Twenty games to go

[Deepcut Cobbler]

Based on the last four seasons the amount of points required coincidentally varies in line with the points totals of the top three:
 
2013 Top 3: 83-78    Barnet    51
2012 Top 3: 93-84    Hereford 44
2011 Top 3: 86-80    Lincoln    47
2010 Top 3: 93-82    Grimsby  44

So if the top 3 have higher points totals, the less is needed to survive....

Unfortunately the 2009 season blows this out of the water:   
2009 Top 3: 85-78 Chester 37

Although 2008 endorses it:
2008 Top 3: 97-88 Mansfield 42

You can do anything with stats....

Does this help? 

[John]

Well we've only got 3 months to wait to find who is right. 

[DrillingCobbler]

The 3rd Bottom placed team is currently shooting at 48 points. A week ago it was 51.

Who knows?!

[boca negra cake]

The first thing that we need to do is to win a game and then win another and a third would be nice, a run of good form something that all teams have at some point of the season and we must be due one. How long that run of form goes on for will determine our fate.

[Coolcat]

If/when we score next week, got to be "The Great Escape" instead of glad all over. 

If you'd been at Cheltenham yesterday...you'd never want to hear that choon ever again! 

[Coolcat]

The way some of you lot are massaging stats...a relocation to Thailand might be a good career move! 

[j20cobbler]

This century the points needed to finish 1 point outside the bottom two have varied between 38-52. Only twice have 50+ been needed, 2005/6 and last season. The average is 46. So, we need 24pts to equal the average or 30 points to be sure from our last 20 games.

To get there I'm going:

Wins (all home): Bristol Rovers, Bury, Hartlepool, Mansfield, Plymouth, Portsmouth & Wimbledon = 21 points.
Draws: Burton, Oxford, Rochdale, Southend (all home) & Accrington, Cheltenham, Morecambe, Torquay, & Wycombe (all away) = 9 points
Defeats: (all away) Dagenham, Exeter, Fleetwood & S****horpe.

Now for me, that's do able and whilst we wont win all those home games I'm sure we could turn some of the draws into victories and in all likelihood we wont need 52 points.

So despite the table presently looking bleak, I'm still optimistic we can beat the drop.

Marvo, on the occasions plus 50 points were needed to stay up this century, do you now how many points the 22nd placed team had after 26 games? It would be interesting to know.
Can't help thinking this is going to be another plus 50 required. Maybe even a record 53 

[John]

I'm not 100% sure what you're after but here goes....

In 2005-6 when Oxford were relegated with 49 pts they had after 26 games 32 pts.
Three teams finished 3 pts clear of Oxford on 52 pts, so 2 pts to spare.
After 26 games they had 22pts (Stockport), 36pts (Notts County) & 23pts (Torquay).

Last season Barnet were relegated with 51pts. After 26 games they had 23pts.
Dagenham escaped on goal difference, they had 34pts after 26 games. Plymouth finished on 1 point more, they had 24pts after 26 games.

To finish on a positive note, last season on 9th March the bottom two sides were Accrington & Plymouth, neither of which were relegated.

[Bingers]

To finish on a positive note, last season on 9th March the bottom two sides were Accrington & Plymouth, neither of which were relegated.

That is what I want to hear.

[j20cobbler]

I was wondering how many points 22nd place has had at this time of the season in previous years. I know 22nd rarely stays 22nd but it would give an indication of what has been needed before to rise off the bottom and therefore how many points we might also need. Let's hope Barnet don't set the president.
(But I'm also aware statistics prove little)

[defender]

That is what I want to hear.

    Music to my ears!

[Saint Cobbler]

Well j20 I don't think the 'president' is interested, 'precedent' maybe. Back to the statistices though, I think you may be disappointed by the number of points previous teams finishing 22nd had at this stage of the season. Many relegated teams probably had quite a few and then dropped like a stone. On the other hand, we have already dropped like a stone and want to rise like my old gran's Yorkshire pud. 

[GrangeParkCobbler]

This time last season there were only 2 points serperating the bottom 5, and 4 points seperating the bottom 6 with then a 5 point gap to Wycombe. Barnet and Aldershot (the relegated teams) were both 2 points off the bottom at this time. Aldershot were the worst performing team picking up 19 points from their final 18 games, not good enough to save them. Dagenham were the team that fell like a stone, they only got 14 points and stayed up on goal difference.

Back in 11/12, after 27 games we were bottom of the league! Level on points with Dagenham and a point behind Plymouth. Worth pointing out that although we did spend a fair amount of time at the bottom that season we were never more than 3 points from safety.

In 10/11 at a comparable time of the season just one point seperated the bottom 5 teams (Lincoln and Stockport were amongst them and both went down).

You have to go back to 2009/10 to find a team adrift at this stage of the season.....Darlington were that team! 9 points behind Grimsby, who themselves were 5 points adrift of 22nd place Cheltenham......Darlington and Grimsby were the teams to drop!

[j20cobbler]

When I was at junior school we used to have to sit a five word spelling test first thing every morning. I was always the last to turn up for class and regularly missed it. I'm still the same now, regularly ambling through the turnstile right on 3pm. I'm also for the progressive development of language/grammar through the wrtten vernacular as I've stated on here before .....
But hey, on this occasion I just got it wrong. Whoops.
Back to the stats, Yeh I'm afraid I've also thought we've been set for the drop for sometime. I'm sure CW will do a very competent job medium term, he may even get us promoted back into the league If we do go down and I'm sure he's comfortable with the prospect of conference football even if it does mean losing a largish bonus (will he be on a survival bonus?). If we had appointed him immediately AB had been sacked I'd have been a lot happier and more confident of survival though.
As for Obama, I've heard he keeps an eye out for our result every Saturday afternoon just before five, I believe he gets final score via satellite.......
'English Chelsea fan this is your last game (hey) we're not Galatasary we are Sparta FC (hey)'

[John]

Just looked back at the original one of these threads and we're still bang on target for the 52 points. Weird thing is, according to the list there are only four more wins needed from the last 12 games!

This century the points needed to finish 1 point outside the bottom two have varied between 38-52. Only twice have 50+ been needed, 2005/6 and last season. The average is 46. So, we need 24pts to equal the average or 30 points to be sure from our last 20 games.

To get there I'm going:

Wins (all home): Bristol Rovers (0-0) -2, Bury, Hartlepool (2-0), Mansfield, Plymouth (0-2) -3, Portsmouth & Wimbledon = 21 points.
Draws: Burton, Oxford, Rochdale, Southend (2-1) +2 (all home) & Accrington, Cheltenham (1-1), Morecambe, Torquay (2-1) +2, & Wycombe (all away) = 9 points
Defeats: (all away) Dagenham, Exeter, Fleetwood (0-2) & S****horpe (1-1) +1.

Now for me, that's do able and whilst we wont win all those home games I'm sure we could turn some of the draws into victories and in all likelihood we wont need 52 points.

So despite the table presently looking bleak, I'm still optimistic we can beat the drop.

[John]

This century the points needed to finish 1 point outside the bottom two have varied between 38-52. Only twice have 50+ been needed, 2005/6 and last season. The average is 46. So, we need 24pts to equal the average or 30 points to be sure from our last 20 games.

To get there I'm going:

Wins (all home): Bristol Rovers (-2), Bury (-3), Hartlepool, Mansfield (-2), Plymouth (-3), Portsmouth & Wimbledon (-2)= 21 points.
Draws: Burton (=2), Oxford, Rochdale (-1), Southend (+2) (all home) & Accrington (+2) , Cheltenham, Morecambe, Torquay (+2) , & Wycombe (all away) = 9 points
Defeats: (all away) Dagenham, Exeter (+3) , Fleetwood & S****horpe (+1) .

Now for me, that's do able and whilst we wont win all those home games I'm sure we could turn some of the draws into victories and in all likelihood we wont need 52 points.

So despite the table presently looking bleak, I'm still optimistic we can beat the drop.

I just looked back on this and was surprised to see we're only 3 points down on the original target, things have felt much worse than that. If we were to beat Burton we'd actually only be a point awry.  Keep the faith.

[Saint Cobbler]

Seeing as 3rd bottom already have 46 points with 5 games to go I don't think it takes too much imagination to realise that 50 plus is essential to stay up, probably 55 plus.

[DuncanSpeddingsLeftFoot]

52 to stay up in my opinion. 9 needed, maybe 10 with our goal difference.

[Saint Cobbler]

52 to stay up in my opinion. 9 needed, maybe 10 with our goal difference.

So you reckon Wycombe will only get 5 points then from their last 5 games, or other teams even less? Sounds a tad optimistic to me.

[DuncanSpeddingsLeftFoot]

So you reckon Wycombe will only get 5 points then from their last 5 games, or other teams even less? Sounds a tad optimistic to me.

No, I reckon Morecambe will massively struggle to get more than 3 points in their final 5 games. Look at their run in, look at it!