Redevelopment Closer Than Ever?

[singcobb]

I dont want to embarrass you by pointing out had we played a league one season this year or last, ticket sales from the visiting fans and the extra home supporters attracted to games against Sunderland,  Ipswich,  Charlton, Oxford Posh, and a handful of others would exceed the current availability by over 10 to 15000 lost ticket sales , that is more than £300,000 income lost that our club can not keep losing out on. For me, this is the difference between playing in L1 or L2, the over all losses from tv, league affiliation, extra sales on food and beverages, sponsorship and being able to attract more investment... do the math, £700,000 per season lost due to the want of a paltry 3000 extra capacity and the ability to play out of L2!
And that is why I'm not scared to defend the future of my Football club.
I fully accept on pitch fortune's can fluctuate but its imperative that we switch the amount of seasons spent in L2 for ones in L1, then watch us grow.
These past 20 years of outsider speculators fighting the council over land has got to stop for the sake of our clubs future...

And still no answers. The only person who is being embaressed is you.

[singcobb]

No but extra income most certainly does, yes there's always relegation that's football but playing seven seasons to 1 in L2 is because of poor infrastructure is plain daft.

How the fúck does extra income guarantee league one football? Going by your model the likes of Ipswich and Sunderland shouldn't be in League One because of their income.

Oh and you still haven't answered my questions despite me making it easy for you by hi-lighting them.

[BedsCobb]

How the fúck does extra income guarantee league one football? Going by your model the likes of Ipswich and Sunderland shouldn't be in League One because of their income.

Oh and you still haven't answered my questions despite me making it easy for you by hi-lighting them.

And where have I said it does, it most certainly helps being able to sign better players or retain your best ones than having to scrape the barrel,  but as we both agree in football there are ups and downs  and that is why we love it.
We just need to have many more ups than downs.

[BedsCobb]

Even a premier league club has problems filling their ground.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/50722548

Being able to maximise potential earnings by having spare capacity in order to satisfy demand when needed has absolutely nothing to do with 'selling out every seat for every game'
Now go and mull that over.

[1971cobbler]

Being able to maximise potential earnings by having spare capacity in order to satisfy demand when needed has absolutely nothing to do with 'selling out every seat for every game'
Now go and mull that over.

So that's where we are at then?

My view,  if I were the top man / decision maker;

Until we are consistently at 90% of capacity on attendance, development wouldn't be on the agenda.

I would have the plans drawn up, along with approximate costs and timescales, but I would not make those public. That's my two-penneth.

[guest3338]

So that's where we are at then?

My view,  if I were the top man / decision maker;

Until we are consistently at 90% of capacity on attendance, development wouldn't be on the agenda.

I would have the plans drawn up, along with approximate costs and timescales, but I would not make those public. That's my two-penneth.

If you had committed to completing the east stand development when you took on the club and the council are correct in saying that there is now nothing from preventing you from doing that, would you have those plans drawn up and might you then be tempted into implementing them on the understanding that is the key to a greater financial return for yourself your partners and the club, or would you continue hold out to third parties for even greater leverage and profit?

[GrangeParkCobbler]

I know Beds keeps going on about adding capacity and the amount of money we could be losing out on....what he seems to be forgetting is that the money needed to expand capacity and install boxes etc still needs to be spent.
If we are £5.5m ‘in debt’ already, he seems to be advocating spending another £3m now on top of that in the hope that it will repay itself over time.
How long would it take to repay itself? Years and years....I can see why KT is doing nothing at the moment either, because it’s not financially worthwhile in the short term.....

Not sticking up for him, the stand and boxes should have been done and finished by now, as all we have at the moment is £5.5m of directors loans and a half empty shell of a stand to show for it.

The ‘promises’ that were made at the beginning were not kept, however now that particular ship has sailed. So we are stuck in the position where nothing is happening. Hopefully we are breaking even, the loan account is not growing any further, and we are having a modicum of success on the pitch.

[1971cobbler]

If you had committed to completing the east stand development when you took on the club and the council are correct in saying that there is now nothing from preventing you from doing that, would you have those plans drawn up and might you then be tempted into implementing them on the understanding that is the key to a greater financial return for yourself your partners and the club, or would you continue hold out to third parties for even greater leverage and profit?

Difficult one to answer that as a supporter of 30 plus years. As a fan, definitely do the development if the funds were still there to do so.

From a business point of view, the latter.

[1971cobbler]

I know Beds keeps going on about adding capacity and the amount of money we could be losing out on....what he seems to be forgetting is that the money needed to expand capacity and install boxes etc still needs to be spent.
If we are £5.5m ‘in debt’ already, he seems to be advocating spending another £3m now on top of that in the hope that it will repay itself over time.
How long would it take to repay itself? Years and years....I can see why KT is doing nothing at the moment either, because it’s not financially worthwhile in the short term.....

Not sticking up for him, the stand and boxes should have been done and finished by now, as all we have at the moment is £5.5m of directors loans and a half empty shell of a stand to show for it.

The ‘promises’ that were made at the beginning were not kept, however now that particular ship has sailed. So we are stuck in the position where nothing is happening. Hopefully we are breaking even, the loan account is not growing any further, and we are having a modicum of success on the pitch.

+1

[Another Pedj]

If he bulds the stand the Loan account wll increase to circa £8M. This will mean it will be even more disfficult to sell the club. You can argue it will be  an asset but it will be to his taste and not necessarily any potential buyer.

In addition,the owners almost certainly redcognise that if they wish to sell then they are unlikely to recover all £5M. At best it will be on a deferred basis. Why then would they worsten their position?

[Melbourne Cobbler]

If he bulds the stand the Loan account wll increase to circa £8M. This will mean it will be even more disfficult to sell the club. You can argue it will be  an asset but it will be to his taste and not necessarily any potential buyer.

In addition,the owners almost certainly redcognise that if they wish to sell then they are unlikely to recover all £5M. At best it will be on a deferred basis. Why then would they worsten their position?

There is no obligation to clear the loan account when you buy a business. As a result there is absolutely no financial incentive in developing the stand at this point in time. Thats just the way it is from a financial, and only a financial perspective. Others will obviously state otherwise.

[BedsCobb]

So that's where we are at then?

My view,  if I were the top man / decision maker;

Until we are consistently at 90% of capacity on attendance, development wouldn't be on the agenda.

I would have the plans drawn up, along with approximate costs and timescales, but I would not make those public. That's my two-penneth.

So games against the top 7 L1 teams that would sell another 15000 tickets over the season is in your eyes worth sacrificing and just be happy with small attendances against Morecambe forest green and Crawley as a L2 side?
Do you think those who run the show at Posh, Oxford,  MK Brentford, Watford Luton would agree with your running of a league club with a 300,000 catchment?
No they wouldn't!
If you dont build up the infrastructure, the club stands still or in our case goes backwards.

[EB Claret]

So games against the top 7 L1 teams that would sell another 15000 tickets over the season is in your eyes worth sacrificing and just be happy with small attendances against Morecambe forest green and Crawley as a L2 side?
Do you think those who run the show at Posh, Oxford,  MK Brentford, Watford Luton would agree with your running of a league club with a 300,000 catchment?
No they wouldn't!
If you dont build up the infrastructure, the club stands still or in our case goes backwards.

It's the chicken and the egg argument isn't it? Do you develop the team to establish yourselves in league 1 or develop the stadium first to hopefully increase income to build a team to reach league 1? Both methods can work. KT & Co. undeniably invested in the playing side to try to establish us in League 1 under RP, JE and JFH. Sadly it didn't work and we were relegated. Having spent out once the club owners are now, understandably, reluctant to do so again, even trying the other method. So at the moment we are where we are, hoping Keith Curle can manage a low budget promotion, we are the Cobblers this is the norm.

League 1 here we come!

[CobblerForever]

If Beds is claiming we lose 15,000 ticket sales per annum he is really saying we are losing something in the order of £300,000 per annum (assuming a gross ticket price of £24 with no concessions (£20 net of VAT). There will also be additional costs and revenues arising from this but let's say these additional items even themselves out.

The cost of redeveloping the East Stand = £4 million.

Rate of return 7.5% pa

Big Problem - we need a better paid side to get us into L1 (normally) and if we don't raise wages (management and players) we lose the very reason for our original promotion.

The additional costs (higher pay) would vastly exceed the £300k additional revenue.

Conclusion = Investment in new stand almost certainly a failure in financial terms.


PS The 300,000 catchment area point is flawed in so much as we have in Northampton a uniquely well regarded Rugby Union side that is very well supported by a significant number of the potential supporters in this 300,000 figure.

[Coolcat]

So games against the top 7 L1 teams that would sell another 15000 tickets over the season is in your eyes worth sacrificing and just be happy with small attendances against Morecambe forest green and Crawley as a L2 side?
Do you think those who run the show at Posh, Oxford,  MK Brentford, Watford Luton would agree with your running of a league club with a 300,000 catchment?
No they wouldn't!
If you dont build up the infrastructure, the club stands still or in our case goes backwards.

If you're talking owners building up the infrastructure, stands to suit the catchment area (or otherwise)...can we omit Oxford from your list of examples? 

[1971cobbler]

So games against the top 7 L1 teams that would sell another 15000 tickets over the season is in your eyes worth sacrificing and just be happy with small attendances against Morecambe forest green and Crawley as a L2 side?
Do you think those who run the show at Posh, Oxford,  MK Brentford, Watford Luton would agree with your running of a league club with a 300,000 catchment?
No they wouldn't!
If you dont build up the infrastructure, the club stands still or in our case goes backwards.

Personally, I would look to add a tier on the south stand only, and only after two seasons have been successfully negotiated in L1.

[guest48]

Hang on lads, such massive clubs as Stevenage and Barnet have managed to build reasonably impressive new stands, so it's within our capability surely ?

[singcobb]

Personally, I would look to add a tier on the south stand only, and only after two seasons have been successfully negotiated in L1.

Not a bad idea.

[singcobb]

Hang on lads, such massive clubs as Stevenage and Barnet have managed to build reasonably impressive new stands, so it's within our capability surely ?

Barnet. Mmmmm... Capacity 6,500 and will be very lucky if they average 1,200 over the season.
Stevenage. Capacity 6,722 and managing an average of 2,476.
So Bed's theory of if you build it they will come doesn't seem to play out.

[Terryfenwickatemyhamster]

Hang on lads, such massive clubs as Stevenage and Barnet have managed to build reasonably impressive new stands, so it's within our capability surely ?

Your sarcasm ignores one very important point.

Barnet  and Stevenage both have what we would like. An exceptionally rich chairman, who has to spend a lot of money on something or lose the money elsewhere. Hence the whole community angle of it all..

I could be very wrong. But Barnet has a very Rushden & Diamonds feel about it all.