzz and we have never been further from it since the 1,500 crowds of the early 80's, although generally (and thankfully) we tend not to be battling it out at the bottom of Div 4.
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« Reply #30334 on: November 25, 2021, 15:00:35 pm »

There will come a time when Exeter don't have the transfer income, the run of transfers won't continue forever.

And they haven't made it out of League 2 for sometime.
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« Reply #30335 on: November 25, 2021, 15:29:28 pm »

Probably because we all squeal like slit piglets if we havent signed 22 Ronaldos  by July 1st every summer…..
I know some clubs get lucky with getting it right…. We have occasionally.
However, not spending and being successful on the pitch rarely go hand in hand do they?
Spend…. Why are we in debt?
Don’t spend…. Owners are milking the fans.
Success…. Why aren’t we spending our extra cash?
Failure….. we bought the wrong players, sack the manager….. more cost and so it goes on.
I don't think any amount of squealing would change the clubs budget but a little more transparency and less B/S might win the minds of the more vociferous and critical fans.
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« Reply #30336 on: November 25, 2021, 15:30:35 pm »

Not sure about that. Exeter has only one other league club within 80 miles.

Not sure how much an 80 mile radius from Northampton would extend but probably south Yorkshire to Cambridge to all of London and all of the West Midlands.
Grin 80 mile radius would mostly be fields and sea not sure of you point, you seem confused.
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« Reply #30337 on: November 25, 2021, 15:31:17 pm »

There will come a time when Exeter don't have the transfer income, the run of transfers won't continue forever.

And they haven't made it out of League 2 for sometime.
That can’t be right….
According to Beds, if you have an atmospheric professional ground which is capable of hosting league one football, you’ll be an instant success!
 Grin Grin
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« Reply #30338 on: November 25, 2021, 16:21:09 pm »

Not sure about that. Exeter has only one other league club within 80 miles.

Not sure how much an 80 mile radius from Northampton would extend but probably south Yorkshire to Cambridge to all of London and all of the West Midlands.

That's a naughty and largely meaningless geographical stat Pedjy  Grin
If you are going 40 miles east you are getting closer to Bristol and Bournemouth. It's a bit like saying that Aberystwyth is a potential sleeping footballing hotbed with little competition.
They are more into pasty's and clotted cream down there.

To support your point though, that is why I never buy our catchment argument. We have Leicester, Villa, Coventry, Watford, Oxford, P*sh, MK, Brum, Nottingham, Luton, North London...all an hour or less depending where you live in Northants. It would be generally interesting to know how many people regularly follow other teams who live in the county, because you can effectively cross them off. For example, my brother travels to Anfield.
You have to draw them in when they are kids and find a way to keep them coming back, which is difficult at our level.
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« Reply #30339 on: November 25, 2021, 17:03:47 pm »

so is a model of loan players, sacking managers and their staff every year a better strategy then? 

I don't like loan players myself, but in fairness we only have 2 loan players at the moment - Etete who we couldn't afford to sign and Revan who is someone I see as a "proper" use of the loan system; bought in to cover for injuries.

The sacking managers part is a rather different issue. Personally, I think all the sackings have been justified. How long do you leave it?  Until we're relegated or until the crowds stop coming or both? It's a difficult balance to strike between the cost of paying them off or the potential cost of not sacking them. Of course, the answer is to hire the right manager in the first place, but if we had the magic formula for that to sell to other clubs we wouldn't need to worry about redevelopment to make us better off! How many managers have Man U got through since Fergie left?


Luck?  well it's a case of.. the harder you work, the luckier you become. Obviously player investment is a risk at every level. Personally I would be happy to see a massive investment into the youth / younger player set up and play them in games, even if it meant we would be not getting promoted immediately. I know that the player pathway thing (sorry forgot it's name) is a major headache in developing players at our level but something has to change if we are ever to be established in L1.

Wouldn't disagree, but this carries its own risk - as you say as a lower league club there's always the EPPP allows clubs higher up the pyramid to pilfer any prospects at a fraction of their worth.


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